Imminent and severe market correction

[Sean K]

Yes I seem to have underestimated the fragile emotions of the delicate flowers on the forum who react more to what they see as insults than to any productive arguments.

Once again, going the man.

 

[dhukka]

We're in a bull market for a reason. But obviously that's past performance...

OK, still don't see what it had to do with the preceding discussion though.

 

[greggy]

OK, still don't see what it had to do with the preceding discussion though.

Dhukka, this discussion is fast becoming very pointless. Besides I don't understand the relevance of your love for flowers. Treat the mods with respect.

 

[dhukka]

Dhukka, this discussion is fast becoming very pointless. Besides I don't understand the relevance of your love for flowers. Treat the mods with respect.

Sorry greggy, I''m a bit slow I still don't understand how kennas' point about the market being in a long term uptrend pertains to the preceding discussion.

Actually I do like flowers very much, they are pretty little things don't you think?

As for mods, they deserve the same respect as anyone else on the forum, no more, no less

 

[greggy]

Sorry greggy, I''m a bit slow I still don't understand how kennas' point about the market being in a long term uptrend pertains to the preceding discussion.

Actually I do like flowers very much, they are pretty little things don't you think?

As for mods, they deserve the same respect as anyone else on the forum, no more, no less

I often buy flowers for my wife. The mods do a great job on this forum. I feel that Kennas' point is relevant.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

If the spike in base metal prices o/night is an indication of the undervaluing of metals, we are in for a rally the mining sector. If this does not lead to a continued bull market for the All Ordinaries/Australian market then I will be very suprised. Bears can hibernate and miss the ride if they want but its spring in Australia. We do not have to constantly look to the US for a lead, it's a world economy and it's growing steadily overall, any correction now will simply be a rock on the bullock track, I'm back on the bull.

There is a misconception by the look of some posts that seems to think that to post some comments that are not 'bullish' then the poster is automatically 'labeled' as a bear or bearish. This little black 'bear' did all right yesterday so I'm hardly missing the ride, let alone hibernating.

As far as the US goes (and depending on how the contagion pans out in a number of other countries as well, eg Britain), you would have to admit they have some structural problems that are not going to be fixed with a 50 bp cut in interest rates. In fact it could be making the situation even worse.

At the same time I am still very positive on the outlook for Aus shares in general going for a ride on the back of the commodities spike (at least the top 500 or so, the rest of the market has just died? where's the volume??), until & unless China catches the cold as well (which may start to get interesting soon because of the latest news re inflation and market exuberance).

If you think the US will come out of this bigger and better then please post your reasons why - so to at least balance things up a bit?

These are not ordinary times, perhaps we are witnessing once in a generation events unfolding, so be prepared when extraordinary things happen.

 

[Nicks]

The crux of the post was that here was obviously a very successful fund manager taking a fairly decisive stance due to fundamentals of the US housing market, which cannot be glossed over by vested interests - it's a timebomb ready to explode with global implications.
I agree with Canaussieuck about the market 'feel', it just doesn't feel right. We are becoming used to daily ranges of up to 50 to 60 points, whipsawing on every bit of news.
On Monday the market tanked because of interest rate fears, Tuesday took the opposite view, Wednesday traded on the fact, so now we have 4 weeks leading to an even higher probability of an increase.
Great for daytraders, but may be hiding a deeper message about global liquidity excesses about to be reigned in in spectacular fashion maybe.

Nizar, I agree also, but I don't have investments anymore, I only do short term trades, the rest in cash. Maybe predict is not the best description, rather trying to ascertain if the global economy is getting better or worse based on the latest data and trends. To me it's turning, only the time scale is unknown.

Interesting reading this now Uncle. Can you please tell me what this weekends X Lotto numbers will be please, thank you in advance (though I bet you already knew that).

 

[Nicks]

If the spike in base metal prices o/night is an indication of the undervaluing of metals, we are in for a rally the mining sector. If this does not lead to a continued bull market for the All Ordinaries/Australian market then I will be very suprised. Bears can hibernate and miss the ride if they want but its spring in Australia. We do not have to constantly look to the US for a lead, it's a world economy and it's growing steadily overall, any correction now will simply be a rock on the bullock track, I'm back on the bull.

I agree 100% doogie, but the unfortunate problem is that we do!! ('constantly look to the US for a lead')

 

[sassa]

These are not ordinary times so be prepared when extraordinary things happen.

Uncle Festivus,
An ominous thought from David Callaway,editor-in-chief,of MarketWatch about extraordinary things that can happen-

We've been downplaying this crisis for far too long. It's fine to celebrate the rally in stocks over the past few days. But let's not forget that most of Wall Street still has one hand on the sell button.

 

[greggy]

Uncle Festivus,
An ominous thought from David Callaway,editor-in-chief,of MarketWatch about extraordinary things that can happen-

We've been downplaying this crisis for far too long. It's fine to celebrate the rally in stocks over the past few days. But let's not forget that most of Wall Street still has one hand on the sell button.

Isn't it amazing how bull markets often climb over a wall of worry. When many of the so-called are overly worried markets often seem to move in the opposite direction. I remember when I was a teenager my father told me that "you can't go wrong with the long-term strategy of buying quality stocks at reasonable prices." My strategy hasn't changed since.
DYOR

 

[Porper]

Uncle Festivus,
An ominous thought from David Callaway,editor-in-chief,of MarketWatch about extraordinary things that can happen-

We've been downplaying this crisis for far too long. It's fine to celebrate the rally in stocks over the past few days. But let's not forget that most of Wall Street still has one hand on the sell button.

New all time highs and still all the doom and gloom.

It is irrelevant what the market may do due to the state of the US economy, the credit crisis or anything else, what is relevant is what the markets are telling us.

There is no denying we are in a super bull market, until price action tells us otherwise we should ALL be making money.

Waiting for a "severe and imminent correction" may have some waiting a long time.

I too paid to much attention to the perceived serious financial crisis bandwagon, bear market blah blah, all we have done is miss out on almost 15% rise very quickly.

The market may well crash at any time, but it sure doesn't appear that way at the moment.

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Isn't it amazing how bull markets often climb over a wall of worry. When many of the so-called are overly worried markets often seem to move in the opposite direction. I remember when I was a teenager my father told me that "you can't go wrong with the long-term strategy of buying quality stocks at reasonable prices." My strategy hasn't changed since.
DYOR

sorry to be a wet blanket but we need to also look at what is really happening.

BHP and the miners are such a major part of the market right now.

Take away that report in BHP and would we have rallied in the last two days like we have? again look at the report it's self, is it complete fact? It's speculation.

Since BHP then RIO really started to fire, i noticed the buyers moved into those two and then the rest of the market very quickly it's only takes a couple brave ducks to cross the road to convince the rest its safe to cross.

I am not doubting the move but you need to look at what it's made up of yes we are at recored highs but there are other factors that suggest this is playing to a script.

Interesting times.

Good Trading.

 

[Kimosabi]

New all time highs and still all the doom and gloom.

It is irrelevant what the market may do due to the state of the US economy, the credit crisis or anything else, what is relevant is what the markets are telling us.

There is no denying we are in a super bull market, until price action tells us otherwise we should ALL be making money.

Waiting for a "severe and imminent correction" may have some waiting a long time.

I too paid to much attention to the perceived serious financial crisis bandwagon, bear market blah blah, all we have done is miss out on almost 15% rise very quickly.

The market may well crash at any time, but it sure doesn't appear that way at the moment.

We have just had a break in the clouds before the REAL Storm kicks in...

 

[sassa]

sorry to be a wet blanket but we need to also look at what is really happening.

BHP and the miners are such a major part of the market right now.

Take away that report in BHP and would we have rallied in the last two days like we have?

Agree.Be interesting to see what BHP's report is tomorrow in regards to the gold find in S.A.Talk is that commodity prices to be renegotiated with China will increase by at least 25%.And then,in the meantime,if global demand for commodities falls because of the effects of the credit crunch yet to be felt.Well.......

 

[Porper]

We have just had a break in the clouds before the REAL Storm kicks in...

Yes, we have been having this storm for a long time now, May, Feb & July just to mention the last few.

I think the argument for a bear market is wearing a bit thin.

Just to put it in perspective the all ords was below 3000 in 2003, so just a swift 140% rise up to today.Even if we have a crash of mega proportion the Bulls will still be way ahead.

Not that I am a Bull, I am neutral but the Bear argument just hasn't materialised , even though we try and talk ourselves into it.

 

[bean]

Yes, we have been having this storm for a long time now, May, Feb & July just to mention the last few.

I think the argument for a bear market is wearing a bit thin.

Just to put it in perspective the all ords was below 3000 in 2003, so just a swift 140% rise up to today.Even if we have a crash of mega proportion the Bulls will still be way ahead.

Not that I am a Bull, I am neutral but the Bear argument just hasn't materialised , even though we try and talk ourselves into it.

The argument for a bear market grows each day. The financial crisis in the markets is only going to get worse.
To have the FED lower interest rates when the US in a BULL and has a small correction.
Doesn't that tell you something?
Everything is not rosey.

You had a 140% rise it only takes 50% and you have lost it.

A correction will come to the 'US' then follow through on to world markets.
Its fine investing and riding the BULL but must be wary.

Like tonight will the US/DOW rise 250 points or will it drop 250 points?

If it drops does that mean the BEAR is sneaking back?

 

[sassa]

The financial crisis in the markets is only going to get worse.

Much worse if the IMF report is correct.Bernanke said that the fallout of the sub-prime was $100b.The IMF says that it is double that-$200b.

 

[Porper]

The argument for a bear market grows each day.
Everything is not rosey.


A correction will come to the 'US' then follow through on to world markets.

Well, you are right there, a correction will come...................eventually.

I dare say you will all say I told you so as well.

Trouble is, how much of the rise will you miss out on ? 1%, 100%.

Maybe best to just go along with the market rather than predict where the US economy is.

 

[wayneL]

Well, you are right there, a correction will come...................eventually.

I dare say you will all say I told you so as well.

Trouble is, how much of the rise will you miss out on ? 1%, 100%.

Maybe best to just go along with the market rather than predict where the US economy is.

How about both?

Agree it's foolish not to trade where the momentum is, but I still think it's a good idea to keep an eye on the big picture.

 

[Porper]

How about both?

Agree it's foolish not to trade where the momentum is, but I still think it's a good idea to keep an eye on the big picture.

Totally agree Wayne, but some people seem obsessed either bullish or bearish, doesn't really matter.I am sure we have all at some point leant to far one way, I know I have, don't mind admitting it, I've lost plenty trying to short the market but really the recent bull run has been unstoppable.As we all know markets often react very differently to how we expect.

Sure the US is in trouble down the line, but the markets aren't confirming this with negative price action, infact quite the opposite.

All I am saying is look at what is happening now -, even with all the perceived problems.