Imminent and severe market correction

[explod]

Why the US is deteriorating into a recession. Word Inflation spiralling out of controll. World wide housing and financial crisis I haven't mentioned everything and the list is growing by the day.

The DOW may well rise another two or three days. 'So what' reality will hit and when it does don't say you weren't warned.

Agree with you Bean but you are usually the one following the lead from day to day fluctuations of the US market.

Yes the bull out of Wall Street just allows more of the smart money to reposition so as to take it off the mugs. We will see in a few more days how it pans out.

 

[lusk]

Agree with you Bean but you are usually the one following the lead from day to day fluctuations of the US market.

Yes the bull out of Wall Street just allows more of the smart money to reposition so as to take it off the mugs. We will see in a few more days how it pans out.

Sounds like another conspiracy theory is the PPT involved?

Just because you think that its all coming to an end because you've read it somewhere doesn't mean it will. It may go up to new highs it may turn and head down soon, who knows, who cares! Just follow the trend thats all you can do or else you will miss alot of opportunities.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

What are you blokes going to do in a bear market?Tell everyone how things are going great and a bull run is just around the corner....lol


p.s. now would be a good time to pick up some cheap houses.

Well with the Dow potentially up again do you know what its time for all you bear market rampers to do now? Its time to stand up and say:

WRONG AGAIN.

Oh, whats that.........tomorrow night did you say.

Yes, wrong again. All back to normal - what was I thinking!

 

[Sean K]

Yes, wrong again. All back to normal - what was I thinking!

LOL.

I do wonder if we'll find a way out of this mess....however:

I always come back to the fundamental reason why this situation has perhaps eventuated and I think it might be human behavior. It's why Communism will never work. It's why we have fences around our houses, and buy expensive jewelry, buy the latest fashion, or mobile that does exactly the same thing as the last one but is 1 oz lighter. Human's!

 

[dhukka]

Well with the Dow potentially up again do you know what its time for all you bear market rampers to do now? Its time to stand up and say:

WRONG AGAIN.

Oh, whats that.........tomorrow night did you say.

What a ridiculous statement. Your argument consists of this: Bears are wrong because the DOW went up last night. Not even the most bearish of investors would have expected anything less than a stockmarket rally after the Fed cut rates.

To summarize the bearish arguments consist of something like this: Given the slowing momentum on a number of fronts in the US economy (housing, employment, consumer spending, corporate profits) bears believe the balance of risks to be on the downside. That doesn't mean they expect the DOW to start going down tomorrow. Nor does it make them wrong if it doesn't. Nor does it make bulls right. Again, daily fluctuations are short term noise.

The S&P 500 closed at 1,276.05 on January 2nd, 2001. The Fed cut rates 50bps on Jan 3rd. The S&P 500 closed at 1,347.56, up 5.6% for the day. Then the market started to sell off, falling almost 20% by March. That doesn't mean history will repeat but it is worth noting that the only other time in recent memory that the Fed started a rate cutting cycle with 50 bps the economy went into recession and the markets fell considerably.

Ask yourself why the Fed cut rates. Is it because of a positive economic environment? What is the case for the bullish story? There are cogent arguments to put forward for the continuation of the bull but the observation that the DOW went up last night or will go up tonight based on what the futures market is forecasting is not one of them.

 

[Porper]

Agree with you Bean but you are usually the one following the lead from day to day fluctuations of the US market.

Yes the bull out of Wall Street just allows more of the smart money to reposition so as to take it off the mugs. We will see in a few more days how it pans out.

With all the doom and gloom from everybody maybe we should be aware who is taking who for a clown ?

The consensus seems to be that the smart money is selling into the latest good news.

Just maybe they are buying from all the people with the doom and gloom outlook.

 

[greggy]

For the moment at least this thread is looking a bit outdated. We've had 2 siginificant corrections this year and everytime the doomsayers have been saying that this is the end of the bullmarket. Well guess what, the corrections will only lengthen this bull market IMO. When the market fell to the mid 5,000 mark earlier this year I predicted will hit 7,000 points sometime this year. I'm still hoping it will.
DYOR

 

[explod]

With all the doom and gloom from everybody maybe we should be aware who is taking who for a clown ?

The consensus seems to be that the smart money is selling into the latest good news.

Just maybe they are buying from all the people with the doom and gloom outlook.

No way, I reckon the doom and gloom money were out long ago. In fact I am very optomistic on certain invetsments, just THINK the Dow overvalued

 

[dhukka]

For the moment at least this thread is looking a bit outdated. We've had 2 siginificant corrections this year and everytime the doomsayers have been saying that this is the end of the bullmarket.

On the contrary we haven't had any significant corrections this year, we had a mild one in August. Who were the doomsayers that called an end to the bullmarket? Do you have links, names, dates?

Well guess what, the corrections will only lengthen this bull market IMO. When the market fell to the mid 5,000 mark earlier this year I predicted will hit 7,000 points sometime this year. I'm still hoping it will. DYOR

To summarise your argument: because the market has rallied after 2 minor corrections this year it will continue to rally. The market will rally to 7,000 points sometime this year based on your hope that it will. :bonk:

 

[greggy]

On the contrary we haven't had any significant corrections this year, we had a mild one in August. Who were the doomsayers that called an end to the bullmarket? Do you have links, names, dates?

To summarise your argument: because the market has rallied after 2 minor corrections this year it will continue to rally. The market will rally to 7,000 points sometime this year based on your hope that it will. :bonk:

Lighten up a bit dhukka. Its only a prediction and you must say not the worst one at the time. Many in the media were quick to scare many investors and call up pessimists. As for links, names, dates etc I'm not a member of the FBI. The correcion in Aug 07 was around 15% from its high to the bottom. If you take a look at the spec end of the market its still largely in the doldrums.
It also seems that you like to pick a few fights, so why not take up boxing?
DYOR

 

[Sean K]

On the contrary we haven't had any significant corrections this year, we had a mild one in August.

Mild correction? More than 12% is fairly significant isn't it? 6-8% is a 'mild' correction perhaps.

To summarise your argument: because the market has rallied after 2 minor corrections this year it will continue to rally. The market will rally to 7,000 points sometime this year based on your hope that it will. :bonk:

If we've had a 'significant' correction, then this point may not be valid.


Unfortunately, I can not do a semi-log chart, because I am an amateur, but it still looks to be trending up to me. While it's still above the 200d ma, I believe that means it's trending up......to be corrected of course.

 

[greggy]

Mild correction? More than 12% is fairly significant isn't it? 6-8% is a 'mild' correction perhaps.

If we've had a 'significant' correction, then this point may not be valid.


Unfortunately, I can not do a semi-log chart, because I am an amateur, but it still looks to be trending up to me. While it's still above the 200d ma, I believe that means it's trending up......to be corrected of course.

Hi Kennas,

Nice chart there as always. I hope you haven't been infected by the "alien virus" over there. Besides the significant correction in Aug we also had a mild one earlier this year.
DYOR

 

[dhukka]

Lighten up a bit dhukka. Its only a prediction and you must say not the worst one at the time. Many in the media were quick to scare many investors and call up pessimists. As for links, names, dates etc I'm not a member of the FBI. The correcion in Aug 07 was around 15% from its high to the bottom. If you take a look at the spec end of the market its still largely in the doldrums.
It also seems that you like to pick a few fights, so why not take up boxing?
DYOR

Greggy, I regularly pound the boxing bag at the local gym but also like to take a few shots at hollow posts with nothing to back them up. A 15% correction significant. Don't know about that, I'll concede it was more than minor maybe moderate would be a better word?

It is only a prediction but a prediction based on what?

 

[dhukka]

Mild correction? More than 12% is fairly significant isn't it? 6-8% is a 'mild' correction perhaps.

As above 15% significant, depends who you talk to. The bottom was an intra-day dip that lasted an about hour before recovering a good deal.

Unfortunately, I can not do a semi-log chart, because I am an amateur, but it still looks to be trending up to me. While it's still above the 200d ma, I believe that means it's trending up......to be corrected of course.

Yes the long term trend still seems to be in place. The point of this information is?

 

[greggy]

Greggy, I regularly pound the boxing bag at the local gym but also like to take a few shots at hollow posts with nothing to back them up. A 15% correction significant. Don't know about that, I'll concede it was more than minor maybe moderate would be a better word?

It is only a prediction but a prediction based on what?

Dhukka, so you reckon my post was hollow, how nice of you to have added me to the list of people you've insulted. Its indeed been a growing list. To do so you probably think that you're better than the rest of us.
At the time of my prediction many people were panicking. I felt that the economy was in good shape and that the mining boom would continue to strenthen. The market is trading on reasonable multiples and that when positive market sentiment returns that the bull market would continue to strengthen.
DYOR

 

[sassa]

do you know what its time for all you bear market rampers to do now? Its time to stand up and say:

WRONG AGAIN.

You are so right at the moment-it is time for the bear rampers to stand up and say WRONG AGAIN.But only FOR THE MOMENT.
Not many people want to mention or talk about the spiralling devaluation of the dollar and the huge effects it is going to have on the markets.It seems devaluing is not in any economist's or banker's vocabulary.
While a devalued dollar has some positives for the country,the negatives far outweigh them with the main one being inflation which will be imported.
This is happening at the moment and the best example is oil prices.Other contributors may wish to comment on this and the effects it can have on the stock market as well as the fleeing of investors away from the dollar to the Euro instead of buying U.S.treasuries.
The Fed has lowered interest rates to free up money markets but not those associated with mortgages.
The theory is that people will borrow to buy cars,white goods etc thus upping employment and stimulating the economy.This should stop recession.
But the housing sector is another story-banks,financial institutions have put the brakes on.So this very important part of the employment sector falters across many related industries.Unemployment up and we all know what happens then.
So I am prepared to say wrong again for the moment and will get back in 2 months time when the $50b.mortgage resets have started to have their downpull on the economy.

 

[doogie_goes_off]

If the spike in base metal prices o/night is an indication of the undervaluing of metals, we are in for a rally the mining sector. If this does not lead to a continued bull market for the All Ordinaries/Australian market then I will be very suprised. Bears can hibernate and miss the ride if they want but its spring in Australia. We do not have to constantly look to the US for a lead, it's a world economy and it's growing steadily overall, any correction now will simply be a rock on the bullock track, I'm back on the bull.

 

[dhukka]

Dhukka, so you reckon my post was hollow, how nice of you to have added me to the list of people you've insulted. Its indeed been a growing list. To do so you probably think that you're better than the rest of us.

Yes I seem to have underestimated the fragile emotions of the delicate flowers on the forum who react more to what they see as insults than to any productive arguments.

At the time of my prediction many people were panicking. I felt that the economy was in good shape and that the mining boom would continue to strenthen. The market is trading on reasonable multiples and that when positive market sentiment returns that the bull market would continue to strengthen.

Thanks for this, this is what I'd call a decent line of argument with evidence to back it up, wasn't so hard was it?

 

[Sean K]

Yes the long term trend still seems to be in place. The point of this information is?

We're in a bull market for a reason. But obviously that's past performance...

 

[greggy]

Yes I seem to have underestimated the fragile emotions of the delicate flowers on the forum who react more to what they see as insults than to any productive arguments.



Thanks for this, this is what I'd call a decent line of argument with evidence to back it up, wasn't so hard was it?

Hey Dhukka, you've gone from talking about boxing to talking about flowers. Does that make you a florist? Your sarcastic tone is a bit of a worry and you're definitely a teaser, but I'll just laugh it off, just as other forum members have.