Imminent and severe market correction

Sean K · 7 January 2009

MrBurns said:
I look at whats happened so far and stand back and try to see the big picture, mass unemployment is already underway, less profits mean less staff, less home loans taken out less profits for banks less staff and around it goes, the reports of planned redundances and sacking emerging now is horrendous.
Alcoa just announced 13,500 jobs to go worldwide.
This is just snowballing and I dont believe that any sort of Govt intervention will change the ultimate result.

I see all this and I know that the sumami will reach us next year ( ummm this year) and I really cant justify diving into shares yet.

This is exactly my point MrB. You may have already factored in the worst. You are factoring in next year's bad news. Others may be even less optomistic. By the time people are bullish again the bottom will have long long gone with possibly with many potential profits left wanting. I'm alreading kicking myself for missing potential gains.

Of course, we may all not be factoring in the worst. eeeeek!

Odds on this is just a little bear bounce though, but a good opportunity nonetheless.

MrBurns · 7 January 2009

kennas said:
This is exactly my point MrB. You may have already factored in the worst.

I still have a gut feel this may turn very nasty..... more nasty.
For one thing just imagine the tax implications for US citizens and us for that matter supporting the bailout billions.

Yes I'm a fence sitter, as far as shares are concerned, for the time being anyway.

The only thing I would buy are some classes of property because that's what I know and I guess thats the difference....... you know shares I dont, you have to deal in what you know in this environment.

nunthewiser · 7 January 2009

Personally think we due for at least one more severe downleg before this correction through , BUT in the meantime this lil duck trading my superknickers off

Uncle Barry · 7 January 2009

Good afternoon,
If I may add,

My thinking is along the lines of Mr Buffetts ideas,

'When people are greedy be fearful,
When people are fearful, be greedy."

Now this approach seems to work, as long as you are not operating on borrowed funds.

It has worked for me for about ..over 20years, so far.

I also add another of Mr Buffest's ideas, that is,
to buy a stock that you can keep for 10years --- if you need to.

So when things go sour, now today as in the past, I just look the other way, till the cycle returns. As everything in the market is driven by cycles.

However today, 'things' are not looking too bad,
I have noticed a number of times that some people don't appear to understand the 'market' works in advance of the retail 'things'

BUT
I am still worried about a major correction to come through.
Kind regards,
UB

Kind regards,
UB

TheAbyss · 7 January 2009

nunthewiser said:
Personally think we due for at least one more severe downleg before this correction through , BUT in the meantime this lil duck trading my superknickers off

Based on the amount of breakouts at the moment you are not the lone ranger.

MrBurns said:
I still have a gut feel this may turn very nasty..... more nasty.
For one thing just imagine the tax implications for US citizens and us for that matter supporting the bailout billions.

Yes I'm a fence sitter, as far as shares are concerned, for the time being anyway.

The only thing I would buy are some classes of property because that's what I know and I guess thats the difference....... you know shares I dont, you have to deal in what you know in this environment.

MrBurns, further to Kennas's point the market is a forward looking instrument. If a poll were conducted i think most would agree that we are looking at a short term lift to 4000-4100 is followed by a another down leg and then slow prgression upwards. IMO this is based on the belief that most of the news is out there now so the rally upwards which has been going for a little while.

The next down leg will be on news not yet released and only suspected/expected by very those with more experience than the masses. Concensus there is we will get to around 3100 range.

In for now on just three stocks (STO, AOE and BHP) and ready to take profits at 4000 or 3300 on the downside

IFocus · 7 January 2009

kennas said:
This is exactly my point MrB. You may have already factored in the worst. You are factoring in next year's bad news. Others may be even less optomistic. By the time people are bullish again the bottom will have long long gone with possibly with many potential profits left wanting. I'm alreading kicking myself for missing potential gains.

Of course, we may all not be factoring in the worst. eeeeek!

Odds on this is just a little bear bounce though, but a good opportunity nonetheless.

Reporting season still to come, obvious lower earnings for some which should be priced in but what the consensus of the company outlooks will possibly the next driver for direction up or down.

There seems to be a bit of hope-ium around so maybe a current run up.

roofa · 7 January 2009

I see all this and I know that the sumami will reach us next year ( ummm this year) and I really cant justify diving into shares yet.

I simply do not understand "trading" sufficiently to go there so I just wait........................[/QUOTE]

I watched a program a month or so back were a broker was of the opinion that you will lose more by not getting in than waiting for the market to rise.
Music to my ears as I had started getting into the market in October only to watch it slide after an initial short lived rise. Made purchases each month across 12 stocks and am reasonably happy at the moment being >12% up with 5 black and 7 red.

kransky · 7 January 2009

i have found that apart from loosing my nerve on ADY and selling at 0.9c i have made good profits from buying over the last 3 months...

BMN 85%
BRM 24%
CVN 18%
PDN 44%

Small amounts though unfortunately... i dont have a lot so i cant risk too much in an environment like this...

but the opportunities are there..

now its a matter of picking the right time to get out again... how long will the rally go?

S&P loosing momentum...

Glen48 · 7 January 2009

Of course Mr. Buffet is down 32% so far and rising.
I keep and eye on Patrick.net and see what is going on in USA and other countries, once things turn in USA wait and few yrs and them buy, they started to go down in 05 when we were just starting up and their housing market is getting worse.

roofa · 7 January 2009

kransky said:
i have found that apart from loosing my nerve on ADY and selling at 0.9c i have made good profits from buying over the last 3 months...

BMN 85%
BRM 24%
CVN 18%
PDN 44%

Small amounts though unfortunately... i dont have a lot so i cant risk too much in an environment like this...

but the opportunities are there..

now its a matter of picking the right time to get out again... how long will the rally go?

S&P loosing momentum...

Well done Kransky,

I know one thing for sure, you only have a chance of making something if you get in, imo this would have to be one of the ideal times.

My blacks are;
ANZ
BDL
MGX
MRE
VBA

Can you or anyone recommend software to give me the % rise and fall etc.

Cheers and happy researching.

Uncle Barry · 7 January 2009

Hi G48
Of course Mr. Buffet is down 32% so far and rising.

Negative 32%

AND now to balance the situation,
how far ahead is he ........... ? in dollar terms.

He still holds a lot more dollars than me and will for the remainder of my life,
what about yourself ?

Myself, I try to follow the winners and seek the examples they set.
UB

Glen48 · 7 January 2009

Unca Baz
depends when you ask him, he has dropped a lot on so even he is feeling the pinch.
The market WILL pick up but not for awhile so sit back and watch how a depression unfolds so you can tell your Grand kids not to be a silly as us.

kransky · 7 January 2009

roofa said:
Can you or anyone recommend software to give me the % rise and fall etc.

i use commsec for stocks and under "my portfolio" you can set the purchase price of your holdings. it gives you a % change from purchase each time you look at your portfolio summary.

Trevor_S · 7 January 2009

Glen48 said:
Of course Mr. Buffet is down 32% so far and rising.

in a year, from overheated highs...and he's been down several times before, as he mentions. That happens if you don't bother too much with market timing and stop loss strategies but isn't really a concern as he tends to buy and hold and doesn't use inappropriate leverageing... markets go up and down

Being down from an overheated high is not a bad thing for some of us, the market retreating like it has just gives some of us that have been out of the market for some time the opportunity to acquire more of a decent business at a great price. (as Buffett tells us he is doing as well)

and if we're wrong, at least you guys have someone to sell to

IFocus · 7 January 2009

Gary Shilling's 2009 Predictions: More of the Same Pain

http://leavittbrothers.com/stocks-o...o-his-prediction-the-spx-will-fall-to-600.cfm

One of John Mauldins favorite Economist and consequently also mine Dr. A. Gary Shilling makes his forecast's for 2009.

Shilling make the comments recently how lucky he was that his 2008 forecast was spot on in other words he understands markets.......

Aussiejeff · 8 January 2009

roofa said:
Well done Kransky,

I know one thing for sure, you only have a chance of making something if you get in, imo this would have to be one of the ideal times.

My blacks are;
ANZ
BDL
MGX
MRE
VBA

Can you or anyone recommend software to give me the % rise and fall etc.

Cheers and happy researching.

Hopefully for you they're still black after the next few days...

Glad I've kept some powder dry.

In the meantime, fasten your seatbelts as...

DOWN

WE

GO

.....

roofa · 8 January 2009

Aussiejeff said:
Hopefully for you they're still black after the next few days...

Glad I've kept some powder dry.

In the meantime, fasten your seatbelts as...

DOWN

WE

GO

.....

I do expect a bumpy ride for some time to come AJ, but I will be disappointed if the market returns to 3400 over the next few days. I too have kept some powder dry just in case we need to double down at some point this year.

Sean K · 12 January 2009

Lots of media sprouting about how bad reporting reason is going to be.

Calls of 'blood' on the floor and 'disaster' everywhere.

Even Shane Oliver is calling a top in the market.

Sign that things are on the way up. lol

wayneL · 12 January 2009

kennas said:
Lots of media sprouting about how bad reporting reason is going to be.

Calls of 'blood' on the floor and 'disaster' everywhere.

Even Shane Oliver is calling a top in the market.

Sign that things are on the way up. lol

BUY BUY BUY!!!!!

gfresh · 12 January 2009

:iamwithst was thinking the very same thing today - "prepare for a bloodbath"..blah, blah..

Although today I noticed today a few stocks jumped up a bit.. traditionally the more defensive ones.

Imminent and severe market correction

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