Imminent and severe market correction

[dhukka]

Oops, US non-farm payrolls down -533k in November, the biggest monthly drop in payrolls since December 1974. Revisions were huge, September revised from a loss of -284k to 403k October revised from -240k to -320k.

 

[wayneL]

Thanks Alan, Uncle Ben, et al. You have ensured the most exciting economic period in eighty years is approaching at exhilarating speed.

No eat #### and die!

 

[dhukka]

Great re-reading these threads, you come across some gems like these.

I don't think we've got too much to be worried about sassa.

Full blown recession was never in my calculations and the revised numbers suggest it was not even close. As for stagflation... again I think a misnomer or mis-diagnosis. The problems in the financial sector are self inflicted by poor management. Although the effects flow through to the wider economy to some extent, all the best (government) economic management in the world cannot save bad managers from themselves. In other words the way I see it is this sector will have to evolve it's self dicipline or face continuing forced dynamic restructuring... some of which is coming from tighter regulation.

The property market was over rated up and down as was consumer spending and all will recover. The lynch pin is obviously oil. What I see happening is people are already pretty seriously curbing oil use, eg GM has came out saying it's time to seriously engage in alternative powered vehicles because consumer sentiment has shifted substantially that way, and I would be surprised if congress does not treat oil as a vital resource and severely limit the speculative influence in oil trading.

I still see these types of measures supporting the USD in the medium term, which will benifit our mining industry with better cost to revenue ratios.

 

[chops_a_must]

God damn things are going to get bad...

Can anyone come to terms with the absurdity of Washington in regards to the auto industry?

I mean, they are prepared to pay trillions to bail out rich bankers, yet aren't prepared to stump up a measly 20 billion to save a million jobs. It makes absolutely no friggin sense...

 

[Wysiwyg]

Oops, US non-farm payrolls down -533k in November, the biggest monthly drop in payrolls since December 1974. Revisions were huge, September revised from a loss of -284k to 403k October revised from -240k to -320k.

Noticed the bottoms were at the end of a recession except on one occasion.

 

[dhukka]

Noticed the bottoms were at the end of a recession except on one occasion.

That is to be expected, businesses won't start hiring on mass until the economy starts to turn up, but where is the bottom of this recession? if this is to be the worst post World War II recession as many suggest, then we might only be half way through.

 

[GumbyLearner]

I think the autos are definitely stuffed.

If a bailout would work dont you think they could have raised the money
from private sources by now without having to go cap in hand to the FED.

Obviously theyre getting the bargepole treatment from everyone ATM! Too risky and still selling cars that cost too much to run!

BTW I dont think the banks should have been bailed out either!

:walker:

 

[dhukka]

I think the autos are definitely stuffed.

If a bailout would work dont you think they could have raised the money
from private sources by now without having to go cap in hand to the FED.

Obviously theyre getting the bargepole treatment from everyone ATM! Too risky and still selling cars that cost too much to run!

BTW I dont think the banks should have been bailed out either!

:walker:

I actually think they are going to get some money, with a lot of strings attached. Noone is allowed to fail anymore in the United Socialists of America. Personally I like to see them go into Chapter 11 and restructure, free from all their legacy obligations.

 

[GumbyLearner]

I tend to agree with you Dhukka.

I mean it was only a week or so ago that GM, Ford & Chrysler execs
were flying in a private jets to plea for handouts and yesterday turned up
in "new" hybrids. Wow great PR!

Last time they wanted $25 Bill, yesterday it was $34 Bill and an economist from Moodys at the same meeting said they really need between $80 Bill to $100 Bill. $9 Bill extra in two weeks

All I would say to GM is Tough Luck!

:walker:

 

[chops_a_must]

I actually think they are going to get some money, with a lot of strings attached. Noone is allowed to fail anymore in the United Socialists of America. Personally I like to see them go into Chapter 11 and restructure, free from all their legacy obligations.

That's the obvious solution.

Can't see Obama allowing that with his supporter base and all...

I tend to agree with you Dhukka.

I mean it was only a week or so ago that GM, Ford & Chrysler execs
were flying in a private jets to plea for handouts and yesterday turned up
in "new" hybrids. Wow great PR!

Last time they wanted $25 Bill, yesterday it was $34 Bill and an economist from Moodys at the same meeting said they really need between $80 Bill to $100 Bill. $9 Bill extra in two weeks

All I would say to GM is Tough Luck!

:walker:

It's more complicated than that...

If the auto industry collapses, it will be worse than the great depression. Not only the loss of jobs, but the loss of billions of entitlements that otherwise would have gone into things like property, cars, stocks and so on...

It's also strange why the constraints are put on the auto industry and not the financials. That irks me.

I'm certainly no fan of the auto industry, but I am a fan of common sense. Allowing the auto industry to collapse without a protective structure would be like an act of deliberate self harm. I just don't understand why they are flirting with it.

 

[GumbyLearner]

Allowing the auto industry to collapse without a protective structure would be like an act of deliberate self harm. I just don't understand why they are flirting with it.

It really irks me too Chops.

But remember these same companies have had years of protective structure in the form of tariff barriers in many countries where their factories reside.
As a result, many other manufacturers cars have had to fight above their weight for a long time. And the key is it is cheaper to run an Asian made four cylinder than a six or eight made by a US based manufacturer

Your right it is complicated. But why havent they been able to survive with the assistance of tariffs?

:nosympath

 

[chops_a_must]

Your right it is complicated. But why havent they been able to survive with the assistance of tariffs?

Because deals signed up to decades ago make them massively uncompetitive, regardless.

It really is, among other things, a story of workers bringing down their own company.

 

[GumbyLearner]

It really is, among other things, a story of workers bringing down their own company.

Totally agree with you on that one!:jerry

 

[kransky]

unionised auto workers in the us get US$73/hr.. does it make sense to bail that nonsense out?

 

[Sean K]

Oops, US non-farm payrolls down -533k in November, the biggest monthly drop in payrolls since December 1974. Revisions were huge, September revised from a loss of -284k to 403k October revised from -240k to -320k.

Those spikes down were followed by some decent recoveries in short time, around the end of the recessions.

Question is, does it recover again like that? Or, long term in the abyss...

US recession is one year in, how long to go? 1 year, 5 years? Lots of factors at play I suppose.

Need to start getting rid of the dead wood being propped up by the printng machines and start a fresh, somehow....

 

[Aussiejeff]

Marvellous stuff!

"Wall Street has put an upbeat spin on the government's report that the nation lost more than half a million jobs last month. Stocks reversed early losses to finish sharply higher as the job numbers raise hopes that Washington will again step in to help the economy."

See? There is NO cause for any further pessimism, folks. It is now official - the worse the news gets, the bigger the bounce back will be, BECAUSE THE MORE THE FED WILL FIX IT!!

WHEEE-E-E-E-E-E!

 

[Sean K]

Marvellous stuff!

"Wall Street has put an upbeat spin on the government's report that the nation lost more than half a million jobs last month. Stocks reversed early losses to finish sharply higher as the job numbers raise hopes that Washington will again step in to help the economy."

See? There is NO cause for any further pessimism, folks. It is now official - the worse the news gets, the bigger the bounce back will be, BECAUSE THE MORE THE FED WILL FIX IT!!

WHEEE-E-E-E-E-E!

Jeff, the market is always right. Don't argue.

 

[CAB SAV]

unionised auto workers in the us get US$73/hr.. does it make sense to bail that nonsense out?

and under their generous health plan, they get viagra for free-that's a bit stiff

 

[Aussiejeff]

and under their generous health plan, they get viagra for free-that's a bit stiff

**sniff**

 

[Glen48]

Whats the story with OZ car bail out? Are the taxpayers supporting the floor plans of all the car yards and letting the bank charge the feds for the pleasure?