IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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Imminent and severe market correction
- Thread starter Uncle Festivus
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Glen48
Money can't buy Poverty
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Some are even pushing for the replacement of the US dollar as the world's main reserve currency. Others are primarily aiming at better regulation of the existing system and supervision of financial institutions with global reach. Efforts to create a new reserve currency (Bretton Woods II), are unlikely to be successful, if only because the US is not interested and without US agreement, little can be done. The US has de-facto veto power over the introduction of a new reserve currency system, because it can decline to guarantee an exchange rate between that hypothetical new currency and the vast amount of US dollar denominated financial liabilities already in circulation around the world. A return to the pre-1971 gold standard is not feasible.
The G-20 meeting in Washington later this week is important, but it will at best be the start of a long process. The IMF will almost certainly emerge as a more important multilateral institution than it has been the in the past ten years. In some ways we are back to 1944 when allied financial leaders got together in Bretton Woods New Hampshire to figure out how to deal with the financial and economic devastation left behind by the Second World War. More accurately, we are back to the long period of preparation that preceded the historic 1944 Bretton Woods meeting. China - under the Nationalist government - participated then, it will have a much larger voice in the G-20 meeting later this week. It, along with other major emerging market economies, should also have a much larger voice in the IMF. Globalization has suffered a set-back, but in rearranging the global financial system, we should be careful to protect the principles of free trade and not to throw out the baby with the bath water.
(The author is a senior adjunct professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University.)
The G-20 meeting in Washington later this week is important, but it will at best be the start of a long process. The IMF will almost certainly emerge as a more important multilateral institution than it has been the in the past ten years. In some ways we are back to 1944 when allied financial leaders got together in Bretton Woods New Hampshire to figure out how to deal with the financial and economic devastation left behind by the Second World War. More accurately, we are back to the long period of preparation that preceded the historic 1944 Bretton Woods meeting. China - under the Nationalist government - participated then, it will have a much larger voice in the G-20 meeting later this week. It, along with other major emerging market economies, should also have a much larger voice in the IMF. Globalization has suffered a set-back, but in rearranging the global financial system, we should be careful to protect the principles of free trade and not to throw out the baby with the bath water.
(The author is a senior adjunct professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University.)
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Oh dear. Yet another RED sunrise in the Land of Oz.....
Japan finally capitulates and announces "R" word.
Not unsurprisingly following that auspicious announcement,
Our financials today - hammered (CBA now almost down to $30! graph looks a tad nasty)
Our materials today - hammered
Our ... almost everything - hammered
All Ords 3,500 coming right up (down to 3615 ATM)? Is that a triple crown Bull Trap from mid-Oct to mid Nov?
Japan finally capitulates and announces "R" word.
Not unsurprisingly following that auspicious announcement,
Our financials today - hammered (CBA now almost down to $30! graph looks a tad nasty)
Our materials today - hammered
Our ... almost everything - hammered
All Ords 3,500 coming right up (down to 3615 ATM)? Is that a triple crown Bull Trap from mid-Oct to mid Nov?
Attachments
And about bleeding time! I've been calling bank shares to crash since Feb -- what have they been levitating on? Fair value for banks going forward is whatever produces a dividend yield above the bank bill rate. For CBA that's under $30. If they cut dividends, it's less.
All Ords: do us a favour! The main target is 3200-3400 from 2003-04. Should get there before Xmas. The bad news is building the US again. Should be another wave of the tsunami along any time now.
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
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Some big deflationary numbers out...
I would like to read the words of Dhukka on the matter.
I would like to read the words of Dhukka on the matter.
I wrote this back on January 23rd.
I've never understood the inflation scare that everyone was hammering on about even as late as July this year both here and in the US. You had most mainstream economists in the US saying that the Fed would have to raise interest rates to combat it. I read a research report by Suncorp in August that was forecasting RBA rate hikes into 2009. How could they not see what was coming?
A massive debt bubble that artifically propped up all asset classes just could not be sustained. I said here many times over the last 15 months that Fed rate cuts would not work in such an environment and today's data confirms that the Fed, despite all it's liquidity ventures is going to have a tough time preventing deflation. However they will pull out all the stops. Bernanke is a student of the great depression and deflation is his biggest nightmare.
However, we don't need to get too excited about inflation just yet as the good old Keynesian liquidity trap is playing out. The trick will be once the US economy gets going again to see how quickly the Fed drains the stimulus out of the economy. If they do not mop up excess liquidity then inflation could become a problem but that certainly isn't the problem we have right now.
I think the hyperinflation scenario is the one piece of Peter Schiff's thesis that he has wrong, at least in the medium term.
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
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Thanks for that Dhukka old boy.
I know it's been your main concern/ condition outlook, which is why I wanted your opinion.
Certainly with gold failing at its last try, it has been my confirmed view also - as well as the markets evidently.
The interesting thing though, is it is almost universally the concern about some kind of inflation down the track, the question of when is the biggest problem though...
If it becomes a drawn out deflation, it could get really bad. As even defensive companies in staples and so forth will have negative earnings - more so than what would be expected.
I know it's been your main concern/ condition outlook, which is why I wanted your opinion.
Certainly with gold failing at its last try, it has been my confirmed view also - as well as the markets evidently.
The interesting thing though, is it is almost universally the concern about some kind of inflation down the track, the question of when is the biggest problem though...
If it becomes a drawn out deflation, it could get really bad. As even defensive companies in staples and so forth will have negative earnings - more so than what would be expected.
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You just KNOW the Oz economy is going down when RBA Head Honcho Stevens starts beseeching the media and consumers to not think about the unspeakable "R" thingy or we might just get what we wished for.
What a load of tripe. That is the same swill spouted by the Bush administration a month ago. "Think positive and it will all go away". That signals to me the RBA is entering panic mode.
Really, was Steven's purposefully fed Magik Mushrooms before his speech yesterday? He appeared to rather like the sound of his own "soothing" voice. Far from restoring "confidence" in our economy, Blind Freddie can see right through him. If anything, "confidence" will now slip further as he obviously can't be trusted to face up to the task ahead.
Wanka.
IMO of course....
aj
What a load of tripe. That is the same swill spouted by the Bush administration a month ago. "Think positive and it will all go away". That signals to me the RBA is entering panic mode.
Really, was Steven's purposefully fed Magik Mushrooms before his speech yesterday? He appeared to rather like the sound of his own "soothing" voice. Far from restoring "confidence" in our economy, Blind Freddie can see right through him. If anything, "confidence" will now slip further as he obviously can't be trusted to face up to the task ahead.
Wanka.
IMO of course....
aj
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Oh, n-i-i-i-ce finish to the DOW last night.
Bring out the SPECIAL BIG RED carpet for the ASX opening, boys. It's party time....
Sorry Mr Stevens.
I fergot to write "I must not think about the R-word" a thousand times, as you suggested.
P.S. Your Lil' Ozzie Bleeder just sunk below the 64c mark - AGAIN. You must be asleep at the wheel... LOL
Bring out the SPECIAL BIG RED carpet for the ASX opening, boys. It's party time....
Sorry Mr Stevens.
I fergot to write "I must not think about the R-word" a thousand times, as you suggested.
P.S. Your Lil' Ozzie Bleeder just sunk below the 64c mark - AGAIN. You must be asleep at the wheel... LOL
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Dow finished down 427.5 points at 7997.28 ( big worries that the Federal Reserve will not be able to bail out the troubled Auto industry).
Mining stocks, in London, were hit with losses up to 18%, Vedanta down 16%, Kazakhyms down 18%, Lonmin down 13%, Xstrata down 12%, Anglo American down 7%, BHP down 7%, Rio Tinto down 9%.
Mining stocks, in London, were hit with losses up to 18%, Vedanta down 16%, Kazakhyms down 18%, Lonmin down 13%, Xstrata down 12%, Anglo American down 7%, BHP down 7%, Rio Tinto down 9%.
Futures pointing to another 4% down today. Another few weeks of this and we might rid ourselves of the cowboys jumping in after any bit of good news for the quick bounce back up to 7000 
Might even get back to the days when share prices were stable for weeks and months only really moved materially in relation to fundamentals like actual results and forecasts.
Might even get back to the days when share prices were stable for weeks and months only really moved materially in relation to fundamentals like actual results and forecasts.
Kipp
Lord of the Ledgers
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What is frustrating to me is that the excuse I hear time and time again to another days of Neg 400pts on the Dow is, "recession fears".
Surely noooone is any doubt that US (and indeed the majority of the world) is already IN recession.
So, I would like different market commentary to justify another bloody day for the ASX or Dow... why not take a cosmological perspective? "The All Ords fell anther 4.2% today, wiping out another $300 Billion off the value of the sharemarket. Investors confidence plummeted as Venus is in retrograde, with the vernal equinox approaching".
Surely noooone is any doubt that US (and indeed the majority of the world) is already IN recession.
So, I would like different market commentary to justify another bloody day for the ASX or Dow... why not take a cosmological perspective? "The All Ords fell anther 4.2% today, wiping out another $300 Billion off the value of the sharemarket. Investors confidence plummeted as Venus is in retrograde, with the vernal equinox approaching".
I think people are suspicious of Citi Bank. It is going down quickly. This might be the biggest causality of this crisis.
Here is a chart:
http://finance.google.com/finance?c...et=1227136928828&chddm=121887&q=NYSE:C&ntsp=0
Here is a chart:
http://finance.google.com/finance?c...et=1227136928828&chddm=121887&q=NYSE:C&ntsp=0
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Spin, spin, spin.....
That's all these World Financial Crisis "managers" have got left....
Enjoy the ride.
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
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Well... GM down over 30%... Ford 16%...
I must have been one of the few to ever have made money going long on GM this year.
I must have been one of the few to ever have made money going long on GM this year.
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...and still the mining stocks tumble as investors go for cash in London. BHP down 9%, RIO down 10.5%, Vedanta down 12%, Xstrata down 11.5%, Anglo down 7%, Kazakyms down 10%, Lonmin down 1.5%.
The severely tanking Aussie$0.62 (reverse AU$1.6162) against the US$1, is eroding confidence in Aus.
The severely tanking Aussie$0.62 (reverse AU$1.6162) against the US$1, is eroding confidence in Aus.
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Did America have a public holiday yesterday so I'm looking at the -5%+ from the day before? But no...... The dow's down another 5% Thursday.
AUD/US is at 61.4/$1-
At least if there are any Australian manufactures left they will find they are now very competitive.
Imports out of China and Taiwan are purchased in USD's.
Perhaps some inflation there coming!
AUD/US is at 61.4/$1-
At least if there are any Australian manufactures left they will find they are now very competitive.
Imports out of China and Taiwan are purchased in USD's.
Perhaps some inflation there coming!
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Unless GM are bailed I think the capitulation in the US will continue, even then any recovery may be only short lived.
What happened on Wall St last night was proof that it will go down regardless of intervention on any level.
Capitulation hasn't started here .......yet. correct me if I'm wrong.
Just think, a few weeks ago we were talking on a completely different level, the worst of predictions have now actually come true, who knows where we'll be a few weeks from now.
What happened on Wall St last night was proof that it will go down regardless of intervention on any level.
Capitulation hasn't started here .......yet. correct me if I'm wrong.
Just think, a few weeks ago we were talking on a completely different level, the worst of predictions have now actually come true, who knows where we'll be a few weeks from now.
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