Ichimoku discussion thread

[Andruha]

Here is the interesting one...Arco would you be able to provide your feedback on that one.

M30 on USDCAD does not look promising at all. Although I can observe KS/TS X and Chikou span is bullish, kumo sentiment is still bearish. However, on 4H chart the price just broke above bearish kumo and bullish kumo is forming. Am I missing something here? Perhaps I should wait for candle on 4H to close to get in....

My entry was at 1.0503 with SL @ 1.0476. Now I'm hoping for a long term trade here with price going to 50% fib of 1.0959-1.0205 decline. However I do have a feeling that SL is rather tight for such long position. Any comment?

And lastly (I hope you don't mind me picking your brain - but I do find Ichimoku rather fascinating topic ) if say on 4H TM you have a clear bearish sentiment would you still trade long on lower TM say M30 or 1H?

Cheers

 

[Kryzz]

So would ichimoku people have taken a short with the Aussie, because there was a kenjun/tenkan cross (although its a weak one because it was above the kumo?), but there was a kumo breakout to the short side? Or is discretion still needed, as the AUD is in a ridiculous uptrend atm? I also find this method of trading interesting.

 

[Andruha]

So would ichimoku people have taken a short with the Aussie, because there was a kenjun/tenkan cross (although its a weak one because it was above the kumo?), but there was a kumo breakout to the short side? Or is discretion still needed, as the AUD is in a ridiculous uptrend atm? I also find this method of trading interesting.

Looks good. The direction seems to be right. The only thing that I can note is that although you do have a KS/TS X and Chikou span is also lower, the kumo cloud sentiment in the future is turning bullish. So not all the signals align

 

[Andruha]

Looks good. The direction seems to be right. The only thing that I can note is that although you do have a KS/TS X and Chikou span is also lower, the kumo cloud sentiment in the future is turning bullish. So not all the signals align

One more thing that I forgot to mention about the Aussie. I actually start to pay more attention to previous Chikou span turning points. Drawing a horizontal line through them can (not necesseraly will) act as a resistance/support point. So I generally wait for the price (if it is in proximity) to pierce through the line before going ahead.

On the example with Aussie, there are two turning points in green line very close to each other at around 0.92. So that could be a turning point for the currency.

My looney trade did not worked out last neither - got stopped out. I think for the longer positions 20 - 40 pips stop loss is rather tight. Probably need to double it.

 

[arco]

Here is the interesting one...Arco would you be able to provide your feedback on that one.

M30 on USDCAD does not look promising at all. Although I can observe KS/TS X and Chikou span is bullish, kumo sentiment is still bearish. However, on 4H chart the price just broke above bearish kumo and bullish kumo is forming. Am I missing something here? Perhaps I should wait for candle on 4H to close to get in....

My entry was at 1.0503 with SL @ 1.0476. Now I'm hoping for a long term trade here with price going to 50% fib of 1.0959-1.0205 decline. However I do have a feeling that SL is rather tight for such long position. Any comment?

And lastly (I hope you don't mind me picking your brain - but I do find Ichimoku rather fascinating topic ) if say on 4H TM you have a clear bearish sentiment would you still trade long on lower TM say M30 or 1H?

Cheers

30m Loonie
Low TF - good for scalping, or you can take a portion off and leave some to run when other TFs are bullish.



Re the last question.

As with any system one TF chart can be bearish the other TF bullish, so check all TFs to find general direction/s.

Weigh up signals on all TFs to get an overall picture of s/r, crossovers, etc. Take trades in any direction as per the TF you are trading but be conscious of any opposing trends on the other TF. Smaller TFs can often mean scalping or smaller profits. When all charts line up bullish (or bearish), that direction can be much more fruitful.

i.e. Loonie Daily 1300+ pips

 

[arco]

One more thing that I forgot to mention about the Aussie. I actually start to pay more attention to previous Chikou span turning points. Drawing a horizontal line through them can (not necesseraly will) act as a resistance/support point. So I generally wait for the price (if it is in proximity) to pierce through the line before going ahead.

On the example with Aussie, there are two turning points in green line very close to each other at around 0.92. So that could be a turning point for the currency.

My looney trade did not worked out last neither - got stopped out. I think for the longer positions 20 - 40 pips stop loss is rather tight. Probably need to double it.

Well spotted. Lots of people get confused by Chikou Span.
Because it prints the price plot 26 periods back it automatically shows S/R (closing price).

arco

 

[cashflow_08]

Nice to see you guys having success with Ichimoku.
Whats the current success rate with it? cheers

 

[arco]

Nice to see you guys having success with Ichimoku.
Whats the current success rate with it? cheers

Success rate would probably be dependant on experience. I've been studying Ichimoku for around 8 years and have a very high success rate. Like any system you have to spend 100's of hours studying charts and the various TFs to see how they interact with each other, etc. That way you get a real feel for the way the Ichimoku system works. I have even translated various Japanese Ichimoku documents trying to get additional information not available in English language.

arco

 

[Andruha]

Nice to see you guys having success with Ichimoku.
Whats the current success rate with it? cheers

Success rate would probably be dependant on experience. I've been studying Ichimoku for around 8 years and have a very high success rate. Like any system you have to spend 100's of hours studying charts and the various TFs to see how they interact with each other, etc. That way you get a real feel for the way the Ichimoku system works. I have even translated various Japanese Ichimoku documents trying to get additional information not available in English language.

arco

Well mine are not that good. I'll probably be around low 30% if not higher 20%. But I do agree with arco - it is all in the practice. I Ichimoku a very easy system to understand, but unfortunately my timings for entry and exists are rather poor at the moment (you could say noob ). It is hard to watch every move at work - I'm sitting right next to the boss. So I do miss a fare bit of signals and by the time I'm in - its too late.

But as of late I've realised that success in this game does not come easy - just like in anything there are hours of practice required. I'll keep posting though since arco is kindly sharing his experience and provides valuable feedback on Ichimoku :

Dre

 

[Andruha]

Well after not so successfully last week I've started the week on the positive note. Traded Cable for a 40 pip profit so far and still holding on to that position - although I'm still not happy with the set up.

The one that I want to share with Ichi people around the forum is the 1H set up on EUR/JPY. My entry was just past the blue line @ 136.76. I had a bad luck with this one early on today - got stopped out -23 pips. But I got in now with SL above weekly PP @ 137.08. My first target is at 136.44 or daily S1. Let's see how it goes

 

[Kryzz]

I'm gonna keep an eye on the euro see if it breaks the kumo for a short, broke out of a trend channel thats been in place since the beginning of the month, due for a retrace.

 

[arco]

Hi Friends

Apologies, didnt get around to posting this yesterday. I did post it on elsewhere.

Hopefully it will give you some understanding of my Ichi thoughts...........

Chikou has broken through on the H4 and is likely to test the plot from below.
PA is surfing the H4 Kumo at the moment and it is likely to tease the upper edge as it is
drawn towards KS. A reversal at the edge could see the plot going for a Senkou B test
break. Looking at ahead Kumo there is a narrow band forming which could be an ideal place
to allow a re-break higher. An up-trend line awaits below as potential support.

The Senkou A edge holds the golden key.



UPDATE

 

[Andruha]

Well after not so successfully last week I've started the week on the positive note. Traded Cable for a 40 pip profit so far and still holding on to that position - although I'm still not happy with the set up.

The one that I want to share with Ichi people around the forum is the 1H set up on EUR/JPY. My entry was just past the blue line @ 136.76. I had a bad luck with this one early on today - got stopped out -23 pips. But I got in now with SL above weekly PP @ 137.08. My first target is at 136.44 or daily S1. Let's see how it goes

Funny enough but I've actually closed that trade as I did not like the way it went. I though it will reach SL so I acted before it did (red arrow shows where I actually abandoned position). The first picture below shows you how the price actually went....I guess I should hold trades for longer if I want to see any kind of returns

I'm gonna keep an eye on the euro see if it breaks the kumo for a short, broke out of a trend channel thats been in place since the beginning of the month, due for a retrace.

Good one Shaunkris

I actually took that trade today in the morning without waiting for it to breach the Chikou span resistance...I is premature and if I get out of it I will be lucky...It did actually broke Senkou Span B so...

The last graph is EUR/CAD 1H. It look similar to that set up of EUR/USD in the sense it just broke through its bullish kumo and the kumo sentiment is shifting. Although it is still yet to break through the Chikou span resistance. So still waiting on it.

 

[Andruha]

Hi Friends

Apologies, didnt get around to posting this yesterday. I did post it on elsewhere.

Hopefully it will give you some understanding of my Ichi thoughts...........

Chikou has broken through on the H4 and is likely to test the plot from below.
PA is surfing the H4 Kumo at the moment and it is likely to tease the upper edge as it is
drawn towards KS. A reversal at the edge could see the plot going for a Senkou B test
break. Looking at ahead Kumo there is a narrow band forming which could be an ideal place
to allow a re-break higher. An up-trend line awaits below as potential support.

The Senkou A edge holds the golden key.



UPDATE

So has anyone taken that trade? I guess I was lucky at the end - the news in US overnight turned out pretty good so my position in EUR/USD is +85 pips with half position closed at 55 pips.

I'm also in trade for NZD/JPY (although before I went in I should've checked the correlation between the two pairs as I effectively doubled up) which also goes nicely at +120 pips with 61 pips already locked .

There is another pair that showed some good Ichimoku entry in my opinion - AUD/JPY - the graph is below. Anyone took it?

 

[Andruha]

Hi all,

It looks like GBP/JPY develops into a nice trend if it can break out of kumo clound on 4H chart. There are a few obstacles on its way of course - mainly 50% fib level from previous uptrend as well as that pesky rising trend line. Still there are about good 65 pips in between the Senkou span B and the 50%...

The amount of trades on 4H charts overnight is mind blowing! I've looked this morning and saw so many opportunities that came to fruition! And all of them made at least 100 pips each so far. Any of Ichimoku people taken any trades in?

Cheers

 

[kingie_d]

Combine Ichimoku with support & resistance on higher TFs or range breakouts (same concept), and you get very good results. eg If you're looking for a reversal off r/s (on higher TF) then use Ichi as confirmation for safer entries & exits and ride a good part of the trend. Same goes for breakouts - should have Ichi signals

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Have you guys heard of Ockhams Razor.
Basically the simpler the solution the better the results.
Ichi all seems very complicated.
I stick to bars or candles and volume, with support and resistance, and fibonnaci targets.
I'm not saying you are wrong but its very complicated.

gg

 

[arco]

Have you guys heard of Ockhams Razor.
Basically the simpler the solution the better the results.
Ichi all seems very complicated.
I stick to bars or candles and volume, with support and resistance, and fibonnaci targets.
I'm not saying you are wrong but its very complicated.

gg

gg

Its like anything it takes time to understand. I've been studying it for around 8 years (and trading for much longer)

Friday night trade

 

[arco]

Hi all,

Any of Ichimoku people taken any trades in?

Cheers

I had 3 good ones for about 500 pips.

EY, Cable and Loonie

Heres Cable. EY - see previous post. (Loonie was +162)

 

[Andruha]

gg

Its like anything it takes time to understand. I've been studying it for around 8 years (and trading for much longer)

Friday night trade

Hi Arco,

Can I ask you a quick question - why do you colour yellow the cross between price and chickou span? Do this provide an indication of shifting momentum?