HZN - Horizon Oil

[bux2000]

Hi Tech here goes,

Background

I have been holding a small amount of ATS since my initial purchase 28/03/2020 @ .012c added to 31/03/2020 @ .014c and again 16/06/2020 @.033c.
I also hold CVN which I entered 1/09/2020 @ .195c

I have also taken a position in COE recently 30/09/2020 @ .26c a position to backup my October stock .........I just hope it doesn't now come under the spell of the dreaded "commentators curse"

All these charts appear to be looking similar enjoying a recent uplift so it seemed logical to look for another opportunity within that sector.

Because I am not skilled enough to have developed a trading system, this leads me to ask is it better to take one larger position within a sector or spread the risk within that sector? Obviously one position is easier to manage.

To this trade

I took this position after seeing HZN appeared to be lagging behind similar Companies in the sector as outlined above but shaping up to be a similar chart.

I accessed the risk for this trade as low (acceptable) with an entry at .098c and an exit with a stop loss set at .094c

I should add I set the Stop loss at .094c and not .095 the upper support level, because I have been taken out of trades previously when the trade bounces of that support. I hope that makes sense.

I would certainly appreciate any feedback and always appreciate the help I am given. Also I certainly didn't include any of my positions above to gloat but only to give a background for my reasoning.

Thanks

bux

 

[qldfrog]

That is an interesting trade gentlemen.
I am also interested in the key decision used to enter and set these milestone prices
FWIW, i do not have your clues, and do mostly systematic trading.
HZN was bought yesterday via my systems so statistically a potential good entry per my criteria..as did quite a few energy sector players.
In the sea of red we have in NY this early morning, oil is up 2% so not too bad a choice it seems now...

 

[qldfrog]

That is an interesting trade gentlemen.
I am also interested in the key decision used to enter and set these milestone prices
FWIW, i do not have your clues, and do mostly systematic trading.
HZN was bought yesterday via my systems so statistically a potential good entry per my criteria..as did quite a few energy sector players.
In the sea of red we have in NY this early morning, oil is up 2% so not too bad a choice it seems now...

My post left before i could read @bux2000 answer.thanks for the details:makes sense.why not trying a trailing stop loss or is it too volatile?
On these shares,SL are often just dream wishes

 

[bux2000]

On these shares,SL are often just dream wishes

So true and so quickly through the stop without triggering the SL

My very simple methodology of keeping trades that become positive and selling those that become losses or showing only small gains, has worked .......SO FAR ......for me, although now some 200+ trades later I have a portfolio that shows not much annual taxable profit but some good Capital Gain.

After thinking through what @tech/a has been saying you can perhaps have both and that is starting to make sense too.

bux

 

[tech/a]

Bux is this looks like a shorter term trade with that tight stop---Correct?
Thanks for the commentary ----- excellent makes perfect sense.

Just a few comments on the trade and chart.

 

[bux2000]

Thanks Tech,

Sorry to answer your question about short term trade, not sure I guess for me perhaps longer term if shows promise, be very interested to know how you might see it ?

I must admit I find all this fascinating ......I probably should be concentrating more on my day job but I figure I deserve a bit of a break every now and then.

OK so thinking about it maybe I should have looked for an entry closer to .095c if there is a pull back today.........but would that be a time to add or just wait and see ?

Yeh I know but I just think its all so cool ? I probably would still make more money out of buying a lotto ticket. but I do that anyway

With the market down this morning as @qldfrog has said it will be interesting.

Thanks again for your time

bux

 

[Sean K]

@bux2000

What's your sell or profit taking plan Bux?

And, I know we're trading charts, but any idea why it tanked on 13 Aug? I've looked at their anns and no explanation... I wouldn't have bought this without looking at the reasons for the tank. Also slightly concerned about resistance at 10c.

 

[qldfrog]

@bux2000

What's your sell or profit taking plan Bux?

And, I know we're trading charts, but any idea why it tanked on 13 Aug? I've looked at their anns and no explanation... I wouldn't have bought this without looking at the reasons for the tank. Also slightly concerned about resistance at 10c.

out of the systems, one daily out today

 

[peter2]

@kennas HZN returned 0.03 capital on 13/8/21. That's why some unadjusted charts show the gap.
I agree that 0.10 may provide some resistance. I also wouldn't buy something just below potential resistance.

@bux2000, if you want to establish a short term trading activity it's vital that you create a consistent process. A process that makes you evaluate every chart in the same way. I'll post my charts as an example of my process.

Weekly chart first. Price is already in an established weekly up trend that started with the BO at 0.05. There was another BO opportunity near 0.07. My aim is to buy at the earliest opportunity for the best RR. Starting a long trade now, we must realise that we're late into this trend. Knowing this, I would apply short term trading tactics. Price continues higher and I grab a quick profit or I take a quick loss if price falls.

The upper panes show the relative strength comparision between the stock price and the XAO index. The price of HZN has been going up faster than the XAO since the BO >0.05 in Jan21.

Daily chart: Understanding that this opp is a short term one we look for a setup with an acceptable RR. In this regard I agree with the trade setup proposed by @tech/a. It's a break-out of a ledge and happens well below any possible resistance at 0.10.

My charts use the Supertrend to colour the bars. I scan the market each afternoon looking for the 1st blue bars. Notice that the 1stBB coincided with the ledge BO. If this setup passes my trade checklist I would buy before the close or on the next open. The choice of where to place your initial stop loss should depend on your trading style. Select the tightest SL for a short term trade. If your aim is to hold HZN for longer (medium term) then I'd suggest using an iSL a little further away.

Included in my checklist is the question, "is the underlying commodity (that's relevant to the company) going up ?" That's oil, yep.

Edit: I didn't mention any evaluation of the trading volume, but it's also important. During the formation of the price ledge, there was an attempt at a shake out and volume dried up. A good indication that supply is running out (or being withdrawn). This helps price go higher quickly.

 

[bux2000]

Hi @peter2 ,

Thank you for taking so much of your time to give commentary. Your sharing makes so much sense and my commentary extremely amateur especially the charts which are clear and make so much sense.

I appreciate your opinion, it is just a shame we can't somehow get hold of tomorrow's Charts today.

All the very best

bux

 

[tech/a]

@bux2000 What is your take after today?

Select the tightest SL for a short term trade. If your aim is to hold HZN for longer (medium term) then I'd suggest using an iSL a little further away.

I concur with Pete in general terms with the above.

But will add a strategy I have used in the past.

With a longer term trade Im looking to get on a good run with as many shares as I can but limiting my risk.
I can do this 3 ways (If people have other ways please share).
(1) Take a position where the stop is tight and be prepared to have a few false starts. (Exit then buy again)
(2) Take smaller initial position and buy more on pull backs. (Wider stops)
(3) Take smaller positions and buy as opportunity presents. (Wider stops)

In all cases I place a stop at B/E when +1R and on EACH position has its own stop if adding

 

[bux2000]

In all cases I place a stop at B/E when +1R and on EACH position has its own stop if adding

Hi Tech,

look forward to your commentary on COE if it triggers a buy for you.

The line above I am afraid had me squinting very tightly but unfortunately that didn't help me to break the code
If I understand correctly you would trade each added position separately.............but that's where my code breaking ability ceases no University training but I am sure you would understand.

As far as HZN goes I am not sure if I would move my stop loss at this stage even consider dropping it to .092 but am very interested to hear alternative views.

Thanks to everyone

bux

 

[bux2000]

Just another look at a weekly chart .096 seems to be a good support level so maybe raise the stop to .095.

bux

 

[peter2]

@bux2000 The downside exposure in your HZN trade is the difference between your entry (0.098) and your iSL (0.094) is 0.004. This is the value of your unit of risk or R multiple. Tech/a is suggesting that once price gets to +1R (0.098 +0.004 = 0.102) you should consider raising your exit stop to break even (BE, 0.098). Once price gets above 0.010 the next tick value is 0.105. Once price gets to 0.105 it shouldn't go back to 0.098 so this is a logical place for your exit.

Your next post hints of micro-managing. Leave your iSL where it is until price moves significantly (up to 0.105 or down to your exit). Starting your trade near potential resistance (0.10 level) means you haven't given price any room to move around and this is going to drive you crazy as you wonder what to do next.

 

[tech/a]

I’m pretty aggressive and would move up each day
wether price rises falls or stagnates.
in increments but it’s not my call, it’s fine where it is.
Do what your comfortable with. Be you not me!

I like my buys to move! UP.
I also like them to prove themselves so they have to
rise into my buy.

Just saw Pete’s post 100% agree

 

[bux2000]

Thanks again Peter a ? moment for me.

Thanks to you as well Tech and yes you are right about comfort........unfortunately the boredom of the nuts and bolts of life can sometimes get in the way of having a little flutter.

All the best

bux

 

[frugal.rock]

And, I know we're trading charts, but any idea why it tanked on 13 Aug? I've looked at their anns and no explanation...

All I can say is if you look at ATS CVN COE charts they all tanked as you say about the same period.

If you look at a oil futures chart, it's a bit clearer.
The date mentioned is around mid point of a $10 poo pullback.

If your not considering underlying (commodity) prices in your trades, you might want to consider it.
Correlations are common and normal especially when a company is a one trick pony.

 

[tech/a]

My apologies for not following this up.

 

[Country Lad]

Let's hope it maintains its habits.

Fairly low amount hedged at a reasonable price and is increasing output. Also some BPT which looks like it broke out today.
Not expecting great things, just parking some of the spare cash for later use.

 

[Telamelo]

With oil price moving up.. took a punt on cash flow positive oiler HZN @ 0.14c noting they report results tomorrow morning (chance perhaps of dividend/capital return being announced tomorrow imo)

DYOR & due diligence as always..

Cheers tela