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Company Secretary Appointment/Resignation - http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=HZN&E=ASX&N=773785
HZN - Horizon Oil
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tinhat
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PNG government gives approval for Stanley project at last! From what I have been reading around the place it looks like the PNG government is quite keen to get the whole Western Province LNG project going (which Stanley will also supply in the long run). the cash from the Osaka deal now becomes due too. I've done OK trading in and out of HZN over the past few years but I held all the way through the last dip while other holders obviously lost patience over the PNG license. Now I have to hope that the market will wake up and catch up to the new fundamentals of HZN.
I thought it was most likely the uncertainty over the license that was holding back the share price, however this news has hardly caused a blip.
Probably a lot of stale holders getting out at the moment, so might see a steady rise over the next few weeks. Quarterly might give it a bit of a boost with full production from Beibu and Maari back on line.
tinhat
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HZN up 10% today.
I don't subscribe to AFR but this is the headline:
I'd be quite disappointed if the board recommends any offer less than 55c but I'd probably take anything down to 50c as a bird in the hand. 60 would be fair. The license to start production is waiting for the official ceremony and the talk is that an agreement to supply of Ok Tedi is a done deal as it was a prerequisite of the production license from the PNG government. Supplying Ok Tedi will mean gas sales from the get go rather than having to reinject all the gas back into the well.
I don't subscribe to AFR but this is the headline:
I'd be quite disappointed if the board recommends any offer less than 55c but I'd probably take anything down to 50c as a bird in the hand. 60 would be fair. The license to start production is waiting for the official ceremony and the talk is that an agreement to supply of Ok Tedi is a done deal as it was a prerequisite of the production license from the PNG government. Supplying Ok Tedi will mean gas sales from the get go rather than having to reinject all the gas back into the well.
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Horizon Oil, Roc Oil halted on takeover talk
http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/horizon_oil_roc_oil_halted_on_takeover_RpMSNWmIrvyXffD5aj2WrL
I purchased too early. Timing is everything, l'm only up 4.9%...
http://www.afr.com/p/business/companies/horizon_oil_roc_oil_halted_on_takeover_RpMSNWmIrvyXffD5aj2WrL
I purchased too early. Timing is everything, l'm only up 4.9%...
skc
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May I propose...
WORST. MERGER. ANNOUCEMENT. EVER.
Actually it's probably not that bad strategically. But shareholders in HZN have probably built up some nice expectations over the weekend... and instead see HZN fall by 10%.
skc
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Lol. I had the same thought in mind, although it was on an episode where the Comic book guy had an episode of heart attack.
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Disappointed. HZN has far more near to mid term upside than ROC with HZN looking at some significant cash inflows in the pipeline.
If I wanted risk diversification I would do that within my portfolio. I am in HZN for HZN prospects.
Late June for the Independent Expert's Report???
Lets hope the broker analysts pull the deal apart.
I note though that sometimes in these kind of mergers that the respective Boards may have already sounded out the thoughts of major shareholders.
Looking forward to tomorrow's AFR.
Grrr
If I wanted risk diversification I would do that within my portfolio. I am in HZN for HZN prospects.
Late June for the Independent Expert's Report???
Lets hope the broker analysts pull the deal apart.
I note though that sometimes in these kind of mergers that the respective Boards may have already sounded out the thoughts of major shareholders.
Looking forward to tomorrow's AFR.
Grrr
tinhat
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After the initial disappointment that the news was not a take over offer for cash as might have been speculated, volume traded today was the highest since 01/06/2010 (as far as I can tell looking back over my chart).
That an arbitrage has opened up between ROC and HZN since the announcement might be because the market has decided that HZN's PNG gas interests might be the more attractive assets in the medium/long term and/or that there is more chance of a competing take over offer for HZN coming from an other party, or is simply a repricing of risk over the Stanley development project given that ROC will now be able to provide much of the financial and soft capital required for the development with much less dilution than farming out would require (especially if you consider that the PNG assets have barley been priced into the share price in recent times.
That an arbitrage has opened up between ROC and HZN since the announcement might be because the market has decided that HZN's PNG gas interests might be the more attractive assets in the medium/long term and/or that there is more chance of a competing take over offer for HZN coming from an other party, or is simply a repricing of risk over the Stanley development project given that ROC will now be able to provide much of the financial and soft capital required for the development with much less dilution than farming out would require (especially if you consider that the PNG assets have barley been priced into the share price in recent times.
tinhat
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If the fall in the share price today was because of the mystery "confidential, unsolicited, indicative and incomplete [takeover] proposal" received by ROC, then it seems to be a complete over-reaction by whoever was selling. With or without the merger with ROC, HZN has a positive future in the PNG Stanley project, albeit with a degree of project and sovereign risk.
Thomson consensus forecasts for EPS are 3.3c for 2015 and 4.1c for 2016.
I bought a few more today and will sell if there is a bounce tomorrow as i am already long.
Thomson consensus forecasts for EPS are 3.3c for 2015 and 4.1c for 2016.
I bought a few more today and will sell if there is a bounce tomorrow as i am already long.
tinhat
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Looks like the marriage has been called off. ROC oil has recommended the takeover offer from Fosun International Limited. Share price down 6.8% today on the news. I wonder if there will be any takeover interest in HZN.
pixel
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Around midday, I revved up my usual scan and got HZN as a result.
For a moment, I wondered if I should start buying at 31c, but that was quickly overtaken by 31.5 being bid: there was one particular buy order for some 83,650 (from memory). Shortly after I had added a starter bid of my own, I looked again and found the 83k buy order had been pulled and reentered BELOW mine. That happened several times when other smaller bids came in below ... and made me think: What if this dude simply wants to create the impression of strong demand, but isn't really interested in buying at 31.5c? What could be the motive for such a ruse, other than possibly the intention to sell one or two ticks higher?
So I pulled my buy order and waited...
Check the chart: Once buyers stopped eating into the 32c offers, trades retreated and closed at 31c.
Now we still have a Trinity signal underneath, but a Shooting Star candle that suggests 32c is the likely Primary Resistance and we'll see a pullback towards 29c or lower. Until I find proof of buying support and subsequent reversal, I'll let others do the buying.
For a moment, I wondered if I should start buying at 31c, but that was quickly overtaken by 31.5 being bid: there was one particular buy order for some 83,650 (from memory). Shortly after I had added a starter bid of my own, I looked again and found the 83k buy order had been pulled and reentered BELOW mine. That happened several times when other smaller bids came in below ... and made me think: What if this dude simply wants to create the impression of strong demand, but isn't really interested in buying at 31.5c? What could be the motive for such a ruse, other than possibly the intention to sell one or two ticks higher?
So I pulled my buy order and waited...
Check the chart: Once buyers stopped eating into the 32c offers, trades retreated and closed at 31c.
Now we still have a Trinity signal underneath, but a Shooting Star candle that suggests 32c is the likely Primary Resistance and we'll see a pullback towards 29c or lower. Until I find proof of buying support and subsequent reversal, I'll let others do the buying.
pixel
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I'm back on with a small position.
In spite of a falling Crude Oil price, today's announcement was met with a positive response.
Momentum has turned up again, respecting the Bullish Divergence trendline.
Stop Loss at 29c; a drop below that level would invalidate the entry signal.
First target 32c; if it breaks, 34c is next.
In spite of a falling Crude Oil price, today's announcement was met with a positive response.
Momentum has turned up again, respecting the Bullish Divergence trendline.
Stop Loss at 29c; a drop below that level would invalidate the entry signal.
First target 32c; if it breaks, 34c is next.
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Falling knife - stand clear
tinhat
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I was going to enter HZN in the November stock tipping comp but decided to back CAJ instead. I had already written up a brief rationale so here it is:
HZN - Horizon Oil please.
This stock has regained investor confidence on the back of a decent quarterly report. Fortunately, they hedged a large value of sales to a favourable price which has helped them generate enough cash flow to buy back $20 of the convertible bonds which mature next year. Improved production at their NZ and China oil wells indicates they will have sufficient cash flow to buy up the convertible bonds. Optimism is growing for their PNG assets as there is a strong business case of demand in western PNG for this gas if they develop production and the agreed sale of 40% of these assets to Osaka Gas provides certainty around funding.
Having recovered from an August low of $0.65 up to $0.12 though - this stock might well take a breather and sit at the $0.12 support level for a while, especially given the current price of oil.
HZN - Horizon Oil please.
This stock has regained investor confidence on the back of a decent quarterly report. Fortunately, they hedged a large value of sales to a favourable price which has helped them generate enough cash flow to buy back $20 of the convertible bonds which mature next year. Improved production at their NZ and China oil wells indicates they will have sufficient cash flow to buy up the convertible bonds. Optimism is growing for their PNG assets as there is a strong business case of demand in western PNG for this gas if they develop production and the agreed sale of 40% of these assets to Osaka Gas provides certainty around funding.
Having recovered from an August low of $0.65 up to $0.12 though - this stock might well take a breather and sit at the $0.12 support level for a while, especially given the current price of oil.
tinhat
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HZN is my pick for the November stock picking competition. The short explanation for picking Horizon Oil is based on speculation that something big gets announced regarding the proposed Western LNG project at November's APEC meeting in Port Moresby. Horizon Oil own a stake in each of the on-land LNG prospects that are proposed to form the Western LNG project.
PNG LNG has been the long frustrated strategic focus of HZN for years. The company got into some trouble when a whole heap of redeemable bonds matured and had to be repaid right when the price of oil fell over the cliff. HZN had tried to pull a rabbit out of the hat through a proposed merger with the more cash laden ROC oil but a ROC shareholder revolt and a successful unsolicited takeover offer from a rival bidder killed off that lifeline. HZN subsequently had to raise the money to fund the buy-out of the maturing bond holders through a mix of a capital raising and subordinated convertible debt borrowing from IMC. This saw HZN shares fall from 46c in 2014 down to a low of around 3.7 cents in 2016 while the CEO maintained what some shareholders considered an overly generous salary during a period of duress.
From time to time, including more recently, there has been a bit of argy bargy between the PNG government and the Western LNG license owners, quite a lot of changing of hands and interests in the ownership of the fields and the PNG government have threatened to cancel licenses to try and get the project moving. Earlier this year, Repsol, the major partner in the gas fields, who some accuse of dragging the chain in getting the development up, sold out to the Chinese Changcheng Group. More recently the PNG Government appear to have become more focused on the Western LNG project.
The economics of the project have also improved with the recovery in oil prices because some of the LNG fields contain a high amount of condensate which might be able to be economically stripped and shipped prior to the major capital investment required to development gas pipelines aggregating the fields to feed a floating LNG plant.
Additionally, through a deal in which it sold part of its stake in Western LNG to Osaka Gas back 2013, Osaka is due make a payment of US$130m to HZN upon an investment decision being finalised.
HZN is also a junior partner in producing off shore oil fields in New Zealand and China which are performing well allowing HZN to substantially pay down debt, especially the convertible debt to IMC averting the worst case scenario of the other shareholders getting diluted through IMC converting the debt to equity.
I've been following and trading into and out of HZN for a few years. I'm not a fan-boy of off-shire oil extraction or a fossil fuel based future, but Western LNG could be a major economic development for the western provinces of PNG where many people live without electricity. It is quite possible that some of the Western LNG production will be used for electricity generation for western PNG.
PNG LNG has been the long frustrated strategic focus of HZN for years. The company got into some trouble when a whole heap of redeemable bonds matured and had to be repaid right when the price of oil fell over the cliff. HZN had tried to pull a rabbit out of the hat through a proposed merger with the more cash laden ROC oil but a ROC shareholder revolt and a successful unsolicited takeover offer from a rival bidder killed off that lifeline. HZN subsequently had to raise the money to fund the buy-out of the maturing bond holders through a mix of a capital raising and subordinated convertible debt borrowing from IMC. This saw HZN shares fall from 46c in 2014 down to a low of around 3.7 cents in 2016 while the CEO maintained what some shareholders considered an overly generous salary during a period of duress.
From time to time, including more recently, there has been a bit of argy bargy between the PNG government and the Western LNG license owners, quite a lot of changing of hands and interests in the ownership of the fields and the PNG government have threatened to cancel licenses to try and get the project moving. Earlier this year, Repsol, the major partner in the gas fields, who some accuse of dragging the chain in getting the development up, sold out to the Chinese Changcheng Group. More recently the PNG Government appear to have become more focused on the Western LNG project.
The economics of the project have also improved with the recovery in oil prices because some of the LNG fields contain a high amount of condensate which might be able to be economically stripped and shipped prior to the major capital investment required to development gas pipelines aggregating the fields to feed a floating LNG plant.
Additionally, through a deal in which it sold part of its stake in Western LNG to Osaka Gas back 2013, Osaka is due make a payment of US$130m to HZN upon an investment decision being finalised.
HZN is also a junior partner in producing off shore oil fields in New Zealand and China which are performing well allowing HZN to substantially pay down debt, especially the convertible debt to IMC averting the worst case scenario of the other shareholders getting diluted through IMC converting the debt to equity.
I've been following and trading into and out of HZN for a few years. I'm not a fan-boy of off-shire oil extraction or a fossil fuel based future, but Western LNG could be a major economic development for the western provinces of PNG where many people live without electricity. It is quite possible that some of the Western LNG production will be used for electricity generation for western PNG.
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It's been a little while since the last post so a quick chart update below. It seems to be over it's pullback in 2020 and now heading in the right direction with a bit more volume.
bux2000
"Don't rely on your memory.....just write a bl**dy
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So it looks like I am the lucky one to kick it off and thanks Tech for the learning opportunity and how better to learn than with a bit of skin in the game.
I apologise in advance if the chart doesn't look that flash.
Bought 10,000 shares at .098c = $980
Stop loss at 10,000 shares at .094c = $940
= $ 40 Potential loss + brokers fee
HZN came up on a scan indicating unusual volumes.
Thanks
bux
I apologise in advance if the chart doesn't look that flash.
Bought 10,000 shares at .098c = $980
Stop loss at 10,000 shares at .094c = $940
= $ 40 Potential loss + brokers fee
HZN came up on a scan indicating unusual volumes.
Thanks
bux
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No Ordinary Duck
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Thanks for the chart bux
I see the logic in taking the position and also the
logic in the stop position.
But I also see some risks. Could you expand on Why
you took the trade , placed the stop where it is AND
any risks or comments on the chart you think should
be or were considered in the process of taking the
trade. Or anyone else care to add?
I see the logic in taking the position and also the
logic in the stop position.
But I also see some risks. Could you expand on Why
you took the trade , placed the stop where it is AND
any risks or comments on the chart you think should
be or were considered in the process of taking the
trade. Or anyone else care to add?
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