Turn your non-real assets into gold, get rid of all credit, then wait for the crash to fully take effect (can be up to 3 years) then buy real assets - particularly property (by that I mean a house on a block of land not a unit).
Why?
Lets start with the question few people ask: what causes an economy to go "bust" as Jikx puts it. Firstly there are two types of "bust":
1. a recession
2. a full blown depression such as what happened in the early 1930s and in Japan from 1990.
Both "busts" have at their root cause a reduction in the amount of credit in circulation. By credit I mean the lending of "goodwill" from a bank.
Some definitions of "money" here might help:
cash - the metal coins and plastic/paper notes you have in your wallet or under your matress.
money or deposits with a bank - the number you see printed on the sheet of paper you get from the bank each month.
credit - the "thin air" or "goodwill" if you like that a bank will give you to go and purchase something.
The ratio of these is typically 1 to 10 for cash to deposits ie. you might have $100 in your wallet and $1000 in your bank account and 1:200 for deposits to credit ie. you might have $1000 in the bank with credit/mortgage up to $200,000.
On this basis (and using the famous Pareto 80:20 rule) you can effectively ignore cash and deposits when it comes to working out what is going to happen with an economy. Credit by its sheer size swamps any effect that the other two measure have on an economy.
So now we have to understand credit. What is it? Before I called it "thin air" or "goodwill". It certainly is not money in the normal sense of the word. Banks create credit out of thin air. They don't have to have money in the form of deposits in order to lend you their "goodwill". To prove this have a look at the financial reports of any bank - lets say NAB. Go to the "Statement of Financial Position" page (what used to be called a balance sheet). For a bank its ASSETS are the LOANS it makes. Similarly for a bank the DEPOSITS you have with the bank are its LIABILITIES.
Now for any entity ASSETS - LIABILITIES equals the "value" of a entity. For a bank this means LOANS - DEPOSITS equals the "value" of a bank.
How is it that LOANS are bigger than DEPOSITS?
Banks manufacture credit out of thin air.
Let me repeat that:
Banks manufacture credit out of thin air
They don't need your deposits in order to lend you credit.
How does this work in real life, well each bank "trusts" the other bank's "thin air" credit because they each extend the other bank "goodwill". Nothing more, nothing less. They may have a "goodwill" imbalance at the end of any given day but that is soon balanced up before any one bank creates too much thin air. It becomes self regulating for good reason. Should one bank get too far out of whack the whole system of bank credit would collapse on itself.
So we know that credit represents the largest influence on the economy and credit is created out of "thin air".
Since credit is primarily "thin air" it can be both created AND destroyed.
A bank destroys credit by asking you for immediate repayment of the "credit" that they loaned you. Don't think this could happen? For those of you with a credit card or mortgage have a read of the fine print about repayment. The bank can demand FULL repayment of the credit they loaned you usually within 30 days. Don't think they wouldn't do it - think again.
Enter the central bank.
They do exactly the same thing only on a much, much larger scale. Not only do they "control" their "member" banks they control the economy. How? By the same techniques - the creation and destruction of credit.
For those of you who think the goverment controls an economy ask yourself this: can a government create or destroy the single biggest influence on the economy? From the previous analysis credit by far is that single biggest influence so can/does a government create/destroy credit? No. The central bank and its member banks do.
But you say the central bank is part of the government. Think again. Some of you may remember John Howard's lame comments about keeping interest rates low under a Liberal government. You may also remember the direct rebuttal by then Reserve Bank governor Ian Macfarlane mentioned in the Sydney Morning Herald:
August 19, 2006
THE outgoing Reserve Bank governor has
revealed his annoyance at the Howard Government's election campaign promise to keep
interest rates low - a pledge that he says was "not plausible".
Ian Macfarlane, who warned yesterday that interest rates were likely to rise again before the
end of the year, told the Herald in an interview: "I mean, they make these claims, you know,
'Vote for us - you'll have low interest rates,' which obviously we found annoying."
He revealed the Reserve Bank had considered going public before the 2004 election to point out
that the Government was "incorrect". But its leadership decided unanimously to remain silent to
avoid politicising the central bank.
Nevertheless, "the independence of the Reserve Bank was already so well established that [the
Government's] argument would not be a plausible argument".
So we have central banks and member banks in control of the single largest influence on an economy and a government unable to do a thing.
Central banks are there to help us; aren't they? Tell me they are...
Sorry to burst your bubble kiddo - they are there for themselves, not you. They have two goals:
1. interest or what used to be called usary
2. control
Lets take usary or interest. It is what you pay a bank for the priviledge of them leaning you "thin air". How do you pay interest? From the sweat of your brow ie. your productive work what ever that happens to be. That means making something, building something, digging stuff out of the ground or providing someone with service. You substitute your time for cash. You then pay some of that real cash to the banks in the form of interest and bank fees. They keep that interest. That is their profit. That is their real return and they know it. Their loans are worthless thin air, so the interest they get from you is what they are really after - your hard earned productivity.
Now control. Why would a bank be interested in control. See item 1. By controlling people and for central banks, the government, they control the stream of interest. Get people and governments hooked on credit then you can control them.
So we have credit created out of thin air by the banks; central banks being independent of government; credit the largest influence on an ecomomy; credit being able to be both created and destroyed; interest is the primary aim of the banks and control the way banks ensure they maintain that interest stream.
Lets see if this explains a few things:
1. The Great Depression.
2. The fall of Japan since 1990
3. The rise of China recently
4. The tech bust of 2000.
5. Rising house prices across Australia
6. Large exchange rate fluctuations.
The list goes on.
Remember the original question was where do I put my assets if the economy goes bust. We are close.
Great Depression - prior to 1913 the US did not have a central bank. Its banking system (despite several attempts by some bankers to create a central bank in the past) was regional with hundreds of individual banks each issuing its own notes. In 1913 the Federal Reserve Act was passed creating the US central bank know as the Federal Reserve. It is not owned by the US government but by its member banks. By the late 1920s it had taken over the role of printing notes in the US. It had through its member banks increased credit massively. Stock market rose to a peak, people were hooked on credit. Then it pulled the plug. It told its member banks to withdraw credit. Again on a massive scale. Why? It wanted total control over the banking system. In the 1920's it still did not control all the banks in the US. By withdrawing credit the hope was it would cause a panic and a run on smaller non-member regional banks. It did. The most liquid form of money is in the stock market. So if you had to repay credit to the bank - the stock market is the first place you would go to get liquid assets. Sept 1929 - Stock market crashed. Why - first round of credit reduction. However the market recovered somewhat in the next 3 months:
but during 1929 to 1933 the 1929 crash looks like a mere correction (click on image for a full size view):
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