Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

How low can the All Ords go?

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Who knows were the market is heading? I still haven't found anyone that can predict the future. All these guesses are worthless. Look at companies as individuals, not at the market as a whole.

If your not patient and can't take short term pain you shouldn't be in this market. Wait until there is a defined upswing. But hey, you could have missed out on a 20% rise if you want to sit on the side. :2twocents
 
LRG said:
I subscribe to Huntley's who's view was that the Jan 22 low of 5200ish was the low to rally off to new highs going forward.

This has now proven not to be the case.

I have heard some say that it is now heading to 4700 before it bottoms.

We have so many "expert" opinions - some say black, some say white.

Statistically, 50% will be right and 50% will be wrong.

I think maybe more downside over the next 6 months at least.

What do people think??? :2twocents:confused:
Click to expand...

Huntleys are a pretty damn useless crowd in my experience......subscribed to them briefly about 12 years ago and they didn't have much idea at all.

Markets are driven primarily by fundamentals.
Fundamentals here and in every other country are atrocious and getting worse by the day.
Our biggest export earner, coal and other mining based resources, are suffering from falling prices due to greatly diminished demand that dries up further week by week.

Company profits are sliding and unemployment is rising, particularly in the mining industry where thousands of workers have been retrenched.
And that's just in Australia. The situation is even more grim in many other countries whose economies are far bigger than ours.

Does this sound like the sort of economic environment that's conductive to a market comeback?

Nobody knows how far the market will fall. Just about every opinion will be wrong.
The crash of 1929 wiped 65% off the US market before it bottomed out. It took 25 years to regain its losses.
Our market so far has fallen about 53%
 
kennas said:
Some random plucking of numbers here which require justification.

Please do so.

Cheers!
Click to expand...

My key focus is on price, patterns and timing of pivots. I have posted a simple weekly chart which has 2 trend lines - using time analysis, we are due to touch the steeper of the 2 trend lines giving us 2 full pivots which should meet at around 3900 - 4000 ish give or take. However, there is the possibility that we may go up to the first trend line for a third touch (adding around another 3 months rally until the end of June). I favour that we sell off around the first trend line, with a projected timing around end of March... but further upside is very possible and would have to re-analyse in April...

As for the downside, as we are in a mature bear market with all the longer term Moving Averages in steep decline, there will probably be 3 - 4 lower pivots (we are now in the second) ... so as a rough indication it should bottom out at around 1500 - 2000...:2twocents:D
 

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bunyip said:
Huntleys are a pretty damn useless crowd in my experience......subscribed to them briefly about 12 years ago and they didn't have much idea at all.

Markets are driven primarily by fundamentals.
Fundamentals here and in every other country are atrocious and getting worse by the day.
Our biggest export earner, coal and other mining based resources, are suffering from falling prices due to greatly diminished demand that dries up further week by week.

Company profits are sliding and unemployment is rising, particularly in the mining industry where thousands of workers have been retrenched.
And that's just in Australia. The situation is even more grim in many other countries whose economies are far bigger than ours.

Does this sound like the sort of economic environment that's conductive to a market comeback?

Nobody knows how far the market will fall. Just about every opinion will be wrong.
The crash of 1929 wiped 65% off the US market before it bottomed out. It took 25 years to regain its losses.
Our market so far has fallen about 53%
Click to expand...

Correction....the 1929 crash wiped 89% off the US market.
 
Hi,

Bunyip,

Correction....the 1929 crash wiped 89% off the US market.
Click to expand...

Yes that was the USA. In Australia the market fell by ~46% in '29-31 then recovered to new highs by '34. Our biggest decline happened from Jan '70 to Nov '74, a fall of 63%. However there were 2 retracements to near the high inbetween.

Is history bunk?? Will this be worse than the world wars and the great depression for our market, that was reasonably priced on a PER basis before the GFC started??

brty
 
Throw history out the window......Bye

Is this the worst one ..........Yes
Charts are useless to us now!!!!
Its uncharted territory
Go on make a prediction and I'll call you a physic :eek:
And to you new punks out there trying to make something out of nothing............Beware
 
nick2fish said:
Throw history out the window......Bye

Is this the worst one ..........Yes
Charts are useless to us now!!!!
Its uncharted territory
Go on make a prediction and I'll call you a physic :eek:
And to you new punks out there trying to make something out of nothing............Beware
Click to expand...

Charts are useless??? use them to make money... trade what you see and trade the trend!
 
Charts are useless to us now!!!!
Its uncharted territory
Click to expand...

In actual fact the long term chart patterns on the local market cannot be any clearer that what we're currently seeing. I say that from all time frames, monthly since 1952, weekly & daily since November 2007. The pattern I highlighted in March 2007 are still tracing out as expected. Until they are invalidated there is no reason to think the outcome won't be expected. SEE HERE

Over the weekend I just did a report for subscribers on the four most significant crashes on the S&P500 - 1932, 1974, 1987 and 2002. The pattern we're seeing now is, at this juncture at least, exactly the same. These are not Elliott Wave patterns, but they're clear as day for anyone who takes the time.



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
 
Nick Radge said:
In actual fact the long term chart patterns on the local market cannot be any clearer that what we're currently seeing. I say that from all time frames, monthly since 1952, weekly & daily since November 2007. The pattern I highlighted in March 2007 are still tracing out as expected. Until they are invalidated there is no reason to think the outcome won't be expected. SEE HERE

Over the weekend I just did a report for subscribers on the four most significant crashes on the S&P500 - 1932, 1974, 1987 and 2002. The pattern we're seeing now is, at this juncture at least, exactly the same. These are not Elliott Wave patterns, but they're clear as day for anyone who takes the time.
Click to expand...

Thats a long time in the wilderness, so for the foreseeable future buy and hold is not the way to go ?

That gets me back to real estate again.

My concern is what to do with a large lump of cash from here on, no borrowings.
 
MrBurns said:
Thats a long time in the wilderness, so for the foreseeable future buy and hold is not the way to go ?

That gets me back to real estate again.

My concern is what to do with a large lump of cash from here on, no borrowings.
Click to expand...

cash is king right now unless you are a day trader. As for real estate, prices may dip further, sit tight and wait to pick up bargins then... prices won't boom anytime soon, so wait and see:)
 
70,000 + people has lost their jobs World wide over the last few days...things and not getting any better soon.
 
Cooks said:
cash is king right now unless you are a day trader. As for real estate, prices may dip further, sit tight and wait to pick up bargins then... prices won't boom anytime soon, so wait and see:)
Click to expand...

Everyone says cash is king but I'm concerned about the stability of the banks and getting it out again if things get very much worse which they probably will.

I want to hold out for 2 years because that when I think property will bottom out but the cash is increasingly at risk in the bank the longer I leave it there.
 
MrBurns said:
Everyone says cash is king but I'm concerned about the stability of the banks and getting it out again if things get very much worse which they probably will.

I want to hold out for 2 years because that when I think property will bottom out but the cash is increasingly at risk in the bank the longer I leave it there.
Click to expand...

you're right about the banks, they aren't looking too stable and they could freeze accounts if things get worse to avoid bank runs.... purchase gold then at the Perth mint... you can store it there for free, and looking at gold right now, it is looking bullish... but that is a high risk investment
 
Gee,

With all this doom and gloom in the air and talk of a run on aussie banks I’m starting to feel a tad bullish.:D
 
nunthewiser said:
maybe a lil research first darl......................
Click to expand...

Under the Perth Mint Certificate Program (PMCP), investors can purchase bullion gold, silver, and platinum at the Perth Mint spot (cash as opposed to future) market ask price with no markup.

The PMCP offers free storage at the Perth Mint, eliminating a
significant cost of physical ownership.
....
....
The beauty
of the Perth Mint is that it’s not a bank account, meaning you
don’t have to disclose it. It’s a government-owned vault and the
storage is free.


Source: Crash Proof - Peter Schiff

So there are ways to get free storage if you do YOUR research

thanks DARL
 

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