How low can the All Ords go?

[nunthewiser]

Under the Perth Mint Certificate Program (PMCP), investors can purchase bullion gold, silver, and platinum at the Perth Mint spot (cash as opposed to future) market ask price with no markup.

The PMCP offers free storage at the Perth Mint, eliminating a
significant cost of physical ownership.
....
....
The beauty
of the Perth Mint is that it’s not a bank account, meaning you
don’t have to disclose it. It’s a government-owned vault and the
storage is free.

Source: Crash Proof - Peter Schiff

thanks DARL

IT is NOT physical GOLD .certificates only ........ try converting the certificates to bullion currently

there IS storage fees involved on bullion storage

there is no mention of certificate gold in your post only this

purchase gold then at the Perth mint... you can store it there for free,

haveaniceday

 

[Cooks]

IT is NOT physical GOLD .certificates only ........ try converting the certificates to bullion currently

there IS storage fees involved on bullion storage

there is no mention of certificate gold in your post only this






haveaniceday

here is a little more for you

Safety, which can be a concern with other certificate programs,
is assured here because the metals remain on the
premises and cannot be lent out.

 

[cutz]

Gold Bullion,

It's just another ponzi scheme, pretty much useless unless there is a greater fool willing to pay more.

My opinion only, please DYOR if considering buying/selling bullion.

 

[sinner]

It's also worth noting, if you want "free storage" you will need unallocated certificates, i.e. no gold will be fabricated and stored for you. If you want redemption you will then have to pay fab (which will increase on Feb 1 2009 ccording to the FAQ) and delivery fees.

I cannot prove this currently because the PCMG website is down for maintenance, but I am pretty sure there is a clause in the certificate just like there is for ZAUWBA that states delivery of physical gold (even allocated holdings) is at the discretion and reasonable timeframe of the mint. i.e. in any situation where gold is desirable, you will be getting redemption in AUD.

Cooks, not sure how you can go bashing the governments trustability in another thread then come here and spruik Perth Mint Gold Certs (a product supplied and guaranteed by the WA govt).

Paper gold is paper gold, no changing that no matter what you call it.

 

[nunthewiser]

here is a little more for you

Safety, which can be a concern with other certificate programs,
is assured here because the metals remain on the
premises and cannot be lent out.

??? uh? why you telling me ? .the original post had nothing to do with certificates or was posted UNCLEARLY by yourself .

i have no intrest in certificates as if i wanted a piece of paper i would trade or hold the GOLD listed on the asx instead without the certificate fees and the % spread on buying and selling from dealer on top of market price fluctuations

i hold PHYSICAL bullion

 

[brty]

Any danger of you gold bugs taking your Perth Mint discussion to a gold thread where it belongs??

If history is bunk, as some suggest, then any prediction on where we go from here is probably incorrect, both bull and bear.

We need to keep the discussion about our market, not the US market that has different underlying fundamentals. (for example the XAO stocks pay much higher dividends than the S&P500 stocks, because of differences in taxation treatment in each country).

The falls in markets that some like to highlight of a magnitude of 80-90% seem to start from PER of up to 100 (like the Nikkei in 1989).

Can someone please show a market that fell even 66% that started from a PER of ~17, like ours was in 2007???

brty

 

[dirty_harry]

Hi all,

this is my first post. I hold a lot of stocks and have been buying resources recently. I am long term bullish on natural resources because of the demand from Asia for commodities, and because they are a currency hedge like gold is. I do not trust currencies long term. I have taken hits on property trusts and banks in 2008, sold some holding some.

My feelings are that the Aussie economy recovering depends on the banks which depend on the housing market, as they secure most of their loans. The banks underlying businesses are extremely profitable in Australia. The question is if the housing market tanks badly, what will the provisions/losses need to be. If the housing market basically holds then the banks are trading at half price or less right now. They are raising plenty of capital from offshore due to the govt guarantees. They made huge profits last year while US and UK banks made massive losses. However the housing market held for 3 years last time after the '87 stock market crash, but ultimately tanked in the '90s, due to interest rates going to 20%. There are people with 10 or 20 houses that are very proud of their negative gearing (ie losing money). This is not a natural situation and makes me nervous.

I can't imagine Western governments would allow the nightmare scenario of deflation and depression, due to the political uncertainty, riots etc that would result. So I expect them to debase the currencies with money printing to devalue their debts and force investment and spending. So significant inflation coming.

So while there is huge uncertainty, I would place my bets on Warren Buffett who understands these forces. He is buying. All ords should go back to 4500-5000 at some point, but short term I don't know.

 

[Cooks]

So while there is huge uncertainty, I would place my bets on Warren Buffett who understands these forces. He is buying. All ords should go back to 4500-5000 at some point, but short term I don't know.

Hi Dirty Harry,

Agree with your post... and I too would place my bets on Buffet The only thing is that he has the cash to ride out more downside should it come.

I see another proper bull run starting around 2014 - 2015 after we have an accumulation stage on the longer chart time frames

 

[Cooks]

Cooks, not sure how you can go bashing the governments trustability in another thread then come here and spruik Perth Mint Gold Certs (a product supplied and guaranteed by the WA govt).

Hey Sinner,

I bash the government on their reports because a lot of the time from their side there is always this urgency to "please the public" or "lay it down nicely to them". I like to think outside the box and not believe everything I read, avoiding the sheepish ways. However, I do give some trust to government provided it adds up with MY OWN research. So far it has done very nicely for me The topic we were referring to was food prices are declining and this is clearly not the case for me, is it for you? if so, where do you shop?

 

[drsmith]

With less volatility and less overall fanfare than the bounce from lows in October and November, I'm wondering whether this week is the turning point.

 

[Family_Guy]

With less volatility and less overall fanfare than the bounce from lows in October and November, I'm wondering whether this week is the turning point.

I think with the reporting season apon us and some bad news on the way over the next few weeks, i would not be surprised to see the All Ords break 3000 by 4th week of Feb. My call.......lock that in Eddie with $50.

 

[OzWaveGuy]

....So while there is huge uncertainty, I would place my bets on Warren Buffett who understands these forces. He is buying. All ords should go back to 4500-5000 at some point, but short term I don't know.

Interesting concept. Buffet has lost big money in recent years. In order to 'stabilize' the markets the PR machine will use anything possible from printing cash, giving it away, lowering interest rates and sensationalizing big names that buy into the market.

These actions are very typical as they have 'appeared' to work in the past. Will they work again - I doubt it.

 

[dirty_harry]

People have lost faith in Warren Buffett several times in the past. That's quite natural because he goes against the tide. In the dot com boom some were saying he'd lost the plot because his response to those that were trying to get him to invest in tech stocks was "I've never seen an electron".
He has been through market crashes where his assets have halved but has come out stronger each time. He bought too early in the 70s but made money on those investments in the following years. If he is right he has not lost any money because he is not selling into these prices. The big skill he has is to calculate intrinsic value, and if the price is 75% or less of it, he buys. Time will tell us if he is right this time.

 

[michael_selway]

I think with the reporting season apon us and some bad news on the way over the next few weeks, i would not be surprised to see the All Ords break 3000 by 4th week of Feb. My call.......lock that in Eddie with $50.

hm i think the bad news will come in the full year reporting in Aug09, so Feb09 may be quite bullish for XAO before Aug09? What do you think?



Thanks

MS

 

[Aussiejeff]

hm i think the bad news will come in the full year reporting in Aug09, so Feb09 may be quite bullish for XAO before Aug09? What do you think?



Thanks

MS

Ummm. Nope.

Make way for 3,000 folks. Going down. Next stop underwear, shoes, ladies & gents fashion...

Interesting to note S&P giving Babcock & Brown the boot from the All Ords. The effect will be to "artificially" support the AOX now that a big negative influence has been removed & replaced with "more positive" companies like Coka Koala.

Funny that.... it's a numbers game. We need our index to look better than it has been of late. Maybe they should dump all poor performers from the AOX - that would be even better (oh wait - errr, there are so many poor performers of late that would mean the all ords index would be down to a mere handful of companies to rate)!

Meh....

 

[Geoff]

Just scratch the XAO and make a new indicator called OAO which is the optimistic all ordinaries. It's the same as XAO except with 3000 points added. Confidence will skyrocket!

 

[Gundini]

Re: How low can All Ords go?

How long is a piece of string?

It is conceivable that the XJO could end up in the 3000s. I say this by drawing a line through the financials... the big banks etc.

If not for the resilience of the big miners, (and desperation measures from the Fed) we'd nearly be there already. IMO

If the miners come off 3000s are a dead cert.

Nearly a year has past since this, the second post on this thread.

I would be interested in an update on your current thoughts WayneL when you have some time.

A lot has happened and things have gone from bad to terrible...

What do you think may be the catylist for a recovery, war?

US v who ever they choose? Start churning the great economy into action.

Designed asset inflation?

 

[fapturbo]

XJO 2750 next stop.....

 

[Green08]

If the dust is shaken out we hopefully will not go below 2300. Though I do feel at these levels we are not only copping the sins of the twits here but overly done overseas investments through superfunds and the agents they use "big names" to invest in portfolios of international shares. If you do a little tracing it will turn up gems.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

I remember watching the finance report back in Aug 2007 where the "news economist", sorry cant remember the name went on to say that because of China "this time it's different.
We all know what happened to the market shortly after.

Today I was reading an article in the financial review where the economist was saying "this time its different". His was talking about why there is no end in sight for the recent falls.

Well to me that's a bullish indicator if I ever seen one! It does not change my plans but reassures me that I am on the right track and this is no different "other than the CNN effect" then any other economic cycle.

But what do I know I only have like 20 posts!

Timendi causa est nescire!

G