Second that, thanks dhukka, that is the exact type of chart I have been looking for ages to see!
How low can the All Ords go?
- Thread starter LRG
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Second that, thanks dhukka, that is the exact type of chart I have been looking for ages to see!
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Unfortunately every downturn is different. I went to a seminar in February and the presenters said these downturns take around 6 months to turn around.
6 months later they said the market should turn around in about "6 months".
Now they just keep quiet.
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If there's no one ringing the bell.......
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hmmm, A significant low could be in place as of 12:55pm
5 waves down from the 4th wave triangle end on the 12th Nov appears complete. The length of this final leg is slightly over 61.8% of the length of wave 3 that started on 23rd Sept. In addition, 3200 support has been hit.
Looking for a series of 5 waves up and a break above 3250 and higher to validate. Dropping below 3200 invalidates the above arrangements.
5 waves down from the 4th wave triangle end on the 12th Nov appears complete. The length of this final leg is slightly over 61.8% of the length of wave 3 that started on 23rd Sept. In addition, 3200 support has been hit.
Looking for a series of 5 waves up and a break above 3250 and higher to validate. Dropping below 3200 invalidates the above arrangements.
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dhukka
Translating into simple English:
We are nearing a point that differentiates a recession from a depression.
My view is that the ingredients of a recession-proper have only recently finalised the mix; namely collapses of finance, housing and car industries.
These ingredients have not had time to influence the markets as they should. That is, a total collapse in confidence is beckoning.
I see markets in a weak state for a minimum 6 months, with a year a more realistic duration.
The allords should keep tumbling.
I'm seeing the 2k figure being reached early in 2009 with a dip under 2500 a reasonable outcome by mid year.
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Where did this spurt come from? Left the house, come back and we have the beginings of a rally on our hands. I cant find any news out there that has caused this.
OZwaveguy- So we hit a low of 3,201, so you were pretty much on the money. I'm only just learning about the elliot waves, so help me out, where to from here?
Sammy
OZwaveguy- So we hit a low of 3,201, so you were pretty much on the money. I'm only just learning about the elliot waves, so help me out, where to from here?
Sammy
Great chart! Any reason why the '87 crash and subsequent bear was left off? ALso was this compiled based of US or AU market data?
Cheers,
Beej
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Been talked about all week by many for hitting a bottom very soon. I was hoping for Monday, but there you go.
Need to head out, but will probably post something over the weekend once the US markets have closed. XAO will probably retrace a % on Monday.
It's the S&P500, I didn't make the chart but I'm assuming that 87 was left off because it was not your typical bear market. That is it took a relatively short time to bottom before recovering.
So isn't that a contrarian indicator that this is not the bottom at all?
Just kidden..
Agreed, I think that scenario is entirely plausible, but it will include at least one large sustained bear market sucker rally in which everyone momentarily thinks the worst is over before having their hopes completely dashed.
Aha so dhukka is not the only one who can post pretty, comparative charts!
From
http://www.safehaven.com/article-11887.htm
From
http://www.safehaven.com/article-11887.htm
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So isn't that a contrarian indicator that this is not the bottom at all?
Just kidden..
Could be! Maybe a false break
Certainly has been in the past - although I don't expect the XAO to carry all that far - but certainly a higher price movement than some of the previous bounces have been.I think we are almost there but not there yet.
I expect to it to move up to 4500 again within next 4-5weeks but it will drop down again, probably down to 3000-3100.
I will be surprised if the bottom goes below 3000.
Once it reaches the bottom(which will happen in January in my opinion) then it will slowly move up in 2009.
Just my opinion based on studies I've done. But don't trust me too much. I'm very new to share trading.
Anyway, I heard rumours that Chinese will buy lots of American banking and car stocks in next 12months. What's your opinion on this?
I expect to it to move up to 4500 again within next 4-5weeks but it will drop down again, probably down to 3000-3100.
I will be surprised if the bottom goes below 3000.
Once it reaches the bottom(which will happen in January in my opinion) then it will slowly move up in 2009.
Just my opinion based on studies I've done. But don't trust me too much. I'm very new to share trading.
Anyway, I heard rumours that Chinese will buy lots of American banking and car stocks in next 12months. What's your opinion on this?
Do you think America will allow this to happen? They can print money out of thin air, why then let other nations take control of their iconic banks/industries.
They are just rumors, just like the rumors of china saving the day and decoupling our economy from US. Are they spread by goldbugs; the rumor mill mafia of wall street.
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Sorry I can't give you links to the articles but recent stories in the China Daily and Shanghai Daily indicate that the big state owned companies have been told to sit back and wait for better bargains later. Probably a reflection on Ping An getting burned on their too-early foray in to Fortis. Also saw an article indicating that the powers that be are holding back from topping up the China strategic copper reserve. China has no need to come riding to anyones rescue right now - a huge transfer of economic power towards the east seems inevitable.
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While I don't believe in EW, on this call I must say, in the words of Borat: "VERY NICE"!
Hope you loaded up on that one!
Hi guys,
I am partially in now. I don't have a lot of money but try to do what I can. Already in on
5000 IGR paid @ 0.135
10000 RMSOC paid @ 0.125
Some physical gold and silver and the remainder in cash.
Tomorrow I will be going long on RMS, TRY, IHK, IZZ (EWH and FXI if you're on an international account) all at roughly the $1000 per holding mark.
I think we are in for a tradeable bounce till around March and will probably get out again mid Feb unless I have to cut my losses and run!
I am partially in now. I don't have a lot of money but try to do what I can. Already in on
5000 IGR paid @ 0.135
10000 RMSOC paid @ 0.125
Some physical gold and silver and the remainder in cash.
Tomorrow I will be going long on RMS, TRY, IHK, IZZ (EWH and FXI if you're on an international account) all at roughly the $1000 per holding mark.
I think we are in for a tradeable bounce till around March and will probably get out again mid Feb unless I have to cut my losses and run!
Wysiwyg
Everyone wants money
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The big question is .. would you hold a long contract if bought in at 3200 (XJO)?
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Exactly. This is the most important aspect, the application.
How much of the move can you catch and do you have the conviction to ride the move. Personally, as I only trade intraday, I don't, but caught 210 ticks intraday Friday. If more buying pressure comes in intraday (and the instos will need too in order to do their volume), I will try ride it.
Funny to see the SPI almost leading Asia and the world at the moment.
