How low can the All Ords go?

[Dangerous]

could those saying buffet is buying point to what he is buying?...

From what i have read, your research will show that he isn't actually buying that many stocks - only a select few and T-bonds.

It is obvious now that the all ords will break 3000. all i'll say is that we would be hoping for resistance at 2800.

 

[nizar]

could those saying buffet is buying point to what he is buying?...

LOL i remember he bought a $5billion stake in Goldman Sachs sometime ago because he must have saw "value" (he must have coz he certainly wouldnt have been buying it on T/A LOL). And what happened next? It plummeted even more

 

[Nyden]

I think we may very well be approaching the bottom, and have taken out a position to gain potential exposure to this. Either way, I'm very happy with the position either way (Woodside ) - the news articles have got to be something of an indicator for this. Just look at them, nearly all of them suggest that there's no end in sight! Soon you'll have the 11pm Channel 10 analysts telling us to buy gold ... golly, I'll put the farm on equities when that happens :

 

[MRC & Co]

the news articles have got to be something of an indicator for this. Just look at them, nearly all of them suggest that there's no end in sight!

Yes, a very very good indicator.

Could well be a bounce coming.

Perhaps a little false break or a DB reversal? In the short-term anyways. Feel we are going lower eventually, Australia hasn't officially even hit recession yet, but it's as sure bet as any!

 

[Logique]

It is obvious now that the all ords will break 3000. all i'll say is that we would be hoping for resistance at 2800.

I'd go along with that. Unfortunately I see no bottom in sight for US market indices. It would take a monumental effort for us to hold out against this.

 

[cutz]

G’Day,

I’ve just observed another bottom indicator; Koshie was on the telly promoting cash in the form of bank deposit as a safe investment, cos the market has dropped 50% since 07.

I don't normally watch the morning show but luckily my missus had the telly on and the segment just caught me attention.

Some quality advice there.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

Just curious on some fellow posters views on if this recent correction (can we call it that yet) has legs?
I get the feeling that there has been a change of sentiment lately and now some are acknowledging that these "green shots" or second half recovery are not going to materialize. Leading laging indicators blah blah blah.
The simple fact is that unemployment is getting out of control and people are going to spend less and that is going to push back a recovery. I find it comical that these market commontators 6 months ago were preaching about a second half recovery and now they are saying June 2010??
They didn't see it coming, they are dropping the ball to fix it and they have no idea when it will be over. (but who does?)
I get the feeling we will retest the lows as there was no reason to rally from them.
Is Australia any different after all, and why?

I read posters saying energy energy energy and it reminds me of tech tech tech.
We will soon find out.

Best

G

 

[Real1ty]

It is obvious now that the all ords will break 3000. all i'll say is that we would be hoping for resistance at 2800.

Really?

And what is your prediction based on?

 

[matty2.0]

LOL i remember he bought a $5billion stake in Goldman Sachs sometime ago because he must have saw "value" (he must have coz he certainly wouldnt have been buying it on T/A LOL). And what happened next? It plummeted even more

This is just a silly.
Have you looked at GS price now?? He's up like 50% almost on his investment in GS.
Do your research or don't post ill-informed comments.

 

[So_Cynical]

LOL ^^^^ nothing like quoting 4 month old posts.

 

[nunthewiser]

LOL ^^^^ nothing like quoting 4 month old posts.

agreed

some pearlers there calling a bounce also but them ones seem not to be quoted yet

 

[nunthewiser]

heres another one that can be quoted within 4 months if one wishes

3000-2700

a.nun

 

[skc]

heres another one that can be quoted within 4 months if one wishes

3000-2700

a.nun

3000 minus 2700 = 300.

I don't think we will get that low.

 

[Gordon Gekko]

heres another one that can be quoted within 4 months if one wishes

3000-2700

a.nun

Speaking of quotes where's DAVO?

"This is not the bottom" 2700

I think we might see it or near anyway.

G

 

[skc]

This is just a silly.
Have you looked at GS price now?? He's up like 50% almost on his investment in GS.
Do your research or don't post ill-informed comments.

For the record, Buffy bought in at around $115. Today GS is about $145. It did once go down 50% after he invested but has now recovered. Buffy also had warrants to buy more at $115.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/24/business/24goldman.html

 

[wayneL]

FYI - An article in today's Money Morning (UK based) - via email:

Why Australia Won't Escape The Crunch..

“The Aussies aren’t as confident or brash as they normally are”.

That’s Steve Harmison talking about the cricket (the Ashes) starting on Wednesday, of course. But he could equally well have been talking about the Australian economy.

Although Australian shares have done well recently, problems are about to hit the country’s finances. And it could now be time to sell out Down Under...

Along with almost every other world stock market, Aussie shares have done well over the last four months. The All Ordinaries index of the country’s largest 500 companies has rallied 23% from its early March low. But what sets Australia apart from virtually every other developed economy, is that after 17 years of unbroken economic expansion it hasn’t (technically at least) gone into recession.

Yet dodging ‘negative growth’ is not down to the country somehow avoiding what’s been happening elsewhere. It’s just that the Aussie government has doled out large chunks of cash to lower-income earners, and - unlike in the US and the UK - consumers have been cajoled into keeping on spending. Without that, PM Kevin Rudd admits, the economy would already have shrunk about 0.2%.

A once buoyant economy is buckling

But the bad news is now stacking up thick and fast. In May exports fell 5% from April to a 14-month low. And despite capital goods imports crumbling 14% - a sign companies are slashing capital spending - the trade deficit is widening, which is a downer for the Aussie dollar.

On the domestic front, things are even bleaker. Lending by the nation’s bank’s fell back 0.1% in May as company borrowing slipped by 0.7%. Job adverts are more than 50% lower than last year, says ANZ bank. Meanwhile, prospects for the building industry are looking grim. May new home sales tumbled almost 6% from the previous month, the first fall this year. Worse, approvals to build or renovate houses and apartments slumped 12.5% in May from April, the biggest drop since November 2002.

What’s more, out in Western Australia – mining territory - home repossessions for the year to 30th June have just doubled compared with the previous year, to a record high, due to rising unemployment. Overall the last six months have seen more repossession applications than in any full year since records began nine years ago.

Sound familiar? This does seem like shades of the States and Britain. Yet even worse, the real trouble hasn’t really started yet.

“The full brunt of the deepest and most synchronised post-war global recession has yet fully to bear down on Australia”, says Su-Lin Ong at RBC Capital Markets, “export income, the terms of trade and business investment are all set to move substantially lower in 2009”. In other words, Australia just won’t be able to defy global economic gravity any longer.

When your domestic economy is up the creek, it’s more than handy to have a wealth of natural resources to help to balance the books. But there’s a problem here too.

Why China can’t save Australia

Exports will be coming even more under the cosh. Take iron ore. Already, Australian producers are being forced to slash prices to keep customers interested. The Chinese – Australia’s biggest overall export buyers - recently demanded price reductions of up to 45%.

It may not come to that, but a major cut is on the cards. For the moment, as we discussed in the magazine recently (Seven safe stocks that will last longer than the rally – if you're not already a subscriber, click here to get your first three issues free), the Chinese are cashing in on sharply lower commodity prices to stockpile as much as they can.

But leaving aside all the predictably upbeat talk from Beijing officials, economic growth isn’t really happening for the Chinese right now. And Australia isn’t the only exporter to China who’ll hurt as a result. Overall Chinese shipments from Japan plunged 30% year-on-year on May following a 26% slump in April, indicating that the Chinese economy is really so sluggish it needs far fewer imports.

“China isn’t turning out to be an engine of growth for Asia”, says Bloomberg’s William Pesek, and “if you think China will power a global recovery, think again”. A couple of weeks ago, Albert Edwards of Societe Generale was even blunter: “Nowhere in the world fills me with more scepticism than the Chinese economic recovery. China could be the biggest disappointment yet”.

Time to exit Australian stocks

In a nutshell, it’s becoming ever harder to work out what will get the Australian economy moving again. Yet measured in sterling, Aussie shares have outscored both the FTSE 100 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by hefty margins so far in 2009, rising over 6% compared with a 4.5% drop in London and a 16% Wall Street dip.

Great if you’ve been on board, but the good times could be coming to an end. Dumping Australian shares now looks right – particularly London-quoted Aussie-based miners such as Rio Tinto (LSE: RIO), already up 60% in 2009 on hopes of a commodity-driven global recovery.

Meanwhile – weather permitting - enjoy the cricket!

 

[skyQuake]

G’Day,

I’ve just observed another bottom indicator; Koshie was on the telly promoting cash in the form of bank deposit as a safe investment, cos the market has dropped 50% since 07.

I don't normally watch the morning show but luckily my missus had the telly on and the segment just caught me attention.

Some quality advice there.

Haha i just noticed this post and post date

This 'indicator' definitely going into my books

 

[moXJO]

FYI - An article in today's Money Morning (UK based) - via email:

Jealous whinging poms

I live close to bhp steelworks, and the have pushed ahead the opening of the blast furnace because of demand. And expect more demand in coming months. Also noticed the coke works (that is in the middle of a suburb down here) open both night and day recently. The boats were lined up out to sea as well. Someone was telling me the ports were also going flat out. But I suppose figures don't lie

I was expecting some kind of fall in the market and hopefully property. But a unit I was looking at buying as an IP sold in about 3 weeks. And if anything property has risen again down here. I'm as busy as every and I don't even advertise.

 

[SittingDuck]

J
I live close to bhp steelworks.

I'll pay the rest of your comment, but BHP don't own a steelworks anymore !

Yes, ships are lining up, and the blast furnace is coming on line. The port is starting to live again.

 

[moXJO]

I'll pay the rest of your comment, but BHP don't own a steelworks anymore !

.

Bluescope or whatever they changed it to.