Those bastard didn't charge you an arm and a leg.My new Stratco shed thats coming will drive demand
How Far Will The Market Fall?
- Thread starter IFocus
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IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
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I didn't feel completely raped after paying
The spec is OK for what it is plus they changed a few things for me.
It gets delivered 1st of May guess I'll find out putting it up.
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A tip, that you may already have covered, if it doesn't include insulation under the roof tin. Grab some like insulbreak or similar and get the guys to chuck it under the roof sheets, it makes it bearable in summer.I didn't feel completely raped after paying
The spec is OK for what it is plus they changed a few things for me.
It gets delivered 1st of May guess I'll find out putting it up.
Just a thought, but you probably have already covered it.
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Market thought:
The first leg down was sharp and deep.
The reflexive rally since then has reflected relative strength of different sectors and countries.
Everyone is speculating about V bottom vs re-test of the lows or whatever. People are thinking the next leg will be the same as the first leg.
My thoughts are that we will probably go lower, but it is going to be an ugly/drawn out/choppy route.
The most common market reaction after big vol spikes across all asset classes is extended chop, even within a trending environment.
Those positioned for a repeat of the first leg might eventually be right in price, but not in time and space.
The first leg down was sharp and deep.
The reflexive rally since then has reflected relative strength of different sectors and countries.
Everyone is speculating about V bottom vs re-test of the lows or whatever. People are thinking the next leg will be the same as the first leg.
My thoughts are that we will probably go lower, but it is going to be an ugly/drawn out/choppy route.
The most common market reaction after big vol spikes across all asset classes is extended chop, even within a trending environment.
Those positioned for a repeat of the first leg might eventually be right in price, but not in time and space.
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Good summation IB, I can't help but feel the underlying market fallout, isn't going to be as bad as expected.
Discretionary spending, hospitality, tourism and education will be hammered, but the productive side of the economy still seems to be ticking over, I feel the Government spend has kept the consumer staples ticking over which flows through into the agricultural sector and mining is still bubbling along.
So as you say, I also think if there is a fall or rise, it will be a long protracted event.
There will be good news mixed with the bad.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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...and central banks are buying everything in sight
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Buying junk bonds or whatever in the secondary markets using bank reserves is completely ineffective and will have no effect on the real economy and if it has any effect on asset market it is only via a trick of perception on real money accounts who are foolish enough to believe the Fed has power, not by virtue of any technical actions they took.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Yeah but that's not all they're buying
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Bank reserves are inert.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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So are the chemical properties of Gold.
The alphabet soup of Fed activities (both disclosed and undisclosed) are distortionary(sic) for price discovery however.
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An issue I see is the contrast between Australia and the US with the background situation of COVID-19 and responses to it.
Given this is an Australian site and most of us are investing at least partially on the ASX there's a natural tendency to focus on the Australian situation. Looking at the US though, well they're on track to hit 1 million COVID-19 cases about Tuesday - Wednesday next week Australian time. They've got a shockingly high death rate and overall a situation that's drastically worse than that in Australia at the present time.
Whilst Australia might be considering re-opening for business a few weeks from now, it's going to be considerably longer in the US at least unless they're willing to end up with a huge death toll. It's hard to say exactly what the time lag is, but Australia achieved a leveling off in active cases 3 weeks ago and that has since been followed by decline. The US hasn't achieved that leveling off yet, so they're at least 3 weeks behind where we are and probably longer. It's not back to business as usual in a hurry.
So far as the market is concerned, well my concern is that no matter what factors either technical or fundamental might support the ASX going up or sideways, we could well see it dragged down by influences from the US in particular. Some will argue that there's not really that much correlation between the two but I'll pose a question. If the S&P 500 re-tests the lows or goes to new lows, then does anyone seriously think the ASX won't at least see a decent slump?
Given this is an Australian site and most of us are investing at least partially on the ASX there's a natural tendency to focus on the Australian situation. Looking at the US though, well they're on track to hit 1 million COVID-19 cases about Tuesday - Wednesday next week Australian time. They've got a shockingly high death rate and overall a situation that's drastically worse than that in Australia at the present time.
Whilst Australia might be considering re-opening for business a few weeks from now, it's going to be considerably longer in the US at least unless they're willing to end up with a huge death toll. It's hard to say exactly what the time lag is, but Australia achieved a leveling off in active cases 3 weeks ago and that has since been followed by decline. The US hasn't achieved that leveling off yet, so they're at least 3 weeks behind where we are and probably longer. It's not back to business as usual in a hurry.
So far as the market is concerned, well my concern is that no matter what factors either technical or fundamental might support the ASX going up or sideways, we could well see it dragged down by influences from the US in particular. Some will argue that there's not really that much correlation between the two but I'll pose a question. If the S&P 500 re-tests the lows or goes to new lows, then does anyone seriously think the ASX won't at least see a decent slump?
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OK, my turn to guess. Let's see...
… will it be the US shale oil producers !It would be funny to see them start a program abbreviated as STIMMYAs you said more probably more undisclosed ones, but below is some of the disclosed
View attachment 102566
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Well, you never know in time. For now, get your head around these...It would be funny to see them start a program abbreviated as STIMMY
It just goes on and on... Enjoy !
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That comment seems so long ago. Gold and oil have both gone up and down since then. The XAO still struggles to go up and the bounce off the low is only 38%. There's been plenty of opportunities to trade stocks in the bounce off the lows but that seems to have petered out. Buying now seems like chasing. I've gone to cash anticipating another dip to the low but there's no panic selling atm. Talk about easing restrictions and restarting the economy has strengthened the demand. Nobody has a clue how the shutdown has impacted most companies until they report. Ascertaining value must be difficult without information. I ride the coat tails of the large insto investors and I'm still waiting for them to show up.
If the XAO closes above 5600 I have to start buying, but I'll do it cautiously and sparingly. I'd love to see a dip to the low again soon. In the meanwhile I'm buying into gold rallies, shorting oil rallies and day trading US equities.
If the XAO closes above 5600 I have to start buying, but I'll do it cautiously and sparingly. I'd love to see a dip to the low again soon. In the meanwhile I'm buying into gold rallies, shorting oil rallies and day trading US equities.
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I have also been very much on the cautious side and not having the confidence to participate, especially with the big Banks not participating in the rally. There is signs they may join in, based on price rise today:
My thinking was, without broader market participation, you can get caught up in some of the growth speculation stocks that are bouncing back. If history is any guide, they will usually reverse the moment I catch them after chasing the fast rallies
Anyway, today I have decided to dip the toe in, very selectively though because I think some sectors may be too risky to venture into even now.
So I bought Beach Energy Ltd (BPT) today which is a really well run stock in the Energy sector, been following this stock for years. Beach has cash to withstand the Oil crash and no debt as well as low production costs. Price has crashed along with all the other risky Energy stocks in the sector giving me a chance to buy around 50% discount to the Jan peak. Will update purchase details in Speculative Stock Portfolio later in the evening...
My thinking was, without broader market participation, you can get caught up in some of the growth speculation stocks that are bouncing back. If history is any guide, they will usually reverse the moment I catch them after chasing the fast rallies
Anyway, today I have decided to dip the toe in, very selectively though because I think some sectors may be too risky to venture into even now.
So I bought Beach Energy Ltd (BPT) today which is a really well run stock in the Energy sector, been following this stock for years. Beach has cash to withstand the Oil crash and no debt as well as low production costs. Price has crashed along with all the other risky Energy stocks in the sector giving me a chance to buy around 50% discount to the Jan peak. Will update purchase details in Speculative Stock Portfolio later in the evening...
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@aus_trader "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" chart confirms "dipping your toe in" at this time is warranted as a buy signal has been generated today.
"The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" has the uncanny ability in picking the move. Will this move be successful, only time will tell.
Skate.
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Excellent Skate, always like getting some technical support to back a buying decision.
This stock has fallen far more than what I expected, dragged down by the broader market sell down as well as ETF sell down. BPT is in the ASX top 200, so any of those local Index ETF's would have it as one of it's constituents.
I also bought a finger-licking stock close to the market close
. Will detail that one as well as BPT later in the evening in the spec portfolio thread.