How Far Will The Market Fall?

[aus_trader]

I don't get the rally.
Not complaining as I held a bunch of afterpay by accident.
But I was not expecting it to come back as hard as it did.

I was most surprised myself, especially by the Fintech sector strength, which is comprised of stocks like APT. After watching for a while, then denying for a while, then thinking if I should just go with the flow instead, decided to buy a Fintech junior to get exposure to this speeding sector.

 

[qldfrog]

If my years in the market have told me anything, it is: you have 2 options, go multidecade with value based dividends and invest for an annuation style income , aka what millions did with banks and blue chips.
just hope you are lucky to invest when the market is at low tide and repeat, time in the market, value during crash, hold on.
Or follow the lemmings during boom and crash, no need to be right, just agile to jump in time and understand the psyche
Very hard to do when you are a contrarian, sceptical question asking fiercely individual guy..a pain in the xxx to many...
So i try to rely on formula and indicators to read the crystal ball

 

[Trendnomics]

Another question this thread should've asked, is: "How far will the market retrace?". The current market is reminiscent of the large 2008 retracement, prior to the subsequent crash to the 2009 low's. I can fondly remember this period, as this is when I was still cutting my teeth in the world of equity trading.

2008 Retracement:


2020 Retracement:


I'm calling XAO @ 6030 as the peak of the current retracement.

I'm not a fundamentals trader, nor is this call influencing my systematic trading (I'm currently still largely cash, per my system's discretion). But seriously, if you believe in a total V-shaped economic recovery or that government stimulus is our saving grace, then you should open a unicorn petting zoo.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

ASX 200 (black) and S&P 500 priced in AUD (blue) from 23rd March,

alternative title: when FX vol crushes your growth portfolios relative perf

 

[InsvestoBoy]

See this discussion with @Sharkman https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/nab-national-australia-bank.1093/page-32#post-1069967 on the NAB thread.

Post Corona rally, VEU up ~11%, IVV up ~15%, STW up (per above) ~27%.

FX vol and sector composition matters.

 

[systematic]

But seriously, if you believe in a total V-shaped economic recovery or that government stimulus is our saving grace, then you should open a unicorn petting zoo.

 

[MrChow]

S&P500 isn't even priced for a bear market at the moment (technically -19%).

So I think short-term movements: pushing -40% was oversold, getting back within -20% is now overbought, are overshooting both ways and we should see a reversal for some balance.

On a longer time scale I am high conviction that they can get back to 3000 before the end of September. I think a secondary wave from October on is the real danger.

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/how-far-will-the-market-fall.35253/page-20#post-1064407

S&P500 has made it back over 3000 as expected.

But the risk / reward now looks worse to me than when there was accepted panic in March.

 

[aus_trader]

Only thing it's having some really good days like on Friday:


So watching how this all unfolds going forward... As I am exposed to "Long Equities", as I have bought some stocks with the bounce from the March Lows.