How Far Will The Market Fall?

[finicky]

Gold to $800-900 USD in 2020
Consistent with David Hunter's view. Kondriatev Winter references.

 

[aus_trader]

Gold to $800-900 USD in 2020
Consistent with David Hunter's view. Kondriatev Winter references.

Sometimes I wander if these views being spread around is for these guys to pick up Gold at a discount to the current price. They do believe much higher prices in the long term. So what's their short term agenda ? And how do they know it's going to more than halve to $800 in the short term, what crystal ball do they have ?

I think it's a perfect recipe to spook the Gold and Gold stock investors to let go of their positions, so these guys can pick them up on the cheap. Even I got spooked when I saw $800 Gold, but then I started thinking... what's in it for them

 

[Smurf1976]

Kondriatev Winter references

The only alarm bell that rings is that I'd forgotten the term after reading lots and lots about it.

In 2002.

A child born when I was reading that is now an adult. VHS tapes were still in widespread use back then as were CRT TV's and there was no such thing as an iPhone or YouTube. Music released back then is either now long forgotten or considered as retro. And so on. An awful lot's happened in that time but anyone waiting for the Kondratiev Winter has likely given up waiting by now.

That's not shooting down your posting of it but sounding a warning about the concept. It may well be right but it has been claimed to be "imminent" for a very long time now......

 

[qldfrog]

In term of market gall my paper daily trading system cancelled all its 7 buys after the US market results.
So 7 buy yesterday at 9pm 0 this morning.How many traders or trader systems will be like mine today?

 

[PZ99]

In term of market gall my paper daily trading system cancelled all its 7 buys after the US market results.
So 7 buy yesterday at 9pm 0 this morning.How many traders or trader systems will be like mine today?

Any sells ?

 

[qldfrog]

Any sells ?

sells unchanged..had a few.
as i just paper trade it did not get too involved but for example MYR was paper buy Monday, and paper sold yesterday or Tuesday, initially a buy today which was discarded by DJ and VIX results last night.
Just wondering if we are getting into that second fall many expected

 

[PZ99]

I have a use for days like this... I sold BOQ at 4.65 open and got them back for 4.60 - nothing to crow about but for me that's a 5c dividend for the day

 

[basilio]

I think the next three months in the US will be critical to where the economies, the US stock stock market and the world economies end up.

Trump and the republicans have decided to open up the economy again. All the evidence and medical advice is that the outbreak is not under control, there are insufficient tests available and the contact tracing capacities to track down sources of new outbreaks are minimal.

Professor Fauci has warned that in the event of fresh and extended outbreaks it may be impossible to control the epidemic. That would mean a majority of people , 250m plus, becoming infected at some stage

It took two months for US deaths to go from 11 to 80,000. With the push to reopen the economy in full swing and the virus now fully entrenched across all the US what are are chances of business staying operational? Translate that into earnings, confidence and the market.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I think the next three months in the US will be critical to where the economies, the US stock stock market and the world economies end up.

Trump and the republicans have decided to open up the economy again. All the evidence and medical advice is that the outbreak is not under control, there are insufficient tests available and the contact tracing capacities to track down sources of new outbreaks are minimal.

Professor Fauci has warned that in the event of fresh and extended outbreaks it may be impossible to control the epidemic. That would mean a majority of people , 250m plus, becoming infected at some stage

It took two months for US deaths to go from 11 to 80,000. With the push to reopen the economy in full swing and the virus now fully entrenched across all the US what are are chances of business staying operational? Translate that into earnings, confidence and the market.

Thanks @basilio .

I said somewhere, unsure if in this thread that with coronavirus if one trades daily, change to weekly, weekly to six monthly and six monthly to 1-2 yearly.

This is not the season for the "brave".

It ain't going away soon.

And we are far from the bottom for some stocks.

gg

 

[Smurf1976]

This is not the season for the "brave".

It ain't going away soon.

And we are far from the bottom for some stocks.

Looking at the S&P 500 as an example, it's currently at the same level it was at in October 2019 so 7 months ago.

Looking at the real economy however, well there's entire industries shut down and everything from local theatre performances through to the Olympic Games is cancelled. The current actual economy and the medium term (1 - 2 years) outlook are both vastly inferior to those of 7 months ago.

To the extent there's an argument for stocks to rise, the obvious one is inflation.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Looking at the S&P 500 as an example, it's currently at the same level it was at in October 2019 so 7 months ago.

Looking at the real economy however, well there's entire industries shut down and everything from local theatre performances through to the Olympic Games is cancelled. The current actual economy and the medium term (1 - 2 years) outlook are both vastly inferior to those of 7 months ago.

To the extent there's an argument for stocks to rise, the obvious one is inflation.

I don't follow the S&P 500 or the USA economy in general.

I don't understand their way of doing things in any sphere.

All I know is that they are going to sh*t in a basket and I believe that the S&P 500 will go there too.

I believe some ASX 200 stocks will survive but many will go ar*e up or get taken over so price movement will not be uniform

Inflation may play a part but the extent to which that will occur will be determined by the virus, not by economists.

gg

 

[aus_trader]

Looking at the S&P 500 as an example, it's currently at the same level it was at in October 2019 so 7 months ago.

Looking at the real economy however, well there's entire industries shut down and everything from local theatre performances through to the Olympic Games is cancelled. The current actual economy and the medium term (1 - 2 years) outlook are both vastly inferior to those of 7 months ago.

To the extent there's an argument for stocks to rise, the obvious one is inflation.

I like your thinking there Smurf and for someone who prefers simple any day over complex (like myself), what you said makes sense. But I don't think there is real inflation in the economy, in fact there is more likely to be deflation due to industry disruptions and shutdowns which has led to an uptick in unemployment.

The big Caps and tech stocks staging a price recovery I reckon, is driving the index.

 

[qldfrog]

With US down again today/tonight, we should see some real fall today.
What the hell was yesterday: from -1.4 to +0.3..in a starting trade bash with China and a world on its knees?
Actually i think the ASX rejoiced at the prospect of my state buying Virgin...Paluchet dream of becoming an air hostie becoming...what a world...
All this could be so funny if we as taxpayers and investors were not to pay the cost ultimately

 

[Smurf1976]

With US down again today/tonight, we should see some real fall today.

You could well be right, I'm somewhere in the middle, but the difficulty I'm having with the bearish case is that a significant decline from this point would be among the most anticipated bear markets ever which I take as a bullish signal.

 

[qldfrog]

Agreed on that planned fall..

 

[Dona Ferentes]

There was an article yesterday, syndicated widely, by an ' influencial columnist' about going to cash. I read it and went through it again; all I could see was the same old stuff, nothing new.

Too late bud.

 

[wayneL]

You could well be right, I'm somewhere in the middle, but the difficulty I'm having with the bearish case is that a significant decline from this point would be among the most anticipated bear markets ever which I take as a bullish signal.

I'm a fan of contrarian contrarianism. When there are many contrarians, the contrarian view is actually counter contrarian. Lots of new players are jumping into the market like madmen.

But, the current market is simply not a mechanism for true price discovery, so who the hell knows?

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Looking at the S&P 500 as an example, it's currently at the same level it was at in October 2019 so 7 months ago.

Looking at the real economy however, well there's entire industries shut down and everything from local theatre performances through to the Olympic Games is cancelled. The current actual economy and the medium term (1 - 2 years) outlook are both vastly inferior to those of 7 months ago.

Yeah but you are reading the vagaries of market cap based weighting into this supposed disparity between index and economy.

Equal weighted SPX to market cap weighted SPX since Oct 2019


or market weighted Russell 2000 to market weighted SPX since Oct 2019

To the extent there's an argument for stocks to rise, the obvious one is inflation.

In general, stocks don't do well in inflationary circumstances until after the first inflation shock has hit and even then they just tend to track inflation in nominal terms, not outperform in real terms.

That said, inflation might be an argument for stocks to rise on the ASX and emerging markets where the weights are heavily tilted to cyclicals, especially materials and financials. Won't be the same for the US.

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Gold to $800-900 USD in 2020
Consistent with David Hunter's view. Kondriatev Winter references.

uhhh his view is exactly opposite of David Hunters view? i.e. Davids view is that gold will explode up, then down? This guy is saying gold is about to ~halve and then explode upwards?

What's the point of posting trash like this? Do you really expect to make money in the markets following random Elliott Wave prognosticators on YouTube? Hoping people on here will be tell you "yeah, great call, let's all go short in our CFD accounts"?

 

[InsvestoBoy]

The message of the statement is that the RBA, in its March measures, has done all it can sensibly do to help bridge the downturn. The heavy lifting has to be done with fiscal policy. And that's Government, and I can't see them doing it.

That was even the message before this crisis, and the same one being spouted by the other inept CBs, "we have pulled all the levers we can pull, and even though we told you they would work lead to a glorious inflation of 2%, for some reason unrelated to our incompetence, we'll need you to go ahead and do some fiscal stimulus too please".

For some reason, people still listen to these goofballs at the RBA and other CBs who are just consistently wrong in their forecasts for growth and inflation and completely unable to influence either despite all their "quantitative" easing.