How Far Will The Market Fall?

[MrChow]

I see May/June as a key period as the world will be looking to Australia and NZ to see what a Winter wave looks like. If it's more severe than the current it's going to scare global markets for 6 months.

 

[aus_trader]

I see May/June as a key period as the world will be looking to Australia and NZ to see what a Winter wave looks like. If it's more severe than the current it's going to scare global markets for 6 months.

Yes, we have to monitor the numbers going into peak Flu season...

 

[IFocus]

From a personal perspective, I'm struggling to work out where the demand for iron ore is going to come from,

My new Stratco shed thats coming will drive demand

 

[jbocker]

I see May/June as a key period as the world will be looking to Australia and NZ to see what a Winter wave looks like. If it's more severe than the current it's going to scare global markets for 6 months.

I don't think they will notice, probably think we don't have a 'real' winter. If they do watch us and we keep up our good work and keep the numbers to a minimum, it may lead them into making false assumptions.

 

[sptrawler]

From a personal perspective, I'm struggling to work out where the demand for iron ore is going to come from, post the virus.

Well it looks as though BHP is thinking along the same lines.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/com...clouds-commodity-outlook-20200420-p54lcs.html

 

[finicky]

Anyone else getting a creepy uneasy feeling today? I don't like how my 'portfolio' is behaving. I checked out the ASX200 (XJO) chart then resorted to the VAS chart for volume information which only bemused me more because volume looks low and downtrending recently - weakening rally? VAS being an ASX200 reflective etf from Vanguard. I'm in the camp of a 3 wave down bear market, not a V recovery, so I've been dreading signs of a sputtering rally. The XJO chart suggests a break of any uptrending support line for the rally that you might draw - bearish rising wedgie? DJIA futures negative after a down night yesterday, gnash gnash.

 

[wayneL]

My new Stratco shed thats coming will drive demand

I'm handmaking my shoes from Australian or English (the profile steelnot made here), rather than Chinese readymades, so doing my bit.

 

[sptrawler]

I'm handmaking my shoes from Australian or English (the profile steelnot made here), rather than Chinese readymades, so doing my bit.

I hope your embossing your initials and made in Brisbane, they will probably become collectibles.
In a 1000 years time they will say, things were that tough in 2020 we had to start using horses again and even had to make our own shoes.

 

[wayneL]

I hope your embossing your initials and made in Brisbane, they will probably become collectibles.
In a 1000 years time they will say, things were that tough in 2020 we had to start using horses again and even had to make our own shoes.

I stamp them if they're good enough, but if they're crap I don't want anyone to know they are mine

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I'm handmaking my shoes from Australian or English (the profile steelnot made here), rather than Chinese readymades, so doing my bit.

Good to know @wayneL . I usually get mine sent over from Crockett and Jones or Barker in London.

If you ramp your operation up it might save me a journey to London every three years for a re-measuring. By the way, Barker have a sale on atm with many brands under $1000. A steal.

I hate going through LHR. Give me AMS any old day.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The market continues it's slow inevitable march down.

gg

 

[basilio]

I think the economic reality of what is happening around the world is going to start impinging on the nominal stock market values of current companies and whole industries.

For example I think the oil industry could be seeing a terminal turning point as renewable energy projects gather pace and in particular electrification of transport quickens.
The travel and tourist industry ? Wouldn't be holding my breath on airlines and cruise ships returning in a big way. That then knocks out many "tourist traps".

Overall I also wonder how quickly people will willingly go back to mindless consumerism? New products just for the sake of it ?

Last couple of days have seen big drops on ASX.

 

[flightcrank]

I'm in the camp of a 3 wave down bear market, not a V recovery, so I've been dreading signs of a sputtering rally.

it was never gonna be a V shape. Looks like we're at the top of a dead cat bounce.

 

[MrChow]

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/20/cor...p-to-55-times-bigger-than-reported-cases.html

If the mortality rate is 55 times less than reported it's on a par with the regular flu.

The strategy then is to just keep the sick and at risk at home and let everyone go on with their lives which would be hugely bullish news for the medium term.

 

[aus_trader]

For example I think the oil industry could be seeing a terminal turning point as renewable energy projects gather pace and in particular electrification of transport quickens.

I think this is a short to medium term decimation of oil prices. Oil will still play an important part in the economy once economic activity resumes at some stage in the future.

It'll probably be a slow recovery though. For example it'll take a long time for cruise ships and airlines to come back online. They use tanks of fuel that is produced from crude oil. There is no alternative to oil for these fuel guzzlers however. Haven't come across any running on a re-chargeable battery yet.

 

[Smurf1976]

I think this is a short to medium term decimation of oil prices. Oil will still play an important part in the economy once economic activity resumes at some stage in the future.

One question which comes to mind is the extent that any hedge funds or other institutional investors have "blown up" with the extreme volatility in oil prices?

Given that we've seen moves in a matter of minutes which under normal circumstances would take years, it's at least possible that someone somewhere has lost serious $ with it all and is now financially dead or close enough to it. Someone as in "someone who matters".

That's pure speculation on my part but it would seem at least plausible.

 

[peter2]

The tide has definitely gone out in the oil market and we'll soon see who's been swimming without bathers.

 

[basilio]

One question which comes to mind is the extent that any hedge funds or other institutional investors have "blown up" with the extreme volatility in oil prices?

Given that we've seen moves in a matter of minutes which under normal circumstances would take years, it's at least possible that someone somewhere has lost serious $ with it all and is now financially dead or close enough to it. Someone as in "someone who matters".

That's pure speculation on my part but it would seem at least plausible.

Certainly on the cards isn't it ? Fact is most of the "investments" are sophisticated gambling games. When someone/something upends the tables the players can be seriously hurt - as can the people who are backing them.

 

[waterbottle]

I'm out.
Given what's happened to oil, I've decided to tighten my stops and I've been pushed out of this market for now.
Earnings + potential for contagion is too much risk for me

 

[sptrawler]

One question which comes to mind is the extent that any hedge funds or other institutional investors have "blown up" with the extreme volatility in oil prices?

Given that we've seen moves in a matter of minutes which under normal circumstances would take years, it's at least possible that someone somewhere has lost serious $ with it all and is now financially dead or close enough to it. Someone as in "someone who matters".

That's pure speculation on my part but it would seem at least plausible.

It is an interesting situation, I read Santos had 30% of 2020's oil production hedged at $43, that leaves 70% not hedged.
So if this is protracted, it will be haircuts all round.

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200403/pdf/44gp4gp7kytzgj.pdf