An Interesting blog article from a bloke with a bit of credibility:
Ernie is a quantitative trader and consultant who helps his clients implement automated, statistical trading strategies. He can be reached through www.epchan.com. Ernie has worked as a quantitative researcher and trader in various investment banks (Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse First Boston, Maple Securities) and hedge funds (Mapleridge Capital, Millennium Partners, MANE Fund Management) since 1996. He has a Ph.D. in physics from Cornell University.
http://epchan.blogspot.com/2007/02/in-praise-of-day-trading.html
In praise of day-trading
A recent article by Mark Hulbert in the NYTimes talked about the Value Line's rankings, and how this system is under-performing the market index in recent years. Mr. Hulbert asked Professor David Aronson of Baruch College whether this drop in performance means that the system has stopped working. Prof. Aronson says no: he believes that it takes 10 or more years [my emphasis] of under-performance of this strategy before one can say that it has stopped working! This statement, if taken out-of-context, is so manifestly untrue that it warrants some elaboration.
To evaluate whether a strategy has failed bears a lot of resemblance to evaluating whether a particular trade has failed. In my previous article on stop-loss, I outlined a method to determine how long it takes before we should exit a losing trade. This has to do with the historical average holding period of similar trades. This kind of thinking can also be applied to a strategy as a whole. If your strategy, like the Value Line system, holds a position for months or even years before replacing it with others, then yes, it may take many years to find out if the system has finally stopped working. On the other hand, if your system holds a position for just hours, or maybe just minutes, then no, it takes only a few months to find out! Why? Those who are well-versed in statistics know that the larger the sample size (in this case, the number of trades), the smaller the percent deviation from the mean return.
Which brings me to day-trading. In the popular press, day-trading has been given a bad-name. Everyone seems to think that those people who sit in sordid offices buying and selling stocks every minute and never holding over-night positions are no better than gamblers. And we all know how gamblers end up, right? Let me tell you a little secret: in my years working for hedge funds and prop-trading groups in investment banks, I have seen all kinds of trading strategies. In 100% of the cases, traders who have achieved spectacularly high Sharpe ratio (like 6 or higher), with minimal drawdown, are day-traders.
A little passage from the Tao Te Ching:
He who understands much, says little
He who understands little, says much
At over 5000 posts, that perhaps means I'm the last person you should listen to, but be careful who you listen to.
No charge.
Notwithstanding, day trading is incredibly simple, it ain't rocket science, there are no "secrets", only techniques and basic maths. The hard part is the head game.
Sort the maths, manage the emotions, and success is likely. Few manage to do this however, which exposes the difficulty.
No charge.
Good luck
So as a mod, I'm not entitled to participate in discussion and give an opinion?Your inuendo is inflamatory.
Your ability as a moderator at best is poor---no inept.
Your contribution to this thread is 3rd grade, most 10 yr olds can cut and paste.
Time and effort spent assisting others DIRECTLY with their questions is looked upon as self serving.
Un necessary and un warrented.
You abuse your position.
A little passage from the Tao Te Ching:
He who understands much, says little
He who understands little, says much
At over 5000 posts, that perhaps means I'm the last person you should listen to, but be careful who you listen to.
No charge
I find share trading to be exciting, I enjoy the excitement
Hi Wayne,
I agree daytrading has the potential to be much more profitable than longer term trading.
A super smooth equity curve, a high level of opportunity/frequency, and decreased market exposure are wonderful characteristics that only high frequency trading can offer.
BUT i must disagee that it is, as you put it, incredibly simple.
To trade multiple times a day using a mechanical system is something that is rare.
And to trade intraday on a discretionary basis requires years of experience, wouldn't you agree.
Much is written by me and others on the topic. It's not hard. The psychology is the hard part.Wayne can you please respond to my post as to how daytrading is incredibly simple.
Thanks.
BUT i must disagee that it is, as you put it, incredibly simple.
To trade multiple times a day using a mechanical system is something that is rare.
And to trade intraday on a discretionary basis requires years of experience, wouldn't you agree.
A couple of points here:BUT i must disagee that it is, as you put it, incredibly simple.
To trade multiple times a day using a mechanical system is something that is rare.
And to trade intraday on a discretionary basis requires years of experience, wouldn't you agree.
yep....I am not looking for something ridiculous like 20% per trade 3 times per day.... something realistic and consistent would be good, so I guess would 2%-3% per trade, say 2-3 times per week be a realistic expectation>?
TH, if time consumption is a factor, why not advise specialising in one sector/ instrument/ future etc.? Especially if the person only wants to make a handful of trades a week.
It sounds kind of similar to where I'm at. So my advice to someone at this point at the same time, who only wants to do a few trades, is to look at high probability set ups. Opens, closes, for starters perhaps.
ok.. fair enough...
where/how do I start....this is what I am a bit confused...
ok.. fair enough...
where/how do I start....this is what I am a bit confused...
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