Serious newbie wanting to learn

[CanOz]

NB, that's a gap fill and you could test it with code to see if over historical data a gap fill either resumes or kills the trend. The last bar before the gap may have stops accumulated where longs are to be stopped out and this could trigger a new trend. What I could suggest is either keep a hand ful of these types of plays in a folder and review the price action as it evolves to see if your hypothesis has merit enough to warrant further research or review many charts and keep statistics of this for review. It sure looks like a sell the news event has taken place, earnings related ?

 

[NewbieTrader1982]

NB, that's a gap fill and you could test it with code to see if over historical data a gap fill either resumes or kills the trend. The last bar before the gap may have stops accumulated where longs are to be stopped out and this could trigger a new trend. What I could suggest is either keep a hand ful of these types of plays in a folder and review the price action as it evolves to see if your hypothesis has merit enough to warrant further research or review many charts and keep statistics of this for review. It sure looks like a sell the news event has taken place, earnings related ?

interesting on the 13th (that long red bar) JB reported strong sales and profits. Is that what you mean by a news event? The 'smart money' may be selling on good news to trap the retail buyers? Also you said the last bar before the gap, its a wide spread closing at the top but the volume on that bar is even lower than the one preceding it. Is that the possible trap to get more longs in before selling off?

Also the fact that you can actually test this sh%t, meaning that long bar's historical performance is craaazy to a newbie mind like myself. Cool stuff

Its like being able to play black/red in the casino but choosing your own odds and limiting the risk side sharply. Very interesting indeed.

 

[tech/a]

Is that the possible trap to get more longs in before selling off?

For get all the conspiracy rubbish no one is trapping anyone.
Not here any way.
Futures/Currencies-- different-- there you do have BIG money.
(Its where T/H plays).

There is a lot more on this chart.

 

[NewbieTrader1982]

Futures interest me one day. Still gotta play in the kiddie pool

 

[CanOz]

Is that the possible trap to get more longs in before selling off?

For get all the conspiracy rubbish no one is trapping anyone.
Not here any way.
Futures/Currencies-- different-- there you do have BIG money.
(Its where T/H plays).

There is a lot more on this chart.

Looked like profit taking if the announcment caused a mark up, whats so "conspiracy theory" about that??

 

[tech/a]

Trap

I read it as some one or entity setting a TRAP on purpose to benifit.
See this sort of post/belief often. Particularly in small caps

 

[Wysiwyg]

Trap

I read it as some one or entity setting a TRAP on purpose to benifit.
See this sort of post/belief often. Particularly in small caps

With any exuberance bar it amazes me why people (and I have before) buy at extremities. I recall feeling the overwhelming desire to buy into the news or price action. Now these bars can be the start of higher moves so it is one of those grey zones where the next bar could be a scythe or a blessing. Previous support/resistance doesn't stop trends. Not an authority on the subject though.

 

[tech/a]

Love extremities

Buy high sell higher.
Just got to be able to read it

 

[Wysiwyg]

Let me re phrase that.

Gee whiz Tech I feel you are on the verge of busting the truth on volume and price relationships wide open.

Truth? That would eliminate more than 50% of trading talk. Kissin azz for your thereabouts truth though.

 

[tech/a]

You'll find it if you look hard enough

 

[Wysiwyg]

You'll find it if you look hard enough

Phew. For a moment I thought you were going to cough up the holy grail. Love your work Tech.

 

[tech/a]

That was last week

 

[tech/a]

Another look at JBH

 

[barney]

Trap

I read it as some one or entity setting a TRAP on purpose to benifit.
See this sort of post/belief often. Particularly in small caps

Understand your point tech ...... I think rather than the word trap, maybe the word 'escape' might be better suited ....

JBH is not Spec (which are often open to manipulation) so when the 'players' pumped this up on a breakout bar and sold into it heavily, I'd have to assume they were trying to 'create a market' to sell into and lighten their positions.

Dont know anything about JBH but the news was good (apparently), which gives a perfect opportunity for the price to be pushed higher with less resistance and generate a better exit price for those wanting out.

Doesnt mean it wont bounce off the current lows and go higher of course cause the 'players' may still have a few shares to get rid of

Just my mumblings on a Sat evening after losing our Zone boules match by 1 shot

 

[NewbieTrader1982]

Update:
Been studying (quite obsessively) hard VSA from a few sources, of course Tom Williams book included as well as studying hard candlesticks, doing Steve Nisons course. I'm spending upto 4 hours a day on there theory and 4 hours a day on charts to try and identify what im learning. It's truely eye opening. The amount of 'non random' events over and over is staggering. I will keep this up until i feel I'm ready to go live with a strategy in place.

About to devour some great money/risk management books. Also 2 books by Tharp on mindset.

All in all its coming together.

Now i know what @tech/a means when he says look at the low volume bars.

Consistently you can see buying climax (by insiders), then testing waiting for low volume before taking prices higher etc etc. same thing as selling climaxes by smart money then down thrust ( shooting star) to test demand before crashing prices gradually.

Also I've come to realise the left part of the chart is KEY to put what's happening in front into perspective and can change the entire meaning of current bars at times. Individual bars and volume is 1 thing but when put into the context of left hand side and then also with larger time frames gives the real significance . At least this is what I'm learning and seems to be evident in these charts as well.

With great risk/money management and staying disciplined I can imagine there is a decent chance at being profitable at some point and being consistent ( my assumption of course).

Over and out.

​

 

[traderxxx]

newby trader,

(the amount of non random events is stagering) i know what you mean,

referring to the spi,

the day of the brexit, the high was 5299, plumetted to 5040,ish. on the same day

the day of the trump election , (what was the high), you gessed it
high was (5299) plummeted to 5029. on the same day

waiting to see if mondays high is 5725, if overcome with strenghth
could test the highs again,

low 5673? could be.

 

[NewbieTrader1982]

newby trader,

(the amount of non random events is stagering) i know what you mean,

referring to the spi,

the day of the brexit, the high was 5299, plumetted to 5040,ish. on the same day

the day of the trump election , (what was the high), you gessed it
high was (5299) plummeted to 5029. on the same day

waiting to see if mondays high is 5725, if overcome with strenghth
could test the highs again,

low 5673? could be.

When prices plummeted it would be interesting to see the volume action and then volume/price action the next day or two. I'm certain the 'insiders' would have used the negative news to their advantage.

 

[Valued]

Just be careful with conspiracy theories about "insiders" and maybe not take it too far. There are probably some problems with those theories, especially in the futures markets and in forex. It is not as if volume is irrelevant (it is of course relevant) and it is not as if you don't see whiplash when news comes out but the more liquid markets like forex might be a bit more efficient then perhaps VSA would suggest. In the short term on the hourly you can see obvious inefficiencies in some respects but not on the longer time frame. I remember seeing the EURJPY going up 50 pips or so on Friday (meaning the euro was going up in value against the yen) but at the same time gold was rising, vix was rising, bonds were rising the dax was tanking, all signs of a risk off environment. In that risk off environment the EURJPY should be tanking not going up. It went up a bit, I shorted, and it's been a reasonably profitable position so far that I still am in. Now there are reasons it could have gone up by 50 pips despite that but I saw that it didn't make much sense for this to continue for more than a few hours given how money was flowing into risk off assets and so it was time to short that potential divergence between what the EURJPY was doing and what all other risk off assets were doing (the yen goes up in a risk off environment). Choosing why to go into EURJPY over other pairs though like USDJPY, GBPJPY, AUDJPY is another added complexity in forex since many pairs may give you exposure to the same underlying theme.

 

[NewbieTrader1982]

, I shorted, and it's been a reasonably profitable position so far that I still am in. Now there are reasons it could have gone up by 50 pips despite that but I saw that it didn't make much sense for this to continue for more than a few hours given how money was flowing into risk off assets and so it was time to short that potential divergence between what the EURJPY was doing and what all other risk off assets were doing .

Well done !

 

[tech/a]

And so it was/is