House prices to stagnate for 'years'

[robots]

hello,

yeah right,

well you would know all the "worker's" cottages had exactly that in them,

people who worked at the manufacturing in the area, and they saved and saved and saved,

sure plenty of them get around with the apron on in the front yard watering the concrete but they are down

thankyou

robots

 

[Judd]

hello,

yeah right,

well you would know all the "worker's" cottages had exactly that in them,

people who worked at the manufacturing in the area, and they saved and saved and saved,

sure plenty of them get around with the apron on in the front yard watering the concrete but they are down

thankyou

robots

You are being totally incoherent. There is no logic to your language or your sentence structure. However, I'm relaxed with that as it seems to be your normal pattern. Sure you don't have OCD? You may wish to check it out just in case.

 

[robots]

hello,

yes,

OCD, shcizophrenia, bi-polar all of them,

the high's are high as and the low's are low as

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

Excuse me, I worked in this area. Less than 1% of the pensioner population had anywhere near such assets. Stop believing your own propaganda.

59pc of Queensland retirees rely on the Goverment Old age pension of some $200 odd a week, many will eventually get roped into reverse mortgages with skyrocketing inflation.

 

[Tysonboss1]

The trend has been much less than 10% pa. Residential property price growth has historically been coupled to wage growth. Which makes sense, because wage earners (rather than professional speculators) have historically been the primary consumers of this good.

After accounting for rental returns, real estate has historically performed worse than the stock market, and marginally better than fixed interest (at the cost of greater volatility).

Well again your wrong here,....

Capital growth historically been very close to 10% and over 10% once rental return is calculated.

And secondly this thread is about whether property is stagnating which it clearly isn't in certain markets.

 

[numbercruncher]

You are being totally incoherent. There is no logic to your language or your sentence structure. However, I'm relaxed with that as it seems to be your normal pattern. Sure you don't have OCD? You may wish to check it out just in case.

Funnily enough he has quite a fan base here, read one recently who said he gives 1000x more credibility to robis posts than Information posted by major media outlets - strange world.

Maybe realestate is the new religion for Aussie investors, a pyramid scheme of epic proportions

 

[Tysonboss1]

which is absurd for such a sparcely populated continent..

Whats absurd is people using this fact an arguement,....

How is australians large tracks of desert going to lower demand in sydney?

Sydney may as well be an island,.... it is boxed in on all four sides,

east side - the ocean
west side - blue mountains
North side - national park
south side - national park and one of australias large military zones,....

Being the most sparsely populated countries means nothing if every one is trying to cram into 1hr of a capital city,...

 

[Tysonboss1]

59pc of Queensland retirees rely on the Goverment Old age pension of some $200 odd a week, many will eventually get roped into reverse mortgages with skyrocketing inflation.

Whats this got to do with property being viable as an investment?

 

[Tysonboss1]

Only a fool would be buying a property in this current market.

Not unless I was living in a car or a tent would I even consider the plunge!

People from Brisbane who listened to this post back in 2004 have turned out to be the fools,....

 

[xoa]

Well again your wrong here,....

Capital growth historically been very close to 10% and over 10% once rental return is calculated.

And secondly this thread is about whether property is stagnating which it clearly isn't in certain markets.

Let me give an example in Sydney, which has probably been the best performing market in recent Australian history. The average landed Sydney residential property cost $23,000 in 1970, and $523,000 in 2006.

That equates to a nominal return of about 9.5% pa.

But you need to consider that inflation averaged 10.4% pa in the 1970s, and 8.1% pa in the 1980s.

Accounting for inflation (which fell to 2.0% pa in the 1990s and 3.5% pa in 2000-2006), you get real capital gains of 2.85% pa, which is only slightly more than real wages growth.

Include rental returns, and it's clear that property has been a respectable earner. But it's not the free lunch that some people have made it out to be. It's underperformed the stock market, and requires a greater investment of time and effort.

 

[robots]

hello,

thats right tyson,

they could of been 2yrs into a residence, getting closer to expenses being similar to renters,

and also thats where i guess time in the market is ideal for many

thankyou

robots

 

[robots]

Let me give an example in Sydney, which has probably been the best performing market in recent Australian history. The average landed Sydney residential property cost $23,000 in 1970, and $523,000 in 2006.

That equates to a nominal return of about 9.5% pa.

But you need to consider that inflation averaged 10.4% pa in the 1970s, and 8.1% pa in the 1980s.

Accounting for inflation (which fell to 2.0% pa in the 1990s and 3.5% pa in 2000-2006), you get real capital gains of 2.85% pa, which is only slightly more than real wages growth.

Include rental returns, and it's clear that property has been a respectable earner. But it's not the free lunch that some people have made it out to be. It's underperformed the stock market, and requires a greater investment of time and effort.

hello,

care to give us a run down on the "genuine" return on investment,

or still skimming over that part

thankyou

robots

 

[xoa]

hello,

care to give us a run down on the "genuine" return on investment,

or still skimming over that part

thankyou

robots

What are you mumbling about? I just gave it: real capital gains of 2.85% pa in Sydney from 1970-2006, plus whatever you can rent it for (and obviously, minus the cost of maintenance, rates and taxes).

Before the recent boom, your real gains would have been more like 2.13% pa. It'll probably return to that level once the speculators give it a rest.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Let me give an example in Sydney, which has probably been the best performing market in recent Australian history. The average landed Sydney residential property cost $23,000 in 1970, and $523,000 in 2006.

That equates to a nominal return of about 9.5% pa.

But you need to consider that inflation averaged 10.4% pa in the 1970s, and 8.1% pa in the 1980s.

Accounting for inflation (which fell to 2.0% pa in the 1990s and 3.5% pa in 2000-2006), you get real capital gains of 2.85% pa, which is only slightly more than real wages growth.

Include rental returns, and it's clear that property has been a respectable earner. But it's not the free lunch that some people have made it out to be. It's underperformed the stock market, and requires a greater investment of time and effort.

you don't include inflation because that is the same across all asset classes,..

Have I ever refered to property as a free lunch,... no all I have done is point out that it is an asset class that is worth having as part of a balanced portfoilio,...

You can't ever say that either the stock market or shares are better than the other,..

each asset class has it's strenghs and weaknesses and when put togther in the right format the strengths in one offsets the weaknesses in the other...

 

[robots]

What are you mumbling about? I just gave it: real returns of 2.85% pa in Sydney since 1970, plus whatever you can rent it for.

hello,

what you lay down?

thankyou

robots

 

[numbercruncher]

Whats this got to do with property being viable as an investment?

It was in response to a side discussion.

Dont believe ive said property isnt a viable investment, depending upon your income and tax level it can be very viable as an investment.

But currently as an owner occupier going forward it isnt a viable investment if prices dont increase by 10pc or more p/a.

 

[tech/a]

But currently as an owner occupier going forward it isnt a viable investment if prices dont increase by 10pc or more p/a.

And in the future when prices stagnate or indeed come off a tad then that would be a more viable investment for an owner occupier?

What your missing is an owner occupier has at least a chance of keeping ahead of Capital gain well beyond bank interest on his savings.
( Your getting capital gain on the money borrowed)
AND
Inflation.

Do nothing and your falling behind further and further.
Just as all those who 2 years ago started this thread have done and will continue to do.

You could stick those Graphs on a 100 ft wide screen and people still wont see it.

"Nah its an illusion a contrived conspiracy--yep always will be."

 

[numbercruncher]

People from Brisbane who listened to this post back in 2004 have turned out to be the fools,....

You could paint anyone with the fool brush that didnt choose a certain asset at a certain time.

Now lets explore the truth.

2004 Brisbane median houseprice 350k.

2007 Brisbane median houseprice 420k.

20pc after 4 years or 5pc p/a , subtract 10k for duty and 10k for realty fee to sell, add in interest and ongoing holding costs, it looks crap to me.

Surely the offical definition of stagnation for this period ?



http://www.myrp.com.au/brisbane_house_prices.do

 

[numbercruncher]

Realestate permabulls are going to be calling for the sacking of the Vic Premier ? Seems hes turned property bear

MELBOURNE'S house price boom is unsustainable, Premier John Brumby warned yesterday, as he counselled buyers against borrowing too much and counting on ever-rising prices.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/brumby-warns-on-mortgages/2008/01/25/1201157673211.html

 

[IFocus]

The trend has been much less than 10% pa. Residential property price growth has historically been coupled to wage growth. Which makes sense, because wage earners (rather than professional speculators) have historically been the primary consumers of this good.

After accounting for rental returns, real estate has historically performed worse than the stock market, and marginally better than fixed interest (at the cost of greater volatility).

Before this current boom / bubble I carried out research on suburbs around around Perth to see what the average growth rates were over the previous 30 years and how much they varied. No big deal as the data is easily available.

It became very clear where to invest and where not to based on that information alone. There were many areas that averaged 10% PA and greater over that 30 year period In WA that is quite a few boom and bust periods, over here we know how to cause banks to default.

There was plenty of other data available to see the trends that had been, were existing and relativity easy to project out for at 2 to 3 years or more.

I also came across plenty of long term investors that had made fortunes out of investing in property over 30 years or more. When I say plenty I am talking 100 or more people. When trying to find traders of the same magnitude I found 3 or 4.

I don't know of any other asset class where is is so much data and history available as real estate.

Will house prices to stagnate for years?

There will be areas that will certainly stagnate look at the historical data there always has been always will be except in booms which for some illogical reason some believe thats normal.

Like wise there will always be areas both locality and types that will continue to rise.

Extraordinarily it requires some mentoring, miles of research, and plenty of time and effort to find and exploit.

My advice to any would be investor is forget the stock market, solely concentrate on property based on probability your chance of success are far greater IMHO.

I invested in property 5 to 6 years ago and made a basic mistake of continuing to invest enormous amounts of time on trading markets instead of solely focusing on property. Although I make an income from trading my property investments is where my real wealth is made.

Focus