House prices to stagnate for 'years'

[Tysonboss1]

in Australia, price growth has outstripped wages growth for such a period now that the % of disposable income required to fund rent/mortgages has reached new highs.

.

which says to me that around the capital cities we have to increase the density we expect to live in,....

obviously as the population grows not every one can live in houses,... and if we try,.. then the price will just increase.

there is absoulutly no reason why houses around sydney can't grow in value to the point where the average person can't afford to buy them,... as I said earlier there is no way I could afford to by a house and pay it off myself in the suburb I live,... you need a $400,000 deposit just to get one that is not even water proof.

 

[Tysonboss1]

See 1989-1999 Brisbane for an example.

I think you will find that since 1989 brisbane has has had a return of greater than 10%.

 

[numbercruncher]

which says to me that around the capital cities we have to increase the density we expect to live in,.....

And that is going to happen and in many cases already is, Urban consolidation is a given !

obviously as the population grows not every one can live in houses,... and if we try,.. then the price will just increase..

Obviously not, and with a rapidly aging population and with many people choosing unit living for many ranging factors as demonstrated in the figures for unit construction I dont see this being a huge problem in the future, Id certainly prefer a unit as a 70 year old than a 1/4 acre time/money sink.

there is absoulutly no reason why houses around sydney can't grow in value to the point where the average person can't afford to buy them,... as I said earlier there is no way I could afford to by a house and pay it off myself in the suburb I live,... you need a $400,000 deposit just to get one that is not even water proof.

With all due respect, thats obvious because its already true by a massive margin. Its probably true for every major city in the country . By "around" Im assuming you mean like 10ks or so ?

 

[Tysonboss1]

With all due respect, thats obvious because its already true by a massive margin. Its probably true for every major city in the country . By "around" Im assuming you mean like 10ks or so ?

yep 10K's, probally 20Ks in sydney... pushing out to around 30k's or 35k's over the next 20 years.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Obviously not, and with a rapidly aging population and with many people choosing unit living for many ranging factors as demonstrated in the figures for unit construction I dont see this being a huge problem in the future, Id certainly prefer a unit as a 70 year old than a 1/4 acre time/money sink.



?

many aging people continue to live in their houses,.... infact most of the house's that I said were worth over $2m are owned by people over 70,..

What I can see happening in my area is that as these homes slowly come on the market as the person dies or moves to a nursing home the house's are knocked down and 3 story apartment building built back,.... or on some nicer streets the homes are restored into luxury homes or knocked down and luxury homes built back.

If you look at a city like sydney there is simply no land left, so sydney will just continue to get denser and denser and putting presure on the price of land.

 

[numbercruncher]

yep 10K's,... pushing out to around 30k's over the next 20 years.

Itll be true as it is now for House prices, will never be for unit prices.

And your prediction simply isnt supported by population growth figures to push this out to 30k;s - Unless there is a massive population explosion - Baby boomers are retireing now in massive numbers and statistically those retiring now will be dead in 20 years. (remember Peter Costello kept talking about "the demographic time bomb that's going to hit us within 20 years")

I mean what evidence do you have that supports that an average house will be unaffordable to average people in 20 years time within 30klms of any major Australian city ?

I suggest you read this 2005 article to get the gist of our Demographic situation.

The population of working age - those aged 15 to 64 - grew by 1.4 per cent. But get this: within that, the population of pre-retirement age - 55 to 64 - grew by 4.6 per cent to 2.1 million.

Costello's own budget this year contained two clear indications that the first noticeable effects of ageing are almost upon us. The first was a prediction that the rate of participation in the labour force - the proportion of people of working age who either have a job or are looking for one - will reach its zenith next financial year, 2006-07.

The second was the decision to cut the nation's projected potential rate of economic growth from 3.5 per cent a year to 3.25 per cent from 2008-09 onwards, which is just three years away.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/ross-gittins/australias-demographic-time-bomb/2005/09/20/1126982063986.html

 

[wayneL]

WayneL, is .85 really too small for a horse farm? The missus says yes.

Hmm, that's a tougher question than it sounds. It all depends on the number, how you intend to manage the horses and how much hacking (places to ride out) is available nearby.... and of course the $$$$$$ available.

I've personally owned horse properties ranging from 1.8 ha right up to 95ha.

Had 18 hayburners on the 1.8 block and it was HEAPS of space for how we were managing it.

But a few other examples;

Most of the horse properties around Whooree in Geraldton are only 1 ha... and thats on crap soil and very low rainfall.

Here in England, many horse properties would only be that big, but with plenty of nearby hacking.

A place in Switzerland where missus did a lot of training was less than 1 ha, had 21 horses, house, indoor arena and outdoor arena plus a bit of green pick. Heaps of space for how it was run.

The place in Wimbledon (you know the one) is only about 500m2 and has 25 horses on it, but 3,700 acres just up the road.

But if you want to be able to turf your nags out in the paddock and nick off for a few days, that's a different matter. A couple of hectares would be better.

As a general observation, missus always wants more, while hubby always wants less.

 

[robots]

The majority of pensioners I know are only too aware of the reduction in spending power of the dollar. In fact, most people I know understand that matching inflation (with no tax burden) is really a 0% return.

Nothing personal, however it is scary to know that an "agent" who has such a lack of financial understanding will be "assisting" clients to make some of the largest financial transactions in their life

hello,

and pensioners arent rubbing their hands together when their creaming it with the old bhp or cba they have had for many many years,

i wonder if you could post the "requirements" to be able to receive the pension mofra,

or sitting on a nice workers cottage in Port Melbourne now valued at well over a mil

you are right it is a zero game, irrelevant,

do you think along the way the pensioner in his port melbourne workers cottage would give two hoots about inflation,

thankyou

robots

 

[YChromozome]

The Sydney Morning Herald today has an article on "Struggle Street", or Seymour Way in Kellyville North-West of Sydney where 4 houses in a row of 6 have been repossessed within 10 months of each other :


No., Purchased:, Sold:, Seller:, Loss:
No. 48, 950,000 Aug-05, 490,000 Jan-08, First Mortgage Company, 48%
No. 42, 950,000 Sep-05, 490,000 Mar-07, First Mortgage Company, 48%
No. 44, 780,000 Sep-03, 502,500 Apr-07, Perpetual Limited, 36%
No. 52, 780,000 Sep-03, 532,000 Oct-07, Rocks Building Society, 32%

And many happened last year, prior to the latest rate rises.

 

[xoa]

Auckland house prices plummeted 7.5% last month. The party has well and truly ended in NZ. Australia will be the next domino to fall.



http://www.tv3.co.nz/News/Story/tabid/209/articleID/45615/cat/41/Default.aspx

 

[Tysonboss1]

Itll be true as it is now for House prices, will never be for unit prices.




[]

Unit prices are also subject to increased prices as an area increases in density,... this will happen more and more in the future.

a low level ( 3 story )walk up apartment buliding, that has been rezoned to allow a 20 story development to go ahead, will increase in value much the same as a house and land will,

remember land increases in value, but so does air space.

I wouldn't buy a unit in a 40 story apartment building, But i would buy an apartment in a 2 or 3 level apartment building.

my rule of thumb is to not buy a unit that needs a lift,....

 

[Tysonboss1]

Auckland house prices plummeted 7.5% last month. The party has well and truly ended in NZ. Australia will be the next domino to fall.



http://www.tv3.co.nz/News/Story/tabid/209/articleID/45615/cat/41/Default.aspx

If you have a few consective years of growth inexcess of 20% offcoarse you can expect to have a slight down turn ever few years,... nothing to worry about,... really you are just losing a bit of froth of the top.

as with most investments you can expect to have 1 or 2 negative years in 7.

 

[xoa]

If you have a few consective years of growth inexcess of 20% offcoarse you can expect to have a slight down turn ever few years,... nothing to worry about,... really you are just losing a bit of froth of the top.

as with most investments you can expect to have 1 or 2 negative years in 7.

Or it could turn out like 1987; a drop followed by a decade of stagnation which returns prices to realistic levels.

When the average house loses $45,000 worth of equity in a month, it devastates the confidence of speculators. Speculators have been the backbone of the market in recent years.

 

[Tysonboss1]

I mean what evidence do you have that supports that an average house will be unaffordable to average people in 20 years time within 30klms of any major Australian city ?

I]

Common sense,... you yourself keeps pointing it out to me,... in 20years there will be less houses in sydney than there are today,... but there will still be demand from high income earners for the remaining homes,...

I can see it happing in my area already, the only houses that are surviving are the ones in the richer streets, where the houses are either being restored, or new luxuary homes being built back.

the houses in the cheaper streets are beening bulldozed and low level unit blocks built back.

the inner suburbs of sydney will be much diiferent in 20years,... it's happening already,

as far out as campbelltown about 40K's from the cbd,... they are building 6 and 7 story apartment buildings,.... liverpool , parramatta, hornsby, crunulla are all a long way from the cbd but the same thing is happening in the last 7 years these suburbs have changed massivly,...

20 years ago even a low income earner could by a house around these suburbs,.... not any more, over the next 20years it is going to be even worse.

I am not saying the average person won't beable to buy a home,... I am just saying that it won't be a traditional house and land.

 

[Tysonboss1]

Or it could turn out like 1987; a drop followed by a decade of stagnation which returns prices to realistic levels.

When the average house loses $45,000 worth of equity in a month, it devastates the confidence of speculators. Speculators have been the backbone of the market in recent years.

After years of stagnation comes a property boom returning the average property growth to above 10% as it has maintained over the last 100years through multiple booms, crashes, wars, recessions and interest rate spikes,

 

[Tysonboss1]

Watch this link,... It shows what I was explaining how areas go through density transition.

http://www.propertyinvesting.com/go/228

I posted this link a while back but if you haven't watched it, it is really good.

It points out exactly what I am seeing happening in my area.

 

[tech/a]

This debate can be put to bed with current statistics.

Its JUST NOT HAPPENING it
Its JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

There is massive demand and no satisfaction of that demand here in Australia in sight.

There is severe rental shortage and no decrease of demand in sight.

Rent rates are increasing and there is no abatement in these increases in sight.

Property leads/has lead and will continue to lead investment return for many many years to come.

These are FACTS not theory.

Every state is on the move again.
The dip or correction those here were looking for has been and now gone.
Those who still wait will be left once more waiting for something that WONT eventuate in THIS country.

Full and comprehensive details here.
http://www.anz.com/documents/economics/Property Outlook January 2008.pdf

 

[wayneL]

This debate can be put to bed with current statistics.

Its JUST NOT HAPPENING it
Its JUST NOT GOING TO HAPPEN.

There is massive demand and no satisfaction of that demand here in Australia in sight.

There is severe rental shortage and no decrease of demand in sight.

Rent rates are increasing and there is no abatement in these increases in sight.

Property leads/has lead and will continue to lead investment return for many many years to come.

These are FACTS not theory.

Every state is on the move again.
The dip or correction those here were looking for has been and now gone.
Those who still wait will be left once more waiting for something that WONT eventuate in THIS country.

Full and comprehensive details here.
http://www.anz.com/documents/economics/Property Outlook January 2008.pdf

I was putting together a prospectus in about 1991 using the exact same arguments.

 

[xoa]

After years of stagnation comes a property boom returning the average property growth to above 10% as it has maintained over the last 100years through multiple booms, crashes, wars, recessions and interest rate spikes,

The trend has been much less than 10% pa. Residential property price growth has historically been coupled to wage growth. Which makes sense, because wage earners (rather than professional speculators) have historically been the primary consumers of this good.

After accounting for rental returns, real estate has historically performed worse than the stock market, and marginally better than fixed interest (at the cost of greater volatility).

 

[xoa]

Those who still wait will be left once more waiting for something that WONT eventuate in THIS country.

Full and comprehensive details here.
http://www.anz.com/documents/economics/Property Outlook January 2008.pdf

Money lenders used much the same selective statistics in the United States in 2005. And the UK in 2007. And NZ as recently as December last year. You know why? Because they have a vested interest in lending money, and they'll be upbeat as long as they can. When the crash comes, they'll be happy to foreclose on the people they mislead.