House prices to keep falling for years

[MrBurns]

Compared to what?
The fall of the Roman Empire?
The Great Depression which will be renamed "The not so Great Depression?"

Do you EVER get out of your Comfort zone?
As you perceive it of course.

What is that supposed to mean ?

Well compared to anything that's gone before, there hasn't been a property bubble (residential) like this before.

I guess I keep assuming people can fill in the gaps but perhaps I need to spell eveyrhing out in capitals.

 

[cuttlefish]

And no matter how highly paid you are, or how educated, it is going to bite a lot of people on the **** who would never have thought it possible at one stage.

I agree its no time for complacency and the ideal is no gearing or minimal gearing.

 

[MrBurns]

I agree its no time for complacency and the ideal is no gearing or minimal gearing.

The signs couldn't be clearer.

 

[chops_a_must]

I agree its no time for complacency and the ideal is no gearing or minimal gearing.

Beats me that at a time any company with any debt at all, and especially leverage against property, is being absolutely walloped globally, that people with significant borrowings against property are not worried and are actually advocating that as a good thing that others should look at.

Surely that should be a warning?

 

[cuttlefish]

Beats me that at a time any company with any debt at all, and especially leverage against property, is being absolutely walloped globally, that people with significant borrowings against property are not worried and are actually advocating that as a good thing that others should look at.

Surely that should be a warning?

I agree and I hope I'm not being construed as someone that is advocating buying property right now because I'm not. I'm not intending to offer an opinion one way or another - just trying to provide some balanced viewpoints.

Property is suprisingly resilient over the medium to long term from my own personal experience. It certainly has its slumps though and it looks like one is coming right now based on the overseas experience and the local economic outlook, combined with the recent runup driving yields down to quite low levels in most areas.

But its a complex topic with a lot of variables and different locations need to be considered on their individual circumstances/parameters.

 

[MR.]

I agree and I hope I'm not being construed as someone that is advocating buying property right now because I'm not.

Not I either and many more. So who is buying / going to buy the properties on the market now?

Does the seller hold tight for the buyers return? Or should the seller keep on lowering until a deal is met. Providing the bank agrees with the loan. But in many cases now they are not loaning the money unless their risk is well covered. So when a figure is accepted by seller and buyer the bank says no and so start over again.

 

[robots]

The other interesting part of this is that the compound growth line in real terms since 1926 is only 3%.

I would like a better return for my long term life savings.

hello,

this is the real interesting one,

all the guns here reckon 3% return (it only ever tracks inflation?) is so poor yet they spend so much time discussing a very ordinary asset class by their standards,

why is that?

have a great day, australia is still pumping along well brothers, spend up big and do the right thing by your fellow man

thankyou
robots

 

[tech/a]

The signs couldn't be clearer.

Sorry dont agree with you.

This isnt the US.

We dont have a massive surplus in property inventory.
We dont have an over supply of rentals.

I havent the time to answer this fully now,but will sometime today.
Go buy the latest Property Investor mag.
Go to the back and have a GOOD look at the actual statistics for AUST.

 

[CamKawa]

I hope shows like ACA don't start carpet bombing us with specuvestor sob stories. Like what were these people thinking? All they had to do to get rich was buy a house? LOL It wasn't my greed the banks made me do it... LOL

Homes seizures rocket

 

[MrBurns]

Sorry dont agree with you.

This isnt the US.

We dont have a massive surplus in property inventory.
We dont have an over supply of rentals.

I havent the time to answer this fully now,but will sometime today.
Go buy the latest Property Investor mag.
Go to the back and have a GOOD look at the actual statistics for AUST.

I never said this was anything like the US, those in the property industry would call this a no brainer, it's coming down how far time will tell.

So I dont agree with you lets just let the market speak or itself over the next 12 months.

 

[Temjin]

I never said this was anything like the US, those in the property industry would call this a no brainer, it's coming down how far time will tell.

So I dont agree with you lets just let the market speak or itself over the next 12 months.

Yep, what needs to be covered has already been done here at least a hundred times. Let's the market speak for itself and see what happens.

However, as much as I do not want to see a massive property slump because it will affect almost EVERYONE OF US, no one can deny this is an impossibility. Remember Nassim with his probability thinking? Anything is possible.

Why would anyone want to get into huge debt when there is an increasing risk of massive unemployment?

 

[Mofra]

Mofra seemed to waste no time denegrating one of my posts so I assume the cat is a bull, anyway I'm not interrsted in arguing with anyone the facts will speak for themselves.

Actually, all I did was point out the following was not analysis:

Yep 23% plus the down dip thats overdue say another 15% let's round it off at say 40% probably a lot more.

Given you still haven't provided a single piece of evidence or reason for your opinions (perhaps there was a link to article somewhere which was a typical mainstream media piece in any case), then I can't possibly agree with what you post.

 

[MrBurns]

Actually, all I did was point out the following was not analysis:

Given you still haven't provided a single piece of evidence or reason for your opinions (perhaps there was a link to article somewhere which was a typical mainstream media piece in any case), then I can't possibly agree with what you post.

For goodness sake this is a forum not a Senate enquiry.

I have given reasons for my opinions but if you're looking for cold hard eveidence there will be plenty when this unfolds further as there is no precedent for this we are all guessing including world leaders.

Some guess from experience, others who have non guess anyway but some dont listen.

I was heartened to see vision of our leader waving from the top of an aircraft entry platform as he jets off for another talkfest, too bad he has to return.

 

[cuttlefish]

Not I either and many more. So who is buying / going to buy the properties on the market now?

People looking to buy a home in tightly held areas that have been waiting for a while for an opportunity. They'll be more selective but there will be buyers. People can't put their lives on hold forever waiting for the perfectly timed entry.

 

[CamKawa]

For goodness sake this is a forum not a Senate enquiry.

I known, the permabulls are hocked to their eyeballs in debt and are looking for anything to support their view no matter how strong evidence is to the contrary. They are completely deluded IMHO, just let them fall into negative equity and relax.

 

[lioness]

Mr Burns,

I must say I know many Mr Burns as friends. These types of people have been telling me for >10 years property will crash and it has gone up 800% where they wanted to buy.

So yes a 20% fall is possible but they still can never make up the 780% lost.

 

[CamKawa]

People can't put their lives on hold forever waiting for the perfectly timed entry.

My fear is the perfectly timed entry maybe 15 years away.

 

[gfresh]

I hope the ANZ has put aside loan provisions for the 3000 employees they are about to show the door: http://www.theage.com.au/national/anz-tipped-to-make-heavy-job-cuts-20081113-66a2.html

After the Christmas sales, the retail layoffs will then start in force... Late Jan..

Property has boom and slow periods, but recessions don't happen that often and do hurt the property market. Odds are still 70% for a recession if you ask me, but I am sure the optimists will disagree. Sometimes it is wise to be cautious, which is what most are right now.

 

[CamKawa]

I hope the ANZ has put aside loan provisions for the 3000 employees they are about to show the door:

I'm surprised to see ANZ do that. Like when you have a look at their house price prediction chart I would have thought they would be hiring an extra 3000 staff to handle the massive influx of home loan applications. How does that work?

 

[MrBurns]

Mr Burns,

I must say I know many Mr Burns as friends. These types of people have been telling me for >10 years property will crash and it has gone up 800% where they wanted to buy.

So yes a 20% fall is possible but they still can never make up the 780% lost.

These types of people ??? You mean rational thinking people who have some experience in a market where things go elsewhere but UP ?

800% ??? geee that must have been the guy that found his boundary re aligned to take up the 3 houses adjoining.

Property will recover and go up again but it hasn't even gone down/crashed yet so don't rush in just yet.

I might as well talk to the cat.