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House prices to keep falling for years

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Some more interesting reading.

Pros and cons Written by Travis Morien


Advantages of property:
  • A good asset to hold in inflationary times, capital growth and rent increases tend to be linked with inflation and hence property is a true inflation hedge (over the longer term).
  • Banks are more comfortable with property, and will lend more money at lower rates than they do with share investors. No margin calls, good interest rates, high loan to value ratios make this a good asset to gear into.
  • Reasonable long term returns.
  • The sector is more tax efficient than bonds and cash, though less so than shares.
  • There is enormous profit potential in fixing up slightly run-down old properties in desirable locations, though development is not the same as passive investment.
  • Property trusts that invest in commercial property eliminate most of the disadvantages mentioned below, and often give better returns, while having most of the advantages mentioned above!!
  • As long as you have tenants you'll never be bored or lonely!
Disadvantages of property:

  • Gearing is a double edged sword, and the ease of credit only encourages people to take unacceptable risks.
  • (Direct) property is an extremely expensive and high maintenance investment. At least when you own shares the company won't suddenly force you to fork out more money all the time. Don't underestimate the risk of costs blowing out, it happens very often in this investment.
  • Tenants are an expensive pain. Just talk to a plumber and ask if he would be happy to invest in a rental property. He's used to having tenants call and casually rattle off a list of expensive jobs they want done, with the understanding that they will pass the bill on to the landlord as a fait accompli when the job is finished. Most plumbers I have met have sworn solemnly never to invest in a rental property!
  • The supposed low risk of property is an artifact of infrequent quotes. Prices are set in a somewhat inefficient market and are driven by the same sorts of market forces that make the stock market so volatile. Don't believe this stuff about residential real estate always going up, that is a lie.
  • It is hard to get good data to do research. Often it doesn't exist at all, often when data does exist you can't get it or must pay a lot of money for it. At the same time measures of performance like median house price indexes are seriously flawed and do not give a true picture of returns.
  • It is hard to get good advice, ASIC does not regulate the real estate industry and so it is full of dodgy Arthur Daley types that fled the financial planning and insurance industry when that started becoming regulated in the 90s. Most books and almost all seminars on the subject are worthless.
  • Never confuse "I've lived in buildings all my life and therefore understand the general concept of a rental property, at the seminar they told me houses go up a lot and that you can save tax!" with "I understand the business purchasing and managing a real estate property and tenants, am familiar with my rights an obligations as a landlord, can understand the market forces that drive prices, know a thing or two about mortgage finance, I know how the tax system works, I understand the strengths of weaknesses of property compared to alternative assets and am prepared for the constant paper work and occasional hard labour involved in property management."
 
Yeah, same fella who has slammed the author of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" as the fraud he actually is.

As for the book, read the first half and then just throw it away. Better to borrow it from the library than pay for the garbage it espouses. Much like robots' advice/theory/pontifications/rubbish I suppose.
 
Yeah, same fella who has slammed the author of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" as the fraud he actually is.

As for the book, read the first half and then just throw it away. Better to borrow it from the library than pay for the garbage it espouses. Much like robots' advice/theory/pontifications/rubbish I suppose.

Don't be irritated by the these people :D, it best sum up with Plato

"Wise men talk because they have something to say; fools talk because they have to say something." -- Plato
 
hello,

i dont mind taking the heat fellow ASF members, just make sure you can cop it sweet on the other foot fellow ASF members,

its all a laugh and I hope life is swell for everybody,

thankyou
robots
 
Had a very illuminating and extensive browse through the state rural real estate listings today.

Pretty much EVERYTHING under $80k that is not falling apart is under offer.

Only one or two good ones left about (I assume to be gone soon) and the rest were either falling apart or in dead towns.
 
With rates about to drop again. Some of myclients are telling me they are at the crossroads to buy. One mortgagee administrator has released to a client 3 new 3 bedroom units with lockup garages in redfern NSW that have been on the market for $550k. KPMG have now decided to let them go at $400k today!

Last week in palm Beach 15 new listings hit the streets. Record since 1981 in that area. And Mosman has 300 homes for sale, another record.

I can see evidence for both sides of the fence, Bargin! hunters are now crawling out,,,,, However the Bears are still way ahead in the Property Market.

It has alotof us scatching our heads out here!
 
I did see a house sell at auction with agent valuation of 3.3m, quoting mid $3m to buyers, sell for 2.5m in the last week or so. Im sure its just a little hiccup though. Should see lots of incredible prices and clearance rates over the next few weeks with rates falling and economies recovering.
 
I use to think safe as houses meant you could not go wrong under any circumstance.
Now I find out it means using your house as a safe to hide your money and other assets while you wait for the prices to go up....if you live long enough.
 
hello,

thanks great news

any chance you can give the viewer's here the previous last recorded sale price of that place you have so closely followed?

thankyou
robots
 
There is a consensus amongst property bulls and bears alike that house sale volumes have been falling.

Low volumes = exacerbated price falls


http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7698393.stm


Low sales drive house prices down


_45069679_salesigns2_226_bbc.jpg There has been no let-up in house price falls


UK house prices continued falling in October and are now nearly 15% lower than a year ago, says the Nationwide.
The building society's latest survey says property prices fell by 1.4% this past month, pushing the annual rate of fall up from 12.4% to 14.6%. This means the price of an average house was £158,872 - nearly £30,000 less than a year ago. The Nationwide said the price falls were being driven by the fall in sales, now at their lowest for 34 years.
 

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hello,

thanks great news

any chance you can give the viewer's here the previous last recorded sale price of that place you have so closely followed?

thankyou
robots


Was a brand new 4 bed house with pool approx 1.2m construction cost. 50 year old house next door sold for 1.68m 24 months ago. Tonight that same 50 yr old house went up for auction and failed to get a bid with interest topping out at 1.5m. Market suddenly strange this month. Next month should be better.
 
... Should see lots of incredible prices and clearance rates over the next few weeks with rates falling and economies recovering.

Care to enlighten us on exactly which economies will be recovering and how this could possibly have a positive impact on local clearance rates?

... Market suddenly strange this month...

Yup - that's the reality of a global recession starting to sinking in.... and we're not immune, not by a long shot :(
 
Well it seems that at least one RBA board member thinks the views expressed here about prolonged house price falls in oz of up to 40% are extremely unlikely:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/house-prices-stable/2008/10/30/1224956238429.html

He makes many of the same points made by myself and many others, many times, on this and the other thread. Some good quotes from the article:

HOUSE prices in Australia are not set for precipitous falls, as in the US, nor are household balance sheets suffering too badly, says the Reserve Bank deputy governor, Ric Battellino

Amid predictions that house prices would fall by 40 per cent as households crumbled under the weight of mortgage debt, Mr Battellino told a bankruptcy conference in Sydney that prices would hold up much better than in the US, where they have fallen about 16 per cent in the past year.

Unlike the US, Australia's housing bubble had already burst, about three years ago, Mr Battellino said. "The Australian housing boom ended because prices rose to levels that severely strained the financial capacity of buyers to pay higher prices, not because too many houses were built, as in the US.

The overhang of unsold houses in the US has created downward pressure on house prices as builders and developers have been forced to sell." This had not happened in Australia, he said. "Rather, the shortage of housing here means that there are buyers waiting for better circumstances - for example, lower interest rates or rising incomes - to facilitate their entry to the market." This latent demand would support the market.

Moreover, housing debt in Australia was largely in the hands of middle-aged borrowers who could afford it, rather than more marginal borrowers, as in the US, meaning forced sales were less likely.

PS: I'm still seeing plenty of action out there and many places I am looking at selling for good prices still.

Cheers,

Beej
 
Depends where you are looking I guess. Some areas (mainly 10km+ from Brisbane CBD) I have been watching have been putting up 5 new properties a week, and old stock is still sitting there.

With 50-80 properties listed in individual suburbs, and stock being added a week why would you pay full price?

Is becoming better and better time to be buying.. I still want to see some further stagnation, will have even more sellers caving in for a low-ball offer.

Next year should be brilliant :)
 
Was a brand new 4 bed house with pool approx 1.2m construction cost. 50 year old house next door sold for 1.68m 24 months ago. Tonight that same 50 yr old house went up for auction and failed to get a bid with interest topping out at 1.5m. Market suddenly strange this month. Next month should be better.

hello,

yeah right, got the link for both

thankyou
robots
 
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