House prices to keep falling for years

[Mofra]

If you own your house sure , but if you have a typical mortgage youre paying out 3x a typical rental, how can this possibly be " easier " ?

As a guess, perhaps holding investment property of similar value x 3, pays no maintenance on the older house he rents, buys newer investment properties with lower maintenance bills, gummint subsidises the interest payments and any maintenance bills are tax deductable.

Of course, the reality is many renters don't put their savings (cheaper to rent than rent money) to use anyway.

 

[grace]

Did anyone watch the 7.30 Report tonight? Alan Kohler was interviewed and suggested that the top end of the property market would see a 50% correction.

 

[So_Cynical]

What are peoples views specifically on Sydney house prices, particularly in the eastern and northern suburbs and the inner city?

do people still think we're in for big price falls in Sydney?

Did anyone watch the 7.30 Report tonight? Alan Kohler was interviewed and suggested that the top end of the property market would see a 50% correction.

The good half of Sydney (east of concord) and Perth (north of the river) would be considered the top end of the market....so 25 > 50% would seem possible.:dunno:

 

[singlefished]

Did anyone watch the 7.30 Report tonight? Alan Kohler was interviewed and suggested that the top end of the property market would see a 50% correction.

I missed it earlier but ABC are quite prompt with uploading content to their site so have just caught it...

What's the definition for "top end of the market" then??? >$10M+++ or are we talking the sort of properties where you'd need a security and credit check before showing up at OFI's???

 

[chops_a_must]

The good half of Sydney (east of concord) and Perth (north of the river) would be considered the top end of the market....so 25 > 50% would seem possible.:dunno:

Right... so Applecross, Ardross, East Fremantle, Mt. Pleasant, Freo et al. and coastal land down to Rockingham isn't top of the market?

Personally, despite being bearish property, I found his argument to be crap about the high end.

In Perth, you can buy equivalent property in Cot, Freo, Shelley, North Perth etc. for about 1/3rd of the price of Melbourne and Sydney equivalent property. And I'm sure it's the same in Adelaide and Brisbane. So can't see those markets falling.

It's the subdivisions out in whoop whoop with no nearby jobs or transport that will continue to cop it badly. Especially if new development creates more supply with the FHOG.

 

[So_Cynical]

Right... so Applecross, Ardross, East Fremantle, Mt. Pleasant, Freo et al. and coastal land down to Rockingham isn't top of the market?

Personally, despite being bearish property, I found his argument to be crap about the high end.

In Perth, you can buy equivalent property in Cot, Freo, Shelley, North Perth etc. for about 1/3rd of the price of Melbourne and Sydney equivalent property. And I'm sure it's the same in Adelaide and Brisbane. So can't see those markets falling.

I used to live in east Freo...its nice but it aint Claremont, is it chops. anyway how about
everything north of Canning Hwy then.

 

[chops_a_must]

I used to live in east Freo...its nice but it aint Claremont, is it chops. anyway how about
everything north of Canning Hwy then.

Depends if you are down on the river, or are near to. Same with Bicton.

And no... that cuts out most of Freo and some of the river suburbs.

And nah... better to be in the south. Lower rates of cancer and other nasties, from those particulates from the prevailing winds blowing crap all over the northern suburbs.

 

[Mofra]

It's the subdivisions out in whoop whoop with no nearby jobs or transport that will continue to cop it badly. Especially if new development creates more supply with the FHOG.

Yup totally, even without a recession these properties struggle, simply because the rule of thumb of 80% of the value in a new development being in the dwelling (which depreciates), and 20% of the value being in the land (in a less-desireable area) doesn't make for a happy union.

Most Australian cities simply lack the population density. It makes cheap, reliable public transport (especially at the fringes of suburbia) an extremely costly exercise for local governments, hence the billions of land "banked" by development companies awaiting either approval or better market conditions.

 

[Glen48]

Some time soon the Council's will have to rewrite the building application rules and allow Trailer park's to be built just kike USA has.
OHAS will have to be put on hold to speed things up and cheap housing will spring up like Mushrooms.
House prices are still going down in USA and setting mew records from when all this started in 2006, houses are being demolished to stop squatters, one lady had all her copper plumbing ripped out when she was asleep amd I suppose making her house worthless over night.
There has been more growth in the last 7 yrs than the last 39 which has to be adjusted.
I saw on CH 7 last night were the rich are flogging of their Merc's etc to get money.

 

[Go Nuke]

hello,

and i wouldnt be posting in this one either if the "original" big banger was still open "house prices to stagnate for years", just gone past its 3yr anniversary

i have a shrine setup in my place for that one, the colonel of them all which was closed unfortunately,

prices are still going strong though brother, records still around the place

the REIW have indicated the "median" is being heavily impacted by selling at the lower end, not lower prices

still unaffordable for a lot though I guess thats the main problem, they just cant afford it,

thankyou
robots

So good points posted lately.

Firstly I totally agree with you on this Robots....sadly alot of us just can't afford a house yet.
As ive said I KNOW that to service say a $350,000 loan (which isn't excessive by any means) it takes roughly about what...$700-$750 a week to repay?
Thats a big chunk of most peoples combined income imo.

If house prices fell, we would be looking at a mini USA property crisis. Except for the supply issue of course.

I personaly agree that if unemployment continued up and up then it is real that either rents would have to come down or we would have alot worse traffic congestion as the roads become clogged with people who can no longer afford to live close to the city or where they work...if they still have a job at all!

And dont even suggest publc transport!
Brisbanes in MAJORLY overcrowed as is, and is not widespread enough to get people to their destinations.

Well at least the govenment might do one thing right soon....slash the immigration intake to keep Australians employed! Seen as unemployment is on the way up

 

[CamKawa]

I reckon this sums it up.

 

[gfresh]

Problem is at 6.5% property is probably affordable, at 9% they weren't.. So down we go to make them all "affordable" again. According to the trusty mortgage calculator.

$350k = $544/wk @ 6.5%
$350k = $677/wk @ 9%

24% more expensive!

So here we go again back down to 6.5% to make sure everybody runs and jumps into property, and starts pushing the price up again so they can be unaffordable at 9% once again to anybody who missed out at 6.5%.

The whole system is so utterly ridiculous... the only way to beat the madness is to play along unfortunately.

 

[robots]

Problem is at 6.5% property is probably affordable, at 9% they weren't.. So down we go to make them all "affordable" again. According to the trusty mortgage calculator.

$350k = $544/wk @ 6.5%
$350k = $677/wk @ 9%

24% more expensive!

So here we go again back down to 6.5% to make sure everybody runs and jumps into property, and starts pushing the price up again so they can be unaffordable at 9% once again to anybody who missed out at 6.5%.

The whole system is so utterly ridiculous... the only way to beat the madness is to play along unfortunately.

hello,

as long you "saving" "investing" the difference in the scenario of renting vs buying you are doing well and should be proud of yourself,

either way you on the home run for pure bliss,

landlords need tenants and places are still around, some suburbs have 50% rental properties for eg. south yarra here in Melbourne

20-30% gross income is great start

thankyou
robots

 

[ROE]

Here is for some who doesn't understand what compound and exponential means in their calculation

Let history speak itself about a value of an asset

http://bubblepedia.net.au/tiki-index.php?page=House Prices Double Every X Years

 

[robots]

hello,

can you also put up that graph which shows prices for places have gone nowhere over the last 100years,

thankyou
robots

 

[wallyt99]

"Popular among laymen but not fully confirmed by empirical research,[5][6] greater fool theory portrays bubbles as driven by the behavior of a perennially optimistic market participants (the fools) who buy overvalued assets in anticipation of selling it to other rapacious speculators (the greater fools) at a much higher price. According to this unsupported explanation, the bubbles continue as long as the fools can find greater fools to pay up for the overvalued asset. The bubbles will end only when the greater fool becomes the greatest fool who pays the top price for the overvalued asset and can no longer find another buyer to pay for it at a higher price."

 

[Glen48]

Spoke to my landlord he purchased my house and I pay less a week than he does, he told me he sold nothing last month and is running out of time to sell some thing this month other wise things are ok.
The First home owners will have to change their name to maybe maybe not Home owners as the 21K is not working.

 

[Glen48]

Wonder how all those books are selling?
How to own 10 houses in 10 yrs.
How to buy a house with no money down,
How to retire at 15 and own 20 houses
Real Estate made easy
Real Estate for dummies ( should be called how not to get sucked in)
The was a RE 20 yr RE agent on the Sunshine Coast who opened her own office and was making a fortune a few yrs ago.

 

[Aussiejeff]

....
The was a RE 20 yr RE agent on the Sunshine Coast who opened her own office and was making a fortune a few yrs ago.

hello,

awesome rumour have it that she move in with someone called robots at balmoral slopes


thankyou
aussiebots

 

[CamKawa]

Found an interesting site. Thought I'd share.

John T. Reed’s Real Estate B.S. Artist Detection Checklist

Some of the points he makes are fairly obvious, some others aren't.