House prices to keep falling for years

[Gone Fishin]

What a stupid definition. I have over 50% of my household income going into a mortgage but I also have more than the average Australian wage left over for beer money.

Am I supposed to feel stressed?

No just sounds like you have a drinking problem.

 

[So_Cynical]

What a stupid definition. I have over 50% of my household income going into a mortgage but I also have more than the average Australian wage left over for beer money.

Am I supposed to feel stressed?

More than the average wage left over?...clearly puts u in the above average bracket...please continue to spend with abandon. :

 

[Lancelot]

More than the average wage left over?...clearly puts u in the above average bracket...please continue to spend with abandon. :

How do you figure that?
The post said household income , so 2 average wages makes $120k.
A median $460k house with 10% deposit equals a loan of $414,000 at 8% p&i is $38k/year.

Simple maths shows an average wage plus some left over.

 

[CamKawa]

Some interesting viewing. Check out his first question to Tanya.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1268590873&play=1

 

[satanoperca]

Just thought I would revive this thread with the shock that interest rates are on the way up again.

0.25% could not hurt anyone as people in Australia are not over leverage with mortgage debt or are they.

Unemployment figures out Thursday, I'm predicting a slight increase, just following the trend.

Got to love this great country and the RBA for showing some leadership.

Oh and FHBG reducing further incoming months.

 

[robots]

hello,

yeah top effort RBA, once again we leading the way

thankyou
Grandmaster Robots

 

[CamKawa]

Yes it's good to see rates going up and the FHOG going out the door.

 

[robots]

hello,

First Home Owners Boost out the door, yeah and everything is going up

see its all a zero sum game brothers

thankyou
Grandmaster Flash

 

[nunthewiser]

hello,


see its all a zero sum game brothers

thankyou
Grandmaster Flash

yep

sum will end up with zero once this cycle has done its rounds

sunshine and lollipops brother flash

 

[MACCA350]

Were talking to Porter Davis this morning about the Marriot and the fellow mentioned that their base price has dropped over the last year(I didn't ask by how much)......not to mention they have upped their 'luxury upgrade package' from $53k(cost $3k) to $72k(cost $5k).........that makes two builders that I know of now(Henley as I mentioned earlier "Double story discount has gone from $15k to $30k with $50k worth of 'luxury' upgrades for free(previously cost $3k), I dare say more will follow and deals will get better as grants reduce. These price reductions and increased inclusions far exceed the current $7k drop in FHBG Boost

So as far as building new homes.........prices seem to be dropping and inclusions seem to be increasing.

Building contracts take about 2-3 months to generate, so most volume builders need FHB to sign now to guarantee contracts before Dec 31. I'd say there are a number of FHB who decided to purchase existing properties rather than build because of this lag time

Porter Davis(Vic) lock in max 20 build start dates each month, about 2-3 months ago I was told their earliest start dates were in Feb 10'........Today 2-3 months later I was told there are still 4 start date openings for Feb. So it would seem new home building buyers are/have been slowing down, hence why they are dropping prices and increasing their inclusions.

I have a mind to wait till later in the year or early next year, I have no doubt they'll be hurting even more by then and they'll need to throw more freebies in and/or drop prices even more............that is if Krudd keeps his meddling fingers out of the pie

cheers

 

[Soft Dough]

Were talking to Porter Davis this morning about the Marriot and the fellow mentioned that their base price has dropped over the last year(I didn't ask by how much)......not to mention they have upped their 'luxury upgrade package' from $53k(cost $3k) to $72k(cost $5k).........that makes two builders that I know of now(Henley as I mentioned earlier "Double story discount has gone from $15k to $30k with $50k worth of 'luxury' upgrades for free(previously cost $3k), I dare say more will follow and deals will get better as grants reduce. These price reductions and increased inclusions far exceed the current $7k drop in FHBG Boost

So as far as building new homes.........prices seem to be dropping and inclusions seem to be increasing.

Building contracts take about 2-3 months to generate, so most volume builders need FHB to sign now to guarantee contracts before Dec 31. I'd say there are a number of FHB who decided to purchase existing properties rather than build because of this lag time

Porter Davis(Vic) lock in max 20 build start dates each month, about 2-3 months ago I was told their earliest start dates were in Feb 10'........Today 2-3 months later I was told there are still 4 start date openings for Feb. So it would seem new home building buyers are/have been slowing down, hence why they are dropping prices and increasing their inclusions.

I have a mind to wait till later in the year or early next year, I have no doubt they'll be hurting even more by then and they'll need to throw more freebies in and/or drop prices even more............that is if Krudd keeps his meddling fingers out of the pie

cheers

But how is this possible?

I mean, there are some on this forum who almost believe that developers run on razor thin margins, FHBG was not used with leverage to artificially pump up prices, and that, you know we are different here.

 

[Beej]

So is it rising interest rates that are going to crash the housing market now is it? You mean like we had back when this and the other housing threads on ASF were started? Everything has come full circle! Let the debate rage for another 3 years then!

Cheers,

Beej

 

[satanoperca]

Beej,

Interest at there peak last year certaintly slowed the market and in some areas saw a decent pullback on prices.

0.25% is tiny, but as the RBA has noted it is going to gradually ease interest rates back to normal levels.

Reduced FHBG and interest rates back to norm will certainly put the brakes on the market.

Beej, you are in Sydney. Hasn't Sydney prices stagnated for the last six years.

 

[michael_selway]

Beej,

Interest at there peak last year certaintly slowed the market and in some areas saw a decent pullback on prices.

0.25% is tiny, but as the RBA has noted it is going to gradually ease interest rates back to normal levels.

Reduced FHBG and interest rates back to norm will certainly put the brakes on the market.

Beej, you are in Sydney. Hasn't Sydney prices stagnated for the last six years.

The real question is how high the RBA will lift interest rates in this cycle?



thx

MS

 

[Aussiejeff]

The real question is how high the RBA will lift interest rates in this cycle?



thx

MS

Maybe the difference in that graph is simply down to the (relatively) massive immigration & foreign student numbers the Oz gummint continues to pump-prime the housing/rental market with?

Simple numbers game really. If local housing market & prices start to dip, just pump up the jam a bit more to keep the souffle rising?

Anyway, it seems the gummint has no concerns at all about rising interest rates if their responses to the first eensy-weensy tick up is anything to go by. They still seem chuffed by whatever moves the "market" might make, whether that be up or down. It's ALL positive, dudes!

 

[satanoperca]

As posted in the other thread but more appropriate in this one:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26213424-5018001,00.html

Rapid interest rate rises. It cannot be, it is unfair, it is not right. Crickey we shouldn't have taking out such a large mortgage. Govnuts please save us, we have been brainwashed by sundry and all that house prices never fall.

Oh, I can hear the cries of pitty already and it has only just begun.

Swanny will be out telling the RBA how to do their job any minute now.

And an article about WA.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/-/wa/6219758/first-home-buyers-free-up-rental-properties/

New REIWA president Alan Bourke said with a slack vacancy rate and substantial number of new homes just finished or being built, Perth did not have a housing shortage like the east coast.

Time will tell if the same applies to the east cost.

The next six months will be interesting with rising interest rates and FHBG being reduced again. Govnuts should not medal in markets, they only make things worse.

Cheers to all.

 

[explod]

satanoperca


The next six months will be interesting with rising interest rates and FHBG being reduced again. Govnuts should not medal in markets, they only make things worse.

The top wealthy classes control the banks and in many respects the governments. It will pan out for the wealthy only and no amout of jawboing will make a fiddlers .........

 

[MrBurns]

As posted in the other thread but more appropriate in this one:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,26213424-5018001,00.html
Rapid interest rate rises. It cannot be, it is unfair, it is not right. Crickey we shouldn't have taking out such a large mortgage. Govnuts please save us, we have been brainwashed by sundry and all that house prices never fall.
Oh, I can hear the cries of pitty already and it has only just begun.
Swanny will be out telling the RBA how to do their job any minute now.
And an article about WA.
Time will tell if the same applies to the east cost.
The next six months will be interesting with rising interest rates and FHBG being reduced again. Govnuts should not medal in markets, they only make things worse.
Cheers to all.

No worries everything will be fine , the arrogant little ponce will be happy to prop everything up with your money until after the next election.

But it is looking ominous for housing market isn't it, wont hurt the OS investors who probably used cash but the young Aussie couples who mortgaged to the hilt having all faith in Rudd will learn that he and his pack of drones like all other Labor Govts will let their supporters down then run and hide in the obscurity of opposition.

 

[satanoperca]

But it is looking ominous for housing market isn't it, wont hurt the OS investors who probably used cash but the young Aussie couples who mortgaged to the hilt having all faith in Rudd will learn that he and his pack of drones like all other Labor Govts will let their supporters down then run and hide in the obscurity of opposition.

I couldn't agree more, except Labor will blame it on the Lib's.

One positive from Labor is that they gave the money to the people and not the banks like the US. Economic modelling has shown this to be far more effective at reducing unemployment and stimulating the economy than feed fat bankers more lunch.

 

[Soft Dough]

One positive from Labor is that they gave the money to the people and not the banks like the US. Economic modelling has shown this to be far more effective at reducing unemployment and stimulating the economy than feed fat bankers more lunch.

Krudds spending was stimulatory for the extremely short term ( a few months ). Now that we purchased $900 TV from China with taxpayers money, we now have to pay it, and the interest on it back to them.

Seems like we are starting to have to pay for it now, and so we should.

If we had no real effect from the economic downturn, it is sensible to allow interest rates to do what they are meant to do, and it seems that the Reserve bank has decided that enough is enough for the housing market, considering that analysts have said 20% increases over the next couple of years with inflation low.

Looks like we have been correct in saying that the increased FHBG was not necessary and a waste of money which could have gone to creation of jobs rather than lining of developer's pockets.