House prices to keep falling for years

[wayneL]

Jesus!

**wonder what bargains will be had in Wandina etc if this continues.

 

[nunthewiser]

Jesus!

**wonder what bargains will be had in Wandina etc if this continues.

there was blocks being auctioned in the wandina area by a "developer " recentlt at a 1/3-1/2 the price of market prices right next door in seacrest /mt tarcoola ..

LOTS of brand new houses been up for sale in this area in the last 6 months and not moving

BUT established homes in the older areas holding there prices fairly well so far at present and moving slowly

lot of pain involved with the "mining /mining reliant workers " up here at present and hates to think what will be the go once intrest rates start moving north again

hey i could be wrong and everything will be fine for them ...... on a humility aspect i truly hope it is

on an investment view point ....... bring it on i say

 

[trainspotter]

LOL ... Good on ya nunthewiser. I have just committed to 10 units in Seacrest for construction of 2.5million. Gee ... I hope I sell them now ??? Price and product mate. Majority of stuff currently on the market here has been bought by greedy real estate agents looking for listings. Not worth what they reckon IMO. No point listing a place for 535k when it aint worth 480k? True they might have achieved price consideration 12 months ago due to rising market (housing bubble) and slightly overheated players delving where they shouldn't but like everything in the real estate world, if it is priced right and it is presented well ..... IT WILL SELL. Nuffin wrong with making a "little" profit on property, lets say 30k per transaction? Do it 10 times a year and it soon adds up. Take away the interest component (if you have to) plus stamp duties etc and a nice little earner is out there. But what would I know? Milk the cow slowly and it will deliver you cream. LOL

 

[nunthewiser]

Price and product mate.

No point listing a place for 535k when it aint worth 480k?

if it is priced right and it is presented well ..... IT WILL SELL. Nuffin wrong with making a "little" profit on property, lets say 30k per transaction?

totally agree with all of the above

BUT theres places up around seacrest and behind in that maze of new subdivisons that were being built with moneys that ppl borrowed to the hilt at the height of the prices ........ LOTS of young crew helped with the handouts , earning top dollar working out at the many mines and suppliers here that all of a sudden found themselves with no work .... they cant even currently get work at gull tarcoola /440 drummonds . young "turbo" (family owner) has got a list 3 ft long of applicants to work at both servos from newly out of work new residents to town that came here from other areas to make there future and reap the mining dollars.

LOL i dont think you got too much to worry about with ya development , plenty of demand for unit rentals i hear.

i own property and land in Geraldton also and regard them as great investments , BUT im am not in a position where i have to sell them to try and clear debts i cannot cover anymore

big difference

 

[trainspotter]

WOW ... a few of us seem to be missing the point here. Owning property is just like buying derivatives and CFD trading and the stock market in general. You just don't go out and buy the first thing that throws it's head up at you? Surely research and motions of discovery have something to do with it? May as well put it all on the craps table at the Casino instead. I dunno about you guys but after a lot of research and indicative responses I will buy shares at a certain time due to current undervalue or future prospect releases etc. Same as I buy property in certain areas due to infrastructure programmes in the area or undervalued. IMO. Stick to what you know. If property works and you like green titles in the safe then go for it. If you have a penchant for ascertainable risk then go and buy shares. There are THREE sustainables out there that make money. Shares ... Interest ... Property. SIP ... In that order. Looky looky shares have gone up to record 10 month highs, what do you reckon is going up next? Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh I dunno? Interest rates maybe? Ooooooooooer ... logical that property will follow. How much you ask? Why ... 8% per annum is a standard rule of thumb. If you are clever there are areas that will crack 20%. Not the startling 159% like MMR and BUY and such but it suits "others" investment strategies.

So lets lay off the playground **** and add some real hot topic discussion to the forum. Australia is a big country so don't just look in your own backyard. Go to Karratha, Townsville, Collie, Adelaide, Hobart, even bloody Meekatharra has blocks for 10 grand for crying out loud. Download Google Earth and have a bloody look around. Get onto the Govt website and look for infrastructure spending in the areas.

Rant over .... normal transmission to resume.

 

[nunthewiser]

lol

 

[trainspotter]

totally agree with all of the above

BUT theres places up around seacrest and behind in that maze of new subdivisons that were being built with moneys that ppl borrowed to the hilt at the height of the prices ........ LOTS of young crew helped with the handouts , earning top dollar working out at the many mines and suppliers here that all of a sudden found themselves with no work .... they cant even currently get work at gull tarcoola /440 drummonds . young "turbo" (family owner) has got a list 3 ft long of applicants to work at both servos from newly out of work new residents to town that came here from other areas to make there future and reap the mining dollars.

LOL i dont think you got too much to worry about with ya development , plenty of demand for unit rentals i hear.

i own property and land in Geraldton also and regard them as great investments , BUT im am not in a position where i have to sell them to try and clear debts i cannot cover anymore

big difference

True to all of the above. Misguided CUB's earning too much money did not help the situation at all. Once again I reiterate, they are the ones who put the noose around their necks with no escape route. Buying a house is a big investment and to not think through the consequences of non payment due to loss of income is just plain stoooooooopid in my book.

It will turn around eventually and in the meantime if there are any repo sales that look like a worthwhile dabble I will keep the chequebook at the ready. The other ones I like are the marriage breakdown situations. House has just gotta sell. LOL. All is fair in love and business I say.

 

[nunthewiser]

It will turn around eventually and in the meantime if there are any repo sales that look like a worthwhile dabble I will keep the chequebook at the ready. The other ones I like are the marriage breakdown situations. House has just gotta sell. LOL. All is fair in love and business I say.

amen

 

[billv]

but hey, I live in a different world to the rest of you don't I.....

your words not mine
You can always cross over to the other side and join us

 

[Early Bird]

so, would it be fair to say... in summary... that there is disagreement as to the immediate future direction of house prices?

there seem to be good arguments on both sides, and i suppose a lot depends on the overall economy, which in itself could be affected by any new crisis in the global economy.

personally i think nothing too dramatic will happen either way, as there is plenty of scope to use interest rates to either stimulate or dampen the housing market depending on its next move.

having said that i predicted the UK housing market would not crash a few years ago, and it did a few months later!

confused!!!

 

[Glen48]

Will the crash has started:
His best-value tips were houses in Double Bay, where prices fell 35 per cent in the past 12 months, North Avoca, on the central coast, Bellevue Hill, Palm Beach and Seaforth, where values dropped fell between 26 and 28 per cent.

The best-value locations for apartments were Ultimo in inner Sydney, where prices fell 43 per cent, and Avoca Beach, Balmain East, Milsons Point and Mona Vale, where prices fell between 21 and 27 per cent.

However, Mr McGrath said, prices for units, particularly in locations such as Ultimo, would recover more slowly with the first-home owners grant being wound down this year.

Mr McGrath expected rising interest rates and the end of the first-home owners grant to dent, but not reverse, the lower end of the housing market, but the million-dollar-plus homes sector would strengthen in line with the improved economic outlook.

Read the full story in The Australian.

The First Home Bribe drops back next Month , the 0.6% growth figures are rubbery and 3 months out of date all ready, IR expected to rise by .25% next month. If you haven't sold by now it is to late.

 

[Early Bird]

Will the crash has started:
His best-value tips were houses in Double Bay, where prices fell 35 per cent in the past 12 months, North Avoca, on the central coast, Bellevue Hill, Palm Beach and Seaforth, where values dropped fell between 26 and 28 per cent.

The best-value locations for apartments were Ultimo in inner Sydney, where prices fell 43 per cent, and Avoca Beach, Balmain East, Milsons Point and Mona Vale, where prices fell between 21 and 27 per cent.

However, Mr McGrath said, prices for units, particularly in locations such as Ultimo, would recover more slowly with the first-home owners grant being wound down this year.

Mr McGrath expected rising interest rates and the end of the first-home owners grant to dent, but not reverse, the lower end of the housing market, but the million-dollar-plus homes sector would strengthen in line with the improved economic outlook.

Read the full story in The Australian.

The First Home Bribe drops back next Month , the 0.6% growth figures are rubbery and 3 months out of date all ready, IR expected to rise by .25% next month. If you haven't sold by now it is to late.

i think you are mis-representing that article a little... he is saying that there were big drops in 2008 but market is now rising.

the first sentence in the article is:

CAPITAL city housing markets have shrugged off the global financial crisis, with values rising 5.9 per cent in the first seven months of the year

and then goes on to say there are still bargains to be had due to earlier falls...

so to headline you're extract with "the crash has started" seems a little misleading to me?

 

[satanoperca]

The only way is up!

One-third of nation at risk of loan default

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,26036211-2702,00.html

Dunn & Bradstreet found that 33 per cent of postcodes had fallen into the "high-risk" category of financial distress, with Victorian suburbs facing the highest risk of defaulting on debts. This is up 30per cent on the same time last year.

What with government stimulus and handouts, lowest interest rates in 46 years and low unemployment. How can this be?

"As a country, we have amassed a lot of debt. Each person has $160 of credit for every $100 earned. If unemployment rises or interest rates increase, we will see a significant fallout."

"Between the last recession and now, we have over-borrowed as a nation. Consumer debt has increased 400 per cent and 500per cent for NSW. That is where the risk is."

That could be the reason.

 

[gav]

Satanoperca, what criteria must be met to make the "high risk" category of financial stress?

 

[satanoperca]

Gav, have no idea, but it does make for great sensational journalism.

I would like to see an analysis based on current default rates, those behind in mortgage payments etc.

What exactly is financial distress? I am financially distressed that I cannot afford a new sport scar this year, but are far from going hungry.

 

[gav]

Yes I am financially distressed as well as I want to buy a WRX or perhaps a Golf GTI, but seeing as I am the only person contributing to the mortgage at the moment, it would be a silly thing for me to do.

 

[So_Cynical]

NSW legal aid have a "mortgage stress" handbook http://www.legalaid.nsw.gov.au/mortgagestresshandbook/

The definition of mortgage stress is when more than 35 per cent of household income is used to pay the loan....i spose there are other factors, still there would be lots of households where over 50% of household income goes on the mortgage.

 

[Mofra]

The definition of mortgage stress is when more than 35 per cent of household income is used to pay the loan....i spose there are other factors, still there would be lots of households where over 50% of household income goes on the mortgage.

I'm technically stressed in terms of investment debt then.
Wouldn't swap my life with anyone's.

 

[gav]

The definition of mortgage stress is when more than 35 per cent of household income is used to pay the loan....i spose there are other factors, still there would be lots of households where over 50% of household income goes on the mortgage.

I take it that is total household income, eg. my income before tax is taken out? If so, my mortgage only equates to 18% of my income. Don't know how ppl have kids and manage to live when in "mortgage stress" Unless of course they mean income AFTER tax is taken out, which makes my mortgage just under 23% of my income.

And I should say thank-you, because I had to check my mortgage account online to calculate that - which led me to notice that I believe CBA over charged me in interest last month.

 

[Lancelot]

The definition of mortgage stress is when more than 35 per cent of household income is used to pay the loan.

What a stupid definition. I have over 50% of my household income going into a mortgage but I also have more than the average Australian wage left over for beer money.

Am I supposed to feel stressed?