House prices to keep falling for years
- Thread starter Pommiegranite
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Anyone know any good, free property data websites for Brisbane?
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![Image_0728-1920(ABC1)[ABC News (VIC)].jpg](https://aussiestockforums.b-cdn.net/data/attachments/27/27869-67616eee521a386b62da71519190b155.jpg)
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The only thing that comes to mind when viewing that graph is that we are certainly different here in Aus, bigger and better at creating bubbles.
KRUDD has surely got a solution to this problem, put the nation in debt, that's what got us into this situation so logic says it must be what gets us out, proving the saying that two wrongs can make a right.
Cheers
KRUDD has surely got a solution to this problem, put the nation in debt, that's what got us into this situation so logic says it must be what gets us out, proving the saying that two wrongs can make a right.
Cheers
Why does rising prices over time of a scarce commodity/asset with large demand automatically = a bubble???? I think bubble is becoming a way over-used term.....
All that Kohler graph tells me is that the US has suffered a systemic financial crisis due to lax regulation and insane financial/banking practices, resulting in a house price crash due to an almost unprecedented wave of foreclosures and forced selling + previous massive over-building. This then even fed a negative feedback loop due to it being the root cause of the subsequent US economic contraction = rising unemployment = further sapping demand for housing + increase in the foreclosure rate. So their market has over-shot massively to the down-side - it's not a "normal" situation.
Australia has not experienced these problems, as demonstrated by the difference in performance of the 2 residential housing markets! QED. Our market has behaved more "normally". The US market fall is not permanent - it will rise again soon as sure as night follows day, as it crashed. It will rise much faster than our market will - and when that happens will everyone here be wondering why our market is not increasing at the same rate? I can't wait to make graphs starting at 2008/2009 that will show our market massively under-valued compared to the US in a few years
Cheers,
Beej
All that Kohler graph tells me is that the US has suffered a systemic financial crisis due to lax regulation and insane financial/banking practices, resulting in a house price crash due to an almost unprecedented wave of foreclosures and forced selling + previous massive over-building. This then even fed a negative feedback loop due to it being the root cause of the subsequent US economic contraction = rising unemployment = further sapping demand for housing + increase in the foreclosure rate. So their market has over-shot massively to the down-side - it's not a "normal" situation.
Australia has not experienced these problems, as demonstrated by the difference in performance of the 2 residential housing markets! QED. Our market has behaved more "normally". The US market fall is not permanent - it will rise again soon as sure as night follows day, as it crashed. It will rise much faster than our market will - and when that happens will everyone here be wondering why our market is not increasing at the same rate? I can't wait to make graphs starting at 2008/2009 that will show our market massively under-valued compared to the US in a few years
Cheers,
Beej
So is it nearly time to shut this thread down???
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...-jump-33-in-second-quarter-20090730-e1r4.html
And this bit - so much for the top end tanking; it's over people - you had your chance to get into the top end at historically low prices late last year and maybe earlier this year. Prices probably still off the peaks in this segment, but not for long:
So it's no longer just about FHBs and grants etc (as has been pointed out by many here on ASF for the past several months), and median prices in nearly all capital cities now equal to or greater than their late 2007 peak - so much for prices to fall for years..... looks like Steve Keen better be getting his winter woollies ready for a very cold walk to the top of Mt Kosciusko!
Cheers,
Beej
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-new...-jump-33-in-second-quarter-20090730-e1r4.html
And this bit - so much for the top end tanking; it's over people - you had your chance to get into the top end at historically low prices late last year and maybe earlier this year. Prices probably still off the peaks in this segment, but not for long:
So it's no longer just about FHBs and grants etc (as has been pointed out by many here on ASF for the past several months), and median prices in nearly all capital cities now equal to or greater than their late 2007 peak - so much for prices to fall for years..... looks like Steve Keen better be getting his winter woollies ready for a very cold walk to the top of Mt Kosciusko!
Cheers,
Beej
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It's all FHB bribes and low interest rates, both will be over very soon, then you can close this thread down and start another one called -
"House prices to crash for years"
"House prices to crash for years"
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Nothing's ever over.
The housing has had a massive adrenaline shot to save its life. It's feeling fab at the moment. But the patient still has the same problem.
just a little reminder...it was the current US president himself who started the ball rolling for the NINJA loans...the brief summary....when black americans without a job, or income were knocked back for a loan from the banks....Barack Obama and his team at ACORN accused the banks of racism....so the banks were forced to lend the money, now known as NINJA loans...which contributed significantly to the GFC
and the group ACORN which I believe Obama is still a member of...consequently received over 140 billion dollars of taxpayer money from their GFC
extracts..........................
In the 1980s, groups such as the activists at ACORN began pushing charges of "redlining"-claims that banks discriminated against minorities in mortgage lending. In 1989, sympathetic members of Congress got the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act amended to force banks to collect racial data on mortgage applicants; this allowed various studies to be ginned up that seemed to validate the original accusation.
In fact, minority mortgage applications were rejected more frequently than other applications-but the overwhelming reason wasn't racial discrimination, but simply that minorities tend to have weaker finances.
ACORN showed its colors again in 1991, by taking over the House Banking Committee room for two days to protest efforts to scale back the CRA. Obama represented ACORN in the Buycks-Roberson v. Citibank Fed. Sav. Bank, 1994 suit against redlining. Most significant of all, ACORN was the driving force behind a 1995 regulatory revision pushed through by the Clinton Administration that greatly expanded the CRA and laid the groundwork for the Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac borne financial crisis we now confront. Barack Obama was the attorney representing ACORN in this effort. With this new authority, ACORN used its subsidiary, ACORN Housing, to promote subprime loans more aggressively.Barack Obama, the Cloward-Piven candidate, no matter how he describes himself, has been a radical activist for most of his political career. That activism has been in support of organizations and initiatives that at their heart seek to tear the pillars of this nation asunder in order to replace them with their demented socialist vision. Their influence has spread so far and so wide that despite their blatant culpability in the current financial crisis, they are able to manipulate Capital Hill politicians to cut them into $140 billion of the bailout pie!http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/09/barack_obama_and_the_strategy.html
and the group ACORN which I believe Obama is still a member of...consequently received over 140 billion dollars of taxpayer money from their GFC
extracts..........................
In the 1980s, groups such as the activists at ACORN began pushing charges of "redlining"-claims that banks discriminated against minorities in mortgage lending. In 1989, sympathetic members of Congress got the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act amended to force banks to collect racial data on mortgage applicants; this allowed various studies to be ginned up that seemed to validate the original accusation.
In fact, minority mortgage applications were rejected more frequently than other applications-but the overwhelming reason wasn't racial discrimination, but simply that minorities tend to have weaker finances.
ACORN showed its colors again in 1991, by taking over the House Banking Committee room for two days to protest efforts to scale back the CRA. Obama represented ACORN in the Buycks-Roberson v. Citibank Fed. Sav. Bank, 1994 suit against redlining. Most significant of all, ACORN was the driving force behind a 1995 regulatory revision pushed through by the Clinton Administration that greatly expanded the CRA and laid the groundwork for the Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac borne financial crisis we now confront. Barack Obama was the attorney representing ACORN in this effort. With this new authority, ACORN used its subsidiary, ACORN Housing, to promote subprime loans more aggressively.Barack Obama, the Cloward-Piven candidate, no matter how he describes himself, has been a radical activist for most of his political career. That activism has been in support of organizations and initiatives that at their heart seek to tear the pillars of this nation asunder in order to replace them with their demented socialist vision. Their influence has spread so far and so wide that despite their blatant culpability in the current financial crisis, they are able to manipulate Capital Hill politicians to cut them into $140 billion of the bailout pie!http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/09/barack_obama_and_the_strategy.html
What? FHBs using grants to buy $1M++ properties are they? Did you read the article? Top end increasing at DOUBLE the rate of the low end.
PS: It was your hero JW Howard who first introduced the FHB grant and supposedly ushered in low interest rates anyway! Do you loath him for it???
Nothing's ever over.
The housing has had a massive adrenaline shot to save its life. It's feeling fab at the moment. But the patient still has the same problem.
Just to keep the context, my comment "it's over" was referring more to the top end tanking - which I believe now has been and gone. Of course anything can happen in the future, but I think the "patients problem" has been massively over-stated and their potential rate of recovery under-estimated.....
Cheers,
Beej
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What? FHBs using grants to buy $1M++ properties are they? Did you read the article? Top end increasing at DOUBLE the rate of the low end.
PS: It was your hero JW Howard who first introduced the FHB grant and supposedly ushered in low interest rates anyway! Do you loath him for it???
Thats all real estate industry BS I know for a fact the opposite is the case, upper end properties are off by at least 20% in Melbourne and I dont give a root what John Howard did I'd give a months pay to have him back now.
Don't worry Mr Stephens will save the day Except nobody has really worked out how..
Not suprisingly an article on how raids have been recently conducted on realestate agents in Victoria by Fair Trading on rampantly underquoting receives little note:
http://business.theage.com.au/busin...-consumer-affairs-victoria-20090729-e0eo.html
Also worth a watch if you missed it.. Fairfax funded junketts for the realestate industry. Always helps when you have a fair press
http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s2637817.htm
Except nobody has really worked out how.. Not suprisingly an article on how raids have been recently conducted on realestate agents in Victoria by Fair Trading on rampantly underquoting receives little note:
http://business.theage.com.au/busin...-consumer-affairs-victoria-20090729-e0eo.html
Also worth a watch if you missed it.. Fairfax funded junketts for the realestate industry. Always helps when you have a fair press
http://www.abc.net.au/mediawatch/transcripts/s2637817.htm
lets keep overlooking the facts to push your case....
the FHB grant was introduced to overcome the extra cost of the GST, on building new homes....the average cost of building a new home then was estimated at 140,000 (excludes land) hence the 14,000 to cover the GST
it was a good idea, but dont get so high and mighty about the grant, the state govt takes back almost immediately anywhere between 25,000 and 50,000 or more...for new homes......
at about the same time Costello introduced the baby bonus of $5000 to encourage our population growth, as future taxpayers....
parents now received tax free family benefit payments of about 185 pf per child.....its all free money, or so it seems...for the middle to lower end earners
so for the kids buying a 2nd hand house they get 14,000, soon to be phrased back to 7000, its really a tiny amount in the greater scheme of things...
if the median house in Melb is now 472,000 does 14,000 really make any difference
the FHB grant was introduced to overcome the extra cost of the GST, on building new homes....the average cost of building a new home then was estimated at 140,000 (excludes land) hence the 14,000 to cover the GST
it was a good idea, but dont get so high and mighty about the grant, the state govt takes back almost immediately anywhere between 25,000 and 50,000 or more...for new homes......
at about the same time Costello introduced the baby bonus of $5000 to encourage our population growth, as future taxpayers....
parents now received tax free family benefit payments of about 185 pf per child.....its all free money, or so it seems...for the middle to lower end earners
so for the kids buying a 2nd hand house they get 14,000, soon to be phrased back to 7000, its really a tiny amount in the greater scheme of things...
if the median house in Melb is now 472,000 does 14,000 really make any difference
You know for a fact? Are you sure that's not yesterday's news? Maybe they are now only off 10% - and in another 3 months won't be down at all? All the data seems to be painting that picture! Stay in denial if you like though! Just like you do over your hero Mr Howard and all his short-comings
Cheers,
Beej
Oh further to this: Check this chart out incorporating the RP-Data for June also released today (which confirms the APM data as well by the way - see http://www.businessspectator.com.au...s-back-pd20090730-UF3VL?OpenDocument&src=is):
As you can see - the top 20% of the market bottomed in Dec/Jan and has been rising ever since. The other 80% of the market is now past where it was at the late 07/early 08 peak. I think your "facts' ARE yesterdays news Mr Burns....
PS: This thread is done - over to the "prices to rise for years" thread from now on!
Cheers,
Beej
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You're obsessed with this Beej you'll need a lot of drugs when the truth hits home.
I live in the inner east of Melbourne I know whats happened to the top end and I know what will happen accross the whole market when the BS FHB boost ends and interest rates start to rise again.
I dont care what RP Data says, I live there and I was an agent for 25 years.
Dont show me anymore dodgy graphs please or I'll be forced to contrive a few of my own.
Actually, this money went from the Government to the seller - the kids just passed it on & got no real benefit due to prices rises. In the case of a new home, it lined the builders & developers pockets.
Good to see our taxes are being used responsibly
Cheers
buckeroo, you still dont 'get it'....the builders had to pay the govt GST, and were forced to charge the new home owners GST....so only the govt got the money back...back then everyone was scared of the GST, the govt feared people would not buy new homes because of the GST, so they gave the FHB the grant to cover the GST, then the govt feared everyone would only buy a new house, so they gave another reduced grant to FHB to buy the 2nd hand houses....
its a pittance imo....
so lets summarise, govt gives fhb grant of 14,000 to cover the GST on new homes, the kids hand over the money to the builder, the builder gives it back to the govt....so where is the benefit....the govt appears to look good to fhb's.....but its all just a round robbin affair....the govt ends up with the money back
its a pittance imo....
so lets summarise, govt gives fhb grant of 14,000 to cover the GST on new homes, the kids hand over the money to the builder, the builder gives it back to the govt....so where is the benefit....the govt appears to look good to fhb's.....but its all just a round robbin affair....the govt ends up with the money back
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Actually, this money went from the Government to the seller - the kids just passed it on & got no real benefit due to prices rises. In the case of a new home, it lined the builders & developers pockets.
Good to see our taxes are being used responsibly
Cheers
EXACTLY - this is what I've ben saying all along but it just goes over the permabulls heads.
The increase in the FHBG has just fed real estate agents and property owners wanting to offload at good prices, the FHB has got nothing but stuck in an overinflated property mortgaged up to his eyeballs just waiting to go broke when the market turns, as it will, but HEY ! who gives a stuff ?, Rudds popularity is up, that's what this was all about anyway wasn't it ?
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