House prices to keep falling for years

[MACCA350]

Mr Brumby said there was no evidence the grants were inflating house prices and competition was giving buyers value for money.

What a crock. June I got a quote from Metricon to build for $271k ...........last week I asked again and was quoted $281k........$10k increase in one month! Which just so happened to be when the total VIC grants went from $26k to $32k

I want what Brumby's smokin'

cheers

 

[MrBurns]

Brumby, Rudd and all the labor bastards havent got a clue or just lie through their teeth.

 

[MACCA350]

More than 5,000 Victorian first-home buyers entered the real estate market last month in a buying frenzy fuelled by the first-home owners grant.

A record 5,193 first home purchases were made in June, including 1,489 newly constructed dwellings, which attract higher government incentives.

Would be interesting to see the number of overall sales for June.
REIV states 358 Auctions plus 777 Private sales for WE 19 July........that's 1135 total sales for the week...........at that rate it's about 4900 total sales for a month.

5000 FHB for june..............4900 extrapolated total sales for a month...........Are we looking at a near 100% FHB market wait till the grant runs out!!


...........I must have missed something, coz that should be impossible

cheers

 

[Gundini]

5000 FHB for june..............4900 extrapolated total sales for a month...........Are we looking at a near 100% FHB market wait till the grant runs out!!


...........I must have missed something, coz that should be impossible

cheers

Stop it! You are getting me excited.... I completed the final sale of my sub $500K houses 3 weeks ago.

So now I'm homeless, after living in one of them. (Bloody expensive to rent back at $420pw)

The funny part was the last property. We asked $499 and was happy with $456, so that we netted $450 after commission. (Go Gecko, no affiliation) We got $498! Couldn't believe it, and could have got more but started to feel sorry for the buyers...

Gotta leave something for the next guy

 

[Beej]

Stop it! You are getting me excited.... I completed the final sale of my sub $500K houses 3 weeks ago.

So now I'm homeless, after living in one of them. (Bloody expensive to rent back at $420pw)

The funny part was the last property. We asked $499 and was happy with $456, so that we netted $450 after commission. (Go Gecko, no affiliation) We got $498! Couldn't believe it, and could have got more but started to feel sorry for the buyers...

Gotta leave something for the next guy

And you post this on the "prices to fall for years" thread that has been going for over 1 year??? This should be on the "prices to rise" thread, as you have just shown that they have!

Beej

 

[CamKawa]

A bit of property spruiking going here

Land prices bounce back

Have a look at how the volume of sales has fallen off a cliff. I don't reckon there's much strength in these prices.

 

[matty2.0]

http://www.smh.com.au/national/rentals-tightest-in-cheap-suburbs-20090722-dtmr.html

Rentals tightest in cheap suburbs
Clancy Yeates
July 23, 2009

THE rental market remains as tight as ever in Sydney's most affordable suburbs, offering scant relief for tenants, a report says.

Despite the flood of first-home buyers who have stopped renting, figures published today by SQM Research show the number of houses for rent in the western suburbs is shrinking.

In Liverpool and Bankstown, vacancy rates were 1.6 per cent in June and had not eased in the past year, SQM said. This bucks the trend across Sydney, which has the nation's highest vacancy rate of 4 per cent, fuelled by young people exploiting record low interest rates and buying property.

The managing director of SQM, Louis Christopher, said the low vacancy rates would push up rents further in the more affordable suburbs. "It is … worrying how the affordable end of the rental market is not recording any great relief, and we believe rents in this part of the market are likely to record increases in the foreseeable future," he said.

The trend is in contrast to past property downturns, when vacancy rates have eased as first-home buyers stopped renting and developers kept building.

"This time around I'm a bit concerned that we're not getting the same supply response that we had last time," Mr Christopher said. Tighter credit standards from banks were the likely cause for the shortage, he said.

In another sign that rents had failed to cool down as much as other prices, yesterday's consumer price index showed rents across Sydney rose 7.1 per cent in the year to June and 1.5 per cent in the quarter. The broader index of consumer goods and services rose 0.5 per cent in the quarter.

In contrast to the trend in outer suburbs, SQM's figures showed areas close to the city such as Leichhardt, Newtown, Surry Hills recorded higher vacancy rates of close to 5 per cent. A senior policy officer at the NSW Tenants Union, Chris Martin, said outer-Sydney suburbs could be showing tighter vacancy rates because tenants in these areas had fewer alternatives.

"Maybe there's less demand for inner-city accommodation as people live with their parents or stick with housemates," he said.

 

[MrBurns]

20 Ross Street, Kew Land value – always the litmus test – sold last year for $1,901,000, sold last weekend for $2,335,000. 20%+ profit for doing … absolutely nothing.
http://www.morrellandkoren.com.au/topend/

Lost interest say $90,000
Stamp duty say - $105,000
Rates ? say $5000
Selling costs including ads and commission say - $50,000

Profit - $434,000
Less costs $250,000

Profit = $184,000 less tax

less legals in and out say $4000 all up = $180,000

Thats less than 10% with a fair bit of risk (a lot actually)

 

[MrBurns]

A bit of property spruiking going here

Land prices bounce back

Have a look at how the volume of sales has fallen off a cliff. I don't reckon there's much strength in these prices.

I think the main reason we aren't aware more of a crunch is because the media just ignore it.

 

[explod]

I think the main reason we aren't aware more of a crunch is because the media just ignore it.

Mainstay of revenue, Real Estate Classifieds.

They are not going to shoot the golden goose and news will be biased on the bull side.

Da poor mugs at do bottom of da food chain are the ones being screwed.

 

[MrBurns]

Mainstay of revenue, Real Estate Classifieds.

They are not going to shoot the golden goose and news will be biased on the bull side.

Da poor mugs at do bottom of da food chain are the ones being screwed.

Yes and it's not just that .......much of te media are property bulls, perhaps because of their own mortgages but there are few realists out there.

 

[Trevor_S]

 

[CamKawa]

Rush rush rush. OMG check out the media hype.

Grant deadline nears for property virgins

Like lemmings off a cliff.

 

[Knobby22]

The govenrment should definitely not continue with these grants now the economy has turned. Let's see how fiscally responsible Rudd really is.

 

[kincella]

Survey finds more expecting to buy first home
Posted 3 hours 44 minutes ago

A new survey of almost 1,000 people has found close to 60 per cent of those who do not own homes expect to buy in the next 12 months.

The survey by Bankwest and the Mortgage and Finance Association of Australia says this is up from 39 per cent last November.

The association's chief executive, Phil Naylor, says the surge seems to be because of low interest rates rather than the first home owners grant.

"[That] is interesting because when we did the same survey about a year ago, people were saying the home buyers grant was an attractive point for them," he said.

"Obviously as time has gone by and even though they've had the experience of that, it's really the low interest rates that is the clincher."

Only 6.2 per cent of respondents said the first home owners grant was an incentive to buy now.
"The interest rate is the more attractive point because that's an ongoing thing," Mr Naylor said.

"It enabled you to make decisions about what sort of loan you can service and so forth and I think that's probably the driving force."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/07/25/2636216.htm

 

[CamKawa]

The survey by Bankwest and the Mortgage and Finance Association of Australia.

That's about as impartial as the HIA saying there's an acute housing shortage and we all need to desperately build more houses.

Permabull spruiking personified.

 

[MACCA350]

"The interest rate is the more attractive point because that's an ongoing thing," Mr Naylor said.

Ongoing my a$$.............do they think we'll have a 3% cash rate for the next 30years or so

..........so what's the chances those extra 20% of people jumping in because of low interest rates(and the rest taking on extra debt due to the same reason) end up hitting the wall when rates climb..........that along with the still high LVR.........are we being set up for a subprime crisis on the scale of other countries around the world that started this whole financial crisis?

Seems to me that we've weathered this financial crisis well compared to other countries, though many have taken advantage of the low rates and ongoing easy credit to increase debt.........I'd have thought we should be doing the opposite to ensure we don't get stung as the crisis recovers.........

Then again maybe the RBA will not be able to increase rates when needed due to the detrimental effect it will have on the local market, but wouldn't this kill our economy if our rate stays low when others increase? Wouldn't inflation run rampant? or would the AUD become worthless? Any economist's care to comment?
I have no idea what the effects would be but I get the sense were setting ourselves up for trouble

cheers

 

[kincella]

could we keep the posts going, without using the bad language.....

now my thoughts are......the economy is not in good shape....its going to go sideways for a long time....it will not be a V shaped recession....or even a W shape...more like a vvvvvvvv.....for another 3 years....
when interest rates go up ...only the banks pocket our money.....but the government needs your money more than the banks....to pay off that huge deficit......
they will have to keep the interest rates low...to keep the economy rolling along.....its on a knifes edge at the moment.....
people can buy the houses, using the low rates.....but they will need to hang onto them for the 5-10 years...like a prudent property investor would....

where are the ...scaredy cats...like when the recession first started over 2 years ago......with all that screaming about another 1930's depression was on us.....
its not like that at all......but not unlike another 1990's style recession

I have to wonder...with all that money rushing back into the stockmarket...as if nothing had happened and its all roses again.....seems to me to be more like a huge gamble...nothing like investing

 

[knocker]

Ongoing my a$$.............do they think we'll have a 3% cash rate for the next 30years or so

..........so what's the chances those extra 20% of people jumping in because of low interest rates(and the rest taking on extra debt due to the same reason) end up hitting the wall when rates climb..........that along with the still high LVR.........are we being set up for a subprime crisis on the scale of other countries around the world that started this whole financial crisis?

Seems to me that we've weathered this financial crisis well compared to other countries, though many have taken advantage of the low rates and ongoing easy credit to increase debt.........I'd have thought we should be doing the opposite to ensure we don't get stung as the crisis recovers.........

Then again maybe the RBA will not be able to increase rates when needed due to the detrimental effect it will have on the local market, but wouldn't this kill our economy if our rate stays low when others increase? Wouldn't inflation run rampant? or would the AUD become worthless? Any economist's care to comment?
I have no idea what the effects would be but I get the sense were setting ourselves up for trouble

cheers

Tha au dollars is way too strong at the moment. I am waiting for it to tank so I can move back home and make a killing on a slumped property market. Only a few more years to go

 

[Mc Gusto]

some perspective from a first home buyer...

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25839573-5006786,00.html

'False boom' a sign of real estate madness

ANGUS Bissland thought he would have a relatively easy time buying his first home after working in Britain and the US and witnessing the impact of the global financial crisis.

But the 30-year-old, who works in finance, could not believe the state of the property market when he got home.

He thinks the combination of low interest rates, the first-home buyer grants and people still borrowing more than they can afford has created a false property boom that could come crashing down.

As Kevin Rudd warns of higher interest rates, Mr Bissland says he is concerned about buying in Melbourne at the height of what he calls a "false economy" and then seeing the market decline because of the impact of any rate rises.

"Melbourne is the only market in the world that is going up," he said. "The city is a great place to live, but that is still a real concern for me."

Mr Bissland and his partner, Saskia Hammond, have been looking for five months for a house in Melbourne's inner south and bayside suburbs. They hope to spend about $600,000.

"It's just madness at the moment," he said of the city's record 87 per cent clearance rates for the year.

Mr Bissland said the first-home buyers grant was artificially pushing house prices up and he was worried about the impact on the market when it ends.

"I call it the first-home sellers grant," he said. "It has led to a real sellers market and that is something of a false economy. It has pushed houses that used to be $500,000 over $500,000."

Mr Bissland said the low interest rates also meant more people who could not afford to take large mortgages were doing so to get into the property market.