Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

House prices to keep falling for years

Status
Not open for further replies.
Jump to new
Lancelot said:
And your example would be?

Use figures from a crowd that only counts 70% of the numbers?

Sounds as loopy as those demographia clowns who think the world is 5 countries
Click to expand...

From your comments, you seem to be taking the collapse of the market very personally. Perhaps you might be able to take some positives out of it such as 'property values go down aswell as up'.
 
the collapse of the market ??? which country are you talking about ??? or do you call a drop yoy of a questionable 2% a 'collapse'....hehehehehe
check out the smart investor review to see how many suburbs rose 50-70% last year..with a prediction of a further rise of 20%
so what did you call the massive falls in the stockmarket ??? of 50-90% ?
 
kincella said:
the collapse of the market ??? which country are you talking about ??? or do you call a drop yoy of a questionable 2% a 'collapse'....hehehehehe
check out the smart investor review to see how many suburbs rose 50-70% last year..with a prediction of a further rise of 20%
so what did you call the massive falls in the stockmarket ??? of 50-90% ?
Click to expand...

Kincy, if people stop buying food from supermarkets, then that is a collapse in that market, irrespective if a few still wish to pay the extortionate prices.

Here's a link to help you out:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market
 
this is the reason I suggested the comments were worth a read...this one from Chris Joye.......
it helps to provide clues.....thay have a substanital affect...

****The ABS on the other hand uses data that it gets from the banks. One private explanation I heard from the government today was that the banks are taking much, much longer to process home loans and this may be causing havoc with the ABS data--ie, they are not getting the real-time information they would otherwise want.If the banks are also feeding the ABS physical valuation data as well as sales, then this would be another explanation--given that the valuers' estimates have a downward bias in the current climate.By pooling data over 3 months, the ABS will be heavily skewed to January's results, which were by far the worst of the 3 months (according to both APM and RP Data's numbers).
and this..............
Since there is a 7-90 day delay (from exchange of contracts) before all the index providers get the data from the VGs, APM (I think) and RP Data-Rismark use sales information inputted by agents to supplement the government data. Empirical testing over time on this data shows that it is virtually 100% accurate. There is a reason for this: around 70-80% of all agents use RP Data's software for their own businesses. The sales data they input in turn impacts their own comparable sales analysis and has to be accurate.The empirical testing proves this out.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ument&src=is&is=Property&blog=Concrete Detail
 
kincella said:
Whoops....Vic Govt increasing the FHB's grant on new homes from $5000 to $11000...and the extra for regionals to $4500....so there is $15500...and if the Fed govt drops that extra 7000...new homes still due for $14000...
so $29500...available in Vic regionals...and ...$25000 for the city folk...
:D :sheep::D
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25437536-31037,00.html
Click to expand...

Fantastic news!

Keeps the economy ticking over nicely and will further drive the falls we're currently seeing in purchase and rental of existing detached housing as more and more new stock comes onto the market...
 
UBIQUITOUS said:
From your comments, you seem to be taking the collapse of the market very personally. Perhaps you might be able to take some positives out of it such as 'property values go down aswell as up'.
Click to expand...

Why do all you numpties in the bear, or hardly done by and jealous Gen y camp always think that if someone comments, they must be taking it personally?

I have seen no evidence of a collapse, my properties prices have remained as stable as they were through the last recession, if indeed we are in one, and my tenants are still paying rent just like they did then.

The difference this time is that the debt has reduced and the rent is now enough that it supports my traveling habits.

Thanks tenants, much appreciated.
 
kincella said:
this is the reason I suggested the comments were worth a read...this one from Chris Joye.......
it helps to provide clues.....thay have a substanital affect...

****The ABS on the other hand uses data that it gets from the banks. One private explanation I heard from the government today was that the banks are taking much, much longer to process home loans and this may be causing havoc with the ABS data--ie, they are not getting the real-time information they would otherwise want.If the banks are also feeding the ABS physical valuation data as well as sales, then this would be another explanation--given that the valuers' estimates have a downward bias in the current climate.By pooling data over 3 months, the ABS will be heavily skewed to January's results, which were by far the worst of the 3 months (according to both APM and RP Data's numbers).
and this..............
Since there is a 7-90 day delay (from exchange of contracts) before all the index providers get the data from the VGs, APM (I think) and RP Data-Rismark use sales information inputted by agents to supplement the government data. Empirical testing over time on this data shows that it is virtually 100% accurate. There is a reason for this: around 70-80% of all agents use RP Data's software for their own businesses. The sales data they input in turn impacts their own comparable sales analysis and has to be accurate.The empirical testing proves this out.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au...ument&src=is&is=Property&blog=Concrete Detail
Click to expand...


LA LA LA, (bears heads go back in sand) only information that supports bears views, no matter how flawed, can be used.
 
singlefished said:
Fantastic news!

Keeps the economy ticking over nicely and will further drive the falls we're currently seeing in purchase and rental of existing detached housing as more and more new stock comes onto the market...
Click to expand...
That's what I reckon, the government should have done this maybe 4-5 years ago. Now is not the time to ramp up the building of more houses just as prices start to buckle. This bubble may burst with a rather loud bang and voters may well be right to point the finger at the government come election time.
 
2 examples....loan application early Dec 8...loan offer 29.01.09 = 7.5 weeks
next loan application 5.03.09....still waiting for the paperwork...8 weeks
in the old days 2000-2002 approval same...1 week, then about 1 week for paperwork to come thru
in the recent cases approval was given in 48 hours or earlier....but its the backlog in loans that created the 8 weeks delay so far...
so in the first case...sales should have gone thru in Dec...in this case Feb
the second case whould have gone thru in the Mar quarter now lucky if its May
so I would not be expecting a slow down in house figures....when there is such a long delay in the paperwork
oh and if other states follow Vic (which they will) with a state boost....goodness only knows when this will slow
oh and I am all for it if it keeps people in jobs....as it is intended to do:)
 
anyone with a copy of that smart investor report that can copy it here?
they did say there were plenty of affordable homes still out there...I think they mentioned Lockhart in Nsw for under $200k's.....see a block of land there for about $30k's...and mentioned hundreds of cheap suburbs
 
CamKawa said:
That's what I reckon, the government should have done this maybe 4-5 years ago. Now is not the time to ramp up the building of more houses just as prices start to buckle. This bubble may burst with a rather loud bang and voters may well be right to point the finger at the government come election time.
Click to expand...

Trying to read more into it - this could be a plan to "drive" prices down actually.

Thinking about it, these generous bonuses to FHB's can't go on forever. If the Vic Government is providing $20K and the Commonwealth continue to provide $21K (total $41k) for new properties then they'll have to keep stumping up forever and a day if prices continued to trend up.

If however, cost of existing stock continues to drop as we're currently seeing and prices end up somewhat lower, then the Governments can subsequently claim victory as house prices across the board are more affordable as the bubble is slowly deflated. The grants would ultimately be easier to remove in a cheaper market as there would be less need for them.

The faster prices come down, the faster the grants can be removed.

hmmmmmm........
 
I agree with the removing of the grant on existing homes, but increasing it on new homes is just ridiculous but what do you expect from Labour.

Hasn't Vic gov got a huge deficiet already, whats another $120M - just borrowed money.

Maybe a new challenge between the US & Oz, who can create the biggest subprime for future generations to enjoy.

This game has still a long way to play out and will be interesting watching, but I am out of property for the moment and debt free a good feeling.
 
satanoperca said:
I agree with the removing of the grant on existing homes, but increasing it on new homes is just ridiculous but what do you expect from Labour.
Click to expand...
I'm not trying to justify the grant but the government’s way of thinking (and that of the HIA) is to encourage the building of new homes in order to stem the tide of rising unemployment. Mind you I think unemployment may skyrocket all the same.

The more houses they build the more prices will fall.
 
CamKawa said:
The more houses they build the more prices will fall.
Click to expand...

The more median/average prices will fall yes, and perhaps values of houses in the areas where the majority of new homes are built. But prices of established houses in built-out established areas with all the infrastructure, proximity to CBDs, beaches, the best schools etc etc will only increase more as the more houses there are the more exclusive these established area's become.

So everybody wins! ;)

Cheers,

Beej
 
Beej said:
The more median/average prices will fall yes, and perhaps values of houses in the areas where the majority of new homes are built. But prices of established houses in built-out established areas with all the infrastructure, proximity to CBDs, beaches, the best schools etc etc will only increase more as the more houses there are the more exclusive these established area's become.

So everybody wins! ;)

Cheers,

Beej
Click to expand...

Oh Goody,
WINNER

I like the sound of that:D
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

R
6 Ways to Make Smarter Investment Decisions
Replies
0
Views
1K
RickyY
R
bigdog
J Capital Research
Replies
1
Views
2K
greggles
greggles
Gringotts Bank
Shortening the trading time frame
Replies
14
Views
7K
Gringotts Bank
Gringotts Bank
M
  • Locked
House prices to keep rising for years
358 359 360
Replies
7K
Views
605K
robots
R
MrBurns
Australia's own Ponzi scheme: the property market
Replies
4
Views
5K
Glen48
Glen48
Top