House prices to keep falling for years

[Soft Dough]

From Crikey, aint it the truth...........

The problem is the extra 14k isn't pushing up prices by 14k, it ratchets it up by the gearing level.

the best way to make homes more affordable for first homebuyers is to allow the market to correct.

 

[CamKawa]

Oh no. Who would have thought?

Victorian house prices suffer biggest drop in 40 years

 

[kincella]

that is an amazing article...considering this article reporting from REIV
copied this post from the sister forum....

Cheaper homes, but going upNatalie Craig


HOUSES in more affordable Melbourne suburbs are appreciating faster than those in traditionally lucrative areas such as Camberwell, Toorak and Canterbury, data shows.

The Real Estate Institute of Victoria's quarterly house price figures show that 15 of Melbourne's "top 20" growth suburbs for the first three months of the year had a median price below $500,000.

Real estate industry executives say this is because of falling interest rates and first home buyers' grants.

Suburbs with the fastest growing prices included Mount Martha, up 16.3 per cent to $500,000, Keysborough, up 12.9 per cent to $390,000, Epping, up 8.1 per cent to $303,000, and Boronia up 6.9 per cent to $355,000.

However, the overall Melbourne median house price fell 3.1 per cent to $410,000.

http://www.theage.com.au/national/ch...0501-aqar.html

 

[Beej]

Oh no. Who would have thought?

Victorian house prices suffer biggest drop in 40 years

It's funny how the bears are happy to crow about REIV figures when it suits them but scream "baised/spruikers" etc when anything comes out from them on the other side of the argument!

As for the REIV data - interesting, but it's not backed up by the RP Data, APM or ABS figures. ABS has Melbourne prices down a mere -3.3% year/year from Dec 07 to Dec 08, and RP-Data/Rismark and APM both have median price GROWTH showing for Q1 2009. ABS figures for Q1 not out yet.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[MACCA350]

It's funny how the bears are happy to crow about REIV figures when it suits them but scream "baised/spruikers" etc when anything comes out from them on the other side of the argument!

As for the REIV data - interesting, but it's not backed up by the RP Data, APM or ABS figures. ABS has Melbourne prices down a mere -3.3% year/year from Dec 07 to Dec 08, and RP-Data/Rismark and APM both have median price GROWTH showing for Q1 2009. ABS figures for Q1 not out yet.

Cheers,

Beej

REIV data stated -9.7% yoy Dec 07-08, -3.1% this Quarter and -4.7% yoy March 08-09

I asked why there is such a difference between the figures in the other thread(getting confusing having two similar threads ). Do any of these reports(I know REIV don't) use the data collected by the government(ie from stamp duty) and hence 100% accurate?

cheers

 

[MrBurns]

ROFL I havent seen spin like that since Shane Warne was at his peak, prices drop despite the Govt practically giving them away, what do you reckon will happen when we stop contributing double to the FHB's ?

Drop like a stone.

Ohh Enzo you've outdone yourself this time you should be PR man for the Taliban.............

House prices falling in Melbourne
Posted 4 hours 34 minutes ago


Figures show the Melbourne median house price has fallen to $410,000. (Reuters: Mick Tsikas, file photo)

The Real Estate Institute of Victoria says a moderate fall in Melbourne house prices shows that financial assistance for first home buyers is working.

Figures for the March quarter show a 3.1 per cent decline in the Melbourne median house price, to $410,000.

The institute says the result is better than expected, given the current financial climate.

Chief executive Enzo Raimondo says it is evidence that grants for first home buyers should continue.

"They've had the desired effect they have stimulated activity in the bottom end of the market, there's no doubt about that," he said.

"We would certainly recommend that both the state and federal governments in their next budgets continue with their incentives."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/02/2558900.htm

 

[CamKawa]

If the REIV reckon prices fell 3.1% in the March quarter, which would be an Enzo massaged figure, what did they really fall by? 5,6,8%???

 

[MrBurns]

Nice result No2 in Google -

http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=...=any&cr=countryAU&as_nlo=&as_nhi=&safe=images

 

[Lancelot]

It's funny how the bears are happy to crow about REIV figures when it suits them but scream "baised/spruikers" etc when anything comes out from them on the other side of the argument!

As for the REIV data - interesting, but it's not backed up by the RP Data, APM or ABS figures. ABS has Melbourne prices down a mere -3.3% year/year from Dec 07 to Dec 08, and RP-Data/Rismark and APM both have median price GROWTH showing for Q1 2009. ABS figures for Q1 not out yet.

Cheers,

Beej

LA LA LA LA The Bears cant hear you

 

[satanoperca]

Interesting chart from REIV.
http://data1.reiv.com.au/trendchart/default.aspx

It would seem that property prices can go down and are still trending down in Victoria from peak to end of 1st qtr 09 - 12.5% fall.

Don't tell anyone, it is different here in Oz.

Just waiting for the 1st qtr 09 stats from the ABS to get a clearer picture.

Cheers

 

[kincella]

satan...that graph suits your belief....but you and I both know only the lower end of the market is selling all those fhb's....so the median has to be lower....but you go out and try to buy a property for 410k, you may have to go a long way out of the city....I bet it did not come down from 470....in fact its probably a 380k property thats increased in price...
if 10 properties sell for 400k to 500k and none for above, as they are not on the market....the median has to reflect that lower value...
know a few people looking in the 600k plus range....the props sell for up to 800 to a million

 

[satanoperca]

Kincella,

I do not believe that the graph is accurate or reflects the real life situation.

If you look at Albert Park, you will see a huge swing in median over a few years. I know that these huge swings do not accurately reflect the real price changes in the suburb. The rises and falls have been significantly less but it does show that house prices can fall, no more no less.

My observations have been that prices in the 500-850K mark have gone up in recent months as the bargains that were around at the end of 08 have all but dried up.

At the moment I still see more reasons why property should go up rather than down :

1) Very low interest rates
2) Still relatively easy lending standards
3) Low unemployment
4) Strong psychology of property always rises
5) A share market that crashed last year
6) A government that hasn't offically declared how much debt they are in after taking office over a year a go.

However, as global growth is still contracting it will only take one of the above to change and the scales will be tipped in favour of property prices falling.

Cheers

 

[kincella]

so why was the property market so bouyant when rates were over 7% and unemployment about the same ? back in 2007....
the sharemarket crashed over 50-90% depending on the mix of shares held,

we have had the GFC, now the flue scare...climate change...govts changed around the world....property crashes in the US for their own distinct reasons...the Uk and Ire....and look at our market....

pretty resilient lot with some difference to those above....oh and no one here recognised that we lead and the other big 2 follow our market....nor did they notice we peaked in 2003/2004 then flatlined until it took off again briefly in 2007... 'they' being the latest guru's or spruikers....
being a multiple prop owner I know my market...hence my sales in 2003 and 2004....when I cashed in half of them....its just been rather ordinary ever since....but thats what we come to expect....it can be ordinary for 7 years...and then 3 years of magical prices...
so far its the 5th year since the market was at it heights.....and I am looking for my next bargain...is it double or triple every 10 years ?
figure I have a 2 year window...thats all
cheers

 

[satanoperca]

Maybe one of the above has already changed.

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/6416.0?OpenDocument

It just cannot be, falling house prices are an impossibility.

I agree Kincella, everything moves in cycles and I missed a good rise in Westfarmers shares today after selling out on Friday for a nice little profit.

Cheers

PS, cannot wait to hear the range of reasons why a small drop in property prices is rather insignificant.

Robots those beers are starting to look good but it could still go either way at this moment.

 

[CamKawa]

Sorry to interrupt the high fiving and back patting session here... but back in the world of reality.

ESTABLISHED HOUSE PRICES

Quarterly Changes

• Preliminary estimates show the price index for established houses for the weighted average of the eight capital cities decreased 2.2% in the March quarter 2009.
• The main contributors to the decrease were Sydney (-2.9%), Melbourne (-2.3%), Perth (-3.6%), Brisbane (-1.1%) and Adelaide (-0.8%). These decreases were partially offset by increases in Darwin (+2.2%), Canberra (+0.5%) and Hobart (+0.1%).
• The movement in the preliminary established house price index between September and December quarters 2008 has been revised from an estimated decrease of 0.8% to an estimated decrease of 1.2%.

Established house prices, Quarterly % change - March quarter 2009

 

[singlefished]

PS, cannot wait to hear the range of reasons why a small drop in property prices is rather insignificant.

Already been covered in the other thread...

 

[kincella]

oh dear...you are quibling about less than 1%.....its those median figures that are skewing things up....meanwhile the stocks have lost between 50-90% and oh so volatile....
plenty of caves for the bears to hibernate in...wonder what prices caves are going for ?

 

[satanoperca]

...wonder what prices caves are going for ?

Don't know but home safes sales are on the increase.

50-90% falls on the sharemarket - must have been some pretty crappy stocks. How about the stella run in the last few months on the ASX.

The bulls can argue which ever way they won't but it seems that we are not different here to the rest of the world, prices are falling.

Cheers

 

[singlefished]

oh dear...you are quibling about less than 1%.....its those median figures that are skewing things up....meanwhile the stocks have lost between 50-90% and oh so volatile....
plenty of caves for the bears to hibernate in...wonder what prices caves are going for ?

It's already been discussed ad nauseum that the stock market is a completely different beast from the property market and they cannot be directly compared.

I fail to see why you keep bringing it up. Your bias towards property has meant you've missed out on one of the best bear market rallies in recent times.

You need to be a bit more diversified with your investment outlook so it will offset some of the property market losses currently going on in the market.

 

[gfresh]

ABS (today), APM, and REIV figures in stark contrast to RPData shonky figures

Again, as pointed out a couple of pages back, still very sus on RPdata figures presented at any time.