Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

House prices to keep falling for years

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chops_a_must said:
Perth isn't holding up mate.

It's tanking seriously badly. Setting downside records.
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I have family members invovlved in a sizeable land development in Perth and they recently told me prices where about 20pc off there peak - prices 20pc down for developers is still big $$ as the Beejs and Robis of this world have talked it up for for so long. Their land parcels wont be ready for market for over a year anyways.

Perth imho still has plenty of room to tumble as the mining Industry continues its implosion. But my developer relatives disagree with my assesment :)
 
numbercruncher said:
I have family members involved in a sizeable land development in Perth and they recently told me prices where about 20pc off there peak - prices 20pc down for developers is still big $$ as the Beejs and Robis of this world have talked it up for for so long. Their land parcels wont be ready for market for over a year anyways.

Perth imho still has plenty of room to tumble as the mining Industry continues its implosion. But my developer relatives disagree with my assesment :)
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Can you please stop mis-representing my views? I've NEVER "talked up" Perth property thanks - if that's where all you bears live then I can understand your negativity towards the market. BUT if you are using the trends in such a relatively small market that is currently out of whack with it's typical values relative to the major capital cities, then I can understand why your views are so negative and also so wrong about the broader national market outlook. I mean FFS there was a month there a year or so ago when the median house in Perth cost more than in Sydney!!

As for 20% off the peak - let's wait and see that reflected in the city median stats and I might believe you. And regardless, how much did Perth property appreciate over a relatively short time though 2007?? About 20% wasn't it?? (http://reiwa.com/res/res-salesgraph-display.cfm).

The major markets, Ie Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, have not appreciated anywhere near as much as Perth in that last period, so therefore it is completely wrong to try and gauge the national market based purely on what might or might not be happening out west.... I can see now that is where you are coming from NC and that is why you will be proven wrong with most of the alarmist rubbish you spout here.

Beej
 
Sorry Beej - we just use Beej and Robi as generic terms for permabulls, nothing personal.


As for 20% off the peak - let's wait and see that reflected in the city median stats and I might believe you. And regardless, how much did Perth property appreciate over a relatively short time though 2007?? About 20% wasn't it??
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They are Land developers, no buildings - I dont think land shows in the common stats ? Just houses and units ?

Yes Perth went mental. Unsustainably so ....
 
Robi becareful there will be fights for your job soon !


VICTORIAN builders are reporting that clients are pulling out of new home projects as the global credit squeeze bites, a survey shows.

The Masters Builders Association has identified that more than half their clients - 52 per cent - have pulled out of projects in the last three months citing financing problems as the biggest issue.

Builders also said they were experiencing increased cost of servicing debt (21 per cent) and reduced access to credit (17 per cent).
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http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24801080-661,00.html
 
By early Jan I shall have enough for a deposit :) The area I'm looking there are quite a few nice places advertised at under $300K. I wont be buying soon though, unless of course the price is right. Then hope to lock in interest rates for as long as I can as soon as it gets lower than 5% :)

Government boost fails to attract buyers
http://www.news.com.au/business/money/story/0,28323,24800841-5013951,00.html

INTEREST rate cuts and the increase to the first-home buyers grant appear to have failed to restore confidence to the property market with auction clearance rates dropping sharply over the month.

The slide was most pronounced in Melbourne, which recorded its worst monthly clearance rate since January 2006, The Australian reported.

The November clearance rate in Melbourne was down five percentage points on the previous month, and was 22 points lower than the figure recorded for November last year.

Australian Property Monitors senior economist Liam O'Hara said the market remained "lacklustre".

"The market never really looked like it was going to improve. There were some seasonal factors that led to a small spike in weekly rates during the month but these were due to seasonal factors," he said. "It's very lacklustre and people are still quite fearful (of taking on) debt."

Brisbane recorded its worst monthly figures since January 2005. The clearance rate of 23 per cent was six points lower than the figure recorded for October and 33 points lower than November 2007.

In Adelaide, the clearance rate crashed a further 11 points from October to 37 per cent - 33 points lower than November last year, and the city's worst result since the turn of the century.

Mr O'Hara said the market needed to see significant improvements before mid-2009 - when the Rudd Government's first-home buyers grant is due to be reduced - if there was to be any hope of a revival next year.

"That's really where the point of no-return is," he said.
 
gav said:
"That's really where the point of no-return is," he said.
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:xmaswave Point of no return eh? Sounds kind of dramatic, but I like it... The realestate industry talk of a turnaround in early 09 is more simply hope than too much solid evidence.

End of 1st quarter will be setting the tone I think for the remainder of 2009 :bricks1: Already dinner party conversation is on whether people think they may keep their job next year. Much different to 3 months ago, and the 3 months before that what people's concerns were. 6 months ago it was "some American thing", and effected us here "only for those who gambled on the sharemarket".
 
Pommie banks wake up and smell the coffee:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...rclays-chief-executive-John-Varley-warns.html

House prices to crash 30 per cent, Barclays chief executive John Varley warns
House prices will crash a further 15 per cent next year, the boss of high street bank Barclays has admitted.

By Myra Butterworth, Personal Finance Correspondent
Last Updated: 8:52AM GMT 15 Dec 2008

John Varley of Barclays Photo: Daniel Jones
In a remarkably candid interview, John Varley, the group chief executive of Barclays, warned that Britain is only mid way through the house price slump - meaning the total fall could be as much as 30 per cent.
He described as "madness" the previous lending policies' of banks, in which 100 per cent mortgages and beyond were approved..........
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CamKawa said:
Or it's $825 for a double. I was thinking Beej and robots could go halves.
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and use that equity in your house to pay for the ticket
Living like a RE gurus, living off equity and capitalise interest

you cant call yourself a RE investor until you do those things :D
 
The banks having a go now.. ANZ tipping up to a 5% fall in 2009:

http://www.afr.com/home/viewer.aspx...ion=property&title=Dismal+outlook+for+housing

AMZ maintains a positive long-term outlook for Australian house prices based on significant rate cuts, generous grants, an undersupply of housing and tight rental markets.

However, it has adjusted its 2009 forecast, predicting flat to negative prices, with falls of up to 5 per cent possible.

"With unemployment rising, mortgage defaults will edge higher in 2009, increasing the incidence of forced home sales," ANZ head of property and financial research Paul Eraddick said.

"In addition, tightening credit conditions could increasingly restrict actual housing demand in the year ahead. Unlike some commentators we do not. expect a collapse and house prices will recover quickly once the current economic uncertainty has passed."
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Pretty funny about the supply argument, all those who seem to be making it will happily gloss over the fact that London had a pretty hefty supply shortage too which didn't seem to protect them one bit!
 
sinner said:
Pretty funny about the supply argument, all those who seem to be making it will happily gloss over the fact that London had a pretty hefty supply shortage too which didn't seem to protect them one bit!
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Yes - just as it is pretty funny that those who believe we are in big falls gloss over the fact that the GLOBAL credit crisis occurred and effected everywhere at the same time, and yet strangely house prices in Australia have fallen hardly at all over the 12-18 month period during which the UK and US are off 15% and 20% respectively (in terms of average falls anyway).

So let me ask the property bears this - if the supply/demand argument is bogus, why HAVEN'T Oz prices fallen in line long ago with the UK and US?? ;)

Beej
 
Beej said:
Yes - just as it is pretty funny that those who believe we are in big falls gloss over the fact that the GLOBAL credit crisis occurred and effected everywhere at the same time
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It really didn't hey.

You got a broad based commodities chart there champ?
 
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