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House prices to keep falling for years

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I predict house prices to be flat next week.

I base this on my wry observation that the rival ASF "House prices to keep falling for years" and "House prices to keep rising for years" threads are both extremely popular and coincidentally neck and neck atm.

:)

Good evening all.
 
Hehe...

Oops! Caught the thread napping there for a mo'. Slipping behind the rising flotsam...

Giddyup there, lil' doggie!

:horse:
 
13,000 customers eh..

http://www.theage.com.au/national/on-the-brink-of-collapse-20081213-6xzw.html?page=1

Older article:
http://www.businessday.com.au/business/the-imperfect-storm-20081029-5at4.html

Leveraging into the stock market via your home is a fantastic idea... :eek:

http://business.theage.com.au/busin...cents-to-the-bottom-20081212-6xm1.html?page=2

"Hi Michael: We are Storm Financial customers and after reading your articles are very worried. Without much correspondence from our Brisbane office we have been kept in the dark and are concerned about losing our house. If you were in our shoes what would be the best course of action? We would appreciate some advice.

"We have been margin called by Colonial and hence have a $57,000 shortfall. We now have a $300,000 mortgage against our house with ANZ, which we had previously owned. Any sort of guidance would be helpful as we are lost to know what to do.

Regards,
Click to expand...
 
Beej said:
Bogus stat - what about their superannuation savings?? ;)

Beej
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Are these even counted as Savings in official stats? If they are, our savings rates are so much worse than reported it isn't funny, as they really aren't accessible at all.


And Gfresh... lol. Idiots get what they deserve sometimes. Sucked in.
 
chops_a_must said:
Are these even counted as Savings in official stats? If they are, our savings rates are so much worse than reported it isn't funny, as they really aren't accessible at all.


And Gfresh... lol. Idiots get what they deserve sometimes. Sucked in.
Click to expand...

No super is not counted in so called "national savings" stats - the reason I think is most countries do not have a super scheme anywhere near as comprehensive, universal or generous in terms of it's tax treatment as ours, so super is left out of ours to enable "apples to apples" comparisons. But it sort of defeats the point leaving it out given the arguments made by most about our national savings rate.

In terms of accessibility etc, super is in fact the "best" form of saving, for the very fact it is NOT accessible until retirement, and in the meantime the money is invested in the economy somewhere. Economically why else do you think savings matter? They only matter in terms of having money available for productive investment, and in terms of individuals having the ability to save for retirement.

Beej
 
Beej said:
Economically why else do you think savings matter? They only matter in terms of having money available for productive investment, and in terms of individuals having the ability to save for retirement.

Beej
Click to expand...
No, I disagree, savings are vital for other essential things. Which is exactly why super should not be treated as savings. Because savings would indicate an ability to use cash or liquid assets to service ongoing requirements. Super is not this.


Also, very interesting article on 9 Perth tonight about a property investor going belly up after quitting his job to manage his investments full time 5 years ago... and likely needing to sell his own home as a result. But no ability at all to offload properties.
 
Hi everyone out there,

Nice reading everyone's thoughts, some more jubilant, others like me verging on the cautious and careful!

There is a good article from Intelligence Investor:

http://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/articles/262/2009-Year-of-the-value-trap-.cfm?articleID=832020

Just a 1 line update from the Perth housing market, particularly with regards to the AUD$550,000 to AUD$1.2 million segment.

Those who are owning homes in the AUD$1 million bracket are selling in droves in areas like Alfred Cove, Applecross, etc.

But those are in the AUD$500,000 to AUD$650,000 bracket seems to be pulling back in non mortgage belt owner occupier areas like Bateman & Bullcreek. These are owners who probably know they won't get top dollar and am making a conscious decision to wait. Those who ARE selling, some are still asking top dollar prices.

I remember attending one of Shane Oliver's evening forum (if I am not mistaken) in Perth where he uses a Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue of Holfstra University, where he outlines the stock market move as:

  1. Take off
  2. First sell off
  3. Bear Trap
  4. Media Attention
  5. Public Enthusiasm:)
  6. GREEDDelusion
  7. New Paradigm
  8. DENIAL :banghead:
  9. Return to Normal
  10. Fear :mad:
  11. CAPITULATION:banghead:

While this thread is about housing/real estate, would anyone like to venture a guess where we are in the stock market boom/.bust ladder according to this theory???? (assuming some of the phases being described have actually happened right here in Australia?).

And if one of our contributors is correct, that is, property market usually lags stock market by 6-12 months (or some say, 18 months), we might still have a few months to go for the downward real estate choo-choo train!

In the short term, I think the porperty might even have a dead cat small rebound (It's just my personal view). Finishing the note on a positive note, brick and mortar still holds great potential for wealth creation.

Have a great week everyone.
 
agathos said:
But those are in the AUD$500,000 to AUD$650,000 bracket seems to be pulling back in non mortgage belt owner occupier areas like Bateman & Bullcreek. These are owners who probably know they won't get top dollar and am making a conscious decision to wait. Those who ARE selling, some are still asking top dollar prices.
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I think you'll find that's because it's a well established area, where a lot of owners have been there since the late 70s and 80s, looking towards retirement, so they have little need to, or wish to sell.

You look on the same latitude further west of the freeway, it is a completely different story. Seemingly enormous volumes through Murdoch, Winthrop, North Lake, Etc. as a larger percentage of these are rentals for Murdoch uni, and higher specuvestor territory.

Doesn't mean the value in Bullcreek and Bateman has changed, just means less are prepared to sell there. But you'd be stupid to buy the equivalent there obviously, as you are closer to Freo, the train station, and would have better occupancy west in Winthrop et al.
 
What's your take, Chops_a_must on the properties west of Winthrop?

Does it mean these areas (west of Winthrop) are undergoing higher selling volumes in today's economical environment, due to higher specuvestors involvement?

Does that mean the properties west of Winthrop will appreciate faster?

I see Willagee, (which is about 4.7 kilometer from Fremantle) which was booming out of proportion before the bust, reverting back to realistic prices at the moment (You can get something for high 400 K-ish for a 700 plus sqm with a rennovated home, when previously 5 months ago, everyone tries to sell an old unit for high 500K ish).

Winthrop seems to have dropped in prices too. Friend bought a 2 storey unit early 2007 for 990,000 when the going price was 1.2 million. (That was 12 months ago).

U seem to have a negative view on Bateman, any views u can share with me? I would love to hear them out to gain a different perspective.

Appreciate your views.
 
Nothing wrong with Bateman.

And Winthrop is included in my west of Bullcreek/ Bateman micro analysis.

Willagee was redeveloped extensively over the last 10 years, so it is much more difficult to analyse.

My thoughts would be, why buy in Bullcreek and Bateman when you may be able to get the equivalent for less in Winthrop and Kardinya?

If I had unlimited money, I would be looking at developable land in Beaconsfield and certain parts of Hamilton Hill, even Spearwood, as that will eventually be the next areas to go well. Great location, just a lot of riff raff, but with huge potential.

But we also don't know what is going to happen with the Roe extension. Which means a lot of these southern suburbs are going to have strange price moves I would say, and may not be that great depending...

Generally, the closer to Freo, the better the potential IMO. It also comes with much better public transport service.


And yes, just from observation, Winthrop, Kardinya, North Lake... anything in this area is having massive supply dumped on the market, because they are generally specuvestments.
 
My mum is putting her house (Busselton 80 meters from ocean) on
the market next week 850K.

be interesting to see how she goes....i reckon Perth will hold up for a
while as all those sacked miners will have nice redundencys and hopefully
some savings and high equity in there homes...thinking they didn't spend
it all on European holidays and over priced 4WD's.
 
Thanks, chops_a_must for your sharing.
I totally agree on Beaconsfield and Hami Hill as good prospects for investment due to it's PROXIMITY to Freo.

However, I am buying the unit for pesonal dwelling, as compared to investment purposes (of course, any appreciation in later years would be a good topping to the cake).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

As for the Busselton property scene, along Geographe Bay which is situated at Layman Road, during my travel to the country side as part of my regular southwestern runs, I have seen 6 properties, back to back on sale. These are purely next street to the water front properties and a local told me that they are selling because everyone was attracted by the water front prospects previously, but now that they have erected these properties, they now can't stand the smell of the seasonal algae that populates the waters along Geographe Bay at certain points of the year!!!!!!!

Another version of the local story - another local told me that these 6 properties are all developed by the same company and they need to off load them for a profit. I can't see that happening right now though!

Busselton is a scenic spot and has loads of tourism potential. Troy Buswell is doing all he can to prop up the plans to repair the Busselton Jetty as it is a CENTRAL icon to local tourism activities.

All the best to your mom's sale. Keep us posted.

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Wouldn't bother with a unit that isn't far away from one of the centres Agathos... Just my :2twocents:2twocents
 
chops_a_must said:
Perth isn't holding up mate.

It's tanking seriously badly. Setting downside records.
Click to expand...



I have family members invovlved in a sizeable land development in Perth and they recently told me prices where about 20pc off there peak - prices 20pc down for developers is still big $$ as the Beejs and Robis of this world have talked it up for for so long. Their land parcels wont be ready for market for over a year anyways.

Perth imho still has plenty of room to tumble as the mining Industry continues its implosion. But my developer relatives disagree with my assesment :)
 
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