House prices to keep falling for years

[robots]

hello,

yes not wrong about the drivel tonnes of it in this thread,

didnt realise a thread existed named "bludgers", should of posted there

great point Beej, 12-18mths ago we were all doomed on 10+ interest rates, now the money renters are looking at hopefully 5-6% in the near future, awesome

just going with the flow man

thankyou
robots

 

[MR.]

I'm sure i heard something on the news today about real estate "for sale" listings
going up significantly?...anyway all i could find was this....from the courier mail.

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24685775-952,00.html

"He said the total number listed in Queensland and Brisbane had increased this week, highlighting renewed vendor confidence."

Either that or vendors just want out!

While prices have fallen, some analysts claim a dearth of upmarket properties changing hands has skewed statistics.

True, but there is no lack of supply in up market properties, just a lack of "SALES". It just means buyer and seller here can't even meet.
So what are they worth?

"Median house prices are likely to continue to fall during much of 2008-09, due mainly to the compositional change of the sales made rather than actual losses made by vendors on resale," Mr Matusik said.

Lucky, so my grandfather will make a profit on his home he bought in 1948!

 

[CamKawa]

I can't believe that the press are publishing stories like this. They are obviously out of touch with the fundamentals. Where are all the immigrants?
:

Mansions go begging as wealthy dump luxury homes

:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi:bananasmi

 

[Aussiejeff]

What a bleeding rediculous article! Harvey Norman who based their entire business model and growth on cheap credit for the masses!

Where does this guy get off! I hope they get their ****ing comeuppance!

Gerry says:

"Society might have been better off without them but we are supposed to look after the disadvantaged and so we do it. But it doesn't help the society."

Mr Harvey, the founder of the Harvey Norman retail chain, said the group had given money to charities, adding: "At the end of the day, the more quality individuals you develop in the community, the better off the community should be."

I'm pretty sure Herr Hitler had similar affection for the disadvantaged of the Third Reich. He, too, felt the Wunderkind would be "better off without them".

I'm surprised Herr Norman didn't offer the traditional salute after spruiking this Fascist drivel.

Isn't the Nazi Party banned in Australia?

Off topic I know, but it deserves a response.

I hope HVN go bust....

For Herr Norman's sake.

 

[numbercruncher]

If the media run with this Herr Norman could do endless damage to his little cartel hey !?

 

[numbercruncher]

Yes seems Herr Norman is atracting himslf some condemnation ...

subject is probably worthy of a thread hey !

HIGH-profile Melbourne youth worker Les Twentyman has attacked retail billionaire Gerry Harvey for saying donating to charity is "just wasted".

Mr Harvey has been quoted in a new book as saying there's "no good reason" to give to charity and, for the community to be better off, it needed more "quality individuals".

His comments, in the book Master CEOs, were criticised on talkback radio on Friday and Mr Twentyman also dismissed them as "outrageous".

He said they "infuriated" him because most people ended up homeless through economic difficulties that were often no fault of their own.

"These comments are very concerning and un-Australian, in the lead-up to Christmas, is this what the top end of town thinks about homelessness?" Mr Twentyman said

http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,24688165-5003402,00.html

 

[Mofra]

its really no different to having asthma or a crook leg or knee

you just get on with living life man and enjoying the planet

You've obviously been trolling for replies most of this thread, but the above post is plain embarrassing for any thinking human being.

Apologies for off topic post

 

[Mofra]

If the media run with this Herr Norman could do endless damage to his little cartel hey !?

Given his use of buy now, pay later credit (unsecured credit which is far worse than a standard credit card), I don't think Harvey's lack of moral fortitude should come as a surprise to too many. I'd go as far to describe his finance terms as about as "rigorously tested" as some of the US NINJA loans that started the sub prime mess in the first place.

His business model isn't far removed from a payday lender opening a shop next to housing commission flats.

 

[MrBurns]

Given his use of buy now, pay later credit (unsecured credit which is far worse than a standard credit card), I don't think Harvey's lack of moral fortitude should come as a surprise to too many. I'd go as far to describe his finance terms as about as "rigorously tested" as some of the US NINJA loans that started the sub prime mess in the first place.

His business model isn't far removed from a payday lender opening a shop next to housing commission flats.

Gerry Harvey also said that giving to charity was just encouraging people who contribute nothing to society.
Some people have the ability to make money but they really haven't got a normal human brain, he's one of them.

 

[ROE]

I'd delete this and the exchange that has followed, but you have made yourself look pretty silly so it's probably better that it stays.

"Never argue with a fool. People might not know the difference."

 

[ROE]

Gerry says:

"Society might have been better off without them but we are supposed to look after the disadvantaged and so we do it. But it doesn't help the society."

Mr Harvey, the founder of the Harvey Norman retail chain, said the group had given money to charities, adding: "At the end of the day, the more quality individuals you develop in the community, the better off the community should be."

I'm pretty sure Herr Hitler had similar affection for the disadvantaged of the Third Reich. He, too, felt the Wunderkind would be "better off without them".

I'm surprised Herr Norman didn't offer the traditional salute after spruiking this Fascist drivel.

Isn't the Nazi Party banned in Australia?

Off topic I know, but it deserves a response.

I hope HVN go bust....

For Herr Norman's sake.

the first step for that is buy stuff from beloved WOW power house, JB and Fantastic Furniture holding.

 

[Beej]

Todays auction results for Sydney here: http://www.homepriceguide.com.au/saturday_auction_results/sydney_domain.pdf

Not too bad ~50% clearance rate on a large number of properties being auctioned (139 sold out of 253 + 36 withdrawn). Certainly no indictaions of a great price crash still. if anything prices seem quite stable, and in fact at 2 auctions I attended today some very good prices relative to the market expectation were achieved.

My feeling is the lower interest rates are improving buyer sentiment, and may well put a floor under the current market in Sydney at least - (again I think SEQ/Perth etc are about 1-2 years behind the current Sydney cycle).

Certainly not anything close to boom time conditions, which I don't expect to come back until we get out the other side of the current global economic malaise. However, I still reckon that in Sydney, price falls are about done, and buyers who have been on the sidelines are coming back into the market. We shall see if I am right when the official stats are all released for this quarter. In terms of sales, this quarter is just about done anyway - only 1-2 weeks left really to sell places before the xmas holiday period starts to set in.

PS: A note to all - remember if you REALLY want to understand what is happening in your local R/E market at any time you need to get out there ON THE GROUND and see what exactly is selling, for how much, who is buying, and what is not selling and why.

Cheers,

Beej

 

[numbercruncher]

PS: A note to all - remember if you REALLY want to understand what is happening in your local R/E market at any time you need to get out there ON THE GROUND and see what exactly is selling, for how much, who is buying, and what is not selling and why.

Thats kinda like if you REALLY want to know what the weather is like you need to go feel it on your skin instead of listen to the weather report ?

 

[Beej]

Thats kinda like if you REALLY want to know what the weather is like you need to go feel it on your skin instead of listen to the weather report ?

Ummmm - no. If you don't understand my point then perhaps you have never bought or sold real estate, and don't really understand how the R/E market works, or how to guage it. It's more complex than just the median stats, and stock market type analysis doesn't give you the whole/correct picture is all I am saying. Every area, market, individual property is different and often this generates surprising results.

PS: I say this because you may miss out on that bargain unless you are ready and find it when it comes up! Opportunity abounds right now

Beej

 

[numbercruncher]

Yes opportunity abounds ! cease the moment ......

 

[CamKawa]

A quite day for property in the media today, maybe it's not that exiting for punters to read they are getting poorer by the day?

 

[YChromozome]

A quite day for property in the media today, maybe it's not that exiting for punters to read they are getting poorer by the day?

Yesterday was another bumper day here. The local newsagent had :

 

[Beej]

A quite day for property in the media today, maybe it's not that exiting for punters to read they are getting poorer by the day?

Umm well not on commecial TV in Sydney. CH 7 news ran a promoted headline 6pm news story about how the Sydney auction results this weekend showed a reasonably robust market, and featured an auction of a run down inner city terrace that had 20 registered bidders and sold for $150k above it's reserve! Hardly a quiet media day. The owner of that sold property hardly got poorer today now did they? Keep dreaming.......

Beej

 

[numbercruncher]

Link to that article Beej ? How much did this run down unit sell for ?

Do you work in the RE industry Bej ?

 

[Beej]

PS - I want address one of the "great property price crash" arguments that keeps coming up related to tracking national median prices, and predicting that house prices must fall as the median is too far above the "long term average", should be N x average wages, and the median cannot possibly grow into the future at a rate greater than wage growth etc etc etc. This came up a lot on the "ourfinanceblogs" thread references a couple of pages back as well.

The part of this argument that seems to hold the greatest credibility is the point that MEDIAN prices cannot possibly continue to accelerate at a rate greater than average wage growth. Many of the bearish posters here see this as a "fundamental" that validates beyond argument their view that there is a major correction due.

There are two flaws with this particular statistic/view:

1) The use of average full time WAGES as the "multiple" by which house price norms are predicted. This is incorrect and leads to flawed analysis. Housing is important (culturally) to many/most Australians, and as such a significant proportion of our incomes (at all levels) will be devoted to housing - either through FHB purchase, sevicing mortgages, or funding renovations/improvements to our homes. As such, what matters to most people, and what defines AFFORDABILITY is AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD DISPOSABLE INCOME, NOT INCLUDING HOUSING COSTS. If you look at this stat, you will find a much closer correlation to historic price growth - eg it accounts for the change from 1 to 2 income households, and the shift from a high to a low inflation/low interest rate environment. It also accounts for the ability as average people become wealthier in real terms to devote a greater proportion of TOTAL income to housing while still having plenty of money for other lifestyle needs/wants, compared to past times in history. Ie it accounts for improved real wages and higher economic productivity, and the flow on effect of this into house price growth (and housing stock improvement - which is one of the major sources of improved living standards over time).

2) There are many ways that the MEDIAN price might fall - only one is an across the board fall in prices. The MAIN may that the median growth will slow going forward however is more likely to be through INCREASED SUPPLY OF LOW COST HOUSING. We may well have the situation in the future where the median price to wage multiple is significantly lower than it is now, yet the prices of all CURRENTLY EXISITING houses have contiued to increase at a rate well above average wage growth. This will continue to confound all the housing market bears. But this could happen because a large amount of well located low cost new property has been built and sold, thus shifting the median price down.

Cheers,

Beej