House prices to keep falling for years

[Glen48]

92% chance the RBA will drop rates another 1% in December, which I agree they will do and we may see the same for a few months until it hits .0001%
You have to ask you self why are the RBA dropping the rate so much if there is no problem.
Wonder were the house boomers get their info from to predict prices to keep going?
One day we can look back and say I lived through that depression.

 

[MrBurns]

Wont be long before all the prostitutes and crack *****s flood the area again.

Still had that feeling I was going to catch a disease just by walking down the street the last time I was there.

St Kilda's great for employment though, I saw an ad for a post graduate in hosing vomit from the front of pizza shops.

A guy with a doctorate in removing condoms from childrens playgrounds and hosing the vomit got the job though, I'd like to describe him but there were no visible facial features it was all face piercings, rusty too errrrk !

St Kilda the land of opportunity !

 

[nunthewiser]

personally dont mind STkilda .its got a vibe and buzz unlike many other places

 

[MrBurns]

personally dont mind STkilda .its got a vibe and buzz unlike many other places

Cockroaches

 

[chops_a_must]

personally dont mind STkilda .its got a vibe and buzz unlike many other places

That's true.

Although the buzz you feel there is likely to be someone trying to slip a vibrator into somewhere it isn't meant to go.

I do really like catching a good gig at the POW though. But geez... when the wind gets up there, it's so so much colder than the wharfs in Freo in winter.

 

[nunthewiser]

That's true.

Although the buzz you feel there is likely to be someone trying to slip a vibrator into somewhere it isn't meant to go.

I do really like catching a good gig at the POW though. But geez... when the wind gets up there, it's so so much colder than the wharfs in Freo in winter.

yep , give the baterry toys a miss as always onya guard out there at night .

BUT i got to see the pogues out there many years back when i lived out that way and always brings a twinkle to my eye thinking about the place

 

[YChromozome]

good stuff today brothers, what a fantastic day

Was it ever. The All Ords closed down to 3332.6. The significance of this is we have just plunged through the 50%. From the peak of the market on the 1st November 2007, the Australian Stock Market has now fallen 51.4%.

Boomers must be licking their wounds. All those retirement savings just evaporating. Hey, good thing Robots, that they all have four investment properties each on 100% LVR. They have something to cling onto before they start to tank too.

 

[robots]

hello,

thanks for reporting those fine numbers, gee the shonk exchange not travelling to well chromo,

but what do you expect, really? its all made up stuff, fairlyland and the data from the ABS regarding wealth of home-owners in comparison to specuvestor renters will be very very interesting,

thankyou
robots

 

[Mofra]

Boomers must be licking their wounds. All those retirement savings just evaporating. Hey, good thing Robots, that they all have four investment properties each on 100% LVR. They have something to cling onto before they start to tank too.

Gotta love the assumptions... yep everyone is geared to 100%

 

[cuttlefish]

You can't live in dollars and you can't eat them.

 

[cuttlefish]

Thats not to say house prices won't fall - I think significant price falls are pretty likely unless inflation comes out of the can - but unencumbered property in the right location is always in demand for accomodation - and thus probably always tradeable for food, labour or equivalent goods.

Credit issues aside as a shorter term issue, longer term the only real risk to property is the rule of law being eroded or law being changed ... like when the communists decided to seize property, or you lived in a country that got invaded by another one and suddenly your laws weren't really that important.

 

[Julia]

Gotta love the assumptions... yep everyone is geared to 100%

Yep, and likewise all the Boomers were silly enough not to move to cash when the market started to fall. Another baseless assumption.
Generalisations like that are just so silly.

 

[chops_a_must]

Yep, and likewise all the Boomers were silly enough not to move to cash when the market started to fall. Another baseless assumption.
Generalisations like that are just so silly.

And that Gen Y ers with their astonishing mortgage take up percentage of 5% have caused this credit mess. I've actually seen that written on another forum.

Mofra... do you happen to be a fan of Maynard G. Krebs?

 

[Naked shorts]

Run-down suburbs on the rise
Tony John is willing to bet $1 billion that the run-down suburb of Buranda, in Brisbane's south, is the next New Farm. The Brisbane architect-developer has a scheme for a massive residential, retail and commercial project that can only be called immensely ambitious. He is willing to bet that Brisbane people will be willing to pay about $500,000 for an entry-level one-bedroom apartment measuring less than 50sqm. Property analyst Michael Matusik agrees, saying Brisbane's evolution means people will pay half a million dollars to live in tiny units in once-forgotten parts of town. He says Buranda is the ideal place for the small units to work because they will appeal to investors and first home buyers who will see it as the start of an urban renewal precinct and an opportunity to get in on the ground floor.

I live at the neighboring suburb (Dutton Park), and I can confirm that Buranda is a hole. things are cleaning up a bit, I remember last year every second time i would go their for lunch I would see a cop car. Now not so much (Im thinking the cracking down has worked). I wouldnt live there, but it doest have some things going for it,

They have a hospital (which is under going expansion)
Its right next to the M1 (very easy to make your way down the coast, or get into the city).
Its within walking distance to UQ
Its on a main road that goes direct to South Bank, or west end.
It has 2 shopping centres, (coco's and coles(or maybe its woolworths)).
Roads near by are under going expansion
Its going to be on the entrance to one of the tunnels.
It has a train stations on either side.
It has a busway station
McDonalds, Subway etc


Considering all this, I would never pay $500,000 for a unit there. 10years? maybe

 

[singlefished]

Here's an extract from Michael Pascoes column on yahoo finance....

I checked his numbers - Sydders@30493 and Brissy(incl GC & SC)@33294 so not too different this week. This will include thousands of under contracts and the perpetual "Another one SOLD by Iman Rse!" listings that've been there for the last 6 months ~ but still, quite a large number on the market.

Where would the Author have located the quantity of listed properties from previous years ~ their own research or is there somewhere this can be found on the net?

The article in full is actually a discussion on real estate v's shares, also makes for interesting reading if you are so inclined....

http://au.pfinance.yahoo.com/b/michael-pascoe/111/real-estate-vs-bank-shares

On the residential real estate investment side, the clearest thing I've read in ages about the market outlook was in last weekend's Sun Herald, a column by Louis Christopher, the head of property research at Adviser Edge.

It's so good I won't try to paraphrase it, I'll just reprint what Louis submitted to the paper (but please read it carefully - he's not predicting there's going to be a recession and he sometimes writes with his tongue in his cheek):





I have been reading with interest how some of the more "optimistic" economists and analysts believe there will not be any substantial housing price declines because this country is experiencing a shortage of available property. This opinion has gone all the way to the very top with our Federal Treasurer stating the same belief.

Often, they state that our rising population will aggravate the current shortage and so the theory goes, we won't have a house price crash.
The facts are that this week, the online real estate listings portal Domain.com.au had over 33,000 property listings within the greater metropolitan Sydney region. This compares starkly with the number of listed properties back in November 2005 when the count was just 12,000 listings.

Far from a shortage, the Sydney market is actually flooded with properties for sale. Mind you, spare a thought for south-east Queensland, which currently has the same amount of listings, yet a population size of just 60% of Sydney. But of course, there must be a shortage there as well, right?

It truly is staggering the lengths some so-called "economists/analysts" will go to try to talk the property market up. We even had one economist last week suggest affordability won't improve despite house price declines because of the shortage!

The house price declines that Sydney and the rest of the country is now experiencing are themselves the ultimate indicator that we have too much available property given the current level of demand. On the positive, existing price declines means affordability has already improved.

There is also now much choice to be had for the home buyer. There is no shortage of property and there isn't likely to be for some time, especially if we enter into a recession.

The truth of the matter is that if we go into a recession, it won't matter if we have a population increase. Even as the population grows, if people don't have jobs, they can't go out and buy a house. And those that lose their job will be forced to sell up, thereby adding to supply. Would-be buyers will be cautious and conservative in their property selection. Young people will stay with their folks. They won't go out and rent or buy a home. Families will move in together. People will be forced to accept the economic reality and lower their standard of living.

This is what happens in a recession.

That all said, we haven't entered recession yet and it is clear the Rudd Government and the Reserve Bank of Australia are doing all they can to prevent us joining the global house price crash. Let's hope every tax payer's cent is worth it. After all affordability will no doubt improve if house prices rise!

Either way, all real estate participants are better served by more objective and analysis and information and not spruiking from some industry commentators that should know better. Real estate is a great asset and can be a greater asset still if this principle is adopted across the entire industry.

 

[sinner]

Housing Industry Association (HIA) figures show a big jump in new home enquiries since the Federal Government tripled the First Home Owner Grant.

The HIA says $21,000 grant for new homes has led to a doubling in the number of inquiries.

The association expects around 15,000 new homes will be built as a result of the increased grant.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/11/21/2426333.htm

 

[robots]

hello,

hey hey man, the weekend coming on

http://business.theage.com.au/business/retail-king-slams-nohoper-charity-20081120-6cwj.html

bang this in here as plenty here supporting the handout crew(s), go Gerry you spot on brother and with aussie unemployment figures been so low its amazing people have the gall to ask "got any spare change"

yeah right, i get up and go to work so I can give it to you to bludge around all day being a professional no-hoper,

thankyou
robots

 

[Scuba]

***edited***...stacked in US $100 bills would be 9 million miles high and end to end out of the universe.
***edited***

Sorry Explod,
Nine million miles < %10 of distance to (our) sun.... Next closest sun is (Andromeda) 4.3 Years @ C (from the famous equation) where our sun is approximately 8 minutes distance at that speed......
Other than that I've really enjoyed your posts
Regards,
Dave
(Trolling on a Friday....)
\:

 

[sinner]

hello,

hey hey man, the weekend coming on

http://business.theage.com.au/business/retail-king-slams-nohoper-charity-20081120-6cwj.html

bang this in here as plenty here supporting the handout crew(s), go Gerry you spot on brother and with aussie unemployment figures been so low its amazing people have the gall to ask "got any spare change"

yeah right, i get up and go to work so I can give it to you to bludge around all day being a professional no-hoper,

thankyou
robots

What a bleeding rediculous article! Harvey Norman who based their entire business model and growth on cheap credit for the masses!

Where does this guy get off! I hope they get their ****ing comeuppance!

 

[Scuba]

***edited*** its amazing people have the gall to ask "got any spare change"

yeah right, i get up and go to work so I can give it to you to bludge around all day being a professional no-hoper,

thankyou
robots

When I was living and working in London it was reported that one of the "beggars" around Kings Cross/ Euston was observed (Monday to Friday) "at the end of the day" catching the tube to a south London station where he then boarded a "home counties" line train, where he alighted in Surrey, entered the toilets at the station there, exited wearing a suit and tie, walked to the car park and keyed into his 5 series Beemer and drove home to his wife and family.....

Some really do struggle though...