House prices to keep falling for years

[robots]

hello,

i think they should be banned nun, they cant go on writing such rubbish it doesnt contribute to the discussion at all,

your a legend Number, still havent heard from Keen (sent a couple of emails) was just letting him know how st kilda is going

what a day, sun shining again, this is paradise even if i have been battered and beaten down to a pulp

thankyou
robots

 

[sinner]

LOL and the roundabout continues............... your all wrong and im right ........ok... phew glad thats sorted

avaniceday

I think this roundabout is probably the most constructive thing anyone can really do right now, aside from running hard numbers into pretty charts..certainly prefer it to an information silence, or worse, an information consensus (which probably means the opposite is true)!

Don't think (or at least hope not) anyone here is trying to prove themselves right and everyone wrong, we are all just dumping information, which by definition gains some bias during conversion from data to info.

It's like reading the paper, you'd be an idiot to believe everything anyone writes down, you gotta read both sides of the bull**** and draw your line somewhere down the middle.

 

[nunthewiser]

hello,

i think they should be banned nun, they cant go on writing such rubbish it doesnt contribute to the discussion at all,

robots

LOLOLOL OH NO!!!.. dont tell me the gestapo thought police have finally stolen your freewheelin attitude to other peoples right to voice there opinion !

oh man im gunna go light a candle

 

[nunthewiser]

I think this roundabout is probably the most constructive thing anyone can really do right now, aside from running hard numbers into pretty charts..certainly prefer it to an information silence, or worse, an information consensus (which probably means the opposite is true)!

Don't think (or at least hope not) anyone here is trying to prove themselves right and everyone wrong, we are all just dumping information, which by definition gains some bias during conversion from data to info.

It's like reading the paper, you'd be an idiot to believe everything anyone writes down, you gotta read both sides of the bull**** and draw your line somewhere down the middle.

all cool sinner , i reckon this thread is a bewty actually and its great that all sides of the story is heard , EVEN the made up ones that sound really great too

cheers

 

[tech/a]

All your data is out of date, Kew has fallen about 15pc last quarter ....

Permabulls last bastion of hope is to quote prices over a 12 month period, that little rort is falling apart everyday that ticks by as well .....

no one is doubting the past as thats happened so why keep on regurgitating the figures ? facts are its toppling rapidly on average now .... prices are falling, clearance rates nosediving to rates not seen for decades .....

stop fighting the truth ...... who are you trying to fool ? scared about something ? your only 38pc geared, why the need to bend the truth ?

What the???

Leave all you to it.
Just quoted the figurs because I thought they would be of interest.

Nothing to prove,and nothing to gain being involved in this thread.

 

[numbercruncher]

So you deny the charge ?

I think you intentionally quote past gains when you are aware that prices are falling in most areas of the country !

But if your not doing that, fine, ill take your good word for it

 

[sinner]

What the???

Leave all you to it.
Just quoted the figurs because I thought they would be of interest.

Nothing to prove,and nothing to gain being involved in this thread.

You have nothing to gain but the dilution of ignorance through whatever knowledge you may provide to us who appreciate the on-hand opine of one who is deeply involved in the topic at hand both on a business and personal level.

Please do not take lines drawn in the sand too seriously, a bit of wind always blows it away anyway. If you stop posting in this thread, I will be upset and might !

 

[MrBurns]

You can forget your charts and "research" on property it's all old news, go out and talk to a real estate agent and get the real story, if you're interested that is.

Robots seems to be getting rattled for once, times must be tough in St Kilda.

 

[Mofra]

The guy from Mirvac right?

Well... Mirvac properties in the next suburb along have been on the market for nearly 2 years now. Can't drop the price because half have already sold, the rest can't.

Hilarious. Bottom of the market indeed. Why they needed to raise capital right?

Nah, Triguboff knows his stuff, he's Meriton not Mirvac.
Ignored the Mirvac comments as typical listed company spin (a wise man once said he had never read pessimism in a company report

Not sure how the 40%+ crowd feel about the 10-15% comments though.

 

[nunthewiser]

You can forget your charts and "research" on property it's all old news, go out and talk to a real estate agent and get the real story, if you're interested that is.

Robots seems to be getting rattled for once, times must be tough in St Kilda.

LOL ! "real story from a real estate agent" ??? WTF ...... m8 they have 2 storys .
1. when u are in the market to list a property they will tell you how much extra u can get for your property if u list with them
2. tell you how bad the market has become after you sign on dotted line

 

[Mofra]

Professor Keen sold his apartment to some sucker for the record

Wouldnt be surprised if the sale collapses due to finance like half the contracts do these days thou eh ?

He didn't even put the apartment on the market until this year; not really putting his money where his mouth is though is it?

Perhaps he's worried about the rise in unemployment, knowing that useless, sensationalised public commentary doesn't pay as well as it used to.

 

[numbercruncher]

Maybe the money means little to him Mofra ? perhaps he couldnt care less if his apartment crashed by 40pc, perhaps he was "attached" to it ...... maybe he had other reasons, There are stacks of property bears that arnt rushing out to sell .......

Im bearish on RE and the ASX but have some money in both, go figure !!

 

[robots]

hello,

i am neutral on RE and ASX and just going with the flow brothers out there,

best wishes to Luke on Idol tonite

thankyou
robots

 

[robots]

hello,

harry trig the man himself:

http://media.theaustralian.com.au/multimedia/2008/11/15-triguboff/index.html

what entertainment,

thankyou
robots

 

[So_Cynical]

The guy from Mirvac right?

Harry Triguboff http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Triguboff

So your not from Sydney chops?

I suppose Meriton could be confused with Mirvac.

 

[tayser]

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24648042-5007133,00.html

snippet:

THE Rudd Government is planning a Budget assault on middle class welfare which could see health benefits and family payments wound back.

With the global crisis blowing a $40 billion hole in revenues, economic departments have begun targeting expensive government programs.

Among a list of likely casualties is the 2004 decision to expand the Medicare Safety Net scheme for visits by pregnant women to obstetricians.

__________

Where's the talk about stopping negative gearing and the savings the government would reap from it?

now: all new properties bought, say, after Jan 1 2009 cannot be negatively geared.
future: all negative gearing ceases on Jan 1 2014. Current property owners which take advantage of negative gearing have 5 years to either pay off debt so the property they own is not negatively geared or sell it.

etc.

 

[Mofra]

Maybe the money means little to him Mofra ? perhaps he couldnt care less if his apartment crashed by 40pc, perhaps he was "attached" to it ...... maybe he had other reasons, There are stacks of property bears that arnt rushing out to sell .......

Im bearish on RE and the ASX but have some money in both, go figure !!

As yes, the cost/benefit analysis bugbear.
Assuming for example that Shane Oliver's expectations are right, we'll take his worse case 15% drop as a starting point. For an investor, is it worth selling, locking in cap gains tax, then having to pay ~5% to rebuy when/if the property drops? Often, the case is no, it makes more sense to hold.
If the property is positively geared, it would make even less sense to sell.

Of course I don't profess to know the direction of the market in the short term, however I don't know any property owners who view it as a short term investment either.

 

[Spek]

"Saturday's clearances highlight the market's rapid fall over the past 12 months.

For the same Saturday last year, Brisbane clearances were 55.4 per cent compared with 32.1per cent, Adelaide 61.6 per cent compared with 42.1 per cent, Melbourne 76.7 per cent compared with 52.9 per cent, and Sydney 58.1 per cent compared with 41.6 per cent.

But low clearances and falling prices are not the only worries for Melbourne agents. Mid-November is supposed to be the busiest time of the year in Australia's auction capital, but on Saturday only 776 properties were listed for auction, compared with 1041 last year.

"That should be enough to tell everybody the market is sick," said the owner of one of Melbourne's largest inner-suburban agencies, who did not want to be named. Melbourne, according to Australian Property Monitors figures, recorded a 7.5 per cent increase in house prices in the 12 months to September.

But house prices were flat during the September quarter, while apartment and unit prices fell 2.3 per cent.

Across the nation, Australian Property Monitors have predicted a 10 per cent price fall in the current financial year. "

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24661207-5013404,00.html

 

[robots]

hello,

good afternoon brothers. great day

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24663943-643,00.html

wow, shonk exchange down to 4 yr low, walloped yet the humble RE market in most capital cities is doing just fine, nirvana

well done to all those in doing it tough, keep your chin up and walk tall

thankyou
robots

 

[ROE]

“If you own your own home free and clear, people will often refer to you as a fool. All that money sitting there, doing nothing.”
- Anthony Hsieh, CEO Lending Tree

The year is now 2008 who is the fool obviously Lending Tree cos they file for bankruptcy not long ago.


"The retreat in housing-market activity that's now under way amounts to a simmering-down process...
rather than a classic cyclical contraction that could spiral down for some time."

- David Seiders, Chief Economist, National Association of Home Builders, Jan 2006

The year is now 2008 and American market has crashed
Damn that Mirvac quote could fit in with this one housing is now bottum


and now for a more sensible quote from a great man

Sir John Templeton: Keep a cautious watch
"Prices of houses in all nations for centuries have fluctuated above and below cost of reproduction. In the United States now, in most major cities, homes can be sold for far higher prices than reproduction costs. Several times in my lifetime, house prices have been far below reproduction costs, and such cycles are likely to continue."