House prices to keep falling for years

[Glen48]

I had brought and sold 7 houses over 30 and made money on two. The last one I double my money in 6 yrs and then decided to sell as it has reach the top and that will be it for real Estate for a long time, cash in the Bank is the only way until there is some direction.
G20 has to come up with a new system with in weeks or its all over.

 

[robots]

And I'm sure there are people who are up on the long side of shares as well, but by and large property investors will be down, and cherry picking particularly good suburbs on 3 month old data before the slow down, probably doesn't do your credibility any good.

As for the GHPC comment, it indicates you think of it as a marginalised view, who are coming to proseletyze here. Perhaps the reality is, that they simply could see what was happening earlier than anyone else, and the views are becoming mainstream, as people stop denying reality.

For the disclosure laws, I am a member of GHPC as well (as well as some very bullish property investment forums).

hello,

what they could see st kilda was going up 14.7%, melton 7%, nth fitzoy 20+%

how long we been in slow down for sunder? stick with gphc, oh thats right they have all disappeared havent they (hiredgoon still around?)

keep it coming

thankyou
robots

 

[nunthewiser]

The graph's a bit old - it was published in 2005 and naturally the housing bubble has got much bigger since then.

Thankyou kindly for your time

anyone else got anything more up to date as in chart/statistics/info? or can point me the way

re japan property markets

cheers

 

[robots]

hello,

you think a newer graph would be out nun, doesnt do much for credibility

thankyou
robots

 

[tech/a]

Good post!!

Fair enough, my only point is that if your capital base is shrinking, it's well....shrinking. There's no doubt you bought at the right time. Your numbers look very impressive.

Buffet is down 30% for the year, I read somewhere. The only people who have made money this year have either been short or in cash.

In general terms your right,however there are exceptions,one other of course are those who have worked for a living or have businesses which have turned a profit.

I think the importance of the supply issue is overblown. The major factor is always availability of credit. Potential buyers can only pay with available funds no matter how much they would like to borrow. If I see banks moving back to zero deposit/equity loans then I'll believe the property market is going to move up again. Only because that is where we've just been, so it stands to reason that for property to even stay at par level, credit availability has to stay at or above that peak. P/e's ratios may be good for you given your buy-in point, but for new investors they don't look very attractive. I live in one of the most tightly held areas in Melbourne (Middle Park) and I've never seen so many properties passed in. This time last year everything that went up was sold, everything.[/quote

Valid points albeit some are extreme. Everything has an intrinsic replacement value,Land + developement+ improvements. There are areas where excellent value can be found. As for your properties being handed in --- many who are seeing interest rates plummet and pressure coming off are now and in the future in the position NOT to sell if they don't wish to. Put that into your future equations.

For those who think Australia won't have double digit unemployment and huge government deficits, followed by rising taxes, you're kidding yourselves. Last time I checked over 2/3 of our economy was in the services sector. This will be hit very hard by a reduction in consumer spending. Just wait for the dark news that's going to follow this coming xmas period, even with the one-off Rudd hand outs to pensioners etc, which is the only thing that will stop a quarter of negative growth anyway. Add to that a depressed commodities sector, problems in the agri sector and it's not looking like a soft landing.

Very possibly.But there are many very cashed up 30-65 yr olds who will hoard their hard earned,I'm one,we will also release it when opportunity arises.

I mean, why on earth would anyone think Australia is well placed to survive this global downturn? The government reviews it's outlook every month. Massive rate cuts, stimulus packages? These are emergency measures, not something an economy that is "well placed" needs to do.

You bet they are. To not would be irresponsible.Its quite possible they will over react!

Being as we are, a satellite to China's economy, I'm even more concerned. They're doing so well they have just unveiled a $500bn+ stimulus package. Tell me that isn't the writing on the wall.

China firstly isn't insolvent.2ndly it has this massive population which is moving very quickly toward westernisation. They love the wealth it creates.
They are willing to encourage that.Not to mention India. I'm certain we will get a bigger share of the pie than most.

The problem for housing is that peak credit for the baby boomers has been reached. The next driver for credit growth is where? The subsequent smaller generations of Australians who are going to have to pay higher taxes to support retiring baby boomers?

I think the aim is and should be sustained growth.Outlier moves like that which we have seen will return but not for many years. Eventually wages and affordability will return to a more realistic par.We wont see 30 or even 15% / year on a sustained basis for many years, but those who do selectively invest in property can do very well long term.

 

[YChromozome]

hello,
you think a newer graph would be out nun, doesnt do much for credibility

Japan was the biggest housing asset bubble on record. As we exceeded it in 2005, I don't think there is any value in a newer graph. What will it show? Currently we are in uncharted territory. No body has ever had a housing bubble as big as current.

 

[nunthewiser]

hello,

you think a newer graph would be out nun, doesnt do much for credibility

thankyou
robots

opportunity is in the hand of the beerholder they say

trust you are having a spectacular day

cheers

 

[nunthewiser]

Japan was the biggest housing asset bubble on record. As we exceeded it in 2005, I don't think there is any value in a newer graph. What will it show? Currently we are in uncharted territory. No body has ever had a housing bubble as big as current.

yes i know what the graphs for the u.s , oz and uk look like , im mainly after a jap one as intrested in a few things

cheers

 

[jeflin]

Hi,

Just for the record I do consider that stocks are and always will be the best long term investment, but saying that I do own my own home which I don’t consider an investment but a lifestyle choice.

In terms of long term investment, I will say that housing is as good as stocks in throwing up solid returns.

It is harder to liquidate housing assets though but that is the beauty as it prevents us from making hasty decisions in the short term.

 

[johenmo]

We know they up and down and increase looooooong term (long being a relative term).

My experience and from talking to others who have moved a lot thru work is that people who have bought and stayed in one place or kept it have done best. So reading back about housing vs shares. Provided you have get it right, shares outdo property in general terms. We've doubled our money in 4 years, and lost 10% over 7 years. Depends when you buy in the cycle in the particular market. Our first house would have been up 10x in 20 years if we'd kept it. And the mortgage was small.

As for the thread theme, I think we've got a year or so for them to fall and bottom. The masses look at their home as their big asset, and traditionally love bricks n mortar. But the boom never lasts forever, whatever the commodity/item.

 

[tech/a]

Some tables of interest.

 

[nunthewiser]

Some tables of interest.

Thankyou very much

might actually start a separate thread on all things japan instead of clogging this one with my questions

cheers

 

[SBH]

From a different forum.....

The crash is here!

http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=5312

The adjusted clearance rate for Brisbane last week was 17%. That is unbelievably low, no wonder the press hasnt mentioned real estate all week. Sydney today had a clearance rate of 41%, with 100 'unreporteds' so expect that to be adjusted to high 30% later. Great stuff

Which property bull wants to be the first to admit they are beaten?

 

[robots]

From a different forum.....

The crash is here!

http://forum.globalhousepricecrash.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=5312

The adjusted clearance rate for Brisbane last week was 17%. That is unbelievably low, no wonder the press hasnt mentioned real estate all week. Sydney today had a clearance rate of 41%, with 100 'unreporteds' so expect that to be adjusted to high 30% later. Great stuff

Which property bull wants to be the first to admit they are beaten?

hello,

i have been smacked down, beaten to a pulp, i admit it, i am a mess, confused, embarrassed and in total shock

cant believe it, struggling for words, gobsmacked, anyone know if a salvation army in St Kilda for assistance?

thankyou
robots

 

[SBH]

hello,

i have been smacked down, beaten to a pulp, i admit it, i am a mess, confused, embarrassed and in total shock

cant believe it, struggling for words, gobsmacked, anyone know if a salvation army in St Kilda for assistance?

thankyou
robots

Ha ha good post robots. Well done on St Kilda, looks like it will perform well compared to most other places.

But whats your opinion on Australia as a whole? Going down or up?

 

[robots]

hello,

thanks sbh,

as mentioned previously i wouldn't have a clue and am in for the long haul

5, 10, 15, 25yrs will be gone soon and hopefully i and others doing the rent&invest technique all have a stash to enjoy

Australia is the best joint in the world hands down and I am just on the ride of life

thankyou
robots

 

[YChromozome]

anyone know if a salvation army in St Kilda for assistance?

There was last week . .

. . However administrators were appointed on Thursday.

 

[robots]

There was last week . .

. . However administrators were appointed on Thursday.

hello,

too much debt ychromo?

thankyou
robots

 

[MrBurns]

hello,

thanks sbh,

as mentioned previously i wouldn't have a clue and am in for the long haul

5, 10, 15, 25yrs will be gone soon and hopefully i and others doing the rent&invest technique all have a stash to enjoy

Australia is the best joint in the world hands down and I am just on the ride of life

thankyou
robots

I agree Robots, no matter what you've always got a door and a key to put in it, unlike some shares that just disappear.

We are in the best country in the world, if you want to know how lucky we are just look at the world news sometimes.

Enjoy..........and be grateful.

 

[nunthewiser]

I agree Robots, no matter what you've always got a door and a key to put in it, unlike some shares that just disappear.

We are in the best country in the world, if you want to know how lucky we are just look at the world news sometimes.

Enjoy..........and be grateful.

WTF!!!!! u got a fever mr burns ? you just agreed with robots!!, quick someone take the mans tempreture!