Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Help needed for beginner

Re: Beginner here...

Now, tight stops in relation to a pullback entry.
My favourite daytrading technique, when I was a misguided daytrader


Many a technical analyst or budding analysts have been disillusioned or indeed destroyed financially in the attempt to trade technically day trading.

Duc.

Does this date back to the over night US trade thread a few years ago?
You were killing the market??
This says a lot in terms of "where you're at".

Wayne glad to see you putting in your $50 bucks worth.

Have to smile though as Frustration leads to dictionary swallowing and I have to run off and find my calculus notes. There is no need for either.

Just quickly Wayne has touched on a very valid point and that of points or parts of methods in isolation.

Fundamental analysis is or should be the comparison of company performance from years to year and projected forward to gain an "insight" to true value now and possible market value in a period forward.

Technical analysis works also in numbers,or those who use it correctly do.
Rather than company figures, technicians use methodology figures to attain a positive expectancy and hence a consistant profit.

Fundamentalists have trouble divorcing company performance from technical methodology performance. They dont have to be dependant on each other,although before you start screaming duc positive performance will give a methodology the result it wishes to capture, we just dont need to know why its possible or why its even happening, simply we need to buy and sell until we find them then ride them for as long as our numbers tell us to.
Numbers themselves and their implementation to a methodolgy will determine result.

To prove this I could trade any market with a positive result given the opportunity to select universe and trade with a proven methodology.
Not because I'm the best trader in the world but because the methodology will prove its numbers.
I dont need to know the stock or even its country of origin just its chart.
Volume if liquidity was an issue.
 
Re: Beginner here...

Markets fluctuate between inefficiency and efficiency.The key is to have the analytical ability to differentiate between the two states.

Duc,

So, playing darts sober would be efficient and playing drunk would be inefficient. No?

An interesting point and one close to my heart. Focus on the words that you have written.

"trade more often with less knowledge"

By increasing your exposure to RISK....(more trades)....
with less knowledge,

You are really setting yourself up for less than satisfactory results.
I would advocate your alternate methodology,

I fully agree here, and finally this has been touched on. Overtrading will kill your account.

What constitutes overtrading?
Your performance will tell that.

:confused: Why does this Technical vs Fundamental thing have to be an issue? It is totally irrelevant unless you know one`s goals, objectives, personality and capacity to trade or invest.

It is all about exposure to risk and how one manages that. The stock itself represents a small amount of risk, but there are other factors that must be evaluated / analysed etc, including the number 1 risk: yourself! Can technical or fundamental anlysis determine success if you are a wreck or just a plain idiot? No!

Get yourself sorted and you are there. Maybe that is why so few are good / professional at it and make money and the majority are not and don`t make money.
 
Re: Beginner here...

An interesting point and one close to my heart. Focus on the words that you have written.

"trade more often with less knowledge"

By increasing your exposure to RISK....(more trades)....
with less knowledge,

You are really setting yourself up for less than satisfactory results.
I would advocate your alternate methodology

Less knowledge of what? The company you're trading? Doesnt matter if you know how you're trading method performs within the parameters you set what and when you trade will have the same or similar result regardless of those in the universe you choose to trade.

You're trading a methodology not a stock. Regardless of how you derive the method--Technical,Fundamental,Darts,tips,Investment mags.

You need to KNOW how it (The methodology) performs.
You can then trade anything-----how you trade it has no bearing on it.
To demonstrate the point If I had enough capital to trade EVERY trade using the Techtrader method the result is incredible.

If I own a business selling widgets and double widgets I dont care if the business producing the widgets is profitable only that MY business is profitable.

People need to get their head around the fact that a trading business is quite distinct from the commodity it trades.
Those who trade based upon isolated components of a method be it fundamental or technical will have results that will be spasmodic, there will not be a steady rise toward profit just as a business which didnt keep an eye on all aspects of its profit and loss statement would see that type of management of business reflected in a less than satisfactory balance sheet.

Simply its like taking care of sales and forgetting run away overheads.

Snake I think what I'm saying can be best understood if you realise that a methodology can and should be designed for whatever way you trade.
If using a newsletter a method could be designed.You wouldnt or shouldnt trade any method without knowing what the result is going to be (expectancy).
The argument of technical V fundamental is missing the point.

You need a methodology and a "blueprint" of performance to be able to implement a successful trading business even part time.
Without one you'll have at best average inconsistant results. Just like any un organised business.
 
Re: Beginner here...

Bullmarket,

I agree with the following point.

In addition to your post, a professional trader will also look at things like profit ratio....ie....how many $ profit he/she makes per winning trade divided by how many $ loss he/she makes per losing trade. This and all sorts of other measurements to measure trading performance/profitability are discussed in many trading books.

Only to add your expectancy is the ultimate guide.

Snake
 
Re: Beginner here...

No problem snake

Looks like we, or at least I ;), might be drifting onto a sort of parallel concept - bench marking your trading performance.

Imo a trading plan should also include what benchmark(s) will be used to measure how well or poorly your trading has performed for the week/month/quarter/year or whatever time frame suits.

For example, if a trader has made a loss or made say only a few % profit for the year then he/she would have been better off putting the funds in a term deposit for example. And so in this scenario the trader obviously needs to review his/her plan and strategies or even consider whether they should be trading at all...

I used to use the ASX200 Accumulation Index as my benchmark, but it isn't appropriate now since I am solely invested in LPT's and infrastructure/energy trusts. Having income as my #1 priority atm I don't really use a traditional benchmark now. My biggest risk atm is that any of my holdings (for me they are all relatively low risk though) might lower their distributions in the future for whatever reason so I have to keep a weather eye out for any potential storm clouds. Luckily I don't see any atm.

So given that I am relatively confident that in say 10 years time my holdings should be worth more than they are today my current 'benchmark' is comparing the income generated by my portfolio against our yearly requirements. Atm the income has a buffer over the min requirements so that means mrs bullmarket is happy....and if she is happy then I am happy :)

Benchmarks can be virtually anything really - could be market indices, fixed dollar targets, percentage targets etc etc...whatever suits the trader.

In the mean time I look to see if there are opportunities to tweak my holdings to firstly spread the overall portfolio risk wider and to look for opps to increase the average yield of my portfolio without increasing the overall risk.

cheers

bullmarket
 
Re: Beginner here...

....before you start screaming duc positive performance will give a methodology the result it wishes to capture, we just dont need to know why its possible or why its even happening, simply we need to buy and sell until we find them then ride them for as long as our numbers tell us to.
Numbers themselves and their implementation to a methodolgy will determine result.

To prove this I could trade any market with a positive result given the opportunity to select universe and trade with a proven methodology.
Not because I'm the best trader in the world but because the methodology will prove its numbers.
I dont need to know the stock or even its country of origin just its chart.
Volume if liquidity was an issue.


Snake I think what I'm saying can be best understood if you realise that a methodology can and should be designed for whatever way you trade.
If using a newsletter a method could be designed.You wouldnt or shouldnt trade any method without knowing what the result is going to be (expectancy).
The argument of technical V fundamental is missing the point.

You need a methodology and a "blueprint" of performance to be able to implement a successful trading business even part time.
Without one you'll have at best average inconsistant results. Just like any un organised business.

I agree.
Less knowledge of a company? Yes that is ok. Why? One does not want to marry an opinion of something he or she has no control over. You do have control over your system though and the operation and evaluation of it.

And you should have control over your emotions, vices, inclinations, weaknesses etc. It`s when people look for more than the system is giving them that they can overtrade and bomb out by increasing their exposure to RISK....(more trades).... More uneccessary trades! Chasing the market instead of letting the market come to them or their systems. This comes full circle into having less knowledge of yourself. :)
 
Re: Another damn beginner

Thats what im not sure of snake...is a stock such as bxp..a stock to watch all the time...or can i just sit on it and leave it for a while without watching it?
 
Re: Another damn beginner

Wriggles said:
Thats what im not sure of snake...is a stock such as bxp..a stock to watch all the time...or can i just sit on it and leave it for a while without watching it?

Wriggles,

My SMSF consists of largely blue chip companies which have produced consistent growth and reliable yield. It includes obviously some of the "big banks", plus BHP, MBL, Suncorp, Westfield, etc etc.

However, "reliable" though these stocks may be, I would not fail to watch what they are doing at least twice a week. And if I had speculative small companies I'd be watching them every day.

Others may disagree. I just don't like being taken surprise if I haven't been watching what's happening for a week or so.

It's a great idea to buy shares for your baby daughter. So it's worth protecting her interests.

All the best

Julia
 
Re: Another damn beginner

Wriggles said:
Hey all....another newbie here.

Wife and i just had a lil daughter and have invested 10k into some shares for her in the future.

Dont know to much about the market so just go with what seems to be a good and stable company.

Some of u will prob say..sh*&^ , what has this guy done...lol...hence the reason im after some feedback.....So...we bought wbc..tts...flt...tox...bxp...and bil.

Only major concern in bxp and tox.......we dont watch the market much so dont really keep a good eye on it. Are these stocks ok to leave or r they ones to watch readily?

Thanks

hi nice, u will get all the franking credits back from ATO for the dividends since your daugter is below the threshold!

Btw no resource stocks?

thx

MS
 
Re: Another damn beginner

Wriggles said:
Hey all....another newbie here.

Wife and i just had a lil daughter and have invested 10k into some shares for her in the future.

Dont know to much about the market so just go with what seems to be a good and stable company.

Some of u will prob say..sh*&^ , what has this guy done...lol...hence the reason im after some feedback.....So...we bought wbc..tts...flt...tox...bxp...and bil.

Only major concern in bxp and tox.......we dont watch the market much so dont really keep a good eye on it. Are these stocks ok to leave or r they ones to watch readily?

Thanks

hmmm i would consider anz, as an alternative to wbc, since it has increased presence in asia (to cater for al those soon-to-be-cashed up chinese) and it has the biggest margins of the big 4...

I would be careful about flt, qantas cut commissions, but i dont know much about it, i guess one-on-one service is what they have going for them, people either order tickets this way or online.... maybe hedge ur bets and take a stake in web...?

BIL has rave reviews from those in the know including craig james and paul xirades, they reckon sale of cleanaway was a big plus, and i personally reckon CHEP is such a good business...

the other stocks u mentioned, i dont know much except that TOX has had a good run lately!

I would seriously consider getting exposure to BHP and WPL, oil+uranium and oil, wpl has 1,3billion barrels in reserves, u really cant go wrong in the long term...

just my opinion..

all the best & good luck..!!
 
Re: Another damn beginner

nizar said:
hmmm i would consider anz, as an alternative to wbc, since it has increased presence in asia (to cater for al those soon-to-be-cashed up chinese) and it has the biggest margins of the big 4...

I would be careful about flt, qantas cut commissions, but i dont know much about it, i guess one-on-one service is what they have going for them, people either order tickets this way or online.... maybe hedge ur bets and take a stake in web...?

BIL has rave reviews from those in the know including craig james and paul xirades, they reckon sale of cleanaway was a big plus, and i personally reckon CHEP is such a good business...

the other stocks u mentioned, i dont know much except that TOX has had a good run lately!

I would seriously consider getting exposure to BHP and WPL, oil+uranium and oil, wpl has 1,3billion barrels in reserves, u really cant go wrong in the long term...

just my opinion..

all the best & good luck..!!

wow 1.3 billion barrels, btw do you know how many barrels they extract a yr (the most recent financial yr)?

thx

MS
 
Re: Another damn beginner

for full year 2005 production was 59.7mmboe
target for 2006 is 27% increase to 76mmboe

but analysts agree that this figure is conservative..

i shouldve bought in at 3860 on thurs but missed out, even today i put an order 4100 didnt get filled...

i have a feeling wpl maybe finish this year in the 60s...

sorry guys for off-topic discussion...
 
Re: Another damn beginner

Thanks guys and girls for your opinions...spose if i havent got the time every day to check those spec stocks then i might sell and put the $ into something i can check up on once a week. Also, maybe buy into other areas such as resource stocks, and try and have an egg in each basket.

I really appreciate your opinions...thnx heaps.
 
So, I'm a total beginner

I just got my first full time job. Since I still live with my parents, I've got a bit of spare cash and I'd like to invest it, long term. I'm looking to invest about 800 or so a month. I've done a bit of reading, but I'm still quite confused so I made up a list of questions that hopefully someone can help me with.

1. It seems indexed funds are recommended quite often. I understand the basics behind them (a fund that spreads the investments across a representative part of a particular index). But how do I actually go about investing in one? Should I spread my money across several indices? Which ones? Are there Australian funds for this?

2. About buying shares. I don't really want to go into this at the moment (because I'm a total beginner) and I'm a bit afraid of making major losses. But is it a better option than funds?

3. Dividends - I know these are paid out every so often by certain companies whose shares you own. Does every company do this? How does it work with indexed funds? Does this mean every company I invest in needs to be given my bank details?

4. Managed funds - From what I've read, these are a bad option? High fees, with mediocre performance? Or are there other perspectives?

5. Superannuation - Should I be putting money in this? I think I'm eligible for some co-contribution amounts from the government if I put more in. Also, should I be looking at different super funds? I just went with what my employer offered.

Thanks for reading
 
Re: So, I'm a total beginner

Hi Random, here are my :2twocents for what it is worth.

1. Yes you have the basics right. They try to match an index, the index they follow differs and so when you choose the index fund, you also need to choose the index to follow. The one you will be most farmiliar with is the ASX/200, the 200 biggest companies in OZ. But Index funds can follow any index. Take a look at Vanguard, they do a number of index funds. To invest in one you can use a financial planner, or set up an account with an online broker such as Comsec which will allow you to invest. If doing it through comsec, they will reimburse the entry fee, a financial planner may not.

2. I agree with you, you need to save up some starting capital before you begin investing and it can be an expensive learning environment. Besides, more funds allow you to contribute to them on a regular occurance, this is likely to work good in your situation.

3. Not all companies pay dividends, and some dividends are tax friendly (Franking credits) others are not. If you buy through a fund, the fund will receive the dividends and pay them back to you as a distribution, or you can choose to have them reinvested (a very good idea as far as I am concerned). So you only need to give your details to the fund manager.
If you buy shares and they pay dividends, yes you need to give your details to the company, they will send you a form to fill out.

4. Managed funds can be a very good option and an index fund as you are talking about is just a managed fund, albeit a managed fund that is trying to match and index but not beat it. As such the costs should be cheaper than an actively managed fund. I believe all individual grwoth strategies should include funds, especially is you want exposure to overseas markets, of want exposure to a specific sector but cannot or do not have the time to do the research yourself.

5. Super, You can't touch it until you are 60 so if you are young, and I believe you are I probably wouldn't, that being said, if you are eligible for a government co-contribution, there is nothing like free money, and depending on how much the government will add, you may be well ahead of the game, ie if you are eligible for the full amount and you put in $1,000 and the government does it's $1,500 that's a 150% immediate gain, you really can't beat that.

I would suggest you visit your local library and ready either 'Money' or 'Smart Investor' something like that, it will give you some useful information.

Brett
 
Re: So, I'm a total beginner

As another relative beginner, I found reading threads in this forum helped to no end. Googling words or phrases until I started to clear the cloudy waters and just sit back reading the forums. I started in shares with some capital (6K) and did about 2 months of paper trading with an account at www.asx.com.au to see if what I was reading was panning out on paper.

I decided that IPOs were a nice gentle introduction to the trading game for me and then I progressed to day trading with very small amounts and focussed on percentage returns rather than dollar amounts. It has been fun - not all profit - and a big learning curve.

You might get something out of it, you might not. Just thought I would post my experience so far.
 
Re: So, I'm a total beginner

Hello Random,

Congratulations on taking such a thoughtful approach at a presumably young age with sensible questions. Brett has given good answers to these.
I'd only add one thing and that is that if you are putting your funds into any sort of managed funds, index or otherwise, you will be paying a fee for their management. You may feel it's worth doing this until you gain some more experience, perhaps with paper trading.
An alternative could be to buy some direct blue chip shares via an online broker where your only fee will be the minimal brokerage involved.

Good luck.
 
Re: So, I'm a total beginner

Hi Random,
I remember being in your possie about 12 years ago and I can give you some advice from that most informative thing, hindsight. The first thing to do is NOT follow a stock tip from a workmate! At least not without doing some serious research yourself (DYOR). I put $5000 into a gold stock in my first year working and sold it last year for a grand total of $250!

If I had taken the IPO (Initial Public Offering) route at the time and bought some Commonwealth Bank shares I would have about $40000 worth just from that $5000! So blue chips are a good option.

I think super is also close to No. 1 option for you, at least at your age. The super co-contribution is a huge plus, and as well the returns, even though you can't access them until you are 60, are tax free. I would put at least enough into super so that you qualify for the maximum co-cont that you are eligible for. Then open an account with Commsec, put your money into the account linked with them, and do some reading about shares over the next six months. Paper trade some stocks to give yourself an idea of what could happen, then in six months you will have built up enough to start trading, both in understanding and funds.

Hope this is worth reading:)
 
Re: So, I'm a total beginner

Being total beginner is big disadvantage and at this stage would be better to leave your money with professionals, despite that they make major blunders from time to time.

And as mentioned above, you cannot beat free money.
 
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