HDR - Hardman Resources

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

Prayers will do you no good, as those trading gods
have abandoned HDR, until later in the year .....

..... and it's just soooooo good, when your trading
plan comes together .....

..... see you at the bottom folks.... 1.36-1.39 or even 1.27,
if it get's really nasty ... !~!

..... and with regard to the next pivot time, whatever the
price is on 19062006, then we'll be looking for the same
HDR price on 04072006, 28-31072006 and 11-14082006
and it may well be, given the current weakness, that we
will see a LOWER pivot price established for HDR, in
the months ahead.

Nothing has changed for us at all, so we are still negative
until later in the year and as an overview:

02-07082006 ..... HDR = low and anniversary of 2005 high?

..... should add, as per analysis posted previously, from the
June solstice 21062006 to around 29062006, may well be
a particularly negative period for HDR ..... as it will also be
compounded, by possible tax selling ???

As indicated in previous analysis, we would expect HDR
to recover in the last few months of 2006 and be firing
on all cylinders, in early 2007 ..... !~!

Let's see how all this unfolds ..... ???

happy days

yogi



=====

 

[Sean K]

So, Yogi, buy in August?

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi Kennas,

HDR ..... will be watching for a buying opportunity from
early August 2006 onwards, as HDR should enter 2007
on a roll .....

As posted above on 08062006:

"..... as per analysis posted previously, from
the June solstice 21062006 to around
29062006, may well be a particularly
negative period for HDR ..... as it will also
be compounded, by possible tax selling ???"

..... it looks like the slide started, late today !~!

HDR has been trading, according to expectations,
so far .....

happy days

yogi

 

[stockmaster]

HDR

As the oil price has rallied in the past few days, shares such as WPL, OST has climbed steadily, how about for companies with less capital such as HDR? My recommendation is between $1.8-$1.90 in the next few days, what is yours?

 

[Sean K]

Might go down if POO goes down Master.

But, I hope it goes to $3.00 in the next week!

 

[mlennox]

double bottom up from here

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi Dutchy,

HDR .....

More important is the time axis analysis, which
tells us, that the rough times are definitely not
finished yet ..... see below.



From around 07062006-02082006 may be an EXTREMELY
NEGATIVE time for HDR ..... possibly starting at the price
in the other 2 periods, mentioned above and going lower ???

So, instead of a high next August, as we have had in the
previous 2 years .... maybe we should be looking for an
extreme low instead, around 02082006 ..... !~!

-----

..... yeah, yeah, yeah, we'll get all the long -term holders
coming in here now to tip the bucket on us ... but let us
remind them, who posted the June-August rallies and highs
for the past two years, in a row ..... highs that have not
been seen again, since then ... !~!

-----

Maybe HDR is not the glamour stock some would like to
believe ... at least, not until August next year (2006) ..... ???

end quote:

=====

In addition to the above, our additional anlaysis regarding
the critical HDR pivot level at 1.90, is also well documented.

=====

Looking further ahead, after the expected lows in early
August 2006, we should see some significant news, around
17082006 and again, about 21082006 (finance-related???)
..... that should be the start of the good news and the
HDR recovery.

Mid-September 2006 should bring some more good
news/moves and that should continue into October 2006.

Early November 2006 will likely be negative for HDR, but
around 24112006, we should see a continuation of the
recovery .....

..... with the best news being, HDR should be in an
EXTREMELY POSITIVE mode, in early January 2007, until
about 12012007, when we may see some negative (financial?)
news released (???)

=====

So there it is folks ..... a quick overview of HDR, through
until January 2007 .....


happy trading

yogi

P.S. ..... of course, all of the above may be completely wrong,
but let's see how it all unfolds, in the months ahead .....

Hi folks,

HDR ..... trading to the script above, posted
on 25032006 ..... so far, so good .....

..... will be alert for lows in August 06 ... anniversaries of
2004 and 2005 highs arrive, about 02082006 !~!


have a great weekend

yogi

 

[bug]

Does anyone have any views on HDR value, after its recent falls?

Why is this company sitting on a 2.5 year low in the current oil environment?
HDR's SP has been up and down a fair bit over the years, rather than following a straight line up with the high oil price like Woodside and Oil Search.

 

[scsl]

bug, HDR shares were dumped in May after the company reiterated two production wells in the northern part of the Chinguetti field were making minimal contributions.

It just goes to show that record oil prices are meaningless to a company that fails to deliver. HDR shares have now fallen below what looked like a support level going back 2.5 years (at about $1.40) and this break could see it head lower.

Personally, I wouldn't buy HDR until it is back on track in terms of production and gains solid support from investors.

I managed to find this article that I read the other day. Please note it is dated 21 July 2006 so several points are out of date e.g. only 6 brokers are calling a Buy on HDR instead of 8.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=8FDD59E1-17A4-1130-F587FA0B7C1A300C

 

[NettAssets]

After reading the FA report I recon that the oil analysts have even less to go on than Yogi.

So I say get the cheque book out , buy at $1.38 and wait for the good news this week. - After all its in the planets.

Regards
John

With tongue firmly in cheek but trigger finger itchy.

 

[NettAssets]

Damn

I didn't do it and now in a trading Halt with possitive news from Mauritania - EDIT sorry that should have been Uganda

Cant see any notice of a halt I dont know whats happening
John

 

[tour]

whoppee. finally some good news today after a couple of bad ones. should be pretty smooth sailing for at least the next week or so.

 

[yogi-in-oz]

Hi folks,

HDR ..... as posted on 22072006, in this thread:

..... several positive time cycles come into play, around 17-22082006.

Coming off the 136 low on 16082006, HDR lifted at the start
of a positive period and by Jan-Feb 2007 this stock should be
booming again ..... that is, recent double-bottom lows at 136
will likely be proven to be the lows for 2006 .....

..... so the worst should be behind us already, but right now
the volume is low and the lows may be tested yet again,
before the general market finds the confidence to re-enter HDR.

For more detailed HDR analysis for the months ahead, refer
to our previous posts, in this thread.

happy days

yogi

 

[Porper]

Hi folks,

HDR ..... as posted on 22072006, in this thread:

..... several positive time cycles come into play, around 17-22082006.

Coming off the 136 low on 16082006, HDR lifted at the start
of a positive period and by Jan-Feb 2007 this stock should be
booming again ..... that is, recent double-bottom lows at 136
will likely be proven to be the lows for 2006 .....

..... so the worst should be behind us already, but right now
the volume is low and the lows may be tested yet again,
before the general market finds the confidence to re-enter HDR.

For more detailed HDR analysis for the months ahead, refer
to our previous posts, in this thread.

happy days

yogi

Yogi,

Thought I would put a different spin on HDR.You are bullish, I see it totally differently and I am very bearish, we shall see.If the XJO has infact started a new uptrend it will be difficult for almost any stock to slide, but all things being equal my wave count suggests that we have a lot further South to travel yet.

This stock is almost in freefall and a lot of major support has gone.

We shall see.I have gone short on this stock.

 

[BlueTrader]

HDR has been pummelled after production downgrades, presenting an opportunity for investors to get in low and benefit as the production and exploration picture progressively improves. Chinguetti stabilisation and the new Uganda finds are examples of future positive sentiment. HDR has been knocked that hard most negative sentiment has been priced in already.

HDR is at the development stage of now producing as well as exploring, allowing it a firmer base of revenues to grow and move forward with. It particularly needs to develop a consistent level of performance, carefully minimising downgrades.

 

[Porper]

HDR has been pummelled after production downgrades, presenting an opportunity for investors to get in low and benefit as the production and exploration picture progressively improves.

How about instead of saying the downgrades present a buying opportunity, they present a chance to get out with limited damage before the price continues its rapid decline ?

Who says the picture is going to improve anyway, it may continue the bad news, fact is nobody knows, pure speculation on your part I think.

It will do what it does, we just invest or trade as we see fit.

 

[BlueTrader]

Porper, You sound very pessimistic on HDR. Companies like HDR are in the business of exploration and are definitely not without risk. They are infinitely riskier than banks and supermarkets. There is always some risk there could be further bad news like a production downgrade, but can bad news keep coming ad infinitum just because it has been preceded by bad news? Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

What specifically makes you think the share price will continue its rapid decline? Is there some further bad news you are aware of, without speculating?

Hardman has over a $1 Billion market capitalisation and has built itself up to being a producer. Hopefully it can successfully consolidate its position to deliver better consistency of production in the future.

 

[Porper]

What specifically makes you think the share price will continue its rapid decline? Is there some further bad news you are aware of, without speculating?

.

I didn't say I thought the share price would continue its rapid decline, I was merely pointing out that this is as likely to go down as up and that this isn't necessarily a good buying opportunity.Cheap stocks get much cheaper, quite often in fact.

Whether HDR goes up or down is of little consequence to me as it is only a tiny percentage of my portfolio.

My views are based solely on the chart, with the Elliot wave count which I posted earlier.I have no idea about the fundamentals of the company.

 

[rub92me]

Ahem, looks like yogi's positive timecycles beat your negative Elliot wave counts for the moment, Porper. Waiting for Thor to strike his hammer and give this the final say.

 

[Porper]

Ahem, looks like yogi's positive timecycles beat your negative Elliot wave counts for the moment, Porper. Waiting for Thor to strike his hammer and give this the final say.

Maybe you should buy some Rub92me, if you believe in the stars and time cycles might be worth a punt.Doing very nicely today, almost surging in fact.

If you believe in Elliot Wave then the theory still holds at higher levels than this.We'll know soon enough.I still think the probability is that HDR will go down.