GRR - Grange Resources

[Erlang]

Still early days. I'll wait until their results come out.

Besides, I can't really sell as I'll be hit with taxes on my capital gains. If I wait a couple more months, my tax billed is halved. That's a certainty.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I can't really sell as I'll be hit with taxes on my capital gains. If I wait a couple more months, my tax billed is halved.

whatever.... buy a lottery ticket.

It is a small producer around the edges. Iron ore price has fallen. So goes the hot money.

... the price of iron ore will ultimately be determined by China. For reference, in Q2, fully 84 per cent of Australia’s iron ore exports were to China. Next was Japan at 6 per cent and South Korea at 5 per cent. .... iron ore price plunged nearly 15 per cent to $US130.2 a tonne and is down 45 per cent from the record high of $US237.57 it reached just three months ago.

and GRR ... lagging that peak, but not by much (enough to suggest it may fall further?)

 

[qldfrog]

Still early days. I'll wait until their results come out.

Besides, I can't really sell as I'll be hit with taxes on my capital gains. If I wait a couple more months, my tax billed is halved. That's a certainty.

FWIW your profit might half as well....not exactly a term deposit ...I never understood that reasoning, all good when shares keep going higher and higher but if they fall???

 

[qldfrog]

FWIW your profit might half as well....not exactly a term deposit ...I never understood that reasoning, all good when shares keep going higher and higher but if they fall???

let's take some figures: purchase 10000 @ 24c in november for 2.4k, reached 90c last month: profit $6.6k taxed at 50% -> 3.3k in your pocket;
if you wait 1 y and discounted capital gain:25% tax instead; you get that 3.3k for a SP of 68c (4.4k profit -25% tax)

so any GRR below 68c and you would have been better off selling while paying fullcap gain tax;
last SP: 63c..you should have sold already..obviously one does not know the peak but not exactly looking good so the longer you wait the worse it might get..and this assumes you got the shares at 24c a low in the last year or so, and an actual tax rate of 50%

CQFD

 

[divs4ever]

when they fall i decide IF to buy more

i was buying GRR as low as 11.5c in 2014

mine owe me 20.3 cents a share ( average )

GRR

GRANGE RESOURCES. ORDINARY

Change

Balance Date	Dividend Type	Cents per share	Ccy	Franked %	Ex-Dividend Date	Books Close Date	Pay Date
31/12/2020	Final	2.000	AUD	100.00	12/03/2021	15/03/2021	30/03/2021
30/06/2020	Interim	1.000	AUD	100.00	11/09/2020	14/09/2020	30/09/2020
31/12/2019	Final	1.000	AUD	100.00	13/03/2020	16/03/2020	30/03/2020
30/06/2019	Interim	1.000	AUD	100.00	10/09/2019	11/09/2019	27/09/2019
31/12/2018	Final	1.000	AUD	100.00	14/03/2019	15/03/2019	29/03/2019
30/06/2018	Interim	1.000	AUD	100.00	11/09/2018	12/09/2018	26/09/2018
31/12/2017	Final	1.000	AUD	100.00	13/03/2018	14/03/2018	28/03/2018
31/12/2016	Final	0.500	AUD	100.00	14/03/2017	15/03/2017	29/03/2017
30/06/2016	Interim	0.500	AUD	100.00	08/09/2016	09/09/2016	27/09/2016

looking better than a term deposit to me , currently ( even at 2 x 1 cent per year )

 

[Erlang]

let's take some figures: purchase 10000 @ 24c in november for 2.4k, reached 90c last month: profit $6.6k taxed at 50% -> 3.3k in your pocket;
if you wait 1 y and discounted capital gain:25% tax instead; you get that 3.3k for a SP of 68c (4.4k profit -25% tax)

so any GRR below 68c and you would have been better off selling while paying fullcap gain tax;
last SP: 63c..you should have sold already..obviously one does not know the peak but not exactly looking good so the longer you wait the worse it might get..and this assumes you got the shares at 24c a low in the last year or so, and an actual tax rate of 50%

CQFD

Absolutely. If I had known 90 cents was the peak, then yes. And my profit may halve too. But that wasn't and isn't certain. The only thing that's certain are the taxes. And I prefer not to have an unnecessarily high tax bill at the moment.

Also, I originally bought the GRR shares for their dividends.

Over the last few months I've given the "wait for half capital gains versus sell now with more profits" argument considerable thought.
Using your parameters:

 

[qldfrog]

Absolutely. If I had known 90 cents was the peak, then yes. And my profit may halve too. But that wasn't and isn't certain. The only thing that's certain are the taxes. And I prefer not to have an unnecessarily high tax bill at the moment.

Also, I originally bought the GRR shares for their dividends.

Over the last few months I've given the "wait for half capital gains versus sell now with more profits" argument considerable thought.
Using your parameters:

View attachment 129313

Indeed the only thing certain is tax,but the rate is not: will you have an unexpected winfall or loss changing your tax rate?, will a government change or a covid rebuilding effort remove the discount?
What is certain is now and past..even if some want to rewrite history.
Future is uncertain.
Do for the best in your specific case?

 

[divs4ever]

Grange Resources announced FPO dividend of 2 cps for a period of six months ending on 30 June 2021, with the record date of 14 September 2021 and payment date of 30 September 2021. The Company's DRP will not apply to this dividend.

some consolation to those that didn't sell near the peak

my av. SP is 20.3 cents , so this equates to a nearly 20% div. return in the last 12 months , and that beats the stuffing out of your term deposit rates ( but check the franking , there is no mention of franking on this ann. )

DYOR

 

[divs4ever]

Since the end of the half-year, the Board of Directors have recommended the payment of a fully franked dividend of 2.0 cents per share or $23.1 million. The interim dividend was declared NIL conduit foreign income and will be paid on 30 September 2021.

OK so the franking is still a go

awesome

 

[Erlang]

Better than a term deposit.

From today's financial report:

Grange achieved a statutory profit after tax of $205.3 million for the half year ended 30 June 2021 (2020: $65.6 million profit after tax) on revenues from mining operations of $449.6 million (2020: $231.0 million).

Sales for the half year ended 30 June 2021 totalled 1,270,005 tonnes of high quality, low impurity iron ore products compared to 1,239,771 tonnes for the preceding 2020 half year.

The average pellet price received during the half year was US$260.54 per tonne of product sold (FOB Port Latta) (2020: US$115.34 per tonne). Despite continued volatility and uncertainty as to the future direction of iron ore prices, the market continues to recognise the quality value in use premium for high quality, low impurity iron ore products sold by Grange.

Grange will continue to deliver into secured term offtake agreements for all products for 2021.

 

[qldfrog]

ok, can not resist so apologies in advance @Erlang and @divs4ever :
Not very charitable; but selling at 90c instead of 64c today would have save you the equivalent of 13 years of dividends in less than a month...so clearly, or at least to me, shares like GRR are NOT to be used for dividends returns....

 

[Erlang]

True. But that's after the fact. I certainly had no idea that the GRR price would shoot up by a factor of three in several months. So I bought them for the dividends, not thinking they were a long-term *growth* investment -- for that I have other shares that don't rely upon a single operating mine.

And perhaps I should have sold them when they peaked at 90 cents, but I don't have a crystal ball.

 

[qldfrog]

True. But that's after the fact. I certainly had no idea that the GRR price would shoot up by a factor of three in several months. So I bought them for the dividends, not thinking they were a long-term *growth* investment -- for that I have other shares that don't rely upon a single operating mine.

And perhaps I should have sold them when they peaked at 90 cents, but I don't have a crystal ball.

But now you know...

 

[divs4ever]

ok, can not resist so apologies in advance @Erlang and @divs4ever :
Not very charitable; but selling at 90c instead of 64c today would have save you the equivalent of 13 years of dividends in less than a month...so clearly, or at least to me, shares like GRR are NOT to be used for dividends returns....

this is still a forum differing views are acceptable here

i have some excess cash already and am struggling for sensible places to invest it ( too old to build up a farm or renovate a house )

so am quite happy to have a few thou. in GRR , paying me 2c a year ( plus franking ) for a steady splash of income , i DON'T expect the current 4 cents per year to last they still have new mining projects to develop so expect Capex into those to help drain the piggy bank

i DID briefly consider selling down ( but not out of ) GRR around that 90 cent mark ( and NORMALLY i would have reduced closer to the 50c mark ) but for whatever reason ( like where the hell do i park THAT cash ) i didn't

assuming the SKI , YFZ , HSN and ONT takeovers succeed ( and assume the API will not proceed ) i will be looking at an uncomfortable pile of cash coming already

but heck , if you are younger and looking to say buy a house , or a tertiary degree , or a business maybe you have better options ( for you ) than holding GRR for another 10 years

 

[mullokintyre]

Like QLDfrog, I sold mine , but waited too long and did not get the price that the Northern Amphibian did.
I fully expect to buy back in at a significantly cheaper price once the EX div date has passed.
I am also confidant that the difference between my sell price and buy price will be at least 15%.
So I will be more than happy if that occurs.
Mick

 

[divs4ever]

The Board of Grange Resources Limited (“Grange” or “the Company”) is pleased to advise that a special
dividend of $0.10 fully franked has been declared.
The Company has performed strongly in 2021 and for the 2021 calendar year dividends of $0.04 have
already been paid ($0.02 final dividend (see announcement dated 26 February 2021) & $0.02 interim
dividend (see announcement dated 25 August 2021)). The Board has assessed the capital
requirements of the Company and resolved to issue a $0.10 special dividend to be paid on 29
December 2021. This will result in $0.14 being paid in dividends during 2021.
Key dates include:
Ex-dividend date 15 December 2021
Record Date 16 December 2021
Payment Date 29 December 2021
This announcement was authorised by the Board

=================================================================================

DYOR

i hold GRR ( since August 2012 av. SP 20.3 cents )

i was hoping they would use that cash pile to fund the project under development

is there something else in the wind ?? ( looks like a defensive move to me )

 

[divs4ever]

now to the few that follow my strategies , they would know that NORMALLY at around 140% profit i would start thinking about a rescue of my investment cash

GRR is one of the very few ( less than 10 of the over 200 shares i hold ) i have resisted reducing even when it touched 90 cents a share

time will tell if i am correct ( i really thought they would stock-pile cash , for the upcoming project )

take care

 

[Erlang]

That 10-cent special dividend changed the maths a bit.

@divs4ever I am also surprised (and slightly concerned) that GRR didn't use their cash to fund that WA project. What's going on?

And I had just read a few days earlier that perhaps much of Australia's iron ore (that is, hematite) might not be so appealing in a carbon-neutral future. It's easier, supposedly, to produce carbon-neutral iron from ores like magnetite, which is of course what GRR mines in Tasmania and maybe in WA in the future.

 

[divs4ever]

GRR

GRANGE RESOURCES. ORDINARY

Change

Balance Date	Dividend Type	Cents per share	Ccy	Franked %	Ex-Dividend Date	Books Close Date	Pay Date
30/06/2021	Interim	2.000	AUD	100.00	13/09/2021	14/09/2021	30/09/2021
31/12/2020	Final	2.000	AUD	100.00	12/03/2021	15/03/2021	30/03/2021
30/06/2020	Interim	1.000	AUD	100.00	11/09/2020	14/09/2020	30/09/2020
31/12/2019	Final	1.000	AUD	100.00	13/03/2020	16/03/2020	30/03/2020
30/06/2019	Interim	1.000	AUD	100.00	10/09/2019	11/09/2019	27/09/2019
31/12/2018	Final	1.000	AUD	100.00	14/03/2019	15/03/2019	29/03/2019
30/06/2018	Interim	1.000	AUD	100.00	11/09/2018	12/09/2018	26/09/2018
31/12/2017	Final	1.000	AUD	100.00	13/03/2018	14/03/2018	28/03/2018
31/12/2016	Final	0.500	AUD	100.00	14/03/2017	15/03/2017	29/03/2017
30/06/2016	Interim	0.500	AUD	100.00	08/09/2016	09/09/2016	27/09/2016

with that 10c special div. coming , it is probably a good thing i got my investment cash back ( plus franking ) then

it should happen the iron ore will still have some buyers several nations are happy to have feed-stock over 40% , but maybe the primary customers will be India and Vietnam in the future ( and arguably lower prices )

 

[Erlang]