Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Greynomad99 Weekly ASX review

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Rabbithop said:
Wishing you A Happy, Healthy n Prosperous 2022. Any chance of you doing an update on your Stock Commentary? I am keen on PLS on your list. How high will it go. Like to see if it could hit a high of 3.70, 3.80 even though there was a drop on Friday.
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Something else I forgot to mention is that the XAO has broken out of a pennant pattern my blogs have mentioned. Theory suggests that if price can confidently move above the resistance level it currently has its nose above then targets of 8180, 8350 and 8500. My best guess would see a rally to maybe 8400. The other possibility is that my pennant pattern is really just a sideways flag - in which case price should reverse and fall back to 7500.

In short there is no clear picture and that's one of the reasons I'm still saying this is a risky time to have one's delicate white posterior exposed.

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Greynomad99 said:
Something else I forgot to mention is that the XAO has broken out of a pennant pattern my blogs have mentioned. Theory suggests that if price can confidently move above the resistance level it currently has its nose above then targets of 8180, 8350 and 8500. My best guess would see a rally to maybe 8400. The other possibility is that my pennant pattern is really just a sideways flag - in which case price should reverse and fall back to 7500.

In short there is no clear picture and that's one of the reasons I'm still saying this is a risky time to have one's delicate white posterior exposed.

View attachment 135230
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Fully agree,exposing a little bit of my rear end anyway but aware of the risks.we could still see materials carry on a little bit more so good for asx for a couple of weeks.interesting year ahead
 
While we are busy trying to cover our behind, I suspect the younger ones are sticking their heads out, hence the massive rally yesterday? Did we ran ahead yesterday and take a break today? Europe was green last night except SMI, which technically isn't Europe. VIX is down, energy and finance up, 5 green, 6 red in sector watch, SPI down (but could readjust closer to trading time) Interesting day ahead. Iron ore up US3.40
 
Greynomad99 said:
Hi Rabbit - I've had a break in my reports for a couple of weeks as the low trade over the holiday period tends to cloud the accuracy of T/A. Weekly reports will resume this Friday.

I saw PLS as reaching my target of $3.20 last week and I closed out the trade . Possibly, I was a bit premature as it jumped 10% yesterday as investors scramble to get on the Lithium bus - but for now I'm out.

My target was the most conservative of about 3 possibilities I saw and Fridays candle shape suggested a reversal might be possible - but it was probably just reflecting a bit of investor indecision. Reworking my price channel with the advantage of hind sight (a great asset - ask any dog!) it suggests yesterdays close could be the top.

Yesterday PLS' candle closed at its high and that usually means prices could open higher today. After such a strong run up with price well above trend and a big day yesterday, I wouldn't be surprised to see it take a breather. Commsec's indicative open price suggests a 0.28% rise.

Anyone's guess where it goes from here but I'll watch from the sidelines as the price activity of the past few days has been a bit nutty and it could all evaporate as traders return from their New Year break. The alternative is that the hype over Lithium has developed a life of its own and price will rise further before inevitably falling back.

I chose to take profit but whether you do that or strap in for the ride is one the Rabbit might need to mull over while munching on a carrot.

Good luck for 2022.

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Hi GN, Thks for the reply. Just sharing not bragging. I entered at 2.60 (part of the kitchen restoration money, instead of leaving in the bank)
Had been in 2 minds to hold till 100% profit but due to the trembling crash market news, I have been trying to off load at High near closing time, no luck, too far off the target price.
Decided last night for today, to off load at 3.60 to 3.80 to retrieve my capital n remainder as FREEHOLD.
This stock has to be one of my best ever profit since yrs of playing the market game, 10k or more $ profit is mind blogging.
On the other hand, never have I dump such a big pot in a speculative stock.
Playing safe on my part, the other half won't be happy if I loss that new Kitchen money.
 
qldfrog said:
Fully agree,exposing a little bit of my rear end anyway but aware of the risks.we could still see materials carry on a little bit more so good for asx for a couple of weeks.interesting year ahead
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Greynomad99 said:
Something else I forgot to mention is that the XAO has broken out of a pennant pattern my blogs have mentioned. Theory suggests that if price can confidently move above the resistance level it currently has its nose above then targets of 8180, 8350 and 8500. My best guess would see a rally to maybe 8400. The other possibility is that my pennant pattern is really just a sideways flag - in which case price should reverse and fall back to 7500.

In short there is no clear picture and that's one of the reasons I'm still saying this is a risky time to have one's delicate white posterior exposed.

View attachment 135230
Click to expand...
My guess 8500 n I will start to run n hide all my loot. Fingers cross, keeping a wide open eyes on today's Market.
 
Well the Silly Season is done and dusted for another week. The ASX has continued to go nowhere, despite a tumultuous week. My blog https://sharecharting.com.au/blog-example gives my thoughts re the XAO and some potential moves it can make. I've also listed 3 new stocks to my Stocks to Watch page, all of which show some potentially great trades.
Good luck for 2022.
 
Re my last post. Some may notice that while I say I don't use indicators, two (CCI and MFI) are appearing on some of my recent charts. I was interested in some by Dr Bourse regarding the use of these two indicators in tandem for a guide when to buy and sell. My research so far tells me Dr B's comments are valid, but whether these indicators can help my trading or not, is yet to be determined. Never too old to learn they say.
 
Greynomad99 said:
Well the Silly Season is done and dusted for another week. The ASX has continued to go nowhere, despite a tumultuous week. My blog https://sharecharting.com.au/blog-example gives my thoughts re the XAO and some potential moves it can make. I've also listed 3 new stocks to my Stocks to Watch page, all of which show some potentially great trades.
Good luck for 2022.
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I hold 2 out of your 4 picks..not bad.
 
Another week, another dollar - well, perhaps we need to put brackets around that dollar given the XAO pull back. My blog this week again looks at the ongoing (but going nowhere - XAO). Stock picks are difficult in this market. ADO, which I added last week was significantly up but 2 other existing picks fell back by a similar amount.
 
With the Nasdaq in a formal correction (and about half way to a bear market) and the S&P not far behind, it isn't looking good. As my blog this week says I'm still favouring a short rally but the chances have reduced a fair bit given this week's bearish overtones. My WES and CSL trades have both broken trend and are heading for the chopping block on Monday. Next week could be a good time to stop watching the market and take up needlework! Despite my negativity the market hasn't done anything unexpected - it has just repeated what it has been doing for several months - but sooner or later it must break up or down.
Good luck to all next week

 
Greynomad99 said:
With the Nasdaq in a formal correction (and about half way to a bear market) and the S&P not far behind, it isn't looking good.
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Or, if you've been holding cash, it's hunting season. But maybe not yet, IMO. Market could bounce from this support level, but with such a sell-off, it looks tenuous. But, we've seen this many times over the past several months and the XAO has miraculously held up and bounced to remain in the top of the long term range. History says this can only go on for so long. Or, a new range is set I suppose.
 
i won't be buying your WES on Monday ( i am looking for a $3x handle ) to add more

i am looking ( at what to buy ) but am not terribly optimistic , maybe i will do better at the end of the reporting season
 
Not many words (well not that can be used on a public forum!) describe last week's market carnage. My blog this week looks at whether Thursday's low was the bottom of our correction. It could be, but that roughly 11% level we achieved has been known to see a Dead Cat bounce before further falls. Any firm predictions at this point would be pure speculation.

 
Greynomad99 said:
Not many words (well not that can be used on a public forum!) describe last week's market carnage. My blog this week looks at whether Thursday's low was the bottom of our correction. It could be, but that roughly 11% level we achieved has been known to see a Dead Cat bounce before further falls. Any firm predictions at this point would be pure speculation.

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Exactly but do not underestimate human stupidity and greed, or the power of Feds all over the world
 
After a pleasant week travelling and getting back behind the camera, I've returned to the real world (for a little while, anyway).
Over the past couple of weeks I've bought back into a few trades (after selling out during the correction) but am sticking mainly with larger cap stocks that represent (in my opinion) good long term holds and better security if it does all hit the fan again. I'm also keeping clear of tech stocks given they are more likely to be impacted by concerns over rising rates.
I have found the time to update my analysis on all my Stocks to Watch for those that are interested.
With reporting season upon us and inflation etc worrying markets I'm not expecting big things next week - just more volatility (3 steps forward and 2 back).
 
actually i AM expecting big things this week ( but they may not be happy ones )

i noticed a few 'soft ' reports last week that the market took as positives , and considering the front end of reporting season is traditionally the best part i must wonder what the general market is expecting , i expect more bluster and spin from some 'blue-chips '

i will be watching for more pressure on gold-miners ( which hopefully i can add cheaper )

but there maybe some bright lights among the mid-caps

take care
 
Again the market has drifted sideways while showing a fair bit of volatility. Apart from gold looking like it might be starting a run there's not much to report this week. BRB looks like it has the potential to move up significantly.
I'm going to try and find the time to make a video about how I quickly scan stocks to find potential trades. Assuming I get around to this I'll post a link. Meanwhile, my weekly blog is out.

 
"Are we enjoying ourselves yet?" comes to mind.
In this market with profit reporting, inflation and Ukraine in the mix, anything is possible. It has reopened the potential of a bear market and this remains a time to sit on one's hands and watch the stop losses. Anyone buying the dip in this market has bigger underwear and/or intestinal fortitude than I possess! But good luck to them anyway.
If I had to guess (and that's all it is), I'm expecting prices are more likely to recover somewhat next week. The power of positive thought maybe!

My blog for the week is here - https://sharecharting.com.au/blog-example
 

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