Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Greynomad99 Weekly ASX review

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DrBourse said:
Hi Rabbit,

Last looked at BHP 21/8/21, their IV was $44.30 to $55.23, Margins of Safety were Very Good, Ratio’s were also Very Good, BUT because BHP’s SP ($47.69) is above the Lower IV, it is not a Buy for me ATM. I would like to see $40 or lower.
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Last looked at NST 21/8/21, their IV was $7.39 to $8.83, Margins of Safety were Very Good, Ratio’s were also Very Good, BUT because NST’s SP ($10.80) is way above the Lower IV, it is not a Buy for me ATM. I would like to see $8.30 or lower.
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The following is part of my current Analysis Spreadsheet.
View attachment 139064
The following are some of the better stocks atm IMO.
View attachment 139065

Cheers M8.
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Good luck trying to fish NST for $8.30 or lower (Gold would need to crash imo & this ain't going to happen anytime soon)
 
crash or suppression ??

when a the market crashes the normal trend is a rush to cash ( preferably US dollars if that is where your debt is denominated )

HOWEVER there is a concerted effort to make the US dollar seem strong , , the unthinkable has happened several times in recent years
 
I recalled few years ago, was at a party n one of the financial guys was asking, can anyone predicts A$ will be at par $1 with US. I boldly answer yes n it did hit that bull's eye. So never say never.
 
The recent break above resistance made by the XAO suggests to me that there is a good chance the current rally might continue and 8,000 is a possible top - with perhaps a few steps backwards along the way. Not a bad week and like the XAO my own portfolio is pretty much recovered all the losses from the recent correction. Catch my bog here - https://sharecharting.com.au/blog-example
 
Telamelo said:
Good luck trying to fish NST for $8.30 or lower (Gold would need to crash imo & this ain't going to happen anytime soon)
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There is a possible price channel in play with NST and if so you might get lucky around $8.70 down the track but if price rises to close confidently above $11 I'd see prices going the other way - to around $13.70. If I had to guess, I'd go for higher rather than lower prices.
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Greynomad99 said:
No great revelations in this weeks blog which discusses the fear of missing out (FOMO) with hot stocks like CXO and LKE.

May the Force (the current rally) be with you.
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Once again Thank you for your weekly posting. In my situation, I agree with your comments re the 2 new stocks. With a lot of recent turbulence either domestically or Globally, I have no interest in trying to spend time investigating or studying new kids on the block, so to speak. Happy enough to keep what I have floating n not standing on sinking ground. Only my opinion or ramblings on the following stocks...
RRL will never be the same, may need years to reach the bar.
PLS so far the price is slowly creeping up again. Will it hit $4...maybe..but am happy to exit if it hits 3.80. My last entry at 3.60 thinking it will hit the 4 mark. It went down with 2 to 4 bad hiccup days. Fingers cross hiccups are over. Still unable to relax yet.
BHP...Thank goodness didn't jump ship when those stormy few days hit me...would really be a loser now. Luck was with me, brace myself with a strong heart n looking good now...greedy for more profit...keep pushing my luck.
BRN...is my sorrow...drowning myself with bottles of Red n Rum...
Will Monday be good day...it should be.
 
well logic suggests higher rates MUST come , but then we had the Tamper Tantrum back a few years and MAYBE that rise isn't a certainty

we have a 'winner-picking ' interventionist , bond AND asset buying Fed , can they tighten without sending the balance sheet to zero ( in the bad way aka the assets are worth nothing because nobody is buying anything )

i strongly suspect the Fed is securely stapled to the dart-board singing and wiggling as best it can , remember a consortium of private ( and listed ) banks own most Central Banks if those bank stocks go to zero as well as their assets , they are as broke as the average retiree
 
Since the market started to become a little murky several months ago I have steadily moved to a diversified and (in my opinion) defensive position. Defensive is good at the moment, seeing performance generally better than the larger market, but it is pretty boring just sitting and watching trades inch higher (better than lower I guess!).
This week my blog looks at Gold which seems to have finally taken off.
 
RRL did indeed "close confidently" above $2.35, I'm hoping it will run up to $3 ish, as you alluded to in your blog.
 
Good morning. Thought I will jump in first before your posting. Friday DJ had a big fall and our market was down too. I fear what will hit us on Tuesday. Had just revised my Outstanding Buy prices. Have an extra cash 25K on standby to hop on BHP, looking in between $40 -$44.
Any wise thought to which train but not buses on the bumpy road for your holidays should you have this windfall?
 
Rabbithop said:
Good morning. Thought I will jump in first before your posting. Friday DJ had a big fall and our market was down too. I fear what will hit us on Tuesday. Had just revised my Outstanding Buy prices. Have an extra cash 25K on standby to hop on BHP, looking in between $40 -$44.
Any wise thought to which train but not buses on the bumpy road for your holidays should you have this windfall?
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See my blog later today but I think COH, BPT and FLT are good prospects in the current climate. As a medium term trader I've never been a great fan of BHP for a range of reasons but with the Covid downturn in Chinese steel production and a potential hit to their economy due to Xi's dogged determination to beat Covid (my money is on the virus) - I'd be avoiding anything that has strong reliance on Chinese demand or supply in the short term.
 
Here's my blog for this week - https://sharecharting.com.au/blog-example

Re Rabbithop's comments regarding BHP, I had a quick look at their chart and despite the big drop Friday, I don't see anything in that chart that says price won't keep heading up towards $60. Now, nothing goes up forever but as long as price can hold above that black rising trendline beneath recent prices, then that remains a potential target. Their is a band of resistance around $53 - $54 which turned price down before and that is something to look out for - ie price could continue to drift lower. Even if price does power on and get above $54 the charts suggest at best price might only have another 10% in it before topping out. So the decision for the BHP tragics is to see the current price as a low and buy on the speculation it will recover and move up, or wait an see that it is moving up and risk missing out on some potential gain. Damned if you do and damned if you don't.
My personal view is that I wouldn't buy BHP at the moment because of my concerns over China's short term economic outlook given their low vaccination rates and a misguided view they can keep the virus out of China when it is endemic to the rest of the world. There are already reports of orders for iron ore slowing and that certainly isn't something likely to drive up the price of BHP, RIO, FMG etc
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given the WPL demerger deal as described , i won't be adding more above $28 ( and more likely less ) i was ALMOST tempted to jump in ( heavily ) before the latest details were released

one howitzer shell dodged ( bl**dy lucky again )

also when is the Vale JV coming back to full production , that will be a big influence on prices
 
regarding the virus situation in China , i am starting to wonder if China is actually using this to reduce/ban exports ( and strangle imports )

maybe i have mixed with too many devious people , but i am sensing a deceased rodent .
 
divs4ever said:
regarding the virus situation in China , i am starting to wonder if China is actually using this to reduce/ban exports ( and strangle imports )

maybe i have mixed with too many devious people , but i am sensing a deceased rodent .
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Why would Xi shoot himself in the foot by crippling the economy? There was an article in the Age a few days ago that suggested the millions he's locked down are getting restless. All authoritarian governments seem to eventually collapse once their constituents see them for what they are (or like Hitler and maybe Putin if he makes a move on a NATO member, they start to believe they can walk on water and push things beyond their ability to control). It makes sense that such a huge population that hasn't been impacted by Covid to date would be largely unvaccinated and as we know now you don't need 2 shots but perhaps 4 or more to keep one step ahead of the virus - a big job in China. The Age article suggested a likely 2 million death toll which sounds huge (and it probably is if you are one of the 2 million) but its still a tiny percentage of China's population (about .15% I think).
 
Greynomad99 said:
Why would Xi shoot himself in the foot by crippling the economy? There was an article in the Age a few days ago that suggested the millions he's locked down are getting restless. All authoritarian governments seem to eventually collapse once their constituents see them for what they are (or like Hitler and maybe Putin if he makes a move on a NATO member, they start to believe they can walk on water and push things beyond their ability to control). It makes sense that such a huge population that hasn't been impacted by Covid to date would be largely unvaccinated and as we know now you don't need 2 shots but perhaps 4 or more to keep one step ahead of the virus - a big job in China. The Age article suggested a likely 2 million death toll which sounds huge (and it probably is if you are one of the 2 million) but its still a tiny percentage of China's population (about .15% I think).
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I am not saying who is right or wrong but will speak the truth as far as I understand. Agreed that All authoritarian government will eventually collapse however with a larger population n vast land, the country or family needs a strong leader to lead and take charge otherwise it stays stagnant. As well as we do agreed that Covid to date requires 2 to 4 or more future shots to combat mutation variants as like flu. To date there are still millions of unvaccinated citizens that lives in remote villages all over the country and may even unheard of Covid. These people lives peacefully on their land and have nothing to do with city lights money chasers. This gives me another reason to voice that COAL is always needed in China, India and other parts of South East Asia, truely uncomprehend by Developed Western Countries who wants to lead the World in Climate Change. Sounds good to the ears but evil to the innocent remote villagers that only know how to live a simple life.
 
Greynomad99 said:
Why would Xi shoot himself in the foot by crippling the economy? There was an article in the Age a few days ago that suggested the millions he's locked down are getting restless. All authoritarian governments seem to eventually collapse once their constituents see them for what they are (or like Hitler and maybe Putin if he makes a move on a NATO member, they start to believe they can walk on water and push things beyond their ability to control). It makes sense that such a huge population that hasn't been impacted by Covid to date would be largely unvaccinated and as we know now you don't need 2 shots but perhaps 4 or more to keep one step ahead of the virus - a big job in China. The Age article suggested a likely 2 million death toll which sounds huge (and it probably is if you are one of the 2 million) but its still a tiny percentage of China's population (about .15% I think).
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has he ( shot himself in the foot ) ??

Chinese media used to be discounted automatically as propaganda but THIS time it is talking about something the mainstream narrative love ( virus phobia and draconian lock-downs, and citizens dying )

now the news i consume about China ( probably edited in Taiwan ) has seriously focused on the suicides this time ( are they all real , everyone else seems to fake covid deaths , why not China ??)

it would be a nice distraction while China accelerates it's cold war against NATO

China still needs to cool it's economy a little more ( imo ) ,have a virus scare , and the Chinese stock market hasn't imploded ( and a LOT of Chinese goods are now being traded outside the Petro-dollar ) , China can cool and not frighten the markets ( until it wants to )

the local MSM wants this to be true , ( it fits several narratives beautifully ) but is it true ( or just partly true )

please remember Xi is particularly resilient he has survived two purge experiences , and risen to be the front-man of the Chinese regime
 

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