Greynomad99 Weekly ASX review

[Greynomad99]

I'm off to sit by a mountain stream for a few days as I have a feeling it may be more relaxing than watching the market next week.

My blog is here: https://sharecharting.com.au/blog-example

 

[Sean K]

I'm off to sit by a mountain stream for a few days as I have a feeling it may be more relaxing than watching the market next week.

My blog is here: https://sharecharting.com.au/blog-example

One of the best investment decisions an investor can make is to sit by a mountain stream.

 

[Rabbithop]

Relax n Enjoy your view GN.
Luckily didn't pick up BHP on Fri's drop. Waiting to see what Mon brings. Wld it drop to $30? A big ask.
Sold 1 property, paid off 2 mortgages, moving into 1 that's bigger block n nearer to all transport, put away 200k for CGT n still left with some gas in the tank to play. Just waiting for that cliff fall.

 

[Greynomad99]

I haven't had much to say in my blogs for the past couple of weeks as I've been taking some time off for post-lockdown travel. This week I've managed to say a bit about the XAO and its possible future direction. I've also updated my Stocks to Watch and changed the way I list them.

Blog - Robert Norman Share Charting

 

[Greynomad99]

Relax n Enjoy your view GN.
Luckily didn't pick up BHP on Fri's drop. Waiting to see what Mon brings. Wld it drop to $30? A big ask.
Sold 1 property, paid off 2 mortgages, moving into 1 that's bigger block n nearer to all transport, put away 200k for CGT n still left with some gas in the tank to play. Just waiting for that cliff fall.

Hi Rabbit - just got back. BHP at $30 ? Yes that is possible, but I'd say it has probably bottomed recently and is more likely to head up to around $60 in the longer term. That said I don't like trading BHP as it is too captive to commodity prices and hard to predict.
Good luck with it.

 

[divs4ever]

*** the market has been falling back, possibly even rolling over into a correction - making chart predictions less reliable. **

hmmm i was thinking a possible retrace before a Xmas rally

am surprised to seem less bearish than you , for a change

but i have some cash reserves , you being correct is unlikely to be my worst possible outcome

i was buying BHP as a core ( too big to fail ) investment but the recent trend of divestments has me cooling on the idea of adding more on either side of the oil/gas divestment ( i might slot it into the sit and watch file )

cheers and good luck

 

[Rabbithop]

Hi Rabbit - just got back. BHP at $30 ? Yes that is possible, but I'd say it has probably bottomed recently and is more likely to head up to around $60 in the longer term. That said I don't like trading BHP as it is too captive to commodity prices and hard to predict.
Good luck wit

Hi Rabbit - just got back. BHP at $30 ? Yes that is possible, but I'd say it has probably bottomed recently and is more likely to head up to around $60 in the longer term. That said I don't like trading BHP as it is too captive to commodity prices and hard to predict.
Good luck with it.
Good evening GN, welcome back from your break. Won't be surprise if there is another lock down due to Omercon.
I sold my BHP holding on Fri at $40.85 n she went further up before dropping back at end of day. So for now, I am going to sit on the fence.

 

[Rabbithop]

*** the market has been falling back, possibly even rolling over into a correction - making chart predictions less reliable. **

hmmm i was thinking a possible retrace before a Xmas rally

am surprised to seem less bearish than you , for a change

but i have some cash reserves , you being correct is unlikely to be my worst possible outcome

i was buying BHP as a core ( too big to fail ) investment but the recent trend of divestments has me cooling on the idea of adding more on either side of the oil/gas divestment ( i might slot it into the sit and watch file )

cheers and good luck

My guess, market falling on Monday. Looking at GN's BHP chart/ graph.....$24 low...what a reversal.

 

[divs4ever]

falling , i can agree with , but i suspect the XJO will be supported at 7000 points

whether that is retail buying the big 4 banks ahead of Xmas ( most seem to think of the big 4 as div. plays/safe-havens ) or a different theme of pre-Xmas buying ( say the retail sector as an example )

although i am cooling on BHP i am not cold on them , but would really like to see how the oil/gas spin-off pans out , it MIGHT be the making of WPL or an expansion too far for them

i am not a huge WPL fan ( but do hold some )

but with BHP and the trend towards a shrunken company i will be watching to see if the board shrinks in parallel

to me the commodity sector ( in many companies ) looks the place to be , good P/Es , some growth potential , and low div. yields which will deter some investors who are just chasing returns BUT is BHP one of those companies

BHP has good P/E but shrinking company syndrome .. yes the S32 demerger made sense but the shrinking didn't stop at S32

compare that with FMG has a good P/E but big ( albeit ambitious ) growth plans

now IF ( XJO = ) 7000 points is convincingly broken that could be a whole new ball of wax depending on where stop-losses are set , my buddy who has a margin loan , is not that comfortably outside of buffer but has ( last i heard ) a reasonable amount of BEAR and BBOZ as a hedge so a 250 point drop might be uncomfortable , but not unbearable ( for him ) ( i hold a few BBUS deeply underwater for them to break even i would almost need a market collapse , but i have no margin loan , so won't be a forced seller even at 4000 points

 

[Sean K]

now IF ( XJO = ) 7000 points is convincingly broken that could be a whole new ball of wax depending on where stop-losses are set , my buddy who has a margin loan , is not that comfortably outside of buffer but has ( last i heard ) a reasonable amount of BEAR and BBOZ as a hedge so a 250 point drop might be uncomfortable , but not unbearable ( for him ) ( i hold a few BBUS deeply underwater for them to break even i would almost need a market collapse , but i have no margin loan , so won't be a forced seller even at 4000 points

Thanks for the BB references. I might need these shortly.

 

[divs4ever]

Thanks for the BB references. I might need these shortly.

just realize they are best as a short-term ( a few months or LESS ) hold

i had done well with them earlier but the one parcel , well that went badly the other way

 

[Rabbithop]

falling , i can agree with , but i suspect the XJO will be supported at 7000 points

whether that is retail buying the big 4 banks ahead of Xmas ( most seem to think of the big 4 as div. plays/safe-havens ) or a different theme of pre-Xmas buying ( say the retail sector as an example )

although i am cooling on BHP i am not cold on them , but would really like to see how the oil/gas spin-off pans out , it MIGHT be the making of WPL or an expansion too far for them

i am not a huge WPL fan ( but do hold some )

but with BHP and the trend towards a shrunken company i will be watching to see if the board shrinks in parallel

to me the commodity sector ( in many companies ) looks the place to be , good P/Es , some growth potential , and low div. yields which will deter some investors who are just chasing returns BUT is BHP one of those companies

BHP has good P/E but shrinking company syndrome .. yes the S32 demerger made sense but the shrinking didn't stop at S32

compare that with FMG has a good P/E but big ( albeit ambitious ) growth plans

now IF ( XJO = ) 7000 points is convincingly broken that could be a whole new ball of wax depending on where stop-losses are set , my buddy who has a margin loan , is not that comfortably outside of buffer but has ( last i heard ) a reasonable amount of BEAR and BBOZ as a hedge so a 250 point drop might be uncomfortable , but not unbearable ( for him ) ( i hold a few BBUS deeply underwater for them to break even i would almost need a market collapse , but i have no margin loan , so won't be a forced seller even at 4000 points

Bear n BBOZ had been on the playground of another Forum since Jan this year..
Next, October fear.
In the end, it didn't eventuate n like I mentioned before, the Usual Market Crash in Oct may be on the look out for a new month to happen and it's December now. Best, I will sit on the fence n watch the race to the hill or down the cliff?

 

[divs4ever]

i have done well with them in the past , but that one parcel .. well i have held that one too long

in hindsight i should have dumped quicker , but time will tell

the question is how long can they kick the debt can down the road , or will all that stalling not prevent the inevitable ( the small players will be crushed , and the heavyweights will be bailed out , just like in the GFC ) because the masses have lost confidence in the Fed and the currencies

 

[Greynomad99]

Hi - another week of hard to predict trading - but with a couple of strong green days and 3 going nowhere days. Still the XAO closed above last week and in the upper half of its range for the week - so we might manage to wobble higher next week. 7800 remains a line in the sand (albeit a fairly blurry line with resistance covering a range of 7,800 to 7,900). If the XAO get's above that we are still looking good for a Santa Rally (unless he catches Omicron!).
I did a full scan of the ASX200 this week and noticed that the majority of stocks see to have 'brewers droop' and are in downtrends rather than uptrends. That doesn't auger well for the short term outlook but as traders we'll just have to dig a little deeper for the gold (and with gold on a tear that might be an apt comment!)
Happy trading.

PS: I realised my Stocks to Watch had a technical glitch last week and didn't update on my web page. Hopefully this week's report is OK.

Blog - Robert Norman Share Charting

 

[Greynomad99]

The way this market behaves at the moment I think forgetting about it and concentrating on Xmas festivities might be a better option. While a rally remains possible the market has been in a general decline for nearly 5 months - and when the market is falling its not a time to trade. Yes, you can get lucky - but the odds are against you. In my blog this week I've suggested FMG's run up might be nearing its end and added a couple of hopefuls to my Stocks to Watch

Blog - Robert Norman Share Charting

 

[Sean K]

The way this market behaves at the moment I think forgetting about it and concentrating on Xmas festivities might be a better option. While a rally remains possible the market has been in a general decline for nearly 5 months - and when the market is falling its not a time to trade. Yes, you can get lucky - but the odds are against you. In my blog this week I've suggested FMG's run up might be nearing its end and added a couple of hopefuls to my Stocks to Watch

Blog - Robert Norman Share Charting

I agree for long term buy and holders.

No strategy for trading/investing/hedging a down trend?

 

[divs4ever]

will be looking to cherry-pick 'fair-value ' shares at this time of year they are more likely to be small caps and probably thinly traded

but have no current plans to 'back-up the truck ' on anything ( big or small )

but Xmas ( and the two weeks after ) shopping has be OK for me in the last 10 years , but i like smaller parcels so don't need a lot of liquidity

 

[Greynomad99]

I agree for long term buy and holders.

No strategy for trading/investing/hedging a down trend?

I've dabbled with short trades and ETF's like Betashares short funds but never had much success so prefer to sit and wait for the sun to come out. Actually, saying the market is in a downtrend wasn't strictly correct. The XAO has been making ever lower peaks on the weekly so that look like a downtrend but there is a level of support that means the troughs on the weekly haven't been heading lower as well. It's a large pennant pattern in my book that we should eventually break up out of and, until it does, I suspect overall positive outcomes from trading will be marginal at best.

 

[Rabbithop]

Hi - another week of hard to predict trading - but with a couple of strong green days and 3 going nowhere days. Still the XAO closed above last week and in the upper half of its range for the week - so we might manage to wobble higher next week. 7800 remains a line in the sand (albeit a fairly blurry line with resistance covering a range of 7,800 to 7,900). If the XAO get's above that we are still looking good for a Santa Rally (unless he catches Omicron!).
I did a full scan of the ASX200 this week and noticed that the majority of stocks see to have 'brewers droop' and are in downtrends rather than uptrends. That doesn't auger well for the short term outlook but as traders we'll just have to dig a little deeper for the gold (and with gold on a tear that might be an apt comment!)
Happy trading.

PS: I realised my Stocks to Watch had a technical glitch last week and didn't update on my web page. Hopefully this week's report is OK.

Blog - Robert Norman Share Charting

Wishing you A Happy, Healthy n Prosperous 2022. Any chance of you doing an update on your Stock Commentary? I am keen on PLS on your list. How high will it go. Like to see if it could hit a high of 3.70, 3.80 even though there was a drop on Friday.

 

[Greynomad99]

Wishing you A Happy, Healthy n Prosperous 2022. Any chance of you doing an update on your Stock Commentary? I am keen on PLS on your list. How high will it go. Like to see if it could hit a high of 3.70, 3.80 even though there was a drop on Friday.

Hi Rabbit - I've had a break in my reports for a couple of weeks as the low trade over the holiday period tends to cloud the accuracy of T/A. Weekly reports will resume this Friday.

I saw PLS as reaching my target of $3.20 last week and I closed out the trade . Possibly, I was a bit premature as it jumped 10% yesterday as investors scramble to get on the Lithium bus - but for now I'm out.

My target was the most conservative of about 3 possibilities I saw and Fridays candle shape suggested a reversal might be possible - but it was probably just reflecting a bit of investor indecision. Reworking my price channel with the advantage of hind sight (a great asset - ask any dog!) it suggests yesterdays close could be the top.

Yesterday PLS' candle closed at its high and that usually means prices could open higher today. After such a strong run up with price well above trend and a big day yesterday, I wouldn't be surprised to see it take a breather. Commsec's indicative open price suggests a 0.28% rise.

Anyone's guess where it goes from here but I'll watch from the sidelines as the price activity of the past few days has been a bit nutty and it could all evaporate as traders return from their New Year break. The alternative is that the hype over Lithium has developed a life of its own and price will rise further before inevitably falling back.

I chose to take profit but whether you do that or strap in for the ride is one the Rabbit might need to mull over while munching on a carrot.

Good luck for 2022.