Greynomad99 Weekly ASX review

[DrBourse]

Hi GN,
Good to see you back here again - As usual we are on the same page - I gave up on trading a few months ago, spending the next few mths cruising the South Pacific.
I'm already in "God's Waiting Room", so, just in case I fall orfa the perch sooner than planned, I've gotta spend most of what the ASX gave me in the past few years, come to think of it I should spend a bit more on the holidays and just put up with a Cardboard Box.
Cheers M8

 

[divs4ever]

Popped in to see what is happening here but the market still seems a mess. I've cashed out all my shares as buying a house in the country. Selling in Melbourne and will put those funds back into the share market if I can get comfortable with the world economic outlook. Still way too much volatility for me at the moment, but (as it always does) time will solve most issues. I hope those still trying their luck in this market are having more winners than losers.

yep i agree the market is a mess , but which country ( only half-joking about that )

i still need market exposure , but winners and losers is about how you measure success

SOL is up on share price and divs increase most years but is that beating inflation

in others the share price is flat or battered but participation in the DRP means that holding is bulking up ( extra shares in the holding )

good luck waiting for clarity ( in the markets/economy ) at least you have a new home to improve outside of the markets ( don't neglect the vegie garden )


cheers

 

[rcw1]

yep i agree the market is a mess , but which country ( only half-joking about that )

i still need market exposure , but winners and losers is about how you measure success

SOL is up on share price and divs increase most years but is that beating inflation

in others the share price is flat or battered but participation in the DRP means that holding is bulking up ( extra shares in the holding )

good luck waiting for clarity ( in the markets/economy ) at least you have a new home to improve outside of the markets ( don't neglect the vegie garden )


cheers

Good evening divs4ever
rcw1 don't get much opportunity for DRP. The bloody shares keep getting sold, earn or otherwise...
Have a very nice night.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[divs4ever]

Good evening divs4ever
rcw1 don't get much opportunity for DRP. The bloody shares keep getting sold, earn or otherwise...
Have a very nice night.

Kind regards
rcw1

several stocks bought between 2011 and 2014 were bought in preference to a similar rival because they offered a DRP scheme

take-overs have been a hazard for me

cheers

 

[Rabbithop]

Hi GN,
Good to see you back here again - As usual we are on the same page - I gave up on trading a few months ago, spending the next few mths cruising the South Pacific.
I'm already in "God's Waiting Room", so, just in case I fall orfa the perch sooner than planned, I've gotta spend most of what the ASX gave me in the past few years, come to think of it I should spend a bit more on the holidays and just put up with a Cardboard Box.
Cheers M8

Good morning Dr. Your post gave me a skip heartbeat. "God's Wsiting Room"
I hope its only a saying n no other serious meaning to it.
Great that you n some other pple started to travel n enjoy life. I had my pport renewed n still waiting for the right moment to commit in overseas travel.

 

[DrBourse]

Hi GN,.......

Not sure if you are 'back on deck yet', so I tried your old web site......
Got the following message ;-.......

Have you been 'Hi Jacked'......
Or do I have probs with my PC?....Dunno....
Just thought I'd better let you know what I encountered....
DrB

 

[divs4ever]

Hi GN,.......

Not sure if you are 'back on deck yet', so I tried your old web site......
Got the following message ;-.......
View attachment 153902
Have you been 'Hi Jacked'......
Or do I have probs with my PC?....Dunno....
Just thought I'd better let you know what I encountered....
DrB

yep ! me too
normally that is your ( and mine ) browser being picky ( i normally use a different browser to most )

but it also could be an issue with out-dated security certificates ( or the website/server has some security issues )

cheers !

 

[divs4ever]

This server could not prove that it is sharecharting.com.au; its security certificate is from aantaria.com.au. This may be caused by a misconfiguration or an attacker intercepting your connection.

Proceed to sharecharting.com.au (unsafe)

proceeding further

Not Found​

The requested URL was not found on this server.

Additionally, a 404 Not Found error was encountered while trying to use an ErrorDocument to handle the request.

however some older blogs are available through

https://sharecharting.com.au/stock-commentary-blog/363-stocktowatch3

Wayback Machine

web.archive.org

 

[DrBourse]

OK thnx Div

 

[divs4ever]

hopefully GN is happily enjoying his retirement at some delightful location ( as his username would imply )

( using up that super before a government decides to over-tax it )

 

[farmerge]

hopefully GN is happily enjoying his retirement at some delightful location ( as his username would imply )

( using up that super before a government decides to over-tax it )

I think I saw something from the esteemed GN a few days ago, but the grey matter isn't functioning too well, the recall won't work.

 

[Rabbithop]

I think I saw something from the esteemed GN a few days ago, but the grey matter isn't functioning too well, the recall won't work.

Likely, GN is still busy after his house moved.

 

[Greynomad99]

Hi - I deleted both my share charting and photography web sites. While a few people followed both, the time and cost to keep them updated wasn't justifiable and with my move from Melbourne to central Victoria I felt it was time to more fully embrace retirement. I still have an interest in both. I'm still travelling, writing and backing those articles with photos - but less regularly (and only when the weather is ideal). I've got a small bucket of money from the sale of our Melbourne home and I'm planning to put half of that into shares and half into contributory mortgages. I've mentioned the latter before but believe they are a really safe way to invest providing you are happy with a return of about 6% - 7%. I only invest in metro residential properties where the borrowers debt is less than 65% of the properties value. Investments are a number at $50K each to spread what risk there is. For example, I took one yesterday which is only 3 months at 8.99% where the LVR is only about 30%. While the short term isn't ideal it allows me to spread maturities so I haven't got all the loans falling due at the same time. The vast majority of contributory mortgages are for a term of 12 months. For those unsure what a contrib mortgage is, its an investment in the mortgage over just 1 property, whereas a pooled mortgage is an investment in all the mortgages (the pool) of the Fund. There are plusses and minuses in both but I like to know exactly what security backs my investment - and contrib mortgages give me that.
As for shares, I did a full scan of the ASX 200 a week ago and have started to build a portfolio of generally high market cap companies that pass my standard charting buy test - coming off a low and making a new uptrend for at least 3 months that breaks a prior downtrend; generally show a long term trend of rising prices; in a range of sectors; and not in an industry I regard as challenged in these recessionary times. For example I wouldn't invest in Premier Investments, despite it ticking all the other boxes, given it is reliant on consumer discretionary expenditure. Same goes for JB HiFi, Harvey Norman etc (although the latter is one I wouldn't touch due to Harvey running it like his personal fiefdom.
Anyway the scan was interesting. No banks passed muster but there are a large number of companies making new uptrends. I only want about 12 - 15 holdings max and I'll build those by taking an initial investment and then topping it up once that has risen 3%. Stop loss is a two week break of uptrend usually.
I've recently bought into (or topped up) ALU, CHN, COL, CSL, FPH, LYC, and WES. While I sold out of most of my holdings a month or two ago to assist with the costs of setting up our new home prior to the old one settling (getting bridging finance proved to be really problematic despite almost a million dollars difference between what we sold and bought - we didn't have a mortgage on the sold property and if you don't have an existing mortgage none of the major banks will look at it because there isn't enough fat in a short term bridging loan for the greedy bastards).
I still held PLS and CXO although both are in the red. I continue to hang onto them because I think they will recover (some charting logic in this but mainly a belief that the EV demand will drive them higher). Have a buy out for Ampol and looking as BSL, CSR, DXS, GMG, GPT and MQG. Re that latter I said none of the big banks did it for me - but I don't regard MQG as a traditional bank.
Where do I see the market going? The XAO is making higher troughs and peaks on the weekly and in a strong uptrend. I'd like to think (despite the challenging times) that it could now rally to around 8000 and long term trend since 2008 suggests a peak of 9000 in 2024 is likely before the next fall into the abyss. Candles suggest the XAO's 4 week losing streak may be turning and the coming week might see the start of another short rally.
Good wishes to all.

 

[qldfrog]

Hi - I deleted both my share charting and photography web sites. While a few people followed both, the time and cost to keep them updated wasn't justifiable and with my move from Melbourne to central Victoria I felt it was time to more fully embrace retirement. I still have an interest in both. I'm still travelling, writing and backing those articles with photos - but less regularly (and only when the weather is ideal). I've got a small bucket of money from the sale of our Melbourne home and I'm planning to put half of that into shares and half into contributory mortgages. I've mentioned the latter before but believe they are a really safe way to invest providing you are happy with a return of about 6% - 7%. I only invest in metro residential properties where the borrowers debt is less than 65% of the properties value. Investments are a number at $50K each to spread what risk there is. For example, I took one yesterday which is only 3 months at 8.99% where the LVR is only about 30%. While the short term isn't ideal it allows me to spread maturities so I haven't got all the loans falling due at the same time. The vast majority of contributory mortgages are for a term of 12 months. For those unsure what a contrib mortgage is, its an investment in the mortgage over just 1 property, whereas a pooled mortgage is an investment in all the mortgages (the pool) of the Fund. There are plusses and minuses in both but I like to know exactly what security backs my investment - and contrib mortgages give me that.
As for shares, I did a full scan of the ASX 200 a week ago and have started to build a portfolio of generally high market cap companies that pass my standard charting buy test - coming off a low and making a new uptrend for at least 3 months that breaks a prior downtrend; generally show a long term trend of rising prices; in a range of sectors; and not in an industry I regard as challenged in these recessionary times. For example I wouldn't invest in Premier Investments, despite it ticking all the other boxes, given it is reliant on consumer discretionary expenditure. Same goes for JB HiFi, Harvey Norman etc (although the latter is one I wouldn't touch due to Harvey running it like his personal fiefdom.
Anyway the scan was interesting. No banks passed muster but there are a large number of companies making new uptrends. I only want about 12 - 15 holdings max and I'll build those by taking an initial investment and then topping it up once that has risen 3%. Stop loss is a two week break of uptrend usually.
I've recently bought into (or topped up) ALU, CHN, COL, CSL, FPH, LYC, and WES. While I sold out of most of my holdings a month or two ago to assist with the costs of setting up our new home prior to the old one settling (getting bridging finance proved to be really problematic despite almost a million dollars difference between what we sold and bought - we didn't have a mortgage on the sold property and if you don't have an existing mortgage none of the major banks will look at it because there isn't enough fat in a short term bridging loan for the greedy bastards).
I still held PLS and CXO although both are in the red. I continue to hang onto them because I think they will recover (some charting logic in this but mainly a belief that the EV demand will drive them higher). Have a buy out for Ampol and looking as BSL, CSR, DXS, GMG, GPT and MQG. Re that latter I said none of the big banks did it for me - but I don't regard MQG as a traditional bank.
Where do I see the market going? The XAO is making higher troughs and peaks on the weekly and in a strong uptrend. I'd like to think (despite the challenging times) that it could now rally to around 8000 and long term trend since 2008 suggests a peak of 9000 in 2024 is likely before the next fall into the abyss. Candles suggest the XAO's 4 week losing streak may be turning and the coming week might see the start of another short rally.
Good wishes to all.

Great info
Who do you use to buy these contributory mortgages?
Feel free to DM if you prefer
And BTW I was following your website after you discussed it here.
Was great alternative reading so thank you for your time.
And I understand you stopping theses.i am winding down myself...

 

[Greynomad99]

I've been involved in the management of mortgage funds for many years and one that we sold just as I was retiring has continued on to have over $100M under management. Up until last Xmas I have continued to assist with compliance issues as and when required. The principal of that business which now trades as Millbrook Credit Fund has many years experience in the industry and because of the low risk profile of their contrib mortgages I'm happy to invest with them (they offer pooled and wholesale funds as well, but neither interest me). I aslo use La Trobe as they have a similar range of products but are more heavily into funding small construction (Millbrook does as well), but that's a sector I consider is high risk.
You can see Millbrook's Site here and download a PDS - https://millbrookgroup.com.au/
If you have any detailed queries feel free to post, phone (0428 346 951) or message me. I don't get any financial advantage from passing information to you and I can provide basic/general product advice (but not financial advice) if you want more info on contrib mortgages.
My basic investment rule is to consider metro residential properties that are non-specialised and not in an area subject to climate change risk (flood, fire, sea level rise). The property I took the investment in was in Redcliffe and that has erosion and storm surge issues in places but there is a web site you can check those risks out. I see what the property looks like on Google street view and in some cases you can see the valuation report (La Trobe offer that capacity while Millbrook provide a summary). Basically, I want to make sure the property is readily saleable. I declined two other properties that had multi-million price tags because they both would have had very limited resale market - they both looked like they were owned by total knobs with zero aesthetic appeal (which also suggests some negative thoughts about the borrower's profile!). I've seen lenders struggle to recover a 65% loan on expensive, limited appeal properties after the borrower defaults and uses every trick in the book to defer the inevitable - while interest continues to accumulate at default rates. Millbrook doesn't deal in regulated (consumer home loans) because it is too hard to get possession and sell as the nanny state laws we have would protect Jack the Ripper if he had a regulated loans.
Regards Robert

 

[Rabbithop]

Hi - I deleted both my share charting and photography web sites. While a few people followed both, the time and cost to keep them updated wasn't justifiable and with my move from Melbourne to central Victoria I felt it was time to more fully embrace retirement. I still have an interest in both. I'm still travelling, writing and backing those articles with photos - but less regularly (and only when the weather is ideal). I've got a small bucket of money from the sale of our Melbourne home and I'm planning to put half of that into shares and half into contributory mortgages. I've mentioned the latter before but believe they are a really safe way to invest providing you are happy with a return of about 6% - 7%. I only invest in metro residential properties where the borrowers debt is less than 65% of the properties value. Investments are a number at $50K each to spread what risk there is. For example, I took one yesterday which is only 3 months at 8.99% where the LVR is only about 30%. While the short term isn't ideal it allows me to spread maturities so I haven't got all the loans falling due at the same time. The vast majority of contributory mortgages are for a term of 12 months. For those unsure what a contrib mortgage is, its an investment in the mortgage over just 1 property, whereas a pooled mortgage is an investment in all the mortgages (the pool) of the Fund. There are plusses and minuses in both but I like to know exactly what security backs my investment - and contrib mortgages give me that.
As for shares, I did a full scan of the ASX 200 a week ago and have started to build a portfolio of generally high market cap companies that pass my standard charting buy test - coming off a low and making a new uptrend for at least 3 months that breaks a prior downtrend; generally show a long term trend of rising prices; in a range of sectors; and not in an industry I regard as challenged in these recessionary times. For example I wouldn't invest in Premier Investments, despite it ticking all the other boxes, given it is reliant on consumer discretionary expenditure. Same goes for JB HiFi, Harvey Norman etc (although the latter is one I wouldn't touch due to Harvey running it like his personal fiefdom.
Anyway the scan was interesting. No banks passed muster but there are a large number of companies making new uptrends. I only want about 12 - 15 holdings max and I'll build those by taking an initial investment and then topping it up once that has risen 3%. Stop loss is a two week break of uptrend usually.
I've recently bought into (or topped up) ALU, CHN, COL, CSL, FPH, LYC, and WES. While I sold out of most of my holdings a month or two ago to assist with the costs of setting up our new home prior to the old one settling (getting bridging finance proved to be really problematic despite almost a million dollars difference between what we sold and bought - we didn't have a mortgage on the sold property and if you don't have an existing mortgage none of the major banks will look at it because there isn't enough fat in a short term bridging loan for the greedy bastards).
I still held PLS and CXO although both are in the red. I continue to hang onto them because I think they will recover (some charting logic in this but mainly a belief that the EV demand will drive them higher). Have a buy out for Ampol and looking as BSL, CSR, DXS, GMG, GPT and MQG. Re that latter I said none of the big banks did it for me - but I don't regard MQG as a traditional bank.
Where do I see the market going? The XAO is making higher troughs and peaks on the weekly and in a strong uptrend. I'd like to think (despite the challenging times) that it could now rally to around 8000 and long term trend since 2008 suggests a peak of 9000 in 2024 is likely before the next fall into the abyss. Candles suggest the XAO's 4 week losing streak may be turning and the coming week might see the start of another short rally.
Good wishes to all.

Good day GN n great to be reading your post again.
Thank you for your kindness, unselfishness as well as willingly offering to help us when we need a sounding board.
God Bless.

 

[farmerge]

Hi - I deleted both my share charting and photography web sites. While a few people followed both, the time and cost to keep them updated wasn't justifiable and with my move from Melbourne to central Victoria I felt it was time to more fully embrace retirement. I still have an interest in both. I'm still travelling, writing and backing those articles with photos - but less regularly (and only when the weather is ideal). I've got a small bucket of money from the sale of our Melbourne home and I'm planning to put half of that into shares and half into contributory mortgages. I've mentioned the latter before but believe they are a really safe way to invest providing you are happy with a return of about 6% - 7%. I only invest in metro residential properties where the borrowers debt is less than 65% of the properties value. Investments are a number at $50K each to spread what risk there is. For example, I took one yesterday which is only 3 months at 8.99% where the LVR is only about 30%. While the short term isn't ideal it allows me to spread maturities so I haven't got all the loans falling due at the same time. The vast majority of contributory mortgages are for a term of 12 months. For those unsure what a contrib mortgage is, its an investment in the mortgage over just 1 property, whereas a pooled mortgage is an investment in all the mortgages (the pool) of the Fund. There are plusses and minuses in both but I like to know exactly what security backs my investment - and contrib mortgages give me that.
As for shares, I did a full scan of the ASX 200 a week ago and have started to build a portfolio of generally high market cap companies that pass my standard charting buy test - coming off a low and making a new uptrend for at least 3 months that breaks a prior downtrend; generally show a long term trend of rising prices; in a range of sectors; and not in an industry I regard as challenged in these recessionary times. For example I wouldn't invest in Premier Investments, despite it ticking all the other boxes, given it is reliant on consumer discretionary expenditure. Same goes for JB HiFi, Harvey Norman etc (although the latter is one I wouldn't touch due to Harvey running it like his personal fiefdom.
Anyway the scan was interesting. No banks passed muster but there are a large number of companies making new uptrends. I only want about 12 - 15 holdings max and I'll build those by taking an initial investment and then topping it up once that has risen 3%. Stop loss is a two week break of uptrend usually.
I've recently bought into (or topped up) ALU, CHN, COL, CSL, FPH, LYC, and WES. While I sold out of most of my holdings a month or two ago to assist with the costs of setting up our new home prior to the old one settling (getting bridging finance proved to be really problematic despite almost a million dollars difference between what we sold and bought - we didn't have a mortgage on the sold property and if you don't have an existing mortgage none of the major banks will look at it because there isn't enough fat in a short term bridging loan for the greedy bastards).
I still held PLS and CXO although both are in the red. I continue to hang onto them because I think they will recover (some charting logic in this but mainly a belief that the EV demand will drive them higher). Have a buy out for Ampol and looking as BSL, CSR, DXS, GMG, GPT and MQG. Re that latter I said none of the big banks did it for me - but I don't regard MQG as a traditional bank.
Where do I see the market going? The XAO is making higher troughs and peaks on the weekly and in a strong uptrend. I'd like to think (despite the challenging times) that it could now rally to around 8000 and long term trend since 2008 suggests a peak of 9000 in 2024 is likely before the next fall into the abyss. Candles suggest the XAO's 4 week losing streak may be turning and the coming week might see the start of another short rally.
Good wishes to all.

GN I wish you all the best in your new abode and trust you will occasionally visit with more of your pearls of wisdom. I have followd you since the old days and will not be quite the same with little input from you
Once again all the best and may your God be kind to you