GOLD stocks gathering momentum

[Sean K]

This V recovery, breaking through several levels of resistance is fun, but not particularly healthy, imo. Would rather see some sideways movement and testing of previous resistance, now support, before heading up. That will inevitably come but the longer these moves go straight up the harder they fall. Next challenge 6630 ish on the XGD.

 

[finicky]

 

[Sean K]

I think he's been reading ASF.

Do you need to change your signature yet finicky? Deeper market crash in 2021? Running out of months...

 

[KevinBB]

Damn! My system is still short one Gold from last week. Not even close to going neutral or long.

Don't know how the short wasn't reversed with that spike a few hours ago. Still hanging in there.

KH

Got stopped out of my gold short a few hours ago. Finally.
Now neutral.
KH

 

[qldfrog]

I think he's been reading ASF.

Do you need to change your signature yet finicky? Deeper market crash in 2021? Running out of months...

A crash is started and nearly finished on 1-2 days..we got a month or so still to go ?
As it is , i think we will be ok 2021.the coming crash, bar Black Swan, China invasion of Taipei,etc could be just inflation realisation it is both a number but also a mindset.once xmas season is over, people exchanging with family and realising inflation is so high, it will creep in and retail will stop investing, moving to nonstock at the first glitch and the ball will start rolling.and no way can the feds in the us raise rates wo collapsing the country so usd will have to fall and stocks as well

 

[Sean K]

A crash is started and nearly finished on 1-2 days..we got a month or so still to go ?

I think they take about a month, so yes, still time. Good luck to all non-holders, including me.

I do wonder how a correction will unfold. Crash, or just a slow decline into a ?.

 

[Sean K]

XGD got held up just below the 6630 resistance mark and taking a well earned break. We now have some minor support levels on the way back down. Ideally for a mid-term uptrend to be established we need it to consolidate and that support to firm up for another leg up. Probably around the blue circle point.

 

[Sean K]

XGD got held up just below the 6630 resistance mark and taking a well earned break. We now have some minor support levels on the way back down. Ideally for a mid-term uptrend to be established we need it to consolidate and that support to firm up for another leg up. Probably around the blue circle point.

Not a big fan of quoting my own posts, but anywho. Looks like that consolidation has occurred as anticipated and desired.

No upward channel starting to form or any decent support levels but if you're a little creative a reverse H&S could be in the making that would be a nice set up for a breakthrough price target around where shown. Maybe I'm dreaming.

Gold stocks do seem to be leading the POG at the moment which is an interesting phenomenon, so if this comes off POG could make it's break north from the large pennant / handle in the 10 year cup which would be extremely bullish.

This basic TA may be moot however, with sentiment in the hands of the Fed and what happens with rates, inflation and general USD currency armageddon theories.

 

[Sean K]

Longer term perspective of the gold stocks and there's a couple bullish things going on, but also the giant scary one still hanging about.

Very positive weekly candle on the way up off some short term consolidation heading towards the 50 d sma and mid term downward trend since mid 20. The bounce in the blue circle looks like a significant bottom now, but it's not over. That scary H&S is still in play until we beat that longer term down trend. Breaking about 7000 will probably equate to a mid-term upward channel we'll clearly see on the 2 year chart that indicated around 6600 as the key short term break point with the target about 7600 on that H&S, which happens to meet some resistance and the right hand shoulder of the longer term scary H&S.

Good day for most goldies today! ?

 

[Sean K]

I think I said 6600 as a key point on breaking H&S neckline and then 6630 also a horizontal resistance line so beating those looks important here. Made it to 6674 intraday. Come on XGD, finish on a high, or at least above 6630!

 

[Sean K]

Finished at 6622.

This couldn't possibly happen, it's too neat. But I can dream...

 

[Sean K]

Well done @finicky calling a bottom 2 months ago. Hope you kept, or took up, more positions in goldies on the way back up. If USD POG heads to the 1900 ish resistance level then I expect the XGD will probably beat it to it's the next major resistance level which will be the late May high of 7620 ish, and the target on the H&S. Major goldies are all pretty much in synch with this pattern, more or less.

Barring any comets hitting the Earth, and all else being equal, should be a good run here. Although, maybe the comet coming will be good for POG also.

 

[rederob]

... maybe the comet coming will be good for POG also.

Contains Cryptonite?

 

[Sean K]

Contains Cryptonite?

Something landed the last couple of days. Realisation of inflation the excuse, perhaps.

I think I'm done with this thread now. Gold stocks aren't really gaining momentum anymore, most have broken up. There's going to be some bumps on the way but in an ideal world the XGD starts another channel heading back to key resistance levels / targets. Expect the likes of NCM, NST and EVN to lead that. Juniors will under/over perform depending on relative value, discoveries, and narrative.

Fingers crossed that comet, or something like it, doesn't mess up these charts.

 

[rederob]

Something landed the last couple of days. Realisation of inflation the excuse, perhaps.

Certainly a welcome trigger. My very long held belief is that gold in the longer term rises commensurate with increasing debt. In the case of the GFC we know POG continued upwards for a few more years, so I think that covid will have a similar but more enduring impact.

I think I'm done with this thread now. Gold stocks aren't really gaining momentum anymore, most have broken up. There's going to be some bumps on the way but in an ideal world the XGD starts another channel heading back to key resistance levels / targets. Expect the likes of NCM, NST and EVN to lead that. Juniors will under/over perform depending on relative value, discoveries, and narrative.

The larger goldies get institutional investors interested and need mega millions to be poured in to gain momentum. My sense is that these bigger investors need a bit more time to see if the current trend is enduring or not. Right now the ingredients for a continuation of trend are in place so I reckon your trend channel is safe. Moreover, we tend to forget how lucrative POG at current levels is to the majors, as we want to context todays price with last year's spectacular high rather than how companies were still in profit at $500/oz less than today.
And yes, the speccies and juniors run on the smell of an oily rag.

Fingers crossed that comet, or something like it, doesn't mess up these charts.

View attachment 132738

As a compete aside, Ramelius taught me the value of holding a really well managed (albeit small) company through the leaner times. It's hard to believe that for many months in 2014 they were trading below 10 cents!

 

[Sean K]

Gold stocks were gathering momentum, but have taken a hit the past week or so and are taking a well deserved break and consolidating nicely.

I previously identified the blue circle as an area of support on another gold thread, but that's gone, which has led me to believe the general break up is over, and needs to be reconsidered.

The XGD has gone as mostly expected but has now broken a couple of important support lines including the 200d ma to now be at the bottom of the new (potential - I've made this up) upward channel. This may be support.

The bottom is still in, until the higher low in early Nov is broken on this chart, imo.

If bugs see this as an opportunity, the XGD could jump back above the 200d ma and back through that key support/resistance level to continue the short term trend up.

 

[Rabbithop]

Just messing around...go for Gold n Oil

 

[againsthegrain]

perfect timing for omicorn to land

 

[Sean K]

perfect timing for omicorn to land

I wonder why they skipped Xi?

 

[againsthegrain]

I wonder why they skipped Xi?

Thought that was the very first one ?