Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Student of Gann]

Crude Oil seems to be following a similar Curve to that of Gold so it will be interesting to observe the directional relationship between the two. Here is a Curve I posted on my website on Nov 16th calling Low which came out one day before the Forecast date followed by an advance into Nov 22nd where Top was indicated which has thus far pulled back from this point after an 8% move up

 

[ducati916]

Tariffs are deflationary for China and inflationary for the US. This was essentially the position in the 1930's with the US in China's position and Europe, particularly Germany in the current US position. That is to say the US was the manufacturing giant and creditor to the world and Germany was the degenerate debtor.

For China, gold is the key tied to commodities priced in CNY.

CNY oil + CNY gold means that if gold rises in CNY it no longer means CNY is collapsing v. gold and therefore USD. It means that gold buys more oil and commodities in China than in London and NYC

This in turn means that London and NYC gold vaults will empty until either USD gold prices rise to stem the flow, as we have been seeing occur or until London and NYC run out of gold, declare force majeure and gold spikes virtually overnight.

Said differently, CNY-denominated oil and commodities with net gold settlement means China will NOT need to massively devalue the CNY v. USD as some believe unless China wants to.

Trading Trump tariffs on China is not shorting CNY but rather buying gold.

This would also seemingly represent the way for China to escape what otherwise seems to be an intractable deflationary trap that does not require bazooka Chinese government stimulus.

The Chinese government has encouraged its citizens for the past 20+ years to buy gold, and Chinese citizens do hold significant gold. As the CNY falls against gold it will increase Chinese consumers’ commodity purchasing power and recapitalize their balance sheets.

This could help China avoid a deflationary collapse which the US suffered as the world’s factory and global creditor in the aforementioned Smoot Hawley (US tariff legislation) analog.

So while there may be a slight Ukraine premium in gold, that is a really minor issue.

Gold is front and centre in the economic war with China, which is just in its first innings. China has been preparing this strategy for decades and signalled their intentions as early as 2013.

The paper gold market cannot exist without control of the physical. The control of the physical is fast shifting East. When it breaks (paper market) it will not break in a controlled way, it will break suddenly and with huge volatility. Usually it breaks at the w/e so no-one really can position for it which just adds to the volatility.



USD dangerously high but;



Bond market seems fine;



Being propped up by Yellen?

Because that is a function of tariffs: a higher USD as USD are not being supplied in trade. All the more reason why China will force gold into the picture.

jog on
duc

 

[Student of Gann]

Nov 28 - 29th may see Minor counter trend Top then down till X

 

[qldfrog]

Nov 28 - 29th may see Minor counter trend Top then down till X

Mr @Student of Gann , sorry to ask but i am confused:
In post #15,638, you mention dec X already, here X again,
Did i miss an X on a graph somewhere?, or X as 10 in roman number
or X for Xmas? Or ?
Genuine question

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Mr @Student of Gann , sorry to ask but i am confused:
In post #15,638, you mention dec X already, here X again,
Did i miss an X on a graph somewhere?, or X as 10 in roman number
or X for Xmas? Or ?
Genuine question

Also Mr. SO Gann's website has been inactive for some time now, 1+ year(s)

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

On the fundamentals affecting Gold we have

• Israel/Hizbolah/Lebanon
• Israel/Iran
• Israel/Gaza-Hamas
• Israel/West Bank
• Ukraine/Russia
• Russia/NATO
• Trump
• Trump/Tariffs
• China/Taiwan
• Decline Europe/UK
• US debt/interest rates/markets
• International markets
• India/China border issues
• N.Korea a long way last. A problem easily fixed with one button pressed.

All seem quite intractable except Ukraine/Russia. Trump may organise a ceasefire, may not. The Israel/Hizbolah deal won't last long imo. Have I left anything out?

gg

 

[houtman]

On the fundamentals affecting Gold we have

• Israel/Hizbolah/Lebanon
• Israel/Iran
• Israel/Gaza-Hamas
• Israel/West Bank
• Ukraine/Russia
• Russia/NATO
• Trump
• Trump/Tariffs
• China/Taiwan
• Decline Europe/UK
• US debt/interest rates/markets
• International markets
• India/China border issues
• N.Korea a long way last. A problem easily fixed with one button pressed.

All seem quite intractable except Ukraine/Russia. Trump may organise a ceasefire, may not. The Israel/Hizbolah deal won't last long imo. Have I left anything out?

gg

The BRICS+ , although reading the Kazan Declaration there is no mention of Gold.

It's about 130 statements, by the 20th statement they were discussing cats, so I'm presuming the smaller members may have worked out who would end up with all the Gold.

Also worth noting that Chinese citizens can't buy Crypto, but can buy Gold.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks all, I'll add or delete as we go.

On the fundamentals affecting Gold we have

• Israel/Hizbolah/Lebanon
• Israel/Iran
• BRICS
• Crypto
• Chinese unable to access Crypto easily
• Israel/Gaza-Hamas
• Israel/West Bank
• Ukraine/Russia
• Russia/NATO
• Trump
• Trump/Tariffs
• China/Taiwan
• Decline Europe/UK
• US debt/interest rates/markets
• International markets
• India/China border issues
• N.Korea a long way last. A problem easily fixed with one button pressed.

 

[finicky]

TheDailyGold: Gold & Silver Remain Near Ground Floor....​

Good Morning!​

Gold broke out from a 13-year cup and handle pattern earlier this year to a new all-time high and advanced to $2800/oz.

Silver broke out from 4-year resistance and recently reached an 11-year high, touching $35/oz.

,However, something does not feel right.

The ongoing secular bull market in US Stocks and the emerging bubble in cryptocurrency have stolen its shine.

In nominal terms, Gold and Silver have made higher highs and are in a bull market.

But in real terms, Gold and Silver have barely moved off the ground floor.

Gold & Silver vs. 60/40 Portfolio​

Gold and Silver have yet to make progress against the conventional investment portfolio (the 60/40 portfolio) in the last 6 years.

They have yet to make a higher high since the secular bear market began at the end of 2011.

Gold ETFs as Percentage of All ETFs​

Near the end of 2011, the share of Gold ETFs against all ETF assets was 8%.

A few months ago, the share was barely 1%.

Gold Backing of the Monetary Base​

The last two secular bull markets in Gold peaked with Gold backing well over 100% of the monetary base.

The legal mandate under the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 was 40% backing.

Backing has increased from an all-time low of 7% a few years ago to 12.4% today. Reaching the 2008 peak of nearly 30% would put the Gold price at almost $6,500/oz.



From The Daily Gold newsletter

 

[Student of Gann]

Yes website was closed last year as I had other issues to focus on so hopefully now things are back to normal again.
Gold may start to move down from this point into X ( concealed date ) where Low is indicated. There are a few price levels to watch and as long as we remain below Nov 25th trend is down.