Gold Price - Where is it heading?

bean · 17 August 2007

kennas said:
Priase for getting what right Bean?

You have continuously said that gold with go up, or gold will go down, or gold will go sideways. Which prediction are you saying you were right on?

Is gold linked to the US Indexes, or not?

If not, does POG go up, or does it go down, therefore taking gold companies with it?

Is it linked to the USD? Or not?

Or, is it the POO, interest rates and inflation figures?

Or, is a combination of a number of factors, which you have not concisely articulated yet?

US Gold Indicies are tied to the market.
The POG and the gold Indicies can move differently
But they will eventually move together.

For example the POG may rise the indicies may not but they will eventually either rise to confirm the rise in the POG or the POG will drop back.
Or you could have Indicies going higher but the POG not.. so again you would either have the POG going higher or the Indicies falling back.

The same thing happens in a down market
However when you get a BEAR market or a market ready to explode.
The US Gold Indicies will be leading the way as they are caught up in the selling and the POG will eventually follow.

Why the other night did I not say 100% the other night because I knew the Indices were going that night but the POG may not follow straight away.

Is this the move I have been waiting for????
Will the POG get to exactly US 540 ???

I do know one thing and this will confuse you
Was the rise in the US Markets going to be the start of a bear market rally???
Or just a one hour rally???
I do not know...but does that look like a BULLISH bottom in GOLD???
And if it wasn't they its down again.....TONIGHT

bean · 17 August 2007

bean said:
I do know one thing and this will confuse you
Was the rise in the US Markets going to be the start of a bear market rally???
Or just a one hour rally???
I do not know...but does that look like a BULLISH bottom in GOLD???
And if it wasn't they its down again.....TONIGHT

Herin lies my confussion
usex xau hui were when I said ready to move 15.16 - 143.12 - 340.74

I expected them to drop BELOW 13.58 - 120.61 - 282.67

They closed today at 13.37 - 125.64 - 300.14
There lows of today were 13.37 - 120.51 - 285.26

So I have one below - one intraday went below - and one not quite.
But I was looking at closing prices being below
So they have not meet my criteria
But are they acting as support??

US markets put in bullish hammers so are they goig to rise?
in my own system a little reading came up, well just a warning that rallies may now be Bear Market rallies so can be short and sharp
But that signal may dissapear if the rally extends a couple of days.

Will I get the Gold Indicies moving further down tonight
I have a feeling yes but I am not 100% sure.
Because I will be going against the trend of those bullish hammers and the US markets will be down as well

BlueDaze · 17 August 2007

In a strategy comment released to clients today, Vancouver based Hahn Investment Stewards & Company, a global asset manager said:

“We can be sure that authorities and central banks will do everything possible to avert a further meltdown. That means quite a few more months of volatile securities and currency markets. At the very minimum, we should expect to see short and sharp recoveries, followed by further declines. All indications to this point suggest that the financial contagion is still spreading.

We also anticipate that the US dollar may rally substantially versus the major currencies, and also the Canadian dollar. (The CAD has already fallen almost 5% against the USD from its July peak.) Actually, we think this has a high probability. This view is quite a shift for us. We have been unsupportive on the US dollar since 2001. While we do not yet suggest that the US dollar is out of its long-term troubles, for an interim period at least ””
perhaps a year or two or longer ”” it is liable to rise sharply.

This trend in turn will have downward implications for commodity prices. Industrial metals markets ”” and, yes, even crude oil prices ”” should continue to moderate in price.”

wavepicker · 17 August 2007

Uncle Festivus said:
A simple question for me is, why not? Why can't it continue down? The basis for your analysis was by way of technical analysis?, yet the word 'chances' is mentioned on the fact that a substantial decline has already taken place. I'm not having a go at you, just wondering on what technical analysis you are basing your assumption that there is little chance of further falls in the $US index. Benny has started throwing money from helicopters, so it's not as if there is still a shortage of the IOU's.

I think the Fed has the $US index right at the goldilocks point where it is starting to have a reasonable impact on the balance of trade etc, but not low enough to cause price inflation for US consumers, so they will fight pretty hard to keep it here, no more, no less.

Back in '87 the $US was the only safe store I assume, but there are a few alternatives these day's so probably not the safe bet it used to be?

Well the foreign currencies getting smashed as I type and the same for precious metals. You still think the USD Index is getting ready to collapse from here Uncle?

I will repeat again what I said when I last conversed with you, "In some cases the fundamentals lag the moves in the market."
I also speak in defence of "Effective TA Techniques" that can help anticipate the probabilities of very such market movements. Please Refer to post # 46 with accompanying chart of the following thread made on the 28th June

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=174806#post174806

>Apocalypto< · 17 August 2007

well enjoy the rate cut gold bugs!

I know I am! living it up with my current FX trades that r on! :jump:

bean · 18 August 2007

bean said:
To those that may have read what I have said regaring correction in Gold at the moment the Interest rate may be ready to be cut in the US at the first available opportunity by the FED.
The next meeting is September the 18th will it be before then and will I be 100% in stock before then.
is now imminent

Was I right!!!!!

bean · 18 August 2007

How can the Fed do what I want

Well alls well for the moment

bean · 18 August 2007

In all this great upward move or savior by the FED
Is they cannot SAVE the markets: (i cannot use enough images but )
The markets are Fcautious:

bean · 18 August 2007

You know what the more each day passes The more right I become
Just my timing is out
But I only use radom numbers and silly cycles

But a short term gain gives more pain

>Apocalypto< · 18 August 2007

bean said:
Was I right!!!!!

Date was wrong Bean. but u called it well done.

don't get to excited yet this could just be a pause till it gets going again,

Long on the US dollar is looking better and better.

see what this rate cut can do,.........aye

bean · 18 August 2007

Please note I am a 100% cash
But hopefully shortlift
A calm before the storm?

SERIOUS

what it does show was the US markets were that far from the brink

How long monday Tuesday before the game is up

The FED are worried

Gains maybe erased in moments

How long will this last I want at least 20% more downside in the Gold Indicies

wavepicker · 18 August 2007

Trade_It said:
Date was wrong Bean. but u called it well done.

don't get to excited yet this could just be a pause till it gets going again,

Long on the US dollar is looking better and better.

see what this rate cut can do,.........aye

Totally agree TI. IMO interest rates are in the early stages of a bull and this merely a retracement

Sean K · 18 August 2007

bean said:
To All those that said ?????? to me.

Well Gold is not doing a Zig or a Zag at the momentView attachment 12378

May I get praise if I am right?????

So, Bean this is not a Zig and Zag, but down? Or is it up. Or is it still zag? For the record?

Sean K · 18 August 2007

Friday7.30 am

bean said:
does that look like a BULLISH bottom in GOLD???

And if it wasn't they its down again.....TONIGHT

Since gold is up, you are calling a bullish bottom on gold from yesterday? For the record.

Sean K · 18 August 2007

bean said:
You know what the more each day passes The more right I become

This is going down in the 'ASF classic quotes of all time.' Along with Chris calling ERN undervalued at $1.10. And like all forcasters, you may be right one day. But which predictions will be right? Which one are you calling for the record? Gold down last night didn't quite work did it.

Sean K · 18 August 2007

Fri 12.45pm

bean said:
The next meeting is September the 18th will it be before then and will I be 100% in stock before then.

Today 1.20am

bean said:
Please note I am a 100% cash

Cash or stock Bean?

I think you meant cash!

Good place to be at the moment, I agree.

I do think I know what you are getting at bean:

1. Indexes tank
2. Gold stocks tank
3. POG tanks
4. USD turns into kindling
5. POG leaps
6. Gold stocks leap.

Is this it?

BlueDaze · 18 August 2007

All Financial Crises Exit Roads Lead To Gold

Don Coxe is long-term bullish on gold. His latest commentary is that "All Financial Crises Exit Roads Lead To Gold".

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0002/code/eventframe.asp

bean · 18 August 2007

kennas said:
I think you meant cash!

Good place to be at the moment, I agree.

I do think I know what you are getting at bean:

1. Indexes tank
2. Gold stocks tank
3. POG tanks
4. USD turns into kindling
5. POG leaps
6. Gold stocks leap.

Is this it?

All the points are right and I am waiting for 5 & 6

Cash...Yes

I don't know yet but I think the move up last night WAS the HIGH for the move.
(Easy if I am right or wrong if monday is up I am wrong.
But if it is down head for the hills especially then if tuesday and wednesday is is up)
The figures I said as support for the Indexes are no longer in play I am now looking at a diifferent cycle Those ones were the lows on the 3rd of October last year and they were brought into play by an intermediate cycle
which signalled the low for the move thursday night. Now this one has issued a signal but the signal should have been issued as the Indicies were falling not rising So it may be marking a high or within one day of the high.
(I know I have now given monday a slight possibility of being the high)
I may be wrong and this rally will last longer??

From last night the FED showed there hand. The market was ready to go into freefall. I thought if the markets had dropped last night I would have been with 100% accuracy saying an 87 style Crash would have happened next week ( Wednesday)
And the low in POG and the Gold Indicies would have occured next friday.

The FED are worried...

bean · 18 August 2007

A short article with a few charts but interesting reading

BERNANKE TO REPLAY
GREENSPAN'S 1987 ROLE?
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/vronsky/2007/0817.html

Shows what happened to the Various Indicies, POG and the US$ when the FED cut rates after the 87 Crash

Sean K · 19 August 2007

bean said:
A short article with a few charts but interesting reading

BERNANKE TO REPLAY
GREENSPAN'S 1987 ROLE?
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/vronsky/2007/0817.html

Shows what happened to the Various Indicies, POG and the US$ when the FED cut rates after the 87 Crash

Hi Bean,

I see that the XAU bottommed and went up and bit after the cut (just 10%), but it looks like gold was just in a solid up trend at that stage and didn't really change trajectory significantly at all. Also, from this point on, gold actually goes into a significant decline in 1988 and continues down for years. See charts.

Aren't you putting this up as evidence gold is going to fly after the rate cut.

Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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