Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[Sean K]

All the points are right and I am waiting for 5 & 6
..

I'm with you here bean. I've been long gold for 3 years (last 15 months hasn't been great ) and am ready to jump on the next up leg.

I wish you'd stop giving specific days and nights for things to happen. You're going to get one right one day, and you'll be a genius!

..............But if it is down head for the hills especially then if tuesday and wednesday is is up).................

.........I thought if the markets had dropped last night I would have been with 100% accuracy saying an 87 style Crash would have happened next week ( Wednesday)......................

............And the low in POG and the Gold Indicies would have occured next friday....

This bit I've bolded is just a silly thing to say bean. You do NOT know this with 100% accuracy AT ALL!

 

[bean]

I'm with you here bean. I've been long gold for 3 years (last 15 months hasn't been great ) and am ready to jump on the next up leg.

I wish you'd stop giving specific days and nights for things to happen. You're going to get one right one day, and you'll be a genius!

This bit I've bolded is just a silly thing to say bean. You do NOT know this with 100% accuracy AT ALL!

US Gold Indicies still have over 30% to drop to the bottom
I did say POG US$ 540 (I don't think it will drop that far)
I thought POS would drop to about US$ 10
The Crash I will see a pattern develop in the Gold Indicies which will show me they a crashing and that will also be showing when the market is Crashing.
Next FED meeting on interest rate september 18Th.
There will be a cut then or before.
Yes POG dropped till 2001. This time the Gold Bug know things are different.
Back then as well we had the large Gold companies hedging the POG which put downward pressure.












Anyway the Great Gold stocks bargain of 2007 is getting very close

 

[Mofra]

Re: All Financial Crises Exit Roads Lead To Gold

Don Coxe is long-term bullish on gold. His latest commentary is that "All Financial Crises Exit Roads Lead To Gold".

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0002/code/eventframe.asp

Cheers for the article, interesting to note the Fed is also playing the "we're bailing out the sub-prime market" excuse - the rate cut could be more beneficial in the MT then the short term in respect to funding housing & market activity.

Either way, the gold bulls must be posting their "USD / Gold inverse relationship" on the walls with glee.

 

[Boyou]

Where are all the gold bulls? Awful quiet on this thread at the moment.

I might re-invigorate it with these tidbits..all grist to the Gold mill.

"Australian Gold Production has Fallen to its Lowest level in 13 Years"

The Australian gold production has fallen to its lowest levels in 13 years an industry survey by Melbourne Australia based consultants Surbiton Associates.

The report by Surbiton Associates shows that Australia's gold production fell 5 percent to 249 metric tons in 2006 from 263 tons in 2005. This is the lowest Australian gold production since 1993.

However, the value of Australian gold production for 2006 has increased almost 30 percent to 6.4 billion Australian Dollars says Surbiton Associates director Sandra Close.


Australian Gold Production 1981 to 2003 Source: Australian Gold Statistics

Australia has now moved to third spot among the world's gold producers. Last year, South Africa, the world's largest gold producer by far, saw its lowest gold production in 84 years. Gold sales dropped to 275 tonnes, down from 297 tonnes in 2005.

Falling global gold production is likely to be a continuing trend that will make this gold bull market very different to the last gold bull market. In the gold bull market of the 1970s there was plenty of gold supply and the gold mining companies were growing their gold production every year as gold demand increased. Today that situation doesn't exist and will result in much higher gold prices in the years ahead.

 

[bean]

Interesting...but I have a feeling Gold or Gold Indicies may be showing the market where to go/direction!!
US futures are up but Gold at the moment down (well 90 cents) but!!!

 

[bean]

Interesting...but I have a feeling Gold or Gold Indicies may be showing the market where to go/direction!!
US futures are up but Gold at the moment down (well 90 cents) but!!!

Markets went red but
Look Gold up $3 brought the market into green...

 

[Sean K]

Re: XAO Analysis

From XAO analysis thread:

I am a Gold Bull
I know which ones to buy and which ones not to.
I have watchlist coming down to my price range.

Care to name these bean? Perhaps put the list in the gold thread, with the prices you are going to buy them at. Cheers.

For the record:

I'm holding LHG and NCM and have for some time - years. (see threads for reasons)

Holding KMN and have added to position during correction. (this is now more a polymetalic play though - see thread)

I will buy NEM tomorrow if the break through $5.00 is confirmed. (see thread)

I'm not planning on selling these in this correction/crash, pending company news. I will add to positions when gold breaks $690 ish, pending company news.

bean?

 

[bean]

I am 100% cash at the moment except for silver bullion.
If I said I am not allowed to what stocks I want to buy and what price.
I am a silver bug first so
MMN I hope under 20 cents
I am a CTO last sold at 41 cents when Gold was US$640
I hope say 30cents
IGR,KMN,CRE? but I really would like some mid tiers who can expand there reserves or may be subject to takeove bids for the next leg up when it begins. I will only invest in max of two gold and two silver stocks. the remaining 20% is uranium or oil stocks

Kennas..did this on 5th May
MMN was .335 A couple of days ago I did not buy as the bottom not in, but MMN dropped to .175

CTO on the 5th May was .39 (its a producer so its price rose, which I traded reach a high on 26th of .525) A couple of days ago drop to .37

 

[Sean K]

Kennas..did this on 5th May
MMN was .335 A couple of days ago I did not buy as the bottom not in, but MMN dropped to .175

CTO on the 5th May was .39 (its a producer so its price rose, which I traded reach a high on 26th of .525) A couple of days ago drop to .37

Thanks bean, sorry I missed that post.

I've held most of those you mentioned but sold out over the past 6 months because I was getting bored and other sectors were going off. Hopefully PMs have their day...

 

[Trembling Hand]

Thought I would jump in here. I have noticed that Silver very often leads Gold up and then down, recently. Maybe for the Three years I have been watching it. And at the moment its looking really poor. I'm keeping an eye on both gold and silver here for a short.

EDIT: Posted the wrong chart

 

[Sean K]

Thought I would jump in here. I have noticed that Silver very often leads Gold up and then down, recently. Maybe for the Three years I have been watching it. And at the moment its looking really poor. I'm keeping an eye on both gold and silver here for a short.

EDIT: Posted the wrong chart

Good chart. I agree. eeeek! I was about to go long on some gold stocks. Aaaaagghhh LOL Best I wait till there's a break one way of the other. NEM is still saying buy to me though, no matter what POG's doing.

 

[moneymajix]

GOLD AND SILVER ANALYSIS
CBGA SALES FIGURES
July Central Bank gold sales total 67 tonnes as Swiss climb in
Sales under the current Central Bank Gold Sales Agreement, which ends on September 26th, are continuing at a high rate which may be a contributing factor towards the seemingly poor gold price performance of late.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Tuesday , 21 Aug 2007

LONDON -

Amidst reports today that the Swiss Central Bank sold no less than 34.1 tonnes of gold during the month of July - and Mineweb's earlier report of the Spanish Central Bank selling 25 tonnes, it is apparent from Central Bank Gold Agreement figures that Agreement signatories sold a total of 67 tonnes of gold during July, with the other 8 tonnes arising from smaller sales by other unspecified Central Banks.

Switzerland announced relatively recently that it planned to sell 250 tonnes of gold by the end of the 2009 sales period, but the level of sales in July exceeded expectations. If it carries on selling at this rate, the Swiss Central Bank will have offloaded its 250 tons by the end of January next year!

In part the high volume of sales in July by the Swiss may be to take advantage of the remaining shortfall of sales under the CBGA so far this year. These have totalled 353 tonnes up until the end of July, leaving the option open to the banks to sell a further 147 tonnes in the remainder of the Agreement which ends on September 26th. This would mean that to sell the full 500 tonnes allowed for under the CBGA, around 74 tonnes a month could be released during this month and next - a total which had been previously been considered unlikely by market followers.

But, with Spain continuing to be a relatively heavy seller, and the Swiss just starting their sales programme, it is possible that fairly close to the full 500 tonnes could be released in this Agreement year.

Overall, even if some of these sales are picked up by other Central Banks which may be building up gold reserves, the level of sales serves to be a dampener on the overall gold market, which may well account for the rise in gold price anticipated by some not having occurred. That gold has held up so well, though, despite the high sales levels should be seen as long term positive for the yellow metal.

http://www.mineweb.net/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=25756&sn=Detail

 

[Sean K]

Please note I am a 100% cash
But hopefully shortlift
A calm before the storm?

How long monday Tuesday before the game is up

Gains maybe erased in moments

How long will this last I want at least 20% more downside in the Gold Indicies

Bean, you really must stop putting time frames on your announcements.

 

[explod]

Bean, it is all US dollar related. Notice Benarke hints at dropping interest rate and the US dollar index weakens, theeeeeen notice gold begins to consolidate and is now moving ever so slowly up. Dollar tonight showing weakness gold is going the other way. As I have said many times before the gold and US index chart are almost a water reflection for the last few years. Paper currency (the fiat promise) losing value-----------Gold a real store of value going up.

A time will come when a liquidation from the stock market will go to gold and not dollars as has just been the case. That time will be soon after the US$ index breaks below that critical support at 80.00

And what a great bargain SRI today. If gold is up more than 5 or $6 overnight, watch that chart tomorrow

In my humble opinion of course.

 

[bean]

Bean, it is all US dollar related. Notice Benarke hints at dropping interest rate and the US dollar index weakens, theeeeeen notice gold begins to consolidate and is now moving ever so slowly up. Dollar tonight showing weakness gold is going the other way. As I have said many times before the gold and US index chart are almost a water reflection for the last few years. Paper currency (the fiat promise) losing value-----------Gold a real store of value going up.

A time will come when a liquidation from the stock market will go to gold and not dollars as has just been the case. That time will be soon after the US$ index breaks below that critical support at 80.00

And what a great bargain SRI today. If gold is up more than 5 or $6 overnight, watch that chart tomorrow

In my humble opinion of course.

I am at the moment waiting to see if a short term top in gold Indicies is tonight? I am looking for a pattern at the moment.

The following article may be improtant as far as far as US$ and POG is concerned


An interesting article here

USFED RATE CUT COMING NEXT
Forget for now the futures market and its indicator of the likelihood of upcoming official rate cuts. Turn to a more powerful market, which is more important than an indicator. The USFed is behind the curve by about a mile and a half. The FedFunds rate target is firm at 5.25% but they did cut the discount rate last week to best bank customers by 50 basis points. This followed emergency Fed Repo actions taken two weeks ago, amounting to around $40 billion in mortgage bond repurchases. What was not explained was two things. First, were only subprime mortgages repo'ed, or some prime mortgage bonds also? Second, were only Wall Street offerings of bonds accepted for repo, in a veiled Wall Street scummy bailout?

The 2-year Treasury Bill yield is below 4.2%, more than 100 basis points lower than the knucklehead desperados at the USFed have their target. Worse, the 3-month TBill yield has fallen well below 4.0% and during an intraweek situation, fell below the 3.0% mark. If one checks the behavior of the USFed over the course of the last twenty years, a discovery will come. They have been very obedient to the short-term bond market. The highly liquid, ultra-short-term 3-month Treasury market indicates 150 basis points in USFed rate cuts are coming, JUST FOR STARTERS!!!

The Charts




The full article
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/willie/willie082307.html

 

[barrett]

Re: All Financial Crises Exit Roads Lead To Gold

Don Coxe is long-term bullish on gold. His latest commentary is that "All Financial Crises Exit Roads Lead To Gold".

http://events.startcast.com/events/199/B0002/code/eventframe.asp

I had a listen to this.. he recently went long gold, and says of the recent correction, "what gold did was very uncharacteristic"... "gold failed to fulfil our enthusiasm for it".. "gold in every single case was the thing you made money on in crises" etc.

I don't know this guy and I don't wish to bag him out.. but this sort of jelly talk on gold has certainly started to pile up heavily at the shallow end of the commentary pool. Based on historical precedent there is probably more weakness in gold to come, in the short to medium term: here is a useful quote from truecontrarian.com:

"If you look back at all of the global economic slowdowns that have occurred since the U.S. dollar was delinked from gold in 1971, they all have one thing that stands out clearly: in the early months of each contraction, the U.S. dollar always rose in price, and by a substantial amount. There is not a single exception to this rule.

You are certain to hear over the next several weeks that "gold is not responding" to the global economic slowdown. Remember that this is pure nonsense--it never "responds" initially, only later on. After everyone else has finally given up on gold for this supposed "lack of response", that will be the time to buy it in earnest--but not before." - Steven Kaplan, 14/8/07

 

[explod]

Re: All Financial Crises Exit Roads Lead To Gold

I had a listen to this.. he recently went long gold, and says of the recent correction, "what gold did was very uncharacteristic"... "gold failed to fulfil our enthusiasm for it".. "gold in every single case was the thing you made money on in crises" etc.

I don't know this guy and I don't wish to bag him out.. but this sort of jelly talk on gold has certainly started to pile up heavily at the shallow end of the commentary pool. Based on historical precedent there is probably more weakness in gold to come, in the short to medium term: here is a useful quote from truecontrarian.com:

"If you look back at all of the global economic slowdowns that have occurred since the U.S. dollar was delinked from gold in 1971, they all have one thing that stands out clearly: in the early months of each contraction, the U.S. dollar always rose in price, and by a substantial amount. There is not a single exception to this rule.

You are certain to hear over the next several weeks that "gold is not responding" to the global economic slowdown. Remember that this is pure nonsense--it never "responds" initially, only later on. After everyone else has finally given up on gold for this supposed "lack of response", that will be the time to buy it in earnest--but not before." - Steven Kaplan, 14/8/07

Good post Barrett, nice to have your input.

Initially in fear the instinct is to liquidate and get back into cash. As the reserve currency the flight back into US dollars gives it support. It is only sometime after the dust settles that some say "hey, dollars are losing value too" and look to other tangibles........bullion et al

 

[explod]

DOLLAR DECLINE PREDICTED
Sub-prime shake-out continues but could be positive for gold price
As the sub-prime fallout continues there is the likelihood that the overall US economy will be adversely affected leading to a fall in interest rates and corresponding decline in dollar value which should be positive for the dollar gold price.

Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Friday , 24 Aug 2007

LONDON -

It is remarkable how interlinked these days the world's financial sector has become. While the US and its institutions will have borne the brunt of the sub-prime lending fiasco, there is no doubt too that others around the world will be scratching to preserve their financial integrity and some, no doubt, may fail to do so creating even more doom and gloom in the financial markets.

The latest to report problems in the market include China's second largest bank, the Bank of China, whose stock fell by over 5 percent yesterday, despite strong profit figures, on news of a reported $9.7 billion exposure to sub-prime loans. This follows on news of problems faced by other Asian banks and some major European ones.

So far, though, there does not appear to have been particularly significant default levels from holders of sub-prime mortgages in the US, but the fear that these will grow as house prices continue to slump seems to have been the principal factor in the financial crisis which has materialised. Confidence is everything in the financial world!

There is also a feeling in the US, most recently expressed by global investment bank Goldman Sachs, that the shakeout will adversely affect the overall US economy which will force the Fed to cut interest rates, which in turn may drive down the value of the dollar assuming European interest rates in particular are not cut at the same time.

If the dollar continues to decline against major world currencies, then the pattern that the dollar gold price moves counter to the world value of the dollar currency should re-boost the gold price momentum which has largely stalled this year, Central Bank sales notwithstanding.

It does seem that the recent high levels of Central Bank sales in the final weeks of this year's Central Bank Gold Agreement have helped mitigate a sharp gold price increase which might have been expected to have resulted from the dollar weakness and market mayhem. It seems unlikely that sales will continue at such a high level come the end of September when this year's CBGA sales quota terminates, which could give a final quarter boost to the metal price. The market had not been anticipating the level of Central Bank sales over the past three months and it has to be positive for gold that the price has remained pretty constant given the high disposal levels absorbed.

 

[explod]

METALS STOCKS
Gold futures score a weekly gain of almost $11
Dollar weakness, oil strength and growing gold demand lift metal's price
By Myra P. Saefong & Polya Lesova, MarketWatch
Last Update: 4:25 PM ET Aug 24, 2007Print E-mail Subscribe to RSS Disable Live Quotes SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures climbed Friday, with a decline in the U.S. dollar against other major currencies, rising gold demand and strength in oil prices helping the precious metal score a gain of almost $11 an ounce for the week.

"Gold's summer sleepy season is coming to an end with the coming of gold's time of seasonal strength and peak demand from India and the Middle East and the Christmas jewelry season in the western world," said Mark O'Byrne, director at GoldandSilverInvestments.com.
Gold for December delivery closed at $677.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday -- the contract's highest closing level since August 15. It was up $9.10 for the session and ended the week $10.70, or 1.6%, higher.
A "fairly hefty decline" in the U.S. dollar, stronger crude oil, a "decent showing" in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and pre-seasonal physical offtake from India, provided support for gold Friday, said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers, in an afternoon email.
"The danger the financial markets are in is not fully appreciated yet, but with the dollar trending lower again, the message will come through soon -- loud and clear," said Julian Phillips, an analyst at GoldForecaster.com. "Last week's events parallel past situations, but none so global or so structural as now." See Commodities Corner for historical view.
In comments emailed Friday, Phillips said "two financial tsunamis" were seen last week, one form emerging assets returning to the dollar, and another from "the U.S. moving out of the dollar and back into the yen.
"Hence the exchange rate was not really noticed," he said. "This was a warning for the future."
And "on the back of what's coming, expect good things for the precious metals," he said.
In the meantime on Friday, traders were likely positioning themselves for the weekend, said David Beahm, a vice president at Blanchard.
He pointed out that one of the largest Chinese banks has declared that it is exposed to subprime mortgages to the tune of over $9 billion. See full story.
"Blanchard is predicting the gold market to stabilize much quicker than the financial markets," he said in emailed comments. "Gold has always been viewed a safe haven asset and investors will flock into gold as the subprime debacle continues."
And "as we move into a period where demand is typically the strongest during the year, gold is positioned very well to break through $700 an ounce," Beahm said.

 

[Sean K]

I am at the moment waiting to see if a short term top in gold Indicies is tonight?

So, top last night, like there was on Monday or Tuesday? Or was that sometime last quarter?