Sean K
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I'm not sure if it's possible, but the day someone replicates a bitcoin from nothing, a lot of people will lose their shirts.
Even the alchemists can't turn lead into gold.
Gold Price - Where is it heading?
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I'm not sure if it's possible, but the day someone replicates a bitcoin from nothing, a lot of people will lose their shirts.
Even the alchemists can't turn lead into gold.
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Well man made diamonds are crashing the market, nothing is impossible..but at what cost?
Sean K
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Crikey! Just googled that and lab grown diamonds are a thing. I must have been living under a rock.
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Serious?
A real thing, you can get a big fat diamond for your better half without being a billionaire or a mafia boss.
Obviously, not a $2 shop tinklet but still, affordable for a unique spark.
Theoretically, It must be possible to create gold from adjacent materials, but will it be stable or make you glow in the night, and the actual cost might be higher than sending a few african or St American kids in a muddy river pit as is the way in many places.
I trust gold will remain valuable.
But never say never, a meteorite exploding overhead could spread tons of it in a few seconds abd annihilate the market.
But less likely imho than a North Korea quantum computer farming the last few BTC in 10 minutes, let alone stealing all keys
Ok, back to the real world
Sdajii
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Creating gold is already possible, but extraordinarily expensive for trivial amounts you'd struggle to even find after making them. It's unlikely there will be any practical way to create gold in the foreseeable future.
A meteorite which delivered enough gold to crash the market is certainly a possibility, but it would do so by destroying the civilisation before anyone bothered to pick up the gold, if there was anyone left.
It's possible that asteroid mining could at some stage destroy the gold market, but I'd gladly bet on it not happening within a timeframe relevant to any investment decisions I might make in the next... well, generation or two.
Diamonds... well, there's a stupid and horrific situation. Gold is stupid and irrational enough, but no one is deliberately dumping gold off the continental shelf to artificially inflate prices, and it's less common for gold nuggets to be cut out of the bellies of slave miners.
Garpal Gumnut
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Making Gold is easy. I refer you to Paracelsus and Francis Bacon.
I tend to prefer Bacon.
gg
I tend to prefer Bacon.
gg
Garpal Gumnut
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It looks as if my prediction for a 1-2-3 reversal for gold is not going to occur and it is rallying higher after the consolidation.
Bitcoin is still in the mid 90 thousands and on the geopolitical side it is just bad guys beating the crap out of each other in Syria, and Russia suffering, So it is good gold is rallying on good news. Israel is consolidating the Golan Heights and Mt. Hermon. There is talk of Israel moving to protect the Druze in Syria but I can't see it happening. If it does gold may go much higher.
gg
Bitcoin is still in the mid 90 thousands and on the geopolitical side it is just bad guys beating the crap out of each other in Syria, and Russia suffering, So it is good gold is rallying on good news. Israel is consolidating the Golan Heights and Mt. Hermon. There is talk of Israel moving to protect the Druze in Syria but I can't see it happening. If it does gold may go much higher.
gg
Sean K
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Looks like good consolidation and it might hold, but I'm still on the fence. 2660 ish looks like the hurdle.
Garpal Gumnut
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I'm back in as I posted before at a price just below that at present in $AUD. I've also got a goodly percentage less in Gold than I had.
I had Gold fever. ( Checks temperature ). There is something about Gold. Beats all other investments hands down I reckon.
gg
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The share of global official gold reserves not stored at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York (FRBNY) and Bank of England (BOE) in London has reached 78% in 2024, from 51% in 1972.
The shift in this ratio appears to be accelerating and can be seen as a proxy for the West’s decline in financial dominance.
Before the U.S. dollar, the pound sterling was the world reserve currency. In the 19th century, a significant part of global commerce was transacted in sterling (backed by gold) and cleared in London. Central banks could redeem British pounds for gold and build their metallic reserves at the vault of the BOE in the most liquid gold market globally: London.
After the Second World War, the dollar officially took over from sterling during the monetary arrangement dubbed “Bretton Woods.” In the aftermath of the war, the U.S. had the largest gold reserves of all countries by far, assuring confidence in the currency issued by the United States.
As trade was conducted primarily in dollars during Bretton Woods—which could be converted into gold at the Fed (acting as an agent for the Treasury)—countries with balance of payment (BOP) surpluses increased their gold reserves at the FRBNY vault. Many would rather own gold than dollars, especially as concerns grew (particularly by the French) that the greenback would be devalued due to America’s BOP deficit.
Chart 1. Before 1940, many European central banks shipped gold to New York in anticipation of the Second World War.
Technically, the U.S. monetary gold is owned by the Treasury; the Federal Reserve itself does not own gold. Foreign central banks and official international organizations store gold at the New York Fed, no individuals or private sector entities. Data by the Federal Reserve System on its “earmarked” (custodial) gold does not reveal which entities make use of the vault.
Total earmarked gold at the FRBNY reached an astronomical high of 12,711 tonnes in 1972. At that point, the BOE’s total gold holdings accounted for 8,364 tonnes.
Since the early 1970s, foreign central banks slowly began withdrawing metal from the Fed’s vault in lower Manhattan. In chart 2, we can see withdrawals accelerated in the early 1990s, which was likely due to selling by European central banks at the time.
The BOE neither owns any gold, but it stores the U.K.’s monetary gold (owned by HM Treasury), foreign official gold reserves, and private gold by bullion banks.
Sadly, the composition of official and private gold at the BOE is unknown. So, in order to get a sense of how much gold official institutions store at the Bank of England, I have relied on research by Ronan Manly and Nick Laird from 2015 and extrapolated the numbers.
Finally, as I have reported in recent months, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) are buying vast amounts of gold under the radar. In the case of the PBoC, it buys extraordinarily large amounts of gold in the London Bullion Market and repatriates immediately, not to risk being denied access to its reserves like Venezuela and Afghanistan.
As far as I can tell, outflows of foreign custodial gold at the Fed and BOE have stabilized in recent years, but there is no question the amount of gold held by the rest of the world within national borders has risen dramatically.
Consequently, the amount of world official gold reserves not stored at the infamous vaults of the FRBNY and BOE has gone up to a historic high of 78%.
Put differently, world official gold reserves (minus the gold owned by the U.S. and U.K.) stored in New York and London have reached a historic low of 22%.
Chart 2. Not included are foreign holdings in smaller Western storage hubs like Switzerland, France, and Canada, for which no data is available.
Chart 3. Gold reserves of the West are primarily of the U.S. and eurozone countries.
Based on calculations of how much Asian central banks keep off the record, my estimate is that non-Western countries (“rest of the world,” or ROW) possess 18,643 tonnes of gold versus 21,470 by the West. Pretty soon, the majority of official gold reserves will be owned by ROW (currently, ROW holds 46%).
Interestingly, the shift in the share of world gold reserves towards ROW is illustrative of global changes in economic and military power. As we are moving towards a more multipolar world, so too are global gold reserves distributed accordingly.
As the saying goes, “Whoever has the gold makes the rules!” Eastern countries will implement rules not in favor of the greenback. They will likely be able to circumvent the dollar by trading in national currencies through Project mBridge and store surpluses in gold.
jog on
duc
The shift in this ratio appears to be accelerating and can be seen as a proxy for the West’s decline in financial dominance.
The Original Buildup of Foreign Gold in New York and London
“Gold is the bedrock of stability for the international monetary system,” wrote former President of the German central bank, Jens Weidmann, in 2019. Not surprisingly, no national currency has ever become the world reserve currency without a substantial amount of precious metal supporting it.Before the U.S. dollar, the pound sterling was the world reserve currency. In the 19th century, a significant part of global commerce was transacted in sterling (backed by gold) and cleared in London. Central banks could redeem British pounds for gold and build their metallic reserves at the vault of the BOE in the most liquid gold market globally: London.
After the Second World War, the dollar officially took over from sterling during the monetary arrangement dubbed “Bretton Woods.” In the aftermath of the war, the U.S. had the largest gold reserves of all countries by far, assuring confidence in the currency issued by the United States.
As trade was conducted primarily in dollars during Bretton Woods—which could be converted into gold at the Fed (acting as an agent for the Treasury)—countries with balance of payment (BOP) surpluses increased their gold reserves at the FRBNY vault. Many would rather own gold than dollars, especially as concerns grew (particularly by the French) that the greenback would be devalued due to America’s BOP deficit.
 |
Technically, the U.S. monetary gold is owned by the Treasury; the Federal Reserve itself does not own gold. Foreign central banks and official international organizations store gold at the New York Fed, no individuals or private sector entities. Data by the Federal Reserve System on its “earmarked” (custodial) gold does not reveal which entities make use of the vault.
Total earmarked gold at the FRBNY reached an astronomical high of 12,711 tonnes in 1972. At that point, the BOE’s total gold holdings accounted for 8,364 tonnes.
The World Starts to Repatriate Its Gold
Countries were pressured by the U.S. not to redeem dollars for gold during Bretton Woods, which de facto ended in 1971. During the demise of Bretton Woods, New York lost some significance as a global gold market to the advantage of London and Zurich.Since the early 1970s, foreign central banks slowly began withdrawing metal from the Fed’s vault in lower Manhattan. In chart 2, we can see withdrawals accelerated in the early 1990s, which was likely due to selling by European central banks at the time.
The BOE neither owns any gold, but it stores the U.K.’s monetary gold (owned by HM Treasury), foreign official gold reserves, and private gold by bullion banks.
Sadly, the composition of official and private gold at the BOE is unknown. So, in order to get a sense of how much gold official institutions store at the Bank of England, I have relied on research by Ronan Manly and Nick Laird from 2015 and extrapolated the numbers.
Finally, as I have reported in recent months, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) and the Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) are buying vast amounts of gold under the radar. In the case of the PBoC, it buys extraordinarily large amounts of gold in the London Bullion Market and repatriates immediately, not to risk being denied access to its reserves like Venezuela and Afghanistan.
As far as I can tell, outflows of foreign custodial gold at the Fed and BOE have stabilized in recent years, but there is no question the amount of gold held by the rest of the world within national borders has risen dramatically.
Consequently, the amount of world official gold reserves not stored at the infamous vaults of the FRBNY and BOE has gone up to a historic high of 78%.
Put differently, world official gold reserves (minus the gold owned by the U.S. and U.K.) stored in New York and London have reached a historic low of 22%.
 |
The West Is Losing Power
Not only is the West losing leverage over countries in the East as they repatriate gold, but non-Western countries are quickly catching up, relative to the West, by accumulating more gold. |
Based on calculations of how much Asian central banks keep off the record, my estimate is that non-Western countries (“rest of the world,” or ROW) possess 18,643 tonnes of gold versus 21,470 by the West. Pretty soon, the majority of official gold reserves will be owned by ROW (currently, ROW holds 46%).
Interestingly, the shift in the share of world gold reserves towards ROW is illustrative of global changes in economic and military power. As we are moving towards a more multipolar world, so too are global gold reserves distributed accordingly.
As the saying goes, “Whoever has the gold makes the rules!” Eastern countries will implement rules not in favor of the greenback. They will likely be able to circumvent the dollar by trading in national currencies through Project mBridge and store surpluses in gold.
jog on
duc
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With the drop in the AU/USD pair last night, gold in AUD is nce more above 4200.
At 4225, its a whisker away from the ATH of 4261 set back in October.
The average price in AUD during the September quarter was around the 3680 mark.
The average price in this quarter is around the 4100 mark.
if you are operating at the cost margin, thats a big kick on.
With the price of oil falling, those O gold miners using a lot of diesel in the operations should be generating bucketloads of cash this quarter.
Mick
At 4225, its a whisker away from the ATH of 4261 set back in October.
The average price in AUD during the September quarter was around the 3680 mark.
The average price in this quarter is around the 4100 mark.
if you are operating at the cost margin, thats a big kick on.
With the price of oil falling, those O gold miners using a lot of diesel in the operations should be generating bucketloads of cash this quarter.
Mick
Garpal Gumnut
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China CB bought some of the Gold sold in November when Trump scared everyone. So the central banks of the BRICS I would imagine would have been doing so as well.
I'm still not convinced Gold is going to continue higher until the early part of the New Year. BRICS are certainly buyers at levels down around $2600 to $2650.
This is all just guesswork on my part.
gg
I'm still not convinced Gold is going to continue higher until the early part of the New Year. BRICS are certainly buyers at levels down around $2600 to $2650.
This is all just guesswork on my part.
gg
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With that sort of credentials, perhaps you should become a financial adviser/guru.
Mick
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Dona Ferentes
Abrió la caja, vio al gatito, y sonrió
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and a low AUD helping here.
Australian dollar took another beating overnight on a report that China was considering allowing a weaker currency next year to offset the prospect of higher tariffs under a second Donald Trump presidency. The $A dropped to a one-year low of US63.34c and was last trading at US63.70c. A break under US63.17c would be the lowest since November 2022..
The $A has shaved off more than 6 per cent his year. Also undermining its appeal is mounting speculation the Reserve Bank will finally start its easing cycle in February.
Sean K
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Gold fever heating up again.
Sean K
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