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Gold Price - Where is it heading?

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as i hear it Powell will be onboard or overboard soon enough

Trump signaled he will not cut Powell's current term short , but i didn't hear anything about a reappointment ( yet ) during Trump's term , so maybe Trump has left that leverage in the back pocket

the major question is .. damage control can Trump do enough to halt the damage ( rather than slow it a lot , that huge debt and some bond-buyers are very cautious now ... )
 
Just a 3 mo. chart of Gold via Kitco.

It looks as if buying when oversold on the RSI may not have been a bad tactic since March/April. I wonder if the good physician @DrBourse could comment on if or how his beloved mashed macd potato indicator saw these opportunities.

Gold atm. doesn't seem to have the momentum I'd like if I were to commit to more PMGOLD @Sean K . Any thoughts Sean?





gg
 

I've been concerned about succumbing to FOMO GG, so my natural thought is to not chase it. But, it's still looking like break out material on all the time frames. I'm vexed. Long term bull, medium term trading, short term cash is king.
 
Hi @

@Garpal Gumnut ....

From all the Indicators there are available for TA, the main ones that I AVOID, are the MACD (in any format), Smoothing, and any version of either the SMA & EMA on anything, or with anything….

Having said that the other TA Indicator that I very seldom use, but tolerate, is the RSI – because every other would be trader uses the various forms of the RSI & the Stochastics, and I don’t ever want to join the ranks of the Lemmings, So being a bit odd myself, I use other Indicators like the CCI, DMI, MFI, Will%R, etc….

So, in answer to your Question Mr Gummnut, I humbly submit my version of your XAUUSD chart….

To summarise, the ST for Gold looks promising, that’s with the CCI, DMI & MFI as Indicators (as shown below)....


The second group of Inds are what I class as Medium Term Indicators, the outlook is a lot less interesting, maybe sideways (as shown below)....


Then there are the Longer Term Inds, this group of Indicators show promise, again maybe sideways (as shown below)....


So how bout that for setting myself up for a few comeback comments & arrows after the exact opposite happens….

Ahh well WTF… (That’s obviously a reference to my Watchlists for Wednesday, Thursday & Friday)….

Lets see whom else is game enough to make their calculations & thoughts public, why should I be the only one on the sacrificial alter…..

Cheers..
DrB....
 
Are we Talking here about GOLD as Cheese / futures ) or GOLD as Chalk /Gold Miners?
ie What are we talking about here? ie: Apples or Oranges?
 
Here is a chart of our Gold Miners

Sailing the Aussie GOLD miners-----------One WEEK at a Time-------------&--------------------One DAY at a Time

I hope it does not confuse the natives
 
DrBourse said:
Lets see whom else is game enough to make their calculations & thoughts public, why should I be the only one on the sacrificial alter…..
Click to expand...
@DrBourse I don't usually put up charts with my indicators on them because (1) I think it's important to analyse the raw price action first together with support & resistance zones, and (2) I use mostly indicators that I created myself to help me glimpse under the hood, so to speak, and get a better idea of what may come next. I do also use some standard indicators with my chosen variables as you do. The Money Flow Index that you use is also one that I like.

I'll put myself out there, just this once, and stand beside you exposed to the crowd. The brown indicator is one of my home made jobs.

The monthly chart indicates a current uptrend with momentum easing back. Divergence on the MFI is not great but the price structure looks very bullish. The long sideways pattern from 2020-2023 then up and sideways.


The weekly gives a closer look at the price structure with price running up through March and early April and then holding in a sideways channel, this is bullish. It's normal for momentum to fall off in a sideways channel but there is still that big picture divergence on the MFI to keep in mind. The uptrend is still in place on this time frame.


The short term outlook from the daily chart shows an uptrend bias now forming in the sideways channel with the moving averages and the big picture momentum is holding on the MFI but as yet my indicator has not shown a turn to the upside, but it is making higher lows so I'm waiting to see if it will turn before the market breaks down through the MA's.
 


Gold fundamentally is in a generational, secular bull market. That being said, if you want to 'trade' the squiggles, currently it is a buy.

The 'great' buying opportunities are probably gone for investment purposes currently. The next pullback will likely be higher.



That being said, the bull is still a calf and has a lot of growth remaining.

There will likely be face peeling volatility as the US currently is still fighting the price as this still remains a proxy war between West and East with UST hegemony at stake.

It is important to differentiate UST hegemony from USD. USD will continue to be used, obviously, but it is the free ride offered by UST hegemony that is being challenged by China/Russia.

The US have already lost.

Gold/Oil needs a gold price of +/- $13,000oz

Oil and energy (NG, nuclear, coal) are the base layer supporting all money. No-one has nuclear currently. NG is viable, coal works but is pretty dirty.

Forget the 'green' rubbish. Green requires NIRP and ZIRP to function.

Personally from an investment, miners are too risky. Trading, sure. If trading, you want the most leveraged miners that you can find LOL.

@DrBourse re. 'Technicals' and your dislike of MACD etc:

If you are trading in a technical manner, you want to join price as 'everyone else' joins price. You don't want to be fighting price. Therefore by using the commonly used 'indicators' that is exactly what you are attempting to do. Which is sensible.

Technical trading is not 'contrarian' it is the very definition of joining the herd. The herd is not, in this context, a pejorative description.



jog on
duc
 
ducati916 said:
Technical trading is not 'contrarian' it is the very definition of joining the herd.
Click to expand...
@ducati916 I have to disagree with this comment, any type of trading is generally not successful when joining the herd. There is the smart money and the the dumb money, these are labels used for professional and retail traders, generally the herd is a another name used to describe to bulk of retail traders that lose money in the markets.
 


Price is set at the margin and represents the imbalance between supply/demand.

Trends higher/lower represent that marginal price continuing in a predominant direction.

Now of course, that marginal price trend is set by net dollars and not necessarily net participants. Volume measures shares/contracts/etc traded, again, not net participants.

Ignoring for the moment pump & dump and other scams...

Trends by definition attract and create an imbalance between supply/demand.

Can retail observe that trend? Of course.
Can they join that trend? Of course.

The 'herd' constitutes the excess demand over supply in an upward trending instrument.

I accept we don't know exactly in the US whether that is due to a small number of really big players or many smaller players due to a Market Maker middle man.

In Australia, you can actually see the depth of the market. Of course that can change pretty quickly, but it gives you a sense of what sort of capital could be deployed.

Trend trading requires joining the 'herd'.

Can you make money trading against the herd?
Of course you can. However this requires a bit more than rudimentary knowledge of markets and instruments.

In addition to that more specialised knowledge there is (generally) a requirement for a larger capital base. This requirement can be a differentiating factor between 'retail' and 'institutional'. However, the two do not necessarily go hand-in-hand.

jog on
duc
 
I'm just catching up with US markets, lotsa bears out there overnight our time. All entities including Gold are affected.

Gold chart has a bit to go on an A-B-C reversal pattern. If that holds true looking at $USD 2325 before it moves higher again.




gg
 
@ducati916 thank you for explaining that you were not using the term 'herd' in any way that may diminish the skill of a successful technical analysis trader. To be fair, generally TA traders use a bit of fundamentals and fundamental traders use a bit of TA.
 
From Money Metals

As Bloombergs pointed out,
It becomes another step towards removing USD from non US economies.
As the USD rises, it makes life difficult for African economies.
By preserving whatever USD foreign reserves they have and diversifying into gold using their own currency, it takes pressure offf those same reserves.
For those of us keen on the African gold miners, it might be an interesting scenario where the African governments demand a portion of gold produced be sold to the government in local currency.
It then provides those companies with local currency to pay workers, tax etc.
Mick
 
Thanks Mick @mullokintyre

I am not as rosy eyed as Bloomberg on the chances of any African nation this century ever being able to have a governance structure to control their internal Gold market. As you pointed out a good percentage and in Uganda's case up to 90% of gold is extracted by small and artisanal miners (ASM).

Although mainly factual with little fake news, Bloomberg tends to a centre left bias and follows the UN position on Africa in most matters i.e. African nations given a chance would have honest rulers and their peoples of many tribes would then enjoy the fruits of their blessed lands and live peacefully with each other. This as I'm sure you would agree is far from the situation on that continent and has never been.

Given the choice of $USD or local currency any ASM digging for gold would take $USD although many are so poor they have no choice. The middle-men and leaders deal in $USD only to fund weapons and the baubles of the rich.

There is a Gold Plan in Uganda, Nigeria, South Sudan and Tanzania. It involves the repatriation of overseas held gold and local currency imposition on gold trading. Given that war knows no currency and the calibre of the leaders there I cannot see this ever being a threat to the USA. In reality most gold goes to the strong man's muscle and family. Ask the Mrs Mugabe's.

Finally, and to it's shame the US would foment trouble in any country that dared to threaten it's dollar dominance. They would particularly target a poor country with grafting and stupid leaders. This about includes all African countries. To be fair to the US many of the present leaders deserve intervention.

gg
 
Having lived and worked in Africa, I would tend to agree with some of those sentiments.
There is usually some pretty good reasons so many of these countries are third world countries, nd will continue to do so.
There are some exceptions, but not many.
Notwithstanding that, there will be some flow of gold, artisan or otherwise, to the rulers and/or CB's of these countries.

Mick
 
Some gold history:

Source: https://mailchi.mp/clarmond/a-delirium-of-trillions?e=891989e4d9

Under the tower of the Toledo Cathedral stands a 2 metre high ostensorium made of jewels, 183kg of sliver and 83kg of gold. The gold is special, it is the first gold from the Americas, the gold of Christopher Columbus. This golden cord, soaked in death and disease, ties Toledo, the seat of the Primate of Spain, with America the seat of the current Primate of Credit - the Federal Reserve.

Over the next century, after arrival of this gold, the Spanish Crown established the first global empire stretching from Europe to the Americas to Asia (the Philippines are named after Philip II), and also led the counter-reformation. This global empire and the war in Europe required funding and the Spanish Crown issued long term debt called ‘juros’ collateralised against the general tax credit of the Crown. These juros were in turn then used as collateral for ‘asientos’ - short term credit. Our modern financial system (from 2021) is funded in the same way; we take US Treasuries (backed by US taxes) and use these as collateral in ‘SOFR’ (the Secured Overnight Funding Rate) to price short term monies.

Past lenders, such as the Fuggers and Genoese, priced the cost of interest rates on all outstanding juros as a multiple of ordinary revenue. In our modern setting it would be a 9x multiple - $4tr. of US tax revenues on $36tr. of outstanding US treasury debt. But there was a catch, the direct revenues to the Spanish Crown, such as the 20% tax on the foreign sliver/gold values was excluded. Again in our modern parlance it would be excluding social security/medicare taxes of 15.3% in the multiple calculation.

The Spanish Crown suffered four ‘soft defaults’ and it was only the silver revenue that kept the credit flowing. Silver became a key payment currency for trade and it was delivered from the seemingly inexhaustible Potosi mine in Peru that produced 60% of all global silver for six decades. This American silver made its way to China via the ‘Manila Galleon’ route established by the monk Andres de Urdanata who discovered the Black Current, the north flowing warm Pacific current from Manila to Acapulco.; American silver flowed from Acapulco to Manila in return for Chinese exports of all kinds of goods. The Chinese needed silver to pay local taxes under the ‘single whip law’ that replaced rice, grain or labour tax. It was Chinese goods for American money…a very modern outcome.

And there was an additional arbitrage in the units of exchange of silver and gold by region: 6 units of silver to 1 units of gold in Ming China, 8-1 in Mughal India, and 12-1 in Europe. Bankers in Europe would swap 6 ounces of American silver for 1 ounce Chinese gold and bring this gold to Amsterdam to receive 12 ounces of silver and do it all over again (China hoarded silver and Europe hoarded gold). Spanish ‘pieces of 8’, so beloved of pirates, became global money (the Potosi mint logo is actually a dollar sign). Global trade, prices and assets boomed. Spain was a world power and it was all built on its Crown collateralised debt.

This is our modern finance system, our SOFR…we have placed the Crown (government) liabilities at the centre of finance, and they must grow ceaselessly, alongside assets. The Fed, by replacing unsecured LIBOR collateral with Secured Treasury (SOFR) Collateral has exposed itself to the same weaknesses as the Spanish Crown…the weakness of needing elevated taxation to maintain borrowing multiples. Instead of reducing risk, the Fed has increased the inability to maintain empire and hence its desperate and endless desire to cut interest rates in order to reduce debt maintenance costs.

Spanish juros sputtered as silver mining and taxation slowed, the empire could not be maintained, the Spanish Empire contracted. By then new entrants, the Dutch and English picked up the credit and collateral baton, establishing of Bank of England and Bank of Amsterdam, with gold as key collateral and not juros. But Spain’s collateral remnant can still be viewed in the tower of silver and gold in Toledo Cathedral. Our tower of SOFR leaves only trillions of digits housed in the US Treasury.

See you later in the week - Mustafa


jog on
duc
 
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