Gold Price - Where is it heading?

[rcw1]

i imagine the first tranche of gold/silver confiscation would be oblige vaults ( like the Perth Mint ) to surrender clients holdings to the central money pit ( Treasury ) much like they did in WW2 whether they reimburse with paper/digital certificates remains to be seen ,

safety deposit boxes in banks and other places might easily be next , along with a ban on legally trading the physical

would the Government go from door-to-door with search-teams , i guess that would be the death of 'fair elections ' also but would they do it

teach the grandson WHERE to dig holes , some holes look less interesting than others ( wink )

Bernard Cribbins Hole In The Ground

Bernard Cribbins cracking song Hole In The Ground, Proper British this, Enjoy!

yewtu.be

think back since 2019 and how many unthinkable things have now come to pass in less than 3 short years

Very clever divs4ever, hadn't seen Bernard Cribbins Hole in Ground before. Reckon in a couple of centuries time, when they find the lad in the bower hat, probably argue how he met his demise ... We would know better
Have a very nice evening.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[divs4ever]

Bernard is better known for his song ' Right Said Fred '

having gone a few hours of shifting houses for folks , rental exit-cleans and 'hand-over cleans '



have my own yarn about shifting a piano ( pro-tip buy an electronic keyboard , even if you own the house you are moving to )

 

[ducati916]

Hold physical.



jog on
duc

 

[Sean K]

Hold physical.

View attachment 150607

jog on
duc

I ? round bottoms.

 

[rcw1]

Good morning

Cited this passage in an AFR article, Commodity market returns next year to rival 2021 boom published 15/12/22 at 4.15pm.

Goldman expects gold prices to reach $US1950 an ounce on a 12-month horizon due to a stabilisation of exchange-traded fund holdings, China’s reopening and central banks buying the precious metal. If the Fed is forced to cut interest rates in response to a US recession, gold prices could surge 20 per cent to 30 per cent, the broker said.

Anyways, this is the link:

Commodity market returns next year to rival 2021 boom

Goldman Sachs believes the set-up for commodity markets is one of the most bullish since it first called another supercycle in October 2020.

www.afr.com

Have a safe and happy Christmas and prosperous new year.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[DaveTrade]

I think that GLD could come down a bit from here before turning up.

 

[ducati916]

Rising interest rates in the US are starting to break stuff:





Which like the housing defaults in 2008 is deflationary. Now the loans (obviously) are much smaller. However, the US housing market is again falling and picking up speed.



Bank balance sheets will (should) record rising NPL's. An issue because they are (in the US) leveraged 11:1 (Japan & Europe 20:1). That leverage magnifies the NPLs.

This is the least of the Fed's issues, but it is the one that will catch media attention. The Fed will have to pivot far sooner than later. Then gold and silver 10X.

jog on
duc

 

[InsvestoBoy]

Quite an interesting close last night

View attachment 150575

Testing the previous monthly high with no rejection yet. The monthly close for April/closing swing high is also just ahead.

Promising, but my major concern now would be Mondays Asian open session as price will likely try to squeeze shorts above 2680 on low liquidity. These squeezes can get a fair bit of range as stops get run before supply comes back in as London opens.

In my experience watching a lot of these Monday squeezes in many markets, they haven't resolved well after the initial move.

No squeeze!

Todays session high is also the opening price, meaning not a single offer in the global OTC book was lifted.

In a sense, I am happy about this.

 

[ducati916]

Japan + China dumping USTs:



The implications are pretty obvious, ignoring China for the moment as they hold 30,000T of gold now:

(a) Japan sells UST to prop up the Yen as Japan is an energy importer;
(b) Japan no longer holds UST as a Reserve (buys less);
(c) US Treasury deficits are rising even faster than projected (what a shock);
(d) US Treasury needs to sell more UST;
(e) There are no buyer's other than the Fed and captive client commercial banks;
(f) Gradually bigger players realise that inflation is secular and start buying gold, mimicking the Central Banks.

jog on
duc

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks duc @ducati916 .

Your fundamental burrowing and explanation is always clear and useful.

gg

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

I've had a look at the 10 year Gold chart and now believe we are at the beginning of a Wave 3 which will take out $US 2000 and possibly even $US 3000 at the least and much more over the next six months and much, much more on to the three year mark.

The double top in 2020 and 2022 is a modified Wave 2 , a, b, a, c. and there is now enough momentum to commence the Wave 3.



So from 2018 to 2020 there was a classical Wave 1 from 1200 to 2000. That is now completed by the modified Wave 2. In EW theory this type of Wave 2 is bullish for the subsequent Wave 3 which is often the longest wave.

Disclosure : I'm biased and have some very, very big bets in various accounts and holes on Long Gold.

If you ain't in, you can't win.

If I lose I'll still have my family, my mates and enough cigar money to keep me comfortable while I regain my losses.

If I win I'll have a Bentley Hybrid Mulliner which unfortunately only does a top speed of 170 mph which is about 270 kph. Then one has to compromise for the good of the planet and the coppers in Western Queensland and the NT on the long stretches have less of a sense of humour than when I bought my Arnage back in the late 90's.

gg

 

[Telamelo]

Gold price shot up +2% overnight to US$1,828 .. equates to AUD$2,724

P.S. disclosure holding BC8, TBA, WAF, RMS and EVN

 

[ducati916]

Big picture:



Lots of fundamental support buying dips.

jog on
duc

 

[DaveTrade]

A Story About Japan, the U.S. Dollar, & Gold

December 21, 2022 | Michael Reilly

Investors woke up to a major macro surprise Tuesday morning when the Bank of Japan announced a de-facto rate hike by allowing the yield on their 10-Year Treasury to reach .50%.

Although the Bank of Japan (BOJ) didn’t actually raise rates, the net result is the same.

What the BOJ did was allow the 10-Year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) trading band to widen by 25 bps (from 25 to 50 bps).

For decades, the BOJ has employed a monetary policy of low rates to encourage economic growth. They did so by capping the yield on JGBs at 25 bps (.25%).

So yesterday’s news is a major policy shift for Japan.

And it’s a really big deal at a macro level.

As far back as the 1990s, Japanese investors have had to look beyond their own borders for higher-yielding investments as an alternative to low-yielding JGB.

They often turned to U.S. Treasuries as a safe haven that offered higher net yields. As of July 2022, Japanese investors were the largest holders of U.S. Treasuries in the world, accumulating over $1 trillion.

Up until now, it made sense for Japanese investors to convert yen to dollars and invest in higher-yielding U.S. Treasuries. However, yesterday’s policy shift by the BOJ is a game changer.

With the increase in yields at home, Japanese investors can now expect to be better rewarded by investing at home vs. looking to foreign markets.

The potential Intermarket implications are enormous.

The most obvious is the potential shift in demand away from U.S. Treasuries. If there’s less demand for Treasuries then bond prices fall… and when bond prices fall, yields rise.

Beyond that, I’m considering the impact from a currency perspective. Japan’s policy shift means a stronger Yen and a weaker U.S. Dollar (USD).

The USD is already well off its October peak, losing strength vs. other world currencies, so Japan’s policy change may just fuel a further exodus out of the USD.

In just the last three months, the British pound is up over 6.5% and the Euro has gained almost 6% vs. the USD, while the Yen has gained nearly 8%.



And while I’ve beat the drum all year that a falling dollar is historically a tailwind for stocks, there’s another beneficiary of a falling USD.

Precious metals… specifically that shiny metal – Gold!

Gold is another store of value and is often considered an alternative currency.

We can see the Intermarket relationship between the U.S Dollar and Gold here (HINT: It’s an inverse relationship).



The Formula is simple: Dollar rises = Gold falls. Dollar falls = Gold rises.

And in case you don’t track the USD as closely as we do, it peaked in October 2022.



As of this writing, USD sits at 103.97. What may be most interesting about that is it’s the same area that acted as resistance in 1999, 2016, and again in 2020.

Perhaps the most important question we should be asking is: Will prior resistance become new support (referred to as Polarity) or will the Dollar continue its descent?

If the USD can rebound, then Gold may have run its course. However, if the USD breaks down from here, Gold looks very interesting.

During the three-month slide in the USD (using DXY as our proxy) there is a nearly 12% performance differential with the advantage to Gold.

Gold is up +6.72%, while the Dollar is down -5.23%.



Hard to argue the reversal in the greenback since October has put a new charge in Gold.

Take a look at the performance of some of these Gold and Gold miner ETFs during the USD’s (DXY) recent slide.

DXY is down 5.23%, while the SPDR Gold ETF (GLD) has gained 6.72%, the VanEck Gold miners ETF (GDX) has jumped over 15% (15.25%) and Junior Gold Miners ETF (SGDJ) has gained 12.61%.



And here’s Newmont Mining (NEM) up over 27% off its recent lows.



I’m not making a buy recommendation on Newmont, I’m illustrating NUM’s recent gains to further emphasize the Intermarket relationship between the USD and Gold-related stocks and commodities.

Just to sum things up – here’s what investors want to remember…

The shift in Japanese monetary policy will have major impacts on both Government Bonds (price and yield) and the currencies markets.

If the USD feels further downward pressure as the result of Japan’s new monetary policy, its descent will create opportunities in precious metals – Gold being a major beneficiary.

So there you have it: Continue to do your homework and invest accordingly (and wisely).



Happy Holidays & Prosperous New Year,

 

[Sean K]

Just teasing us?

View attachment 150437

It did tease us but kept trying to break through $1800. Looks pretty positive at the moment that that resistance could turn into support. But, it's been so volatile who knows.

 

[Sean K]

Geesh! I'm getting whiplash.

 

[Sean K]

AUD gold price has had a great run the past few months since Jul and Sep lows. Up 200 bucks. Seems to be heading towards ATHs around $2800s. Must be good for unhedged Australian producers.

6mth, 2yr, 5yr.

 

[ducati916]

AllStarCharts turns bullish.

File too large to load. If you want a copy PM me. It is 40pgs of charts and commentary on gold/silver etc.

jog on
duc

 

[DaveTrade]

Looking at the GLD chart I would still like to see a bit of volume come in before I jump back into this market;

 

[Telamelo]

Gold looks bullish at US$1,846 .. equates to AUD$2,730